Behaviour Change
   …art or science?
            Clive Bates
Director General, Sustainable Futures
   Welsh Assembly Government
Contemporary challenges
Some relevant areas
                   Post-16 participation                       Energy efficiency
                   Parenting                                   Transport choices
Education/skills   Adult literacy              Environment     Reduce, reuse, recycle
                   Life skills (cooking etc)                   Consumption choices
                   Volunteering                                Fly-tipping

                   Drugs, alcohol, tobacco                     Anti-social behaviour
                   Teenage pregnancy                           Crime prevention
Health             Obesity                     Community       Terrorism
                   Keeping appointments                        Social mobility
                   Organ donation                              Litter / graffiti


                   Active job seeking                          Pension provision
                   Service culture                             Self-care
Prosperity         Entrepreneurship            Care / ageing   Mental health
                   Personal aspiration                         Active ageing
                   Diversity                                   End-of-life choices
Behaviour change is big money
                Projected UK health care spending
        (% GDP public & private, annotations at 2002-3 prices)

% GDP
    14
                          US spent                About £220 bn
                        14.6% GDP in              over 15 years
                        2002 (OECD)

    12                                                            ke
                                                                ta               £30bn
                                                             up
                                                        ow
                                                      Sl
    10                                                           Fully engaged




        8
                                                                                 £154bn
                                                               £96bn
                                                               2007-8
        6


        4
        19 78

        19 83

        19 88

        19 93

        20 98

        20 03



        20 13

        20 18
        20 08




                3
             -2
             -
             -

             -

             -

             -

             -

             -

             -

             -
          17
    77

          82

          87

          92

          97

          02

          07

          12



          22
  19




   Source: Wanless, 2002 Securing Our Future Health: Taking A Long-Term View
1. Use a simple model that
   people can remember
1. The 4-E approach to behaviour change
  Taxes & fiscal measures                     Remove barriers to act
     Regulation & fines                    Set defaults / opt-out vs opt-in
       League tables                         Form clubs / communities
 Targets / perf management                      Provide information
 Prizes / rewards / bonuses     Enable      Choose intervention timing
   Preferential treatment                           Personalise
     Status recognition                       Provide space / facilities
    Subsidies / discounts                        Build confidence
          Feedback                              Ease/cost of access


                Encourage      Catalyse      Engage



                                            Community/network action
       Evidence base
                                                  Deliberative fora
    Walk the talk & lead
                                               Segmentation / focus
Consistency across policies
                               Exemplify        Secure commitment
    Sustained approach
                                                 Personal contacts
  Credibility / confidence
                                            Role models / 'super-users'
Benchmarking / evaluation
                                           Paid/unpaid media campaigns
 Learning & improvement
                                           Pester power / Peer pressure
Political consensus building
                                                 Workplace norms
4-E approach to behaviour change
  Taxes & fiscal measures                     Remove barriers to act
     Regulation & fines                    Set defaults / opt-out vs opt-in
       League tables                         Form clubs / communities
 Targets / perf management                      Provide information
 Prizes / rewards / bonuses     Enable      Choose intervention timing
   Preferential treatment                           Personalise
     Status recognition                       Provide space / facilities
    Subsidies / discounts                        Build confidence
          Feedback                              Ease/cost of access


                Encourage      Catalyse      Engage



                                            Community/network action
       Evidence base
                                                  Deliberative fora
    Walk the talk & lead
                                               Segmentation / focus
Consistency across policies
                               Exemplify        Secure commitment
    Sustained approach
                                                 Personal contacts
  Credibility / confidence
                                            Role models / 'super-users'
Benchmarking / evaluation
                                           Paid/unpaid media campaigns
 Learning & improvement
                                           Pester power / Peer pressure
Political consensus building
                                                 Workplace norms
Some examples using the 4-E framework

•   Smoking
•   Drink driving
•   Recycling
Smoking prevalence
               All > age 16 (Britain)

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
 5
 0
 1975   1980   1985   1990   1995   2000   2005   2010
Smoking and behaviour change
   High excise taxes
 Ban marketing practices                 NHS 'stop smoking' treatment
   Address smuggling                        Smoke-free policies
                              Enable              Quit-lines
 (nb. Personal incentives)               Pharmaceutical deregulation




