Transitioning to Net-Zero Carbon Emissions in Taiwan: A Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Clean Energy Technology Development
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This document outlines a multi-dimensional analysis of clean energy technology development aimed at achieving net-zero carbon emissions in Taiwan by 2050, as announced by President Tsai Ing-wen. It details the methodology, assessment of various technologies, and the results of a comprehensive evaluation involving multiple stakeholders and expert groups. The study emphasizes the importance of technology innovations and provides recommendations for prioritizing and deploying key technologies to meet Taiwan's net-zero goals.
Transitioning to Net-Zero Carbon Emissions in Taiwan: A Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Clean Energy Technology Development
- 1. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 Transitioning to Net-Zero Carbon Emissions in Taiwan: A Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Clean Energy Technology Development Presenter Ya-Hsuan Chiu Associate Researcher Green Energy & Environment Research Lab, ITRI 1 2023.06.13 Authors: Ya-hsuan Chiu, Meng-ying Lee, Pei-ling Wen, Jing-wei Kuo 2023 International Energy Workshop
- 2. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 Introduction Methodology Results and Conclusion 2 Outline
- 3. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 • Over 140 countries has declared their net-zero emission targets • November 2020, Taiwan’s Legislature requested the Environmental Protection Administration to deliver Taiwan’s national net-zero pathway and scenario analysis • April 22nd 2021, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen announced goal of net-zero by 2050 3 Introduction Net-Zero Pathway Task Force Energy System Decarbonization Industry and Energy Efficiency Vehicle Electrification Carbon Negative contributed to ⁄ 2 3 of carbon emissions in Taiwan in 2020 Policy Background (Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economics Affairs) (Bureau of Industry, Ministry of Economics Affairs) (Ministry of Transportation) (Ministry of Science and Technology) Five Working Groups Governance (Environmental Protection Administration)
- 4. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 4 Procedure for Decarbonization Energy WG Introduction Policy Background
- 5. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 5 Introduction • IEA (2021) Net-zero by 2050 report: • “The path to net‐zero emissions requires immediate and massive deployment of all clean and efficient energy technologies” • “In 2050, almost half the reductions come from technologies that are currently at the demonstration or prototype phase.” • IEA (2020) Energy Technology Perspective: • Database for countries when performing scenario analysis for net-zero target. • Reviewed over 400 clean energy technologies across supply- and demand- side • Assessed their Technology Readiness Level, developments, goals and significance to NZ Energy planning from the perspective of technologies
- 6. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 • Learning from other countries: South Korea, 2050 Carbon Neutral Strategy; Australia, Technology Investment Roadmap Discussion Paper • Key strategies for the process 1. Technology-oriented: reviewed long-term feasible carbon reduction technologies and strategies, rather than focus on existing technologies. 2. Multi-dimension assessment: Readiness and industrial development taken into consideration. Discussed various aspects of technology. 3. Hierarchical discussion structure: • Technology assessment teams handled technical details • technical review committee set strategic directions 4. Participatory approach since early stage: external experts and stakeholders involved 6 Shaping technology pathways through discussion Introduction
- 7. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 7 Methodology Framework of the multi-dimensional analysis 4-steps to establish a pathway considering the deployment of available and new technologies
- 8. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 8 • Design procedure and scope • Review assessment results and technologies screening • Set the deployment plan of key technologies • Evaluate technology properties, comparative advantage, carbon abatement performance • Develop pathways for key technologies Energy Technology Review Committee 8 Technology Assessment Teams Renewables Power System Innovative Energy Solar Wind Geo- thermal Ocean Energy Bioenergy Hydrogen System Integration Energy Storage Energy System Decarbonization Working Group Methodology Net-Zero Pathway Task Force • Government reps. and public energy utilities • Academia • Academia, industry: specific technology • Competent authorities for the technology development • R&D thinktanks • Stakeholders: industrial associations and NGOs Composition and function of the working group WHO MISSION
