Backcasting introduction jaco quist 12th march 2014
- 1. 1Challenge the future Backcasting for 100% Renewables in Scotland in 2030: Introduction & Todays program Jaco Quist, j.n.quist@tudelft.nl Energy & Industry Section Faculty of Technology, Policy, Management
- 2. 2Challenge the future 0. About myself: • 1994-1997, STD program, organising & supporting backcasting projects • 1998 – 2000, TUD, conducting participatory backcasting • 2001 – 2007, framework + evaluating backcasting & impacts • Since 2007, research into backcasting, sustainability transitions, sustainable & responsible innovation, technology assessment. Teaching in Technology &Policy, Industrial Ecology, SET • 2007: dissertation on the impact of backcasting • 2010: European Roundtable Sustainable Concumption & Production (ERSCP) • 2011: Special issue on backcasting (TFSC) • 2013: Special volume sustainable innovation & business models (JCP) • 2013: Special section learning & collaboration sustainable innovation (JCP)
- 3. 3Challenge the future 1. Backcasting: introduction Backcasting: Create a desirable sustainable future first before looking back from that future how it could have been achieved and planning initial steps how to move towards that future. Backcasting: Particularly useful in case of complex ‘wicked’ problems that include dominant trends; when market-based solutions are insufficient; a need for a major change; long time horizons allow strong alternatives (Dreborg ’96) Backcasting: Intervention approach related to Constructive TA, and Transition Mangement Backcasting: Normative turn in foresight & more popular, e.g. Gidden (2009) The politics of Climate Change, pp 98-100. 27-10-2011
- 4. 4Challenge the future Present Future Forecasting BAU Scenarios Present Future Exploratory Scenarios Present Future Backcasting Predict most likely future Explore alternative futures Assess feasibility of desirable future(s) 27-10-2011
- 5. 5Challenge the future 2000 2050 TIME Future- Vision E C O E F F I C I E N C Y Milestones Backcasting: from vision to action CHARACTERISTICS Explicitly normative Participatory System oriented, Desired futures & changes (action-oriented) Combines process, design, analysis Transdisciplinary Helpful if institutions / rule system lack
- 6. 6Challenge the future June 4, 2014 Backcasting: 3 key elements Vision stakeholders learning Content results Process results Impact
- 7. 7Challenge the future Development of backcasting • 1960s -> Normative Forecasting (Jantsch / Linstone) Has evolved into roadmapping • 1970s -> Energy Backcasting (Lovins/ Robinson/ Steen) Revival, e.g. in Japan and UK (Tyndall) • 1990s -> Sustainability backcasting (Höjer/ Bannister/ v Wee) • Mid 1990s -> Participatory backcasting (NL/Swe/Can/UK) Blending -> industrial ecology, adaptive management, TM 27-10-2011
- 8. 8Challenge the future Backcasting: from vision to niche • Backcasting works • No science fiction / no pink cloud thinking / no fairy tales • Visions important in follow-up, supported by networks , agency • Not always follow-up • Follow-up as niches, not yet transitions, stepping stones • Repository.tudelft.nl or www.eburon.nl
- 9. 9Challenge the future Step 1 Strategic Problem orientation Analysis Step 2 Normative future image Vision Step 3 Backcasting Wat is necessary? Step 4 Elaboration, analysis Action agenda Step 5 Embedding, ‘implementation’ Follow-up Methods: I Analysis, II Design, III Interaction, IV Management Demands: i Normative, ii Process, iii Knowledge Backcasting: methodological framework
- 10. 10Challenge the future 10 October 4, 2011 10 20502000 TIME Vision of the future S T E P S Backcasting: step by step 1. SPO 2. Make vision 3. BC 4. Pathway & Agenda 5. Embedding & Implementatio n
- 11. 11Challenge the future Novel Protein Foods 40% Meat alternatives in 2040 instead of meat Groups of 3?? 1. What changes are necessary (C, S, T)? 2. How can these changes be achieved? 3. Who (which stakeholders) are needed? 4. What are drivers and barriers for this System Innovation? Adjusting future vision allowed! Today: backcasting excersise Future Vision
- 12. 12Challenge the future 6/4/2014 Necessary changes Culture Consumer & societal acceptance different position of meat, consumer benefits Structure Smaller livestock and meat sector (related policies), new NPF sector Technology New knowledge and technology for foods, production systems and chains Novel Protein Foods (NPF)
- 13. 13Challenge the future WHAT-HOW-WHO 6/4/2014 WHAT HOW WHO Better vegetarian foods Product development Fundamenmtal rsesearch Firms Firms & research bodies Awareness on issues of meat consumption & production & behavioural change by consumers Public campaigns Education Good attractive products Taxing meat , Govt, ngo’s , Govt, educational bodies Firms Govt Smaller meat/livestock industry & growing vegetarian protein food industry Market developments Subsidies & supportive policies Restructuring meat sector including re-education Firms & consumers Govt, Govt & educational bodies