               Encourage     Catalyse     Engage




   Smoke-free policies                   Social marketing campaigns
Clear messages from NHS      Exemplify     More graphic warnings
   Consistent package                     Major news media assault
       Clear goals                       Constant revisiting evidence
 Commercial arguments                         “Denormalisation”
But others forces are at work...
                                                                            ...as
                                                                              the force of the
A cigarette for the beginner
                                                                       psychological symbolism
 is a symbolic act. I am no
                                                                             subsides, the
 longer my mother’s child,
                                                                       pharmacological effects
     I’m tough, I am an
                                                                        take over to sustain the
     adventurer, I’m not
                                                                                 habit
          square...




    Dunn W. Vice President for Research and Development, Philip Norris. Why one smokes. 1968 Minnesota Trial Exhibit 3681.
Smoking: from the dark side

        Advertising                        Orchestrating smuggling
       Role models                                  Lights
  Adult product definition     Enable               Filters
         Duty Free                              Wide availability
                                          Fighting smoke-free places




               Encourage      Catalyse    Engage




                                           Aspirational sell to poor
Product placement in films    Exemplify    Coupons and catalogues
      Sponsorship                           Coaching arguments
     Normalisation                              Distracting PR
                                               Bogus science
Drink driving
           Reported drink drive accidents and fatalities: GB 1980-2008
                                    1980=100


120

100

80

60

40                                                                        Accidents

                                                                          Fatalities
20

 0
 1980         1985        1990       1995        2000       2005         2010

      DFT: Reported Road Casualties Great Britain 2008: Annual Report
Drink driving
                                                    Breathalyser
                                              Soft drinks normalisation
 More severe penalties                             Taxi services &
  Police enforcement             Enable           other innovations
                                                   Driver training
                                                 as part of penalty




                Encourage       Catalyse      Engage




                                                 Strong sustained
   30 year campaign             Exemplify        media campaign
Vilification of politicians
    No 'nod and wink'
                                               Clever segmentation
Drink driving
           Reported drink drive accidents and fatalities: GB 1980-2008
                                    1980=100
                                                             Rise of Alcopops
                                                   60
                                                   50
120
                                                   40




                              ml/week per person
                                                   30
100                                                20
                                                   10

80                                                  0
                                                    1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006


60
            Seatbelts
40         Compulsory                                                                          Accidents
              1983
                                                                                               Fatalities
20

 0
 1980         1985        1990                           1995          2000         2005      2010

      DFT: Reported Road Casualties Great Britain 2008: Annual Report
Drink driving
           Reported drink drive accidents and fatalities: GB 1980-2008
                                    1980=100
                                                                          Decline of breath tests
                                                                900
                                                                800
120




                            Number of breath tests (thousand)
                                                                700




                                 England and Wales
                                                                600
100                                                             500
                                                                400
80                                                              300
                                                                  1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006


60

40                                                                                                           Accidents

                                                                                                             Fatalities
20

 0
 1980         1985        1990                                         1995           2000          2005    2010

      DFT: Reported Road Casualties Great Britain 2008: Annual Report
Recycling and behaviour change
                                    UK recycling rate
                                          Kg per person
200

180

160

140

120

100

 80

 60

 40

 20

  0
      1991-92   1993-94   1995-96   1997-98   1999-00     2001-02   2003-04   2005-06   2007-08
Recycling and behaviour change
        Landfill tax
                                            Collection services
 Landfill diversion targets
                                            Containers / bags
          Infraction
                               Enable             Sorting
     Local authorities
                                            (difficulties remain)
incentive structure changed




               Encourage      Catalyse    Engage




                                            Common endeavour
  Government targets                          No free-riding
   Money committed            Exemplify      Waste Awareness
     SD indicators
Long-term view (to 2025)                   But... controversy and
                                                  sensitivity
Organ donation




J o h n s o n , E . J . a n d G o l d s t e i n , D . ( 2 0 0 3 ) . D o d e f a u l t s s a v e l i v e s ? S c i e n c e , 3 0 2 : 1 3 3 8– 1 3 3 9 .
Blood / organ donation


Payment?            Enable           Default (opt out)




