Impacts of a Changing Climate on Animal Agriculture
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The document discusses the impacts of climate change on animal agriculture, focusing on future temperature and precipitation predictions in the U.S. It highlights challenges such as increased heat stress on livestock and the unpredictability of rainfall, while also noting opportunities for market growth and improved management strategies. Supported by USDA funding, the project aims to enhance national extension capacity in addressing these climate-related issues in animal agriculture.
Impacts of a Changing Climate on Animal Agriculture
- 1. 1 A n i m a l A g r i c u l t u r e & C l i m a t e C h a n g e Developing National Extension Capacity to Address Issues Related to Animal Agriculture and Climate Change Livestock And Poultry Environmental Learning CenterThis project was supported by Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant No. 2011-67003-30206 from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture. Impacts of a Changing Climate on Animal Agriculture Pam Knox, University of Georgia Agricultural Climatologist pknox@uga.edu
- 2. Outline 1. Trends in temperature and precipitation across the US 2. Predicting future climate: possibilities and problems 3. Most reliable predictions of future climate 4. Impacts of future climate on livestock and farm management 5. Challenges and opportunities for livestock farmers in the future
- 4. Review of Present Climate Trends:
- 6. Review of Present Climate Trends: US Temperature http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us WA CO TX NY GA
- 7. Review of Present Climate Trends: Global Temperature
- 8. Review of Present Climate Trends:
- 9. Review of Present Climate Trends: Precipitation WA CO NY GA TX
- 11. Review of Present Climate Trends: Global Precipitation
- 12. How to Predict Future Climate • Continuation of present trends • Oscillations • General circulation model (GCM) uses energy balance to calculate future climate
- 13. How to Predict Climate You can predict climate by predicting trends, but that depends on things continuing the same way they have in the past. Not always a good assumption! Instead, climatologists use climate models to simulate the future climate based on physics and predictions of future CO2 and other emissions.
- 14. Climate 101: Energy Balance Energy in – Energy out = Change in temperature Energy in > Energy out Increasing temperature Energy in > Energy out Decreasing temperature
- 15. Climate 101: Energy Balance
- 16. Climate Models
- 18. Global Climate Models A model has to have a way to account for all the process in the atmosphere-ocean system To use a computer, the information has to be divided into individual boxes or grids which are all connected.
- 19. Problems with Models • Coarse resolution leaves out mountains, Great Lakes, alters local conditions like coastlines • Simplification processes make rainfall less believable since most of it happens in sub- gridscale processes like thunderstorms • They are not very good at predicting current climate, making them less believable • No El Niño, hurricanes
- 20. Weather vs. Climate Models Weather models are designed to predict detailed hourly weather information for up to 7 days across a continent. Emphasis: short term, individual storm evolution Climate models are designed to predict multi-year climate conditions across the entire globe. Emphasis: long-term, seasonal to multi-year average climate conditions
- 21. Changes in Atmospheric Composition
- 22. Models can separate out CO2 Effects Models can be used to separate out the effects of individual factors to see what effect each factor has on the temperature trend.
- 23. Scenario Modeling Modelers use scenarios of various projections of changing CO2, changing energy efficiency, etc. to produce a series of graphs giving a range of expected outcomes. Observations don’t always agree with predictions. So which is right?
- 24. Predicted Trends in Temperature Across the United States, temperatures are predicted to increase over the next 100 years, but the amount of warming predicted depends on the particular model used. http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/education/
- 26. Predicted Trends in Precipitation http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/education/ Precipitation across the US is harder for the models to predict, and some models show increased precipitation while others show drying or no trend. Some datasets indicate that rainfall has become more intense with longer dry spells in between.
- 28. Projected Change in Precipitation over next 100 Years
- 29. Impacts of Changing Climate on Livestock and Poultry • Warmer temperatures would increase growing degree days for forage and crops but also weeds and insect pests and diseases. • Warmer temperatures, both daytime and nighttime, would increase heat stress on livestock and increase the need for and the costs of cooling. • Warmer temperatures will decrease heating costs in winter.
- 30. Impacts of Changing Climate on Livestock and Poultry • Warmer temperatures will increase evaporation from farm ponds, lakes and reservoirs, which could affect water availability and affect the ability to irrigate. • Power generation from coal-burning and nuclear plants as well as hydropower from dams all depend on availability of water and power prices could be negatively affected by warmer temperatures.
- 31. Impacts of Changing Climate on Livestock and Poultry • Uncertainty of rainfall predictions makes it hard to determine what to expect in the future, especially since there is already a lot of natural variability in rainfall patterns by location and season. • Higher intensity rainfall will increase erosion and runoff from farm fields and could increase localized flash flooding in storms.
- 32. Impacts of Changing Climate on Livestock and Poultry • Longer dry spells, coupled with warmer temperatures, will increase the likelihood of drought and will reduce average stream flows. • Seasonal changes in precipitation could affect pollination and harvesting of cereal crops.
- 33. What does the Future Hold? Challenges • Warmer temperatures increase diseases and pests • More stress on livestock • More potential for drought • More extremes • Market uncertainty • Economic costs of becoming resilient (for example, irrigation or power sources) • Changing tastes and demographics Opportunities • Population growth means potential for market growth • Parts of the US will see increased growing season and more rainfall • Other parts of the world will also undergo climate change, leading to expanded markets • Smart management can improve budget while also taking advantage of market incentives
- 34. For More Information Or contact me at: Pam Knox 706-310-3467 pknox@uga.edu
- 35. Livestock And Poultry Environmental Learning Center For a full list of references cited in this presentation, please visit: www.animalagclimatechange.org This project was supported by Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant No. 2011-67003-30206 from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture. Developing National Extension Capacity to Address Issues Related to Animal Agriculture and Climate Change A n i m a l A g r i c u l t u r e & C l i m a t e C h a n g e Developing National Extension Capacity to Address Issues Related to Animal Agriculture and Climate Change