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1. The document discusses challenges facing the global food system such as drought, volatile food prices, and conflict, as well as opportunities for economic transformation in Africa through agricultural growth. 2. It emphasizes the need to focus on smallholder farmers in Africa, link agricultural growth to improved nutrition and health, and build resilience against shocks. 3. The outlook calls for building resilience of food systems and the poor, advancing integrated approaches to agriculture, nutrition, and related sectors, and fulfilling commitments to end hunger by 2025 through country-led processes.
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- 1. 1 LOREM IPSUM DOLOREM Shenggen Fan Director General Dakar | May 15, 2013
- 2. This presentation 1. 2012 Global Food Policy Report 2. Challenges and opportunities for economic transformation in Africa
- 3. The global food system remained fragile New numbers, same problem Drought and volatile food prices United States, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Southern Africa, Sahel Conflict DRC, Mali, Somalia, Syria Long-term drivers of global food system Old and new FAO estimates of undernourished people worldwide, 1990-2010
- 4. 2012 Major Food Policy Developments G8 launched New Alliance for Food Security and Nutrition in Africa G20 agreed to boost agricultural productivity Committee for World Food Security endorsed voluntary guidelines for land tenure Rio+20 Declaration offered a strong vision with little direction on achieving food security in a green economy Several events were held at the UN General Assembly e.g. New Alliance: Progress and the Way Forward Launch of Nutrition Barometer Scaling Up Nutrition UN Doha climate change negotiations showed stymied progress
- 5. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY A Changing Global Harvest Agricultural productivity growth has accelerated substantially Location and composition of production have changed (more in developing countries; more high-value crops) Sources of production growth and regional contributions are different (sustained high growth in Brazil and China; low growth in Africa) For long-term productivity growth Develop national capacities in agricultural R&D Provide better genetic materials and inputs Create enabling environment for rapid technology adoption Sources of growth in global agricultural production
- 6. GREEN ECONOMY Sustainable and Growing, Food Secure? Rio+20 conference introduced several new initiatives (e.g. Green Economy, Zero Hunger Challenge, Zero Net Land and Forest Degradation) Bioeconomy also gained ground Rio+20 lacked firm policy roadmap and timeframe What is needed? Clear measures, timeframes, and accountability mechanisms Incentives and information for civil society and private sector Rio+20: Towards a “green economy”
- 7. WOMEN IN AGRICULTURE Closing the Gender Gap Role of gender equality in agriculture gained growing attention (FAO’s State of Food and Agriculture and World Bank’s World Development Report) Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index was created (IFPRI, USAID, and Oxford Poverty and Human Development) Development programming moving from gender-blind to gender-aware programs More needs to be done to Build evidence base Strengthen women’s assets Engage with women’s groups as real development partners
- 8. EMPLOYMENT IN AGRICULTURE Jobs for Africa’s Youth Africa south of the Sahara has the fastest growing population and the youngest (additional 150 million people in rural areas from 2010-50) Engagement of Africa’s youth in agriculture is crucial to gain “youth dividend” To realize agriculture’s potential Constraints to land, capital, and skills must be eased Programs must be friendly to needs of the youth Clear vision and political commitment is needed Rural population share and number of people entering rural and urban labor markets in Africa south of the Sahara, 1950–2050
- 9. US AND EU FARM POLICIES The Subsidy Habit Farm subsidies in the US and EU persist, the debate continues Not much was done to expand productivity-increasing public agricultural research What must be done? Revisit farm policies Promote non-distorting trade policies Engage in WTO trade negotiations Composition of EU agricultural budget, annual expenditures, 1990-2010