     Encourage     Catalyse    Engage




                   Exemplify
Blood money

                              Donors per thousand population
50



40                     38.1




30



20



10
                                                                       7.1


                                                                                 2.3

 0
                 Developed                                   Transition      Developing

 World Health Organisation: Blood Transfusion Safety Unit 2007 data.
Paying for blood creates poor incentives
    Percentage of voluntary unpaid blood donations, 2007
Contracts for exercise

                           Participation in walking programme
100


                                    81
 80



 60



 40
                                                                                                     31



 20



  0
                               Contract                                                      No contract

 Williams BR, Bezner J, Chesbro SB, Leavitt R. The effect of a behavioral contract on adherence to a walking program in postmenopausal
 African American women. Top Geriatr Rehab.2005;21(4):332- 342.
Contracts to create reciprocity


Solidarity with others
   Peer pressure            Enable




            Encourage      Catalyse     Engage




                           Exemplify
                                         Contract & reciprocity
Teachers Expectations affect Student Outcome

     Proportion pupils achieving 30 point grade increase
30


25


20
                                  21                                       “The soft bigotry of
                                                                              low expectations”
15


10

                                                                                                    5
 5


 0
           Randomly selected but labelled                                                 Control group
           "High achievers"



 Rosenthal, Robert & Jacobson, Lenore. Pygmalion in the classroom (1992). Expanded edition. New York: Irvington
 Quote: attributed to George W Bush
The Pygmalion Effect


                   Enable




Encourage         Catalyse     Engage




                  Exemplify
                              Expectation setting and belief
4-E behaviour change model in use
2. Think of people as ‘human’
2. Understand human behaviour
                             Rational
                            all-knowing
                          individualised
                            long-term
                                utility
                           maximisation
MINDSPACE
MINDSPACE

Messenger: We are influenced by who communicates information
Incentives: Our responses are shaped by biases and shortcuts
Norms:    We tend to do what those around us are already doing

Defaults: We ‘go with the flow’ of pre-set options
MINDSPACE

Salience: Our attention is drawn to what is novel and seems
relevant to us

Priming: Our acts are often influenced by sub-conscious cues
Affect: Emotional associations can powerfully shape our actions
Commitment: We seek to be consistent with our public promises,
and reciprocate acts

Ego: We act in ways that make us feel better about ourselves
The Science of Persuasion

6 weapons of influence
•Reciprocation: You did something for me and now I owe you

•Consistency: One thing I do or think leads to another

•Social proof: 9 out of 10 cats prefer...

•Liking: I will buy Tupperware from you because I like you

•Authority: More doctors smoke Lucky Strike

•Scarcity: Get it now, or I’ll be sorry when it’s gone

Robert Cialdini, The science of persuasion, Scientific American, 284, 76-81.
Some “biases” in real behaviour

