Ch06

April 20, 2014 Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques 1
Chapter 6. Classification and Prediction
 What is classification? What is
prediction?
 Issues regarding classification
and prediction
 Classification by decision tree
induction
 Bayesian classification
 Rule-based classification
 Classification by back
propagation
 Support Vector Machines (SVM)
 Associative classification
 Other classification methods
 Prediction
 Accuracy and error measures
 Ensemble methods
 Model selection
 Summary

 Classification
 predicts categorical class labels (discrete or nominal)
 classifies data (constructs a model) based on the
training set and the values (class labels) in a
classifying attribute and uses it in classifying new data
 Prediction
 models continuous-valued functions, i.e., predicts
unknown or missing values
 Typical applications
 Credit approval
 Target marketing
 Medical diagnosis
 Fraud detection
Classification vs. Prediction

Classification—A Two-Step Process
 Model construction: describing a set of predetermined classes
 Each tuple/sample is assumed to belong to a