Approach Presentation Hyperlinks 05292007

Wojtek Mozdyniewicz F-35 Structural Design Lockheed Martin May-2007 CHALLENGES OF THE BETTER, FASTER, CHEAPER PHILOSOPHY OF AERONAUTICAL DESIGN

The dominant emphasis during the Cold War (1950 – 1985) was on the Performance of systems rather than on time or cost to develop and sustain the systems. By the 1990s, metrics related to cost and schedule of aerospace systems were troubling. With an industry facing reduced government investment and global competition in both commercial and military markets. The need for improvement was evident to all enterprise leaders. The call was for systems to be developed Better, Faster, Cheaper from beginning. Need for Improvement

Examples of Planes under Philosophy of Performance Driven Development F-111 Video B-52 Video SU-35 Video F16 vs SU27 F-4 Video F-16 Video B2 . . . . . . .

Speed of sound created barrier of PERFORMANCE DRIVEN DESIGN. F-14 TOMCAT left F-18 HORNET below

A380 Landing F35 I-st flight F35 IInd I-st flight Mirage 2000 3.27 A380 Cross Wind Land B2 Marvels F-4 Video Examples of Planes under Philosophy of Better, Faster, Cheaper,

A380 BETTER, FASTER, CHEAPER 3D VIEW

Trends in cost and development time Plot which were first introduced in the late 1960s of the unit cost of US tactical aircraft versus years showed an extrapolated crossing of the cost of a single aircraft with the total DoD budget in the middle of the 21st century. Although there has been considerable attention given to reducing the cost of new tactical aircraft, it has proven difficult to realize. The best curve fit indicates cost increases with the fourth power of the development time. Full Text

Full Text Value “ value” provides a useful framework for engineering in the Better, Faster, Cheaper (BFC) era. Value has a growing awareness of the literature and concepts, including the field of Value Engineering that was an outgrowth of WWII propulsion engineers. Value is a measure of worth of a specific product or service by a customer, and is a function of (1) the product’s usefulness in satisfying a customer need (2) the relative importance of the need being satisfied, (3) the availability of the product

Value Definitions functional relationships need to be defined by the customer for each product or system. These relationships would comprise specific metrics with weightings to indicate customer utility functions and normalizations for consistency. Performance function, fp · Vehicle performance (range-payload, speed, maneuver parameters) · Combat performance (lethality, survivability, store capability) · Quality, reliability, maintainability, upgradability · System compatibility (ATC, airport infrastructure, mission anagement) · Environmental (Noise, emissions, total environmental impact) Full Text

Risk Risk management, another area of fruitful research in the Better, Faster, Cheaper era. In the early years of the Cold War, customers were willing to take considerable risk as national security was seriously threatened. By the mid 60s, the tolerance for risk started to diminish due to public accountability both for fiscal reasons and the consumer rights movements. Now society is very risk-averse for fields like aeronautics. In a modern aeronautical program, a single significant failure can doom the entire program, particularly if it is not managed well.

Lean Program (IMVP) identified a new industrial paradigm they called “Lean”, emerging from the Japanese automobile producers. in particular, Toyota’s Lean production is replacing mass production. throughout many industries including aerospace - an industry that has been characterized prior to 1990 as a craft production system with a mass production mentality is turning to Lean. Lean is focussed on two meta principles: (1) waste minimization and (2) responsiveness to change. Or stated in other words, focusing on adding value and flexibility. Lean is responsible in large part for the recovery of the US automotive industry from the desperate situation of the 1970s.

For Example; Lean findings and implementation Impressive progress has been made in development and manufacturing of aerospace systems with the application of lean over the last decade. A list of examples contributed by LAI members in late 1998 [16] is given in the appendix. A few specific examples are included to illustrate findings and application at sub system levels. A big challenge is to optimize the mix of sub process improvements to achieve system level, or bottom line, improvements. A particularly stellar example in this regard is the C-17 program that has taken $100M of cost out of each aircraft, partly due to implementation of lean practices . Figure 7 shows the cumulative results of applying a number of lean practices to design and production of a forward fuselage section. Compared to an earlier product, the application of lean led to an effective learning curve shift of 9 units and a 48% reduction in labor hours once learning was stabilized.

2.1 Trends in cost and development time Perhaps the first person to call national attention to the fateful trend of increasing costs for aircraft was Norm Augustine [1]. His plot (which he first introduced in the late 1960s) of the unit cost of US tactical aircraft versus years showed an extrapolated crossing of the cost of a single aircraft with the total DoD budget in the middle of the 21st century. Although there has been considerable attention given to reducing the cost of new tactical aircraft, it has proven difficult to realize. “Augustine’s Crossing” remains a major concern. McNutt reported in 1999 [2] that the time required to develop all major DoD systems, including aircraft, increased by 80% in the thirty years from 1965 to 1994 as shown in Figure 1.

McNutt also reported a correlation between the cost and the time of development for such systems. Although there is considerable scatter in the data, the best curve fit indicates cost increases with the fourth power of the development time. Clearly development time is a major variable to consider. One might argue that the root cause for these time increases is growing system complexity. However, development time for commercial systems of comparable complexity has been reduced during this same period. For example, the Boeing 777 was developed and fielded from 1990-1995. Beyond complexity, other likely causes include a wide variety of inefficiencies in acquisition, design, engineering and manufacturing practices and processes for development cost and time of embedded software in aerospace systems. aeronautical systems.