- 14. 14Challenge the future GLAMURS Green Lifestyles, Alternative Models, & Upscaling Regional Sustainabilitiy Backcasting for regional grassroots niches Danube- Bohemian Forest (Austria) Saxony- Anhanlt (Germany) Banat-Timis (Romania) Trentino Alto Adige (Italy) Rotterdam- Delft-The Hague (The Netherlands) Aberdeenshire (Scotland, UK) Galicia (Spain)
- 15. 15Challenge the future 3 SUSTAINABLE ENERGY TEXEL: DENNIS RICKEN SET THESIS WORK 2007, ,municipality of Texel decided to go for self-sufficiency Most recent feasibility study indicate that it could not be achieved Municipality maintains ambition, but new strategy needed Goal: gaining insight into the opportunities, potentials and barriers What are the opportunities, potentials and barriers for developing and implementing a sustainable energy system that makes ,Island Texel energy self-sufficient in 2020? Main research question is formulated as follows:
- 16. 16Challenge the future CONSTRUCTION SCENARIOS Also difference in storage and power infrastructure Scenario A: Trend growth Scenario B: Energy conservation Energy supply Centralized energy system Decentralized energy system Electricity demand: 80.10 GWh Share Electricity demand: 100 GWh Share Solar: solar fields Wind: wind turbines Geo: geothermal power plant Bio: CHPs based on biogas 22% 35% 35% 28% Solar: solar panels Wind: small wind turbines Bio: CHPs based on biogas 30% 18% 50% Heat demand: 167.78 GWh Heat demand: 128.25 GWh Geo: geothermal power plant HCS: open and closed systems Bio: co-digestion, CHP, WWTP 36% 45% 20% Solar: solar thermal collectors HCS: open and closed systems Bio: (co-)digestion, CHP, WWTP 32% 35% 32% Process demand: 9.81 GWh Process demand: 7.5 GWh Bio: co-digestion, WWTP 100% Bio: (co-)digestion, WWTP 100% Fuel demand: 115.82 GWh Fuel demand: 3.9 GWh Bio: photobioreactors, cleaning 100% Bio: fermentation plant 100%
- 17. 17Challenge the future Energy Delta Gas Research (EDGaR) • Research project “The next 50 years”: • What is a robust long-term sustainability strategy for the gas sector?
- 18. 18Challenge the future 6 perspectives using Q-methodology (Eefje Cuppen, Olga di Ruggerio) 1. Decentralized domestic sustainability with natural gas as backup 2. a) All-electric society, decentralized sustainability, no natural gas 2. b) Gas country the Netherlands 3. Widespread replacement of dirty fossil fuels by (natural) gas 4. Different technologies and systems simultaneously 5. Market-driven change, resisting lock-in of current situations and systems, toward more sustainability
- 19. 19Challenge the future 100% renewables 2030 3 Subgroups for 3 visions 1. What changes are necessary (C, S, T)? 2. How can these changes be achieved? 3. Who (which stakeholders) are needed? 4. What are drivers and barriers for this System Innovation? Adjusting future vision allowed! Today: Scotland backcasting excersise Future Vision
- 20. 20Challenge the future Program (1) • 11.30 – 13.00 First round of visioning & backcasting • Vision Lead introduction • What are major parts/elements of vision (Technological, Cultural, Structural)? (15 mins) • What goals & targets to be achieved in 2030? (15 mins) • Backcasting (in groups of 4-5) (12.15-12.40 hr) • What changes are necessary (C, S, T)? • How can these changes be achieved? • Who (which stakeholders) are needed? • Backcasting Report Back (12.40-13.00 hr)
- 21. 21Challenge the future Program (2) • 14.00 – 15.30 Scenario Elaboration for 3 visions in teams of 4/5 • Defining Pathways (2015-2020-2030) (40 minutes) • What activities needed in government domain (over time)? • What activities needed in business-utilities domain (over time)? • What activities needed in research-knowledge domain? • What activities needed in civil society-public interest domain? • What is a good follow-up agenda and next steps? • Exchange within one vision group (25 minutes) • Preparing plenary presentations (25 minutes)
- 22. 22Challenge the future Transitions: CO2 neutral energy 2000 2030 Fossile energy CO2 neutral Clean fossile incl. CO2 sequestration Windpark on sea Biofuel out of wast Infrastructure for hydrogen Storage of heat; use of heat pumpsPower-heat coupling at domestic scale Transition PV parks on land
- 23. 23Challenge the future Program (3) • 16.00 – 17.15 Plenary Reporting & Discussion • 16.00-16.20 Stand Alone Scottish Network Scenario • 16.20-16.40 Local Energy Autarky Scenario (Pod) • 16.40-17.00 UK Centric Scenario (Plenary) • Final Discussion & Next Steps (17.00-17.15) • 17.15 – 18.30 Reception and Networking
- 24. 24Challenge the future In Conclusion • Backcasting explained • Examples given • Todays progam described • Let’s get started ! 1. UK Centric scenario • (Plenary, Iain Staffel, Gary Polhil) 2. Scotland Alone scenario • (Breakout, Stewart Haseldine, Tony Craig) 3. Local Energy Autarky scenario • (Pod, Andrew Peacock, Jaco Quist)