Campaign Management
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This document discusses various aspects of political campaign management and strategy. It covers topics such as defining objectives, developing messages, targeting audiences, organizing grassroots efforts, and using negative campaigning. Some key points discussed are that strategy is the cerebral process of structuring a campaign to achieve victory, the importance of staying on message, and that negative campaigning requires following clear rules to be effective.
Campaign Management
- 1. Campaign Management US-professionalism, strategy, organisation, message development, negative campaigning
- 2. „Winners induce by more than rhetorical attraction. Typically they win because they have set up the situation in such a way that other people will want to join them – or will feel forced by circumstances to join them – even without persuasion at all. And this is what heresthetics is all about: structuring the world so you can win.“ William H. Riker, The Art of Political Manipulation
- 3. US-campaigns are... • Candidate oriented • Professionally managed (spin docs) • A money game • TV- and since 08 internet- centered • Negative Campaigning • Micro-messages • Constant campaigning
- 4. Transferability • Define your candidacy/fencing off opponent • Methods of message development • Stay on message • Message unity • Agenda setting/issue management • Persons and emotions • Strategic steps: – Positioning – Message sequence – Timing and intensity – Persuasion and/or mobilization – Opportunity
- 6. „Allmen can see these tactics whereby I conquer, but what none can see is the strategy out of which victory is evolved.“ Sun Tzu, The Art of War
- 7. „Der Krieg ist eine bloße Fortsetzung der Politik mit anderen Mitteln.“ Carl von Clausewitz, Vom Kriege
- 8. Strategic Principles • For most, the pursuit of power is central (also journalists) • Spend time on defining your exact objective – defining the strategy is a cerebral process • Try to be unpredictable • Military principle: OODA-loop (observe, orient, decide, act) – you have to be prepared to refine your tactics • Oppo ‘s mindset in background (their opportunities) • Strategy is there to reduce the uncertainty involved • Observe dominant strategies
- 9. Game theory ◘ A scientific approach to reduce uncertainty ◘ helps you to map the landscape e.g. prisoner’s dilemma; Battle of the Bismarck Sea Person A confess deny confess Person B deny
- 10. Game Theory • For most, the pursuit of power is central (also journalists) • Spend time on defining your exact objective – defining the strategy is a cerebral process • Try to be unpredictable • Military principle: OODA-loop (observe, orient, decide, act) – you have to be prepared to refine your tactics • Oppo ‘s mindset in background (their opportunities) • Strategy is there to reduce the uncertainty involved • Observe dominant strategies
- 11. Begin with the end in mind, then move backwards. Strategy – Central part of each campaign Difference Strategy-taktics – D-Day – Schüssel/Molterer – Gusenbauer/Faymann – Currently: Styria/Vienna
- 12. What‘s a spin doctor? • The spin doctor manages the campaign • He decides on strategy and tactics • Prepares the candidate for debates and public appearances • Tries to enforce the right „spin“ on messages • Stays in contact with the media
- 14. What‘s a political campaign? A series of communication-events with the purpose to establish an emotional link between candidate and voter in order to get the voter to make a certain decision and act accordingly.
- 15. The War Room Concept US HQ – 600 people each • Opposition Research • Free Media and Paid Media • Strategy • Polling • Internal communication/organization • Grassroots/mobilization • Fundraising (each 600 Mio $ in 04)
- 16. Targeting Analyzing the audience • Three clusters: supporters, opponents, undecideds • Forget about the opponents • Depending on the situation: Focus on undecideds, only supporters or even the opponent‘s soft support
- 17. Grassroots/Basismobilisierung • Decisive element in campaigns lately (Bush vs Kerry, Austria, Vienna, ORF) • „Hot“ medium: personal contact • Has to be organized: volunteers • USA: Bush/Cheney – 63.000 precinct captains • Personal motivation is key (responsibility)
- 18. Grassroots II • Winning ground war more and more important • Weaker turnouts (see Austria, Vienna, US) • Message: Hot media (ph, DM, door-to-door) faster than cold (TV, papers) • Personal contacts always more credible • Targeting operations are much easier • Internet for mobilization of own forces (meetups etc.) • More in public affairs sessions
- 19. Obama • 5 million active supporters • 3 million small donors • Precinct-Captains like Bush • Training in „Obama“-camps (up to 7.000 per weekend) • Pyramid structure (internal circles to messengers) • GOTV-Operations: calls; E-Mails; door-to- door-canvassing
- 21. „Heute ist der stolzeste Satz, den jemand in der freien Welt sagen kann: "Ich bin ein Berliner!" Wenn es in der Welt Menschen geben sollte, die nicht wissen, worum es heute in der Auseinandersetzung zwischen der freien Welt und dem Kommunismus geht, dann können wir ihnen nur sagen, sie sollen nach Berlin kommen.“ John F. Kennedy vor dem Schöneburger Rathaus, 1963
- 22. „Heuer gibt es eine "Schöne Bescherung" für alle, die ihren verdienten Ruhestand genießen, oder sich darauf freuen: Die ÖVP wollte Pensionen kürzen und das Pensionsalter überfallsartig erhöhen! Das habe ich persönlich verhindert. Um trotzdem auf die Pensionen zugreifen zu können, wollte die ÖVP Neuwahlen. Ausgerechnet eine Woche vor Weihnachten!“ Franz Vranitzky, Pensionistenbrief, 7.12.1995
- 23. How TV works • „Stories“ crucial • Formula: 70 – 23 – 7 • 4 basic stories – AGON: Competition (sports etc.) – ALEA: Fate – ILINX: Conspiracy – MIMIKRI: Show/travesty
- 24. Current stories • Obama 08 = Cinderella • No story as Commander in Chief • Bush = John Wayne • Tea Party = Story of Independence • Häupl = Lord of the Rings • Strache = Robin Hood • Marek/Vassilakou = ??