•   Loss aversion
•   Recency                                   It's illogical
•   Peak experience                            Captain...
•   Herding
•   Heuristics
•   Omission
•   Habit
•   Confirmation
•   Hyperbolic discounting
List of cognitive human “biases”
Behaviour & Decision-
                                   Probability & belief                       Social
making
Bandwagon effect                   Ambiguity effect                           Actor-observer bias
Base rate fallacy                  Anchoring effect                           Egocentric bias
Bias blind spot                    Attentional bias                           Forer effect
Choice-supportive bias             Authority bias                             False consensus effect
Confirmation bias                  Availability heuristic                     Fundamental attribution error
Congruence bias                    Availability cascade                       Halo effect
Contrast effect                    Belief bias                                Herd instinct
Déformation professionnelle        Clustering illusion                        Illusion of asymmetric insight
Denomination effect                Capability bias                            Illusion of transparency
Distinction bias                   Conjunction fallacy                        Illusory superiority
Endowment effect                   Disposition effect                         Ingroup bias
Experimenter's                     Gambler's fallacy                          Just-world phenomenon
Extraordinarity bias               Hawthorne effect                           Notational bias
Focusing effect                    Hindsight bias                             Outgroup homogeneity bias
Framing                            Illusory correlation                       Projection bias
Hyperbolic discounting             Ludic fallacy                              Self-serving bias
Illusion of control                Neglect of prior base rates effect         Self-fulfilling prophecy
Impact bias                        Observer-expectancy effect                 System justification
Information bias                   Optimism bias                              Trait ascription bias
Interloper effect                  Ostrich effect                             Ultimate attribution error
Irrational escalation              Overconfidence effect
Just-world phenomenon              Positive outcome bias
Loss aversion                      Pareidolia
Mere exposure effect               Primacy effect
Money illusion                     Recency effect
Moral credential effect            Disregard of regression toward the mean.
Need for Closure                   Selection bias
Negativity bias                    Stereotyping
Neglect of probability             Subadditivity effect
Normalcy bias                      Subjective validation
Not Invented Here                  Telescoping effect
Omission bias                      Texas sharpshooter fallacy
Outcome bias                       Well travelled road effect
Planning fallacy                   Consistency bias
Post-purchase rationalization      Cryptomnesia
Pseudocertainty effect             Egocentric bias
Reactance
Restraint bias
                                   False memory
                                   Hindsight bias
                                                                                  For more information
Selective perception
Semmelweis reflex
                                   Reminiscence bump
                                   Rosy retrospection                              Wikipedia search:
Status quo bias
Von Restorff effect
                                   Self-serving bias
                                   Suggestibility                               “List of cognitive biases”
Wishful thinking
Zero-risk bias
3. Understand the population
3. Understand the population
Use segmentation
Willing to act
                                                                                                          1: Positive greens
                                                                                                          I think it’s important that I do
                                                                                                          as much as I can to limit my
                        2: Waste watchers                                                                 impact on the environment.
                       ‘Waste not, want not’ that’s                                                       18%
                       important, you should live life
                       thinking about what you are                     3: Concerned consumers
                       doing and using. 12%                            I think I do more than a lot of
                                                                       people. Still, going away is
                                                                       important, I’d find that hard to
                                                                       give up..well I wouldn’t, so
 7: Honestly disengaged                                                carbon off-setting would make
 Maybe there’ll be an                                                  me feel better. 14%
 environmental disaster, maybe
 not. Makes no difference to
 me, I’m just living life the way I      5: Cautious participants
 want to. 18%                           I do a couple of things to help
                                        the environment. I’d really like to
                                        do more, well as long as I saw
                                        others were. 14%


                                                                         4: Sideline supporters
      6: Stalled starters                                               I think climate change is a big
      I don’t know much about                                           problem for us. I know I don’t
      climate change. I can’t afford                                    think much about how much
      a car so I use public                                             water or electricity I use, and I
      transport.. I’d like a car                                        forget to turn things off..I’d like to
      though. 10%                                                       do a bit more. 14%


                                                                                                                 Able to act
4. Be careful with the relationship
   between citizen and state
4: Establish the case for intervention

           “The only purpose for which power can
           be rightfully exercised over any
           member of a civilised community,
           against his will, is to prevent harm to
           others. His own good, either physical or
           moral, is not a sufficient warrant”.




But… Children? Addiction? Influence of background?
Mental illness? Collective costs? Regret...?
From soft paternalism to regulation
Public (external) impacts



                                         Passive smoking - workers


                                       Passive smoking - public


                                     Hooking kids


                        Unregulated addiction


                    Health impacts



                                                    Private impacts
5. Adopt a learning approach
4+2 Es approach to behaviour change



                       Enable




Explore   Encourage   Catalyse    Engage   Evaluate




                      Exemplify
5. Culture change: self-sustaining behaviour
Summary

1. Four-E behaviour-change model
   Encourage
   Enable
   Engage
   Exemplify
2. Understand real behaviour
3. Segment and personalise
4. Judge public acceptability (which changes)
5. Experiment and evaluate
Reading up...




Thaler & Sustein   Mark Earls   Robert Cialdini   Dan Ariely
Reading up...




  Government      Government        Institute for   Cabinet Office
communications   Social Research    Government
                                          &
                                   Cabinet Office

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Behaviour change presentation