An indicator of the evolving industry dynamics is the number of major US aerospace companies as shown in Figure 4, which includes all aerospace products, not just aircraft. From 1908 to about 1959, with the exception of the depression years, more companies entered the field than exited. From 1959 to the present the trends are the opposite. There was a steep decline from 1960 to 1969, followed by a long plateau from 1969 to 1992. The post Cold-War mergers and acquisitions left a vastly different industrial base at the end of the decade. Similar dynamics have influenced the European industries, but with time shifted effects. The first wave of consolidation at the national level started earlier, and the current period of international consolidations lagged due to the more complex political considerations. The shape of the Figure 4 curve follows a classic pattern of product evolution exhibited by many industries producing assembled products, as studied and reported by Utterback [6].

3 Value “ Value” is a word that is common in the business literature and vernacular, and even in some quarters of engineering. It is certainly common to each of us individually. Over the past few years, LAI research has found that “ value” provides a useful framework for engineering in the Better, Faster, Cheaper (BFC) era. In fact, it will be shown that BFC can be recast as a value metric. The authors are not experts in value, but have a growing awareness of the literature and concepts, including the field of Value Engineering that was an outgrowth of WWII propulsion engineers. Value is a measure of worth of a specific product or service by a customer, and is a function of (1) the product’s usefulness in satisfying a customer need, (2) the relative importance of the need being satisfied, (3) the availability of the product

“ A system offering best life-cycle value is defined as a system introduced at the right time and right price which delivers best value in mission effectiveness, performance, affordability and sustainability, and retains these advantages throughout its life.” The emphasis of this extended definition is to consider the total lifecycle, which is central to aerospace systems that have long lifetimes and considerable lifecycle operational costs. Research is currently underway to develop a framework for BLV. Best Lifecycle Value can elevate the thinking of aeronautical engineers beyond “Higher, Faster, Farther” or “Better, Faster, Cheaper” to an abstraction that embraces both and provides a framework for future challenges.

3.2 Elements of Value From the above discussion, it is apparent that value is a multidimensional attribute, and the definition in the aeronautical context is still emerging. One might assume a functional relationship as: Value = fp ( performance) / fc(cost) · ft(time) Improved performance (Better), lower cost (Cheaper), and shorter times (Faster).

This definition of value is a variant on the one used by Value Engineers who don’t include the time function. The functional relationships need to be defined by the customer for each product or system. These relationships would comprise specific metrics with weightings to indicate customer utility functions and normalizations for consistency. Some examples of elements that might be in these value metrics are given for illustration. These are not exhaustive, but illustrate the large number of possible factors that might enter a value analysis. Performance function, fp · Vehicle performance (range-payload, speed, maneuver parameters) · Combat performance (lethality, survivability, store capability) · Ilities (Quality, reliability, maintainability, upgradability) · System compatibility (ATC, airport infrastructure, mission anagement) · Environmental (Noise, emissions, total environmental impact)

References: [1] Augustine, N. Augustine’s Laws. 6th edition. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Reston, VA, 1997 [2] McNutt, R. “Reducing DoD Product Development Time: The Role of the Schedule Development Process”. MIT Ph.D. Thesis, Jan 1999. [3] Menendez, J. "The Software Factory: Integrating CASE Technologies to Improve Productivity." LAI Report 96-02, Jul 1996. [4] Hernandez, C. "Intellectual Capital White Paper." The California Engineering Foundation, Dec 7, 1999. [5] Drezner, J., Smith, G., Horgan, L., Rogers, C. and Schmidt, R. "Maintaining Future Military Aircraft Design Capability." RAND Report R-4199F, 1992 [6] Utterback, J. Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation . Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA, 1996. [7] Chase, J., Darot, J., Evans, A., Fernandes, P., Markish, J., Nuffort, M., Speller, T., “The Business Case for the Very Large Aircraft”, AIAA Papar 2001-0589, Reno, NV, Jan 2001

[8] Liebeck, R.H., Page, M.A., Rawdon, B.K., “ Blended-Wing-Body Subsonic Commercial Transport”, AIAA-98-0438, [9] Slack, R. "The Application of Lean Principles to the Military Aerospace Product Development Process." MIT SM Thesis, Dec 1998. [10] Fredriksson, B. "Holistic system engineering in product development", The SAAB-SCANIA GRIFFIN . Nov 1994, pp. 23-31. [11] Fabrycky, W. Life Cycle Costs and Economics . Prentice Hall, N.J. 1991. [12] Warmkessel, J. "Learning to Think Lean." INCOSE Mid-Atlantic Regional Conference, April 5, 2000. [13] Womack, J, Jones, D and Roos, D. The Machine That Changed The World . Rawson, 1990. [14] Womack, J and Jones, D. Lean Thinking . Simon &Schuster, 1996.

[15] Weiss, S, Murman, E and Roos. D. "The Air Force and Industry Think Lean." Aerospace America , May 1996, pp32-38. [16] "Benefits of Implementing Lean Practices and the Impact of the Lean Aerospace Initiative in the Defense Aerospace Industry and Government Agencies." LAI Whitepaper, January 1999. http://lean.mit.edu/public/pubnews/pubnews.html [17] Ippolito, B and Murman, E. "Improving the Software Upgrade Value Stream." LAI Monograph, expected publication July 2000. [18] Hoppes, J. "Lean Manufacturing Practices in the Defense Aircraft Industry." MIT SM Thesis, May 1995

Approach Presentation Hyperlinks 05292007

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