Ch03HullFundamentals9thEd.ppt human resource

Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 9th Ed, Ch3, Copyright © John C. Hull 2016
Hedging Strategies Using
Futures
Chapter 3
1

Long & Short Hedges
 A long futures hedge is appropriate when
you know you will purchase an asset in
the future and want to lock in the price
 A short futures hedge is appropriate
when you know you will sell an asset in
the future and want to lock in the price
2

Arguments in Favor of Hedging
Companies should focus on the main
business they are in and take steps to
minimize risks arising from interest
rates, exchange rates, and other market
variables
3

Arguments against Hedging
 Shareholders are usually well diversified
and can make their own hedging decisions
 It may increase risk to hedge when
competitors do not
 Explaining a situation where there is a loss
on the hedge and a gain on the underlying
can be difficult
4

Basis Risk
 Basis is the difference between
spot & futures
 Basis risk arises because of the
uncertainty about the basis
when the hedge is closed out
5

Long Hedge for Purchase of an Asset
 Define
F1 : Futures price at time hedge is set up
F2 : Futures price at time asset is purchased
S2 : Asset price at time of purchase
b2 : Basis at time of purchase
Fundamentals of Futures and Options Markets, 9th Ed, Ch3, Copyright © John C. Hull 2016 6
Cost of asset S2
Gain on Futures F2 −F1
Net amount paid S2 − (F2 −F1) =F1 + b2

Short Hedge for Sale of an Asset
Define
F1 : Futures price at time hedge is set up
F2 : Futures price at time asset is sold
S2 : Asset price at time of sale
b2 : Basis at time of sale
Price of asset S2
Gain on Futures F1 −F2
Net amount received S2 + (F1 −F2) =F1 + b2

Choice of Contract
 Choose a delivery month that is as close
as possible to, but later than, the end of
the life of the hedge
 When there is no futures contract on the
asset being hedged, choose the contract
whose futures price is most highly
correlated with the asset price. There are
then 2 components to basis
8

Optimal Hedge Ratio
Proportion of the exposure that should optimally be
hedged is
where
sS is the standard deviation of DS, the change in the
spot price during the hedging period,
sF is the standard deviation of DF, the change in the
futures price during the hedging period
r is the coefficient of correlation between DS and DF.
F
S
h
s
s
r


9

Example 3.5 (Page 62)
 Airline will purchase 2 million gallons of jet fuel
in one month and hedges using heating oil
futures
 From historical data sF =0.0313, sS =0.0263, and
r= 0.928
 Optimal number of contracts is
0.78×2,000,000/42,000 which rounds to 37
* 0.0263
0.928 0.78
0.0313
h   

Alternative Definition of Optimal
Hedge Ratio
 Optimal hedge ratio is
where variables are defined as follows
ˆ
ˆ ˆ
ˆ
S
F
h
s
r
s

Correlation between percentage daily changes for
spot and futures
SD of percentage daily changes in spot
SD of percentage daily changes in futures
r̂
ˆS
s
ˆF
s

Optimal Number of Contracts
QA Size of position being hedged (units)
QF Size of one futures contract (units)
VA Value of position being hedged (=spot price time QA)
VF Value of one futures contract (=futures price times QF)
Optimal number of contracts if
no adjustment for daily
settlement
F
A
Q
Q
h*

Optimal number of contracts
after “tailing adjustment” to
allow or daily settlement of
futures
ˆ
A
F
hV
V


Hedging Using Index Futures
(Page 65)
To hedge the risk in a portfolio the
number of contracts that should be
shorted is
where VA is the current value of the
portfolio, b is its beta, and VF is the
current value of one futures (=futures
price times contract size)
F
A
V
V
b
13

Example
Futures price of S&P 500 is 1,000
Size of portfolio is $5 million
Beta of portfolio is 1.5
One contract is on $250 times the index
What position in futures contracts on the
S&P 500 is necessary to hedge the
portfolio?
14

Changing Beta
 What position is necessary to reduce the
beta of the portfolio to 0.75?
 What position is necessary to increase the
beta of the portfolio to 2.0?
15

Why Hedge Equity Returns?
 May want to be out of the market for a while.
Hedging avoids the costs of selling and
repurchasing the portfolio
 Suppose stocks in your portfolio have an
average beta of 1.0, but you feel they have been
chosen well and will outperform the market in
both good and bad times. Hedging ensures that
the return you earn is the risk-free return plus
the excess return of your portfolio over the
market.

Stack and Roll (page 69-70)
 We can roll futures contracts forward to
hedge future exposures
 Initially we enter into futures contracts to
hedge exposures up to a time horizon
 Just before maturity we close them out an
replace them with new contract reflect the
new exposure
 etc

Liquidity Issues (See Business Snapshot 3.2)
 In any hedging situation there is a danger that
losses will be realized on the hedge while the
gains on the underlying exposure are
unrealized
 This can create liquidity problems
 One example is Metallgesellschaft which sold
long term fixed-price contracts on heating oil
and gasoline and hedged using stack and roll
 The price of oil fell.....

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