- 10. Difference in population at risk of hunger (%), compared with baseline, 2050 LOOKING AHEAD Scenarios for the Future of Food 0 5 10 15 20 E. Asia & Pacific Europe & C. Asia LAC MENA S. Asia SSA World -40 -30 -20 -10 0 E. Asia & Pacific Europe & C. Asia LAC MENA S. Asia SSA World HIGHER AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER ENERGY PRICES -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 S. Asia S.E. Asia Asia SSA LAC World Lower meat demand in high-income countries Lower meat demand in high-income countries + Brazil and China LOWER MEAT DEMAND
- 11. Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators1 2 3 4 FOOD POLICY INDICATORS Tracking Change 5 Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development Global Hunger Index Food Policy Research Capacity Indicators Total and Partial Factor Productivity
- 12. This presentation 1. 2012 Global Food Policy Report 2. Opportunities and challenges for economic transformation in Africa
- 13. Rapid economic growth Real GDP per capita, SSA Foreign direct investment net inflows, SSA 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Zambia Angola Tanzania Malawi Lesotho Nigeria Mozambique Rwanda Ethiopia Ghana Average annual real GDP/capita growth, SSA, 2008-2012 (%) -2 0 2 4 6 0 400 800 1,200 1,600 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Percent 2005US$ Real GDP/capita Annual real GDP/capita growth (right) 0 15 30 45 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Billions(currentUS$) Source: ERS, USDA 2012 Source: World Bank 2013 Large opportunities also from • Agriculture • Natural resources • Urbanization… Source: ERS, USDA 2012
- 14. Accelerating agricultural growth Average annual agricultural growth, SSA 1.5 2.5 3.5 4.5 2000-2002 2003-2005 2006-2008 2009-2011 Percent Value of agriculture and food exports, developing Africa 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Billions(US$) Agric raw materials Food Source: UNCTAD 2013Source: World Bank 2013 Increased agricultural spending • 26 countries have signed investment plans under CAADP New initiatives for agricultural transformation e.g. • Agricultural Transformation Agency in Ethiopia; Agricultural transformation agenda in Nigeria
- 15. BUT, poverty and undernutrition remain high Source: Ravallion (2013) Number and prevalence of poverty, SSA Number and prevalence of undernourishment in SSA Source: FAOSTAT 2013 Prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies, Africa Vitamin A-deficiency • Over 30% of preschool age children Anemia • 60% of pregnant women Source: HarvestPlus 2011 0 20 40 60 80 0 200 400 600 800 1990 1999 2008 2015 Percent Millions Number of poor Poverty rate (right) 0 10 20 30 40 0 100 200 300 1990-92 1998-00 2006-08 2010-12 Percent Millions Number of undernourished Prevalence (right)
- 16. For economic transformation to benefit the poor and hungry in Africa Focus on smallholder farmers Link growth to nutrition and health Build resilience against shocks
- 17. Focus on smallholder farms Farm size (ha) % of all farms Africa <2 80 2-10 15 10-100 3 >100 0 They can • Use land more efficiently • Produce cheaper and more nutritious foods • Increase own incomes and productivity • Promote equity, hunger, and poverty reductionSource: Calculations based on most recent data available from FAO Agricultural World Census from late 1980s-2000s Expand agric. R&D and rural infrastructure investments plus access to agric. inputs, services, and markets
- 18. Link growth to nutrition and health Growth strategies should be designed with a nutrition and health lens e.g. Promoting productivity growth of more nutritious foods Increasing demand for and access to nutritious foods along entire value chain Mitigating nutrition and health risks associated with agriculture e.g. zoonotic diseases Breeding more nutritious varieties of staple food crops consumed by poor people Source: Fan and Brzeska 2012
- 19. Build resilience against shocks Scale up better targeted and more productive social safety nets Explore cross-sectoral approaches to reach poor more effectively e.g. Ethiopia Productive Safety Net Program Improve data and information to better predict and respond to shocks e.g. early warning systems Promote access to risk management mechanisms e.g. weather index-based insurance Support livelihood diversification
- 20. OUTLOOK FOR 2013 Walk the Talk! Build resilience of global and national food systems and the poor Give attention to dry areas Further advance the nexus approach (agriculture, nutrition, health & food, water, land, energy) Fulfill L’Aquila commitments, build national capacities, and support implementation of country-led processes Ensure post-2015 development agenda focuses on poor people while pursuing sustainable development goals We can end hunger sustainably by 2025