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Building Effective Frameworks
              for
    Social Media Analysis
Agenda
•   Social Media: An INT perspective
•   Common Analytic Pitfalls
•   An Analytic Framework
•   Case Study: Brand Management
    –   Problem Definition
    –   Source Selection
    –   Data Capture
    –   Data Reporting
    –   Data Analysis
• Ways Forward, Future Analysis
• Questions?
Intelligence
• Intelligence is information that has been
  transformed to meet an operational need

               Operational Lens


    Data                               Intelligence
Intelligence Cycle
No matter what method you use…




          …analysis is an iterative process
Social Media: The INT Perspective
                           Social Media gets the best
                           and worst of three disciplines:
         HUMINT
                              – HUMINT
                                 • Pros: Reveals intentions
                                 • Cons: Can be unreliable
                              – OSINT
                                 • Pros: Fast, Accessible
 OSINT            SIGINT         • Cons: Noise
                              – SIGINT
                                 • Pros: Network, High Volume
                                 • Cons: Noise
Social Media Analysis Goals
• Need to have an end-goal with value to the
  organization (operational lens)
• Need to ensure cyclical feedback occurs from
  collection, processing, analysis, and
  consumption
• Need to make sure that a particular network is
  the right source for the task
Common Misconceptions
• Social media is not a panacea
  – Not everyone uses social media
  – Users of social media use it unevenly
  – User behavior changes based on situations


• Just because people can talk about anything
  does not mean they talk about everything all the
  time.
Common Pitfalls
• The important thing is often not what people are
  saying… but why they are saying it.
• Reporting tools rarely help dig into the why.
• Many common tools, reports, and metrics are
  actually misleading:
  – Word clouds atomize message context
  – Sentiment metrics are often highly inaccurate
  – Information in aggregate hides more than it reveals
Building Effective Frameworks for Social Media Analysis
Building Effective Frameworks for Social Media Analysis
Dangers of Disintegration




                  Source: Matthew Auer, Policy Studies
                  Journal, Volume 39, Issue 4, pages 709–736, Nov
                  2011
Analytic Framework
• Data Capture (DC)
• Data Reporting (DR)
• Data Analysis (DA)
  – 1. What to measure
  – 2. What the data is saying
  – 3. What should be done based on the data


                    Source: Avinash Kaushik, Occam’s Razor Blog
                    http://www.kaushik.net/avinash/web-analytics-consulting-
                    framework-smarter-decisions/
Analytic Framework


     Capture               Analysis




               Reporting
Choosing a Platform
• Social media is still new, evolving; and so
  is how we use it.
  – Static approaches to social media are flawed
    from the outset
  – No one metric or set of metrics will always let
    you know what is happening
• Need an adaptive platform to facilitate
  data capture, reporting, and analysis
Case Study: Brand Management
• Industry: Gaming
  – Experiencing 10% growth annually
  – Overall revenue expected to exceed $80
    billion by 2014
• In May, Zenimax Online Studios
  announced Elder Scrolls Online
  – Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 2nd largest game of
    2011
Problem Definition
• As a brand manager, how can I use social
  media to track and understand public
  attitudes toward my product?
• Challenge is getting relevant information
  – Query too large = false positives
  – Query too small = miss potential information
Source: Twitter
• Twitter has some of the best
  analytic potential
  – High volume traffic
  – High volume user-base
  – Open API
• Not without limitations:
  – 140 characters
  – Limited historical / lookback
Platform: Infinit.e

      Infinit.e is a
        scalable
    framework for                                             Visualizing
                                                  Analyzing
                                     Retrieving
                       Enriching
             Storing
Collecting
                                   Unstructured documents
                                              &
                                     Structured records
Platform: Infinit.e
• Infinit.e supports the extraction of entities
  and creation of associations using a
  combination of built in enrichment libraries
  and 3rd party NLP APIs.
Data Capture – Initial Query
• Twitter search for “Elder Scrolls Online”
   – Simplest possible way to access information
   – RSS feed for 10 days (Jun 27 – July 6 2012)
Data Capture - Tagging
{
     "_id": "4fea6ddce4b0fa6316c7e07a",
     "communityIds": ["4fce07a1e4b06dc8a9107f3b"],
     "created": "Jun 26, 2012 10:20:12 PM",
     "description": "Twitter search for "Elder Scrolls Online" - started 6/26/2012",
     "extractType": "Feed",
     "tags": [
        "games",
        "social",
        "entertainment"
       ],
    "title": "Elder Scrolls Online - Twitter“
    "url": "http://search.twitter.com/search.rss?q=Elder%20Scrolls%20Online",
    "useExtractor": "AlchemyAPI-metadata",
    "useTextExtractor": "none“
    ...
}
Data Capture – Entity Map
     Hashtag   TwitterHandle         URL

                                                    Who
                                                    TwitterHandle


                                                    What
                                                    Hashtags, Keywords,
                                                    URLs

