Assessing Needs of Technologies: Lessons from China
- 1. Assessing Needs of Technologies: Lessons from China Ji Zou Renmin University of China Liyan Li China National Development and Reform Comm ission Arnoma Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand June 26-29, 2007
- 2. Contents ā¢ Matching circumstances in China ā¢ Strategies for TNA
- 3. Matching Circumstances in China ā¢ Significant imbalance of economic development over different parts of the territory, population groups, and industrial sectors (most advanced and most underdeveloped) ā¢ Diversity of potential technology needs: based on diversified economic sectors, income level/capital power, market demands, human resources, etc.
- 4. Strategies for Need Assessment ā¢ In an integrative manner (globally and locally environmental, economic, energy, and social consideration); ā¢ Consultation with technology experts; ā¢ With a larger sample for survey or broad involvement of stakeholders; and ā¢ Repeated and dynamic process: several rounds.
- 5. Main Elements for the Exercise ā¢ Establish working team: NDRC supported by universities and research institutes ā¢ Develop criteria for assessment ā¢ Identify list of candidate technologies ā¢ Identify list of experts as questionnaire sample ā¢ Communication with the sample experts ā¢ Consultation with stakeholders from industries and the public ā¢ Consultation with different departments of national and local government to interact with the countryās strategies and policies ā¢ Methodology for data and information processing: e.g., Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), synthesis of opinions; brain storming, etc.
- 6. Assessment Process ā¢ Establish interagency working team ā¢ Set up criteria for assessment ā¢ Gather and compile relevant information and data from different sources ā¢ Design questionnaire and consultation meetings and identify experts for survey ā¢ Hold scoping meeting ā¢ Determine priorities of technology needs by series of techniques for assessment: ā e.g., Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with equal weights for different items of criteria
- 7. Assessment Criteria (1) Root Objectives: ā¢ Global climate protection ā¢ Local sustainable development: improvement of local environmental quality; economic development; and social equity.
- 8. Assessment Criteria (2) Elements of the criteria ā¢ Environmental and resources concern: global and local ā¢ Technological concern ā¢ Economic concern ā¢ Social concern
- 9. Assessment Criteria (3) Environmental and resource Concerns ā¢ Resource availability/advantages ā¢ Mitigation: emission reduction against basel ine/BAU emission level and carbon sink incr ease ā GHGs mitigation; ā Improvement of local environmental quality ā¢ Adaptation ā Risk assessment and management and plannin g ā Specific technologies in various areas
- 10. Assessment Criteria (4) Technological Concerns: Mature degree of technologies ā¢ Function reliability of technologies; ā¢ Cost of technology application; ā¢ Matching local environment: e.g., resource inputs, weather and geographic conditions, human capital, other enabling environment; ā¢ Market penetration of technology application; and ā¢ Easiness of wider use of technology in terms of technical know-how, transaction cost, and cultural acceptance.
- 11. Assessment Criteria (5) Economic Concerns ā¢ Internal Return Rate (IRR) ā¢ Payback period ā¢ Mitigation and adaptation costs ā¢ Impacts on competitiveness power (dependency, lock-in, comparative advantage in international trade)
- 12. Assessment Criteria (6) Social Concerns ā¢ Broader links with other economic sectors and population groups ā¢ Employment and poverty alleviation (substitution over manpower)
- 13. Priority Areas for mitigation ā¢ Industrial boilers ā¢ District central heating and power cogeneration (CHP) ā¢ Industrial waste heat and gas recovery in coal-mining, steel and cement sectors ā¢ Oil saving and switching to bio-fuel; ā¢ Electric motors ā¢ Efficient buildings
- 14. Priority Area for mitigation (Contād) ā¢ Green lighting ā¢ Energy saving in the public facilities (air conditioning, heating, and lighting in shopping mall, office buildings, museum, entertainment/sport facilitiesā¦) ā¢ System optimization: streamlined design, retrofit and sound management ā¢ Setting up energy saving monitoring and energy saving service system (ESCO, etc)
- 15. Priority Areas for Adaptation ā¢ Systematic observation of climate and weather changes; ā¢ Impact, risk and vulnerability assessment; ā¢ Early warning/forecasting system for extreme weather events; ā¢ Water collection and water-saving irrigation; ā¢ Crop and tree seed development and transformation to fit changing climate
- 16. Candidate Technologies (1) 28 technologies are selected as candidates for assessment. The covering categories are as follows: ā¢ Clean coal and power generation (Ultra supercritical, IGCC, etc); ā¢ Motor technologies ā fuel economy: engine, vehicle mass reduction, gearing; ā hybrid power; ā electric vehicle technologies ā¢ Metallurgy technologies; ā¢ Coal-bed methane recovery; Continued
- 17. Candidate Technologies (2) ā¢ Cement technologies; ā¢ Biomass technologies; ā¢ Key technologies for wind-powered generation (material, control techā¦); ā¢ Solar heating; ā¢ Solar Photovoltaic cell; continued
- 18. Candidate Technologies (3) ā¢ Fuel cell; ā¢ Control technologies related to energy efficiency, such as frequency conversion; ā¢ Amorphous transformer manufacturing; ā¢ Harmless waste-burned generation ā¢ Risk assessment and management technologies on extreme weather events; ā¢ Modeling and forecasting technologies on extreme weather events; and ā¢ Technologies on systematic optimization of water resource management
- 19. Problems in the Exercise (1) ā¢ Identifying the right experts to be in the survey sample; ā¢ Determination the appropriate scale of survey sample; ā¢ Knowledge limitation of experts on technologies employed in different sectors and fields (in case of overall integrative assessment); Continued
- 20. Problems in the Exercise (2) ā¢ Debate on incomparable indicators in developing assessment criteria (different weight over different. ā¢ Failure in consistency test for significant amount of experts in pilot survey ā¢ Low returning rate of questionnaires: awareness, weak incentives, etc. ā¢ Update list of candidate technologies to be assessed: multi-round assessment
- 21. Challenge How to link and coordinate the needs at levels of projects, companies, sectors, regions, and the whole country? How to address the dynamics of technology changes and market changes?
- 22. Thank you for your attention Comments are welcome! zouji@ruc.edu.cn lily@ccchina.gov.cn