  • 1. Behaviour Change …art or science? Clive Bates Director General, Sustainable Futures Welsh Assembly Government
  • 3. Some relevant areas Post-16 participation Energy efficiency Parenting Transport choices Education/skills Adult literacy Environment Reduce, reuse, recycle Life skills (cooking etc) Consumption choices Volunteering Fly-tipping Drugs, alcohol, tobacco Anti-social behaviour Teenage pregnancy Crime prevention Health Obesity Community Terrorism Keeping appointments Social mobility Organ donation Litter / graffiti Active job seeking Pension provision Service culture Self-care Prosperity Entrepreneurship Care / ageing Mental health Personal aspiration Active ageing Diversity End-of-life choices
  • 4. Behaviour change is big money Projected UK health care spending (% GDP public & private, annotations at 2002-3 prices) % GDP 14 US spent About £220 bn 14.6% GDP in over 15 years 2002 (OECD) 12 ke ta £30bn up ow Sl 10 Fully engaged 8 £154bn £96bn 2007-8 6 4 19 78 19 83 19 88 19 93 20 98 20 03 20 13 20 18 20 08 3 -2 - - - - - - - - - 17 77 82 87 92 97 02 07 12 22 19 Source: Wanless, 2002 Securing Our Future Health: Taking A Long-Term View
  • 5. 1. Use a simple model that people can remember
  • 6. 1. The 4-E approach to behaviour change Taxes & fiscal measures Remove barriers to act Regulation & fines Set defaults / opt-out vs opt-in League tables Form clubs / communities Targets / perf management Provide information Prizes / rewards / bonuses Enable Choose intervention timing Preferential treatment Personalise Status recognition Provide space / facilities Subsidies / discounts Build confidence Feedback Ease/cost of access Encourage Catalyse Engage Community/network action Evidence base Deliberative fora Walk the talk & lead Segmentation / focus Consistency across policies Exemplify Secure commitment Sustained approach Personal contacts Credibility / confidence Role models / 'super-users' Benchmarking / evaluation Paid/unpaid media campaigns Learning & improvement Pester power / Peer pressure Political consensus building Workplace norms
  • 7. 4-E approach to behaviour change Taxes & fiscal measures Remove barriers to act Regulation & fines Set defaults / opt-out vs opt-in League tables Form clubs / communities Targets / perf management Provide information Prizes / rewards / bonuses Enable Choose intervention timing Preferential treatment Personalise Status recognition Provide space / facilities Subsidies / discounts Build confidence Feedback Ease/cost of access Encourage Catalyse Engage Community/network action Evidence base Deliberative fora Walk the talk & lead Segmentation / focus Consistency across policies Exemplify Secure commitment Sustained approach Personal contacts Credibility / confidence Role models / 'super-users' Benchmarking / evaluation Paid/unpaid media campaigns Learning & improvement Pester power / Peer pressure Political consensus building Workplace norms
  • 8. Some examples using the 4-E framework • Smoking • Drink driving • Recycling
  • 9. Smoking prevalence All > age 16 (Britain) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
  • 10. Smoking and behaviour change High excise taxes Ban marketing practices NHS 'stop smoking' treatment Address smuggling Smoke-free policies Enable Quit-lines (nb. Personal incentives) Pharmaceutical deregulation Encourage Catalyse Engage Smoke-free policies Social marketing campaigns Clear messages from NHS Exemplify More graphic warnings Consistent package Major news media assault Clear goals Constant revisiting evidence Commercial arguments “Denormalisation”
  • 11. But others forces are at work... ...as the force of the A cigarette for the beginner psychological symbolism is a symbolic act. I am no subsides, the longer my mother’s child, pharmacological effects I’m tough, I am an take over to sustain the adventurer, I’m not habit square... Dunn W. Vice President for Research and Development, Philip Norris. Why one smokes. 1968 Minnesota Trial Exhibit 3681.
  • 12. Smoking: from the dark side Advertising Orchestrating smuggling Role models Lights Adult product definition Enable Filters Duty Free Wide availability Fighting smoke-free places Encourage Catalyse Engage Aspirational sell to poor Product placement in films Exemplify Coupons and catalogues Sponsorship Coaching arguments Normalisation Distracting PR Bogus science
  • 13. Drink driving Reported drink drive accidents and fatalities: GB 1980-2008 1980=100 120 100 80 60 40 Accidents Fatalities 20 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 DFT: Reported Road Casualties Great Britain 2008: Annual Report