- 9. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 9 Methodology Composition and function of the working group • Three rounds of discussion and ~20 participants for each meeting for every technology team • March to September 2021, over 50 meetings completed with the Energy Technology Review Committee and the Technology Assessment Teams
- 10. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 Technology Readiness Level (TRL) Comparative advantage 10 Methodology Assessment of technology properties (Step 2-1) Current maturity stage of a technology in global markets from stage of concept, prototype, demonstration, to adoption. (score: 1 to 11) Advantages of developing domestic industry considering current status of domestic supply chain, skilled labor, R&D capabilities, and natural resources in Taiwan. (score: 1 to 5)
- 11. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 11 Methodology Calculation of carbon abatement performance (Step 2-2) Input Output Calculation Yearly carbon abatement volume of a technology in the given scenario compared to BaU (unit: ton) Carbon abatement potential Per-ton Abatement Cost Average cost for reducing one ton of CO2e of a technology in the given scenario compared to BaU (unit: $/ton)
- 12. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 12 Methodology Calculation of carbon abatement performance (Step 2-2) • Carbon abatement potential and per-ton abatement cost were estimated in two scenarios for 2050 • mainly differ in: availability of land, penetration rate, efficiency and cost Progressive scenario • Progressive technology development • Practical considering the feasibility of deployment • Technology breakthrough occurs • Only limited by physical/ resource/ environmental conditions Breakthrough scenario
- 13. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 Based on the results of four indicators for each technology (abatement potential, cost, TRL and comparative advantage), while considering critical issues for electricity system (e.g., stability and flexibility), this study highlighted 4 types of key technology categories. 13 Methodology Priority abatement technologies Power generation technologies with high capacity factor Technologies with comparative advantage Supporting technologies • Weighted score: 75% for potential and 25% for cost • The first 2/3 ranked technologies & abatement potential > 1 million tons in 2050 • Potential installed capacity > 1GW in 2050 & yearly capacity factor higher than 0.6 • Technologies score higher than 3.5 in comparative advantage • Technologies related to power system integration, energy storage, and hydrogen production/transport /storage Categorization principles of key technologies (Step3)
- 14. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 Methodology Application of Taiwan TIMES model (Step 4) 14 Taiwan TIMES model 2020-2050 66 inter-annual timeslices Demand-side assumptions: • Trends of industrial transformation, electrification, economic growth were set to obtain the annual electricity demand and load curve. Supply-side assumptions: 1. Capacity potential and deployment criteria (installed capacity limits, capacity factors, efficiencies, lifetime and costs for renewable energies) 2. Technologies in category 2 and 3 were prioritized 3. Additional cost for power system integration 4. Commercialization timeframe for new technologies (hydrogen/ammonia co-firing, CCS in new gas-fired power plants) and decommission plan for current generators 5. Fuel supply constraints (Hydrogen, carbon neutral LNG imports) To establish the long-term net-zero pathway, feedback and data obtained from the expert groups were converted into parameters and constraints, and fully applied in Taiwan TIMES model (The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System). Times model is a bottom-up, technology-rich, dynamic, and linear programming optimization model
- 15. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 15 Result Clean energy technologies list for Taiwan Based on IEA’s clean energy technology database, 55 technologies feasible for Taiwan were listed. Note: TRL 9-11: mature technology TRL 5-8: technology about to be mature TRL 1-4: immature technology