                                                    When
                                                    Time, Date


                               Unstructured Keywords Where
                 Time / Date Stamp                  Geo (if Available)
Data Reporting
• Used Infinit.e’s Flash U/I Widget Framework
  –   Document Browser (Individual Tweets)
  –   Entity Significance (Top Entities)
  –   Sentiment (Top Entities w/ Sentiment)
  –   Query Metrics (Breakdowns of Query Results)
• Framework allows for additional
  visualizations to be constructed as needed
• Export options also available for manual
  review (e.g. graphml, excel, pdf)
Data Reporting
Data Reporting
Data Reporting
Data Analysis
• Analysis needs to be rooted in the
  operational need:
   “How can I use social media to track and
   understand public attitudes toward my
   product”
• Emphasis on hypothesis generation,
  testing, and experimentation
Data Analysis -> Capture
• Hash tags from an initial subset of Tweets
  fed back into the initial query


          Initial
                              Expanded Query
         Query
                                  Results
         Results


                    Twitter
Data Analysis - Hashtags
• Top hashtags were
  almost all generic /
  more abstract
  – Undermines tracking and
    understanding
  – Top hashtags tied to
    franchise, not to the
    game
Data Analysis - Sentiment
• Converted URLs into derivative sources
• 35% additional sources
• Larger text sources offer potential value with
  sentiment analysis that tweets alone cannot offer
Data Analysis - Sentiment
• Top negative and positive scores provided
  glimpses into aggregate attitudes
• Provide starting points for additional analysis
Data Analysis - Recommendations
• Actionable recommendations allow
  decision makers to make changes
Future Data Analysis
• Initial conclusions should be starting points
  for new analysis
• Broad entity capture allows for:
  – Key influencer identification
  – Clustering of tweets for segmentation
  – Map / Reduce for aggregate functions
Infinit.e’s Hadoop Integration
Expandable Model
• Identify key influencers on specific topics
• Look at relationships between websites /
  blogs and Twitter use (cross-network
  analysis)
Counting and Summing
• “Traditional” business intelligence analytics
  problems solved using aggregate functions:
  –   Sum
  –   Count
  –   Average
  –   Min
  –   Max
  –   Etc.
Clustering - Topic
• Topic Extraction
    – Key words -> Categories
    – Categories -> Related Categories

Keyword       Topic            Key        Value
graphics      graphics         graphics   gameplay.pdf
screenshots   graphics         story      gameplay.pdf
resolution    graphics         company    corporate.txt
quests        story            …          …
zenimax       company          …          …
…             …
Clustering - Geo
Take-Aways
• All data providers can and do change their
  formats; users flock to and abandon
  platforms – what works today may not
  work tomorrow.
• Whatever platform you choose to do
  analysis, make sure it’s open and
  adaptable or your investment may
  degrade over time.
Take Aways (Things to Avoid)
• Data puking (less is more)
• Metrics that cannot be tied to actions
• Visualizations / reports that remove
  context
• Taking dashboards at face value
Take Aways (Things to Do)
•   Segment data rather than work in aggregate
•   Look for the why behind the message
•   Always return to the source material
•   Explore alternative explanations
•   Always consider the ultimate goal

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Building Effective Frameworks for Social Media Analysis

  • 1. Building Effective Frameworks for Social Media Analysis
  • 2. Agenda • Social Media: An INT perspective • Common Analytic Pitfalls • An Analytic Framework • Case Study: Brand Management – Problem Definition – Source Selection – Data Capture – Data Reporting – Data Analysis • Ways Forward, Future Analysis • Questions?
  • 3. Intelligence • Intelligence is information that has been transformed to meet an operational need Operational Lens Data Intelligence
  • 4. Intelligence Cycle No matter what method you use… …analysis is an iterative process
  • 5. Social Media: The INT Perspective Social Media gets the best and worst of three disciplines: HUMINT – HUMINT • Pros: Reveals intentions • Cons: Can be unreliable – OSINT • Pros: Fast, Accessible OSINT SIGINT • Cons: Noise – SIGINT • Pros: Network, High Volume • Cons: Noise
  • 6. Social Media Analysis Goals • Need to have an end-goal with value to the organization (operational lens) • Need to ensure cyclical feedback occurs from collection, processing, analysis, and consumption • Need to make sure that a particular network is the right source for the task
  • 7. Common Misconceptions • Social media is not a panacea – Not everyone uses social media – Users of social media use it unevenly – User behavior changes based on situations • Just because people can talk about anything does not mean they talk about everything all the time.
  • 8. Common Pitfalls • The important thing is often not what people are saying… but why they are saying it. • Reporting tools rarely help dig into the why. • Many common tools, reports, and metrics are actually misleading: – Word clouds atomize message context – Sentiment metrics are often highly inaccurate – Information in aggregate hides more than it reveals
  • 11. Dangers of Disintegration Source: Matthew Auer, Policy Studies Journal, Volume 39, Issue 4, pages 709–736, Nov 2011
  • 12. Analytic Framework • Data Capture (DC) • Data Reporting (DR) • Data Analysis (DA) – 1. What to measure – 2. What the data is saying – 3. What should be done based on the data Source: Avinash Kaushik, Occam’s Razor Blog http://www.kaushik.net/avinash/web-analytics-consulting- framework-smarter-decisions/
  • 13. Analytic Framework Capture Analysis Reporting
  • 14. Choosing a Platform • Social media is still new, evolving; and so is how we use it. – Static approaches to social media are flawed from the outset – No one metric or set of metrics will always let you know what is happening • Need an adaptive platform to facilitate data capture, reporting, and analysis
  • 15. Case Study: Brand Management • Industry: Gaming – Experiencing 10% growth annually – Overall revenue expected to exceed $80 billion by 2014 • In May, Zenimax Online Studios announced Elder Scrolls Online – Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim 2nd largest game of 2011
  • 16. Problem Definition • As a brand manager, how can I use social media to track and understand public attitudes toward my product? • Challenge is getting relevant information – Query too large = false positives – Query too small = miss potential information
  • 17. Source: Twitter • Twitter has some of the best analytic potential – High volume traffic – High volume user-base – Open API • Not without limitations: – 140 characters – Limited historical / lookback
  • 18. Platform: Infinit.e Infinit.e is a scalable framework for Visualizing Analyzing Retrieving Enriching Storing Collecting Unstructured documents & Structured records
  • 19. Platform: Infinit.e • Infinit.e supports the extraction of entities and creation of associations using a combination of built in enrichment libraries and 3rd party NLP APIs.
  • 20. Data Capture – Initial Query • Twitter search for “Elder Scrolls Online” – Simplest possible way to access information – RSS feed for 10 days (Jun 27 – July 6 2012)
  • 21. Data Capture - Tagging { "_id": "4fea6ddce4b0fa6316c7e07a", "communityIds": ["4fce07a1e4b06dc8a9107f3b"], "created": "Jun 26, 2012 10:20:12 PM", "description": "Twitter search for "Elder Scrolls Online" - started 6/26/2012", "extractType": "Feed", "tags": [ "games", "social", "entertainment" ], "title": "Elder Scrolls Online - Twitter“ "url": "http://search.twitter.com/search.rss?q=Elder%20Scrolls%20Online", "useExtractor": "AlchemyAPI-metadata", "useTextExtractor": "none“ ... }
  • 22. Data Capture – Entity Map Hashtag TwitterHandle URL Who TwitterHandle What Hashtags, Keywords, URLs When Time, Date Unstructured Keywords Where Time / Date Stamp Geo (if Available)
  • 23. Data Reporting • Used Infinit.e’s Flash U/I Widget Framework – Document Browser (Individual Tweets) – Entity Significance (Top Entities) – Sentiment (Top Entities w/ Sentiment) – Query Metrics (Breakdowns of Query Results) • Framework allows for additional visualizations to be constructed as needed • Export options also available for manual review (e.g. graphml, excel, pdf)
  • 27. Data Analysis • Analysis needs to be rooted in the operational need: “How can I use social media to track and understand public attitudes toward my product” • Emphasis on hypothesis generation, testing, and experimentation
  • 28. Data Analysis -> Capture • Hash tags from an initial subset of Tweets fed back into the initial query Initial Expanded Query Query Results Results Twitter
  • 29. Data Analysis - Hashtags • Top hashtags were almost all generic / more abstract – Undermines tracking and understanding – Top hashtags tied to franchise, not to the game
  • 30. Data Analysis - Sentiment • Converted URLs into derivative sources • 35% additional sources • Larger text sources offer potential value with sentiment analysis that tweets alone cannot offer
  • 31. Data Analysis - Sentiment • Top negative and positive scores provided glimpses into aggregate attitudes • Provide starting points for additional analysis
  • 32. Data Analysis - Recommendations • Actionable recommendations allow decision makers to make changes
  • 33. Future Data Analysis • Initial conclusions should be starting points for new analysis • Broad entity capture allows for: – Key influencer identification – Clustering of tweets for segmentation – Map / Reduce for aggregate functions
  • 35. Expandable Model • Identify key influencers on specific topics • Look at relationships between websites / blogs and Twitter use (cross-network analysis)
  • 36. Counting and Summing • “Traditional” business intelligence analytics problems solved using aggregate functions: – Sum – Count – Average – Min – Max – Etc.
  • 37. Clustering - Topic • Topic Extraction – Key words -> Categories – Categories -> Related Categories Keyword Topic Key Value graphics graphics graphics gameplay.pdf screenshots graphics story gameplay.pdf resolution graphics company corporate.txt quests story … … zenimax company … … … …
  • 39. Take-Aways • All data providers can and do change their formats; users flock to and abandon platforms – what works today may not work tomorrow. • Whatever platform you choose to do analysis, make sure it’s open and adaptable or your investment may degrade over time.
  • 40. Take Aways (Things to Avoid) • Data puking (less is more) • Metrics that cannot be tied to actions • Visualizations / reports that remove context • Taking dashboards at face value
  • 41. Take Aways (Things to Do) • Segment data rather than work in aggregate • Look for the why behind the message • Always return to the source material • Explore alternative explanations • Always consider the ultimate goal

Editor's Notes

  • #7: Given my background, I come at the social media problem from an intelligence analysis perspective. This comes with a certain set of vocabulary and paradigms, but I believe they are useful for understanding how to frame out an effective analytic framework.