  • 14. Drink driving Breathalyser Soft drinks normalisation More severe penalties Taxi services & Police enforcement Enable other innovations Driver training as part of penalty Encourage Catalyse Engage Strong sustained 30 year campaign Exemplify media campaign Vilification of politicians No 'nod and wink' Clever segmentation
  • 15. Drink driving Reported drink drive accidents and fatalities: GB 1980-2008 1980=100 Rise of Alcopops 60 50 120 40 ml/week per person 30 100 20 10 80 0 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 60 Seatbelts 40 Compulsory Accidents 1983 Fatalities 20 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 DFT: Reported Road Casualties Great Britain 2008: Annual Report
  • 16. Drink driving Reported drink drive accidents and fatalities: GB 1980-2008 1980=100 Decline of breath tests 900 800 120 Number of breath tests (thousand) 700 England and Wales 600 100 500 400 80 300 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 60 40 Accidents Fatalities 20 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 DFT: Reported Road Casualties Great Britain 2008: Annual Report
  • 17. Recycling and behaviour change UK recycling rate Kg per person 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1991-92 1993-94 1995-96 1997-98 1999-00 2001-02 2003-04 2005-06 2007-08
  • 18. Recycling and behaviour change Landfill tax Collection services Landfill diversion targets Containers / bags Infraction Enable Sorting Local authorities (difficulties remain) incentive structure changed Encourage Catalyse Engage Common endeavour Government targets No free-riding Money committed Exemplify Waste Awareness SD indicators Long-term view (to 2025) But... controversy and sensitivity
  • 19. Organ donation J o h n s o n , E . J . a n d G o l d s t e i n , D . ( 2 0 0 3 ) . D o d e f a u l t s s a v e l i v e s ? S c i e n c e , 3 0 2 : 1 3 3 8– 1 3 3 9 .
  • 20. Blood / organ donation Payment? Enable Default (opt out) Encourage Catalyse Engage Exemplify
  • 21. Blood money Donors per thousand population 50 40 38.1 30 20 10 7.1 2.3 0 Developed Transition Developing World Health Organisation: Blood Transfusion Safety Unit 2007 data.
  • 22. Paying for blood creates poor incentives Percentage of voluntary unpaid blood donations, 2007
  • 23. Contracts for exercise Participation in walking programme 100 81 80 60 40 31 20 0 Contract No contract Williams BR, Bezner J, Chesbro SB, Leavitt R. The effect of a behavioral contract on adherence to a walking program in postmenopausal African American women. Top Geriatr Rehab.2005;21(4):332- 342.
  • 24. Contracts to create reciprocity Solidarity with others Peer pressure Enable Encourage Catalyse Engage Exemplify Contract & reciprocity
  • 25. Teachers Expectations affect Student Outcome Proportion pupils achieving 30 point grade increase 30 25 20 21 “The soft bigotry of low expectations” 15 10 5 5 0 Randomly selected but labelled Control group "High achievers" Rosenthal, Robert & Jacobson, Lenore. Pygmalion in the classroom (1992). Expanded edition. New York: Irvington Quote: attributed to George W Bush
  • 26. The Pygmalion Effect Enable Encourage Catalyse Engage Exemplify Expectation setting and belief
  • 27. 4-E behaviour change model in use
  • 28. 2. Think of people as ‘human’
  • 29. 2. Understand human behaviour Rational all-knowing individualised long-term utility maximisation
  • 31. MINDSPACE Messenger: We are influenced by who communicates information Incentives: Our responses are shaped by biases and shortcuts Norms: We tend to do what those around us are already doing Defaults: We ‘go with the flow’ of pre-set options
  • 32. MINDSPACE Salience: Our attention is drawn to what is novel and seems relevant to us Priming: Our acts are often influenced by sub-conscious cues Affect: Emotional associations can powerfully shape our actions Commitment: We seek to be consistent with our public promises, and reciprocate acts Ego: We act in ways that make us feel better about ourselves
  • 33. The Science of Persuasion 6 weapons of influence •Reciprocation: You did something for me and now I owe you •Consistency: One thing I do or think leads to another •Social proof: 9 out of 10 cats prefer... •Liking: I will buy Tupperware from you because I like you •Authority: More doctors smoke Lucky Strike •Scarcity: Get it now, or I’ll be sorry when it’s gone Robert Cialdini, The science of persuasion, Scientific American, 284, 76-81.
  • 34. Some “biases” in real behaviour • Loss aversion • Recency It's illogical • Peak experience Captain... • Herding • Heuristics • Omission • Habit • Confirmation • Hyperbolic discounting
  • 35. List of cognitive human “biases” Behaviour & Decision- Probability & belief Social making Bandwagon effect Ambiguity effect Actor-observer bias Base rate fallacy Anchoring effect Egocentric bias Bias blind spot Attentional bias Forer effect Choice-supportive bias Authority bias False consensus effect Confirmation bias Availability heuristic Fundamental attribution error Congruence bias Availability cascade Halo effect Contrast effect Belief bias Herd instinct Déformation professionnelle Clustering illusion Illusion of asymmetric insight Denomination effect Capability bias Illusion of transparency Distinction bias Conjunction fallacy Illusory superiority Endowment effect Disposition effect Ingroup bias Experimenter's Gambler's fallacy Just-world phenomenon Extraordinarity bias Hawthorne effect Notational bias Focusing effect Hindsight bias Outgroup homogeneity bias Framing Illusory correlation Projection bias Hyperbolic discounting Ludic fallacy Self-serving bias Illusion of control Neglect of prior base rates effect Self-fulfilling prophecy Impact bias Observer-expectancy effect System justification Information bias Optimism bias Trait ascription bias Interloper effect Ostrich effect Ultimate attribution error Irrational escalation Overconfidence effect Just-world phenomenon Positive outcome bias Loss aversion Pareidolia Mere exposure effect Primacy effect Money illusion Recency effect Moral credential effect Disregard of regression toward the mean. Need for Closure Selection bias Negativity bias Stereotyping Neglect of probability Subadditivity effect Normalcy bias Subjective validation Not Invented Here Telescoping effect Omission bias Texas sharpshooter fallacy Outcome bias Well travelled road effect Planning fallacy Consistency bias Post-purchase rationalization Cryptomnesia Pseudocertainty effect Egocentric bias Reactance Restraint bias False memory Hindsight bias For more information Selective perception Semmelweis reflex Reminiscence bump Rosy retrospection Wikipedia search: Status quo bias Von Restorff effect Self-serving bias Suggestibility “List of cognitive biases” Wishful thinking Zero-risk bias
  • 36. 3. Understand the population
  • 37. 3. Understand the population
  • 38. Use segmentation Willing to act 1: Positive greens I think it’s important that I do as much as I can to limit my 2: Waste watchers impact on the environment. ‘Waste not, want not’ that’s 18% important, you should live life thinking about what you are 3: Concerned consumers doing and using. 12% I think I do more than a lot of people. Still, going away is important, I’d find that hard to give up..well I wouldn’t, so 7: Honestly disengaged carbon off-setting would make Maybe there’ll be an me feel better. 14% environmental disaster, maybe not. Makes no difference to me, I’m just living life the way I 5: Cautious participants want to. 18% I do a couple of things to help the environment. I’d really like to do more, well as long as I saw others were. 14% 4: Sideline supporters 6: Stalled starters I think climate change is a big I don’t know much about problem for us. I know I don’t climate change. I can’t afford think much about how much a car so I use public water or electricity I use, and I transport.. I’d like a car forget to turn things off..I’d like to though. 10% do a bit more. 14% Able to act
  • 39. 4. Be careful with the relationship between citizen and state
  • 40. 4: Establish the case for intervention “The only purpose for which power can be rightfully exercised over any member of a civilised community, against his will, is to prevent harm to others. His own good, either physical or moral, is not a sufficient warrant”. But… Children? Addiction? Influence of background? Mental illness? Collective costs? Regret...?
  • 41. From soft paternalism to regulation Public (external) impacts Passive smoking - workers Passive smoking - public Hooking kids Unregulated addiction Health impacts Private impacts
  • 42. 5. Adopt a learning approach
  • 43. 4+2 Es approach to behaviour change Enable Explore Encourage Catalyse Engage Evaluate Exemplify
  • 44. 5. Culture change: self-sustaining behaviour
  • 45. Summary 1. Four-E behaviour-change model  Encourage  Enable  Engage  Exemplify 2. Understand real behaviour 3. Segment and personalise 4. Judge public acceptability (which changes) 5. Experiment and evaluate
  • 46. Reading up... Thaler & Sustein Mark Earls Robert Cialdini Dan Ariely
  • 47. Reading up... Government Government Institute for Cabinet Office communications Social Research Government & Cabinet Office