- 26. The message is crucial • The central step in designing a campaign plan: You‘re lost without a message! • Has to be in line with the targeting profile • Don‘t forget about your party/candidate image (exc. Blair, Clinton, Schröder) • Don‘t forget about the likely messages of your opponents
- 27. Designing a USP • Concentrate your own strengths against the weak points of your opponent • Concentrate on a few, easily remembered points • Be distinguishable
- 28. Framing/Wording • Words frame a debate (Neue Mittelschule vs Gesamtschule) • Negations are not heard – they enforce the frame („keine sozial kalte Partei“) • Reframing only way out (new definition of the frame) • Estate tax vs Death tax • War on Terror vs Invasion of Iraq
- 29. Techniques I • Message Box – First step to get an overview and distill key positions/ images/inoculation points • Message Triangle (Botschaftendreieck) – Method to reduce complexity in a campaign • Result: the message in three to five lines
- 30. Message Box Overview concerning key positions, images, vulnerabilities Molterer Faymann Molterer Faymann
- 31. Bill Clinton 1992 Change Rebuild People economy first
- 32. Clinton/Obama Change Change People first Rebuild economy Empowering people Rebuild economy
- 33. Werner Faymann 2008 Stilwende Rasch in der Der Mensch Krise helfen zuerst
- 34. Techniques II • Message pyramid – Represents different levels of a discussion • Stay on message – Doesn‘t mean repeating the same sentence • Unity • Test your message • Triangulation
- 35. Message Pyramid concepts numbers&figures case studies
- 36. Negative Campaigning • „Comeback kid“ Clinton as model • „Dirty campaigning“ avoided • The Art of attack – Clear rules to follow
- 37. Top 10 of NC (I) 1. Attention: Pflege versus BAWAG 2. Contrast and Emotion: SW-pics; contrasting ads (FP: Daham statt Islam) 3. Logic/Relevance/Dokumentation: you‘ve to have „proof“ 4. Credibility: Test your messages 5. Fear: PKW-Maut; Verkauf des Wassers versus Haschtrafiken
- 38. Top 10 of NC (II) 6. Own strengths versus opponent‘s vulnerabilities: Sozialkompetenz gegen Kälte 7. Timing: BAWAG in spring 8. Everyone is able to attack: Even incumbents 9. Humor: Always best 10. Outsource attacks: SP 2008; third parties are more credible
- 39. Chances/Dangers Chancen – Media attention – Emotion (Mobilization) – Offense vs Defense – Opponent can‘t attack Risks – Backfiring – Mobilization of opponents – Producing non-voters
- 40. Campaign strategy I Positioning strategies – Personal virtues&flaws; ideological/partisan differences; situations (change, continuity) – Goals: enhance or blur differences – Framing the choice; inoculate candidate Message sequence strategies – Ignore oppo (remain positive) – Classic (positive; only respond neg; end pos) – Aggressive (open +; - before oppo; respond; close as required) – Frontal assault (open comparative/-; then +; close as required) – Relentless attack (open/maintain -; later +/-; close as required)
- 41. Campaign strategy II Timing and intensity strategies – Tortoise: start slow – build all the way – Bookend: Open big/loud; then slow building; close big/loud – Pearl Harbour: start quietly (oppo underestimates u; surprise attack; close big/loud – Hold your fire: slow building; big/loud closing Persuasion and mobilization strategies – Traditional: (reinforce) base; identify/win undecideds, turn out – Base strategy: reinforce base and turn it out – Marion Barry: reinforce base – enlarge it (by attacking others) – turn it out – Opportunity strategies: set traps, technological advantage etc.
- 42. Learnings • Campaigns DO matter • Messages count • You‘ve to have your spin docs in place • Relevant on all levels
- 43. „Winners induce by more than rhetorical attraction. Typically they win because they have set up the situation in such a way that other people will want to join them – or will feel forced by circumstances to join them – even without persuasion at all. And this is what heresthetics is all about: structuring the world so you can win.“ William H. Riker, The Art of Political Manipulation