- 16. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for the technologies in 2050 16 Result • The abatement performance of each technology in 2050 in Progressive scenario and Breakthrough scenario is estimated and shown in the MACC graphs. In the graphs, the X-axis shows the abatement volume of a technology in the year 2050, and the Y-axis gives the marginal abatement cost. 56 28 23 23 negative: cost-efficient large abatement volume
- 17. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 Visualization of Multi-dimensional analysis (1/2) 17 Result • Each bubble represents a technology that varies in four dimensions: TRL (The x-axis), abatement cost (the y-axis), abatement potential (size of the bubbles), and comparative advantage (colors of the bubbles). Progressive Scenario Breakthrough Scenario
- 18. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 18 Result 3. Hydrogen fueled gas turbine ● High abatement potential, cost is close to mature renewables. ● Rely on import. 4. Fixed-bottom offshore wind ● High abatement potential, low cost, mature. ● Domestic industry still lack behind. 2. Silicon tandem PV ● Low TRL. ● Complete domestic industry chain, requires investment in R&D. 1. Ocean current ● Costly, low TRL. ● Abundant marine resource and R&D capacity. 1 2 4 3 Visualization of Multi-dimensional analysis (2/2) Breakthrough Scenario Technology Readiness Level
- 19. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 Policy recommendations for key technology categories 19 Result Priority Abatement Technologies High Capacity Factor Technologies Technologies with Comparative Advantage Supporting Technologies Long-term deployment plans, investment in related software and hardware Increase composition to maintain power system stability, plan for necessary infrastructures Encourage technology breakthroughs in manufacturing / R&D, assist deployment in global market Deployment roadmaps for the supporting infrastructure and technologies to keep up with the net-zero progress TRL>9: Fixed-bottom offshore wind, conventional crystalline silicon PV TRL<8: Floating offshore wind, hydrogen-fueled gas turbine, ocean current power TRL>9: Biomass-based power plants TRL<8: Ocean current, hydrogen-fueled gas turbine, enhanced geothermal power TRL>9: Conventional crystalline silicon PV, grid digitalization, lithium-ion battery storage TRL<8: Biofuel power generators or boilers, marine energy, silicon tandem PV, hydrogen fuel cell TRL>9: Grid digitalization, renewable energy forecasting, pumped storage, lithium-ion battery storage, alkaline electrolysis for hydrogen production, NH3 transport TRL<8: FACTS, dynamic line rating, compressed-air energy storage, redox flow battery, PEM for hydrogen production, hydrogen transport in natural gas pipelines
- 20. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 20 Result Net-zero pathway for electricity sector • The 2050 net-zero pathway for electricity sector • based on the results from the TIMES model • adjustments considering practical issues (e.g., challenges from high renewable penetration rate, availability of CCS and carbon-neutral LNG volume).
- 21. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 21 Conclusion • This study designed a multi-dimensional assessment mechanism that evaluated the potential development and characteristics of 55 clean energy technologies within the 2050 net-zero timeframe. • By launching a series of scientific assessment and review meetings and applying energy modelling, we could provide more solid technology-based perspectives for future development planning toward net-zero emissions target. • Future works: • Tracking progress of working group • Stakeholder engagement
- 22. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 22 Acknowledgements: 1. The work was financially supported by the “Energy Economic Model and Strategy Simulation and Assessment” project (110-A0102) from the Bureau of Energy, Ministry of Economic Affairs, Taiwan. 2. The authors would like to thank the experts from Green Energy and Environment Research Laboratories of ITRI for the assistance of analysis in the process: Hom-Ti Lee, Ming-Shan Jeng, Hou-Peng Wan, Chih-Wen Liu, Fu-Ming Lin, Chong-Jie Huang, Tung-Po Hsieh, Chih-Wei Yen, Yun-Yuan Chang, Shih-Sheng Hsu, Wen-Yang Hsu, Wen-Chi Chang, Yin-Lung Han, Bo- Heng Lee, Wen-Sheng Chang, Cheng-Hsien Shen, Chien-Hsuan Yeh, Wen-Chang Lu, Tzu-Yueh Yang, Pei-Fang Liang, Shu-Wei Liu, Chang-Chung Yang, Sheng-Cheng Chiu, Tzu-Yar Liu, Ming-Lung Hung, Chia-Yeh Hung, Hsiu-Chuan Lin, Yun-Chu Chen. Thank you Ya-hsuan Chiu chiu.yahsuan@itri.org.tw
- 27. ©ITRI. 工業技術研究院著作 27 Methodology Marginal Abatement Cost Curve, MACC Calculation of carbon abatement performance (Step 2-2)