Analysis of Residence Sales from Data by Form for ZIP Code 78704
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This document analyzes residential sales data from ZIP code 78704 in Austin, Texas. It finds that price is related to factors like year built, size, and form (condo, single family home, etc.). Specifically: - Price and price per square foot increase with size and year built for all residence forms. - Condos, duplexes, and townhouses from the 1960s-70s have lower prices than newer developments. - For residences under $400K, price is strongly tied to year built and size. - The analysis recommends further study and policies to increase affordable housing options.
Analysis of Residence Sales from Data by Form for ZIP Code 78704
- 1. Analysis of Residence Sales Data by Form ZIP Code 78704 Paul Schumann
- 2. Data Variables (2015) ● Form (Condo, Single Family, Duplex, Townhouse) ● Address ● MLS# ● Price ● Square Feet ● Price per Square Foot ● Year Built
- 3. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 3 Summary ● Data provided by Ed Wendler Jr. ● Analysis by Paul Schumann using: – Watson Analytics* – Open Calc ● Price is a function of year built. ● Average price for condos, duplexes and townhouses are almost the same, and lower than single family. – However, averages are misleading. – Price is a function of year built, but also a function of size of the residence. ● Price is exponentially related to size of residence for all forms, with a lower limit of ~$200K. * www.ibm.com/analytics/watson-analytics/us-en/
- 4. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 4 Summary (continued) ● Price is increasing for all forms built after 1960. ● Size of residence is increasing with year built and there is little differentiation in size by form for modern construction. ● Price per square foot is also and function of time built, form and size of residence. ● Average price per square foot is essentially the same for condos, duplexes and townhouses and higher for single family residences. – However, averages are misleading because of the dependence on size of residence. ● For residences priced lower than $400K: – Price and price per square foot are strongly related to year built and size of residence. – Condos built in the 1960s and 1970s are now selling for less (and less per square foot) than townhouses and duplexes, modern condos, duplexes and townhouses are all selling for nearly the same price and price per square foot.
- 5. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 5 Conclusions ● Given the existing market conditions in 78704 together with contextual factors such as transportation and prevailing construction costs, standards and technology, affordability cannot be practically achieved through density increases using newly constructed condos, duplexes and townhouses (without financial incentives). Size (square feet) Price* Income Required** Percent of Median Income*** 1,000 $350,000 $108,000 169% 857 $300,000 $92,000 144% 714 $250,000 $77,000 120% 571 $200,000 $61,000 95% 429 $150,000 $46,000 72% * Based on average price per square foot currently ($350) for residences less than $400,000 ** Calculator.net, using approximately payments equal to 30% of income, 2.4% IR, 30 year, 10% down payment, no other debt *** Using median income of $64,000 Reference: http://www.calculator.net/house- affordability-calculator.html Note: Price per square foot is probably not a constant over this range of sizes. It will probably increase for smaller sizes.
- 6. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 6 Conclusions (continued) ● Price per square foot is a function of year built (age), form (single family, condo,duplex, townhouse), and size (square feet) ● Price is a function of price per square foot, size (square feet) and year built (age).
- 7. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 7 Recommendations ● Perform this type of analysis on enough ZIP codes in Austin to satisfy statistical significance ● Investigate and recommend financial incentive programs – Developer – Residence owner – Residence buyer ● Investigate and recommend actions to utilize existing residences that have aged ● Investigate and recommend new construction practices, standards and technologies to lower cost per square foot – Manufactured – Modular – Kit – Volunteered construction
- 8. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 8 Recommendations (continued) ● Investigate and recommend polices and standards for mini homes (tiny, micro, small) and mini home villages(with and without shared services). ● Develop analytic relationships between variables, and multi dimensional displays of data.
- 9. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 9 Price Analysis (1882 - 2015) Note: All the graphs appearing in this form came from Watson Analytics. I had to darken the background to make the numbers visible.
- 10. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 10 Price (1882 - 2015) <$200K $200K- $400K $400K-$600K $600K-$800K $800K-$1M $1M-$1.2M $1.2M-$1.4M $1.4M-$1.6M $1.6M-$1.8M $1.8M-$2M $2M-$2.2M $2.2M-$2.4M $2.4M-$2.6M $2.6M-$2.8M $2.8M-$3M >$3M 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 78704 SF Townhouse Duplex Condo Price NumberofHouses 1,740 1,727 2,325 1,054
- 11. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 11 Condo Price (1960 - 2015) 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 $0 $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500,000 $600,000 $700,000 $800,000 Condo Price Linear (Price) Price Predict Price Cal Year Built Price
- 12. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 12 Duplex Price (1960 - 2015) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 $0 $200,000 $400,000 $600,000 $800,000 $1,000,000 Duplex Price Price Cal Linear (Price Cal) Price Predict Year Price
- 13. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 13 All Forms (< $2M) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 2000000 f(x) = 216954.09 exp( 0 x ) 78704 Square Feet Price
- 14. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 14 Price and Square Feet by Form
- 15. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 15 All Forms (<= $400K) 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 $300,000 $350,000 $400,000 $450,000 78704 Condo SF Duplex Townhouse Square Feet Price
- 16. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 16 Price per Square Foot (1882 - 2015)
- 17. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 17 Price per Square Foot (1882 - 2015) $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 78704 SF Townhouse Condo Duplex Price per Sq Ft NumberofHouses
- 18. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 18 All Forms (1882 - 2015) Form Price (average) Price/Sq Ft (average) Condo $369K $350 Duplex $561K $324 SF $1,045K $466 Townhouse $549K $318
- 19. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 19 Condo (1960 - 2015) 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 Condo $/Ft. Linear ($/Ft.) $/Ft Predict $/Ft Cal Year PriceperSq.Ft.
- 20. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 20 Duplex (1960-2015) 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 $300 $350 $400 $450 Duplex Sq. Ft. Linear (Sq. Ft.) $/Ft Cal $/Ft Predict Year PriceperSqFt
- 21. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 21 Low Price (<$400K) and Year Built by Form
- 22. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 22 Low Price Square Feet and Year Built by Form
- 23. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 23 Low Price per Square Foot and Square Feet by Year Built
- 24. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 24 Low Price per Square Foot vs. Square Feet 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 78704 Low Priced $/Ft. Linear ($/Ft.) Square Feet PriceperSquareFoot
- 25. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 25 Low Price per Square Feet and Square Feet by Form 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 78704 Low Priced Condo Duplex SF Townhouse Square Feet PriceperSquareFoot
- 26. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 26 Low Price Square Feet by Decade Built 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 78704 Low Priced Decade SquareFeet(Avg)
- 27. April 9, 2016 Paul Schumann 27 Low Price Price per Square Foot by Decade Built 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 78704 Low Priced Decade PriceperSquareFoot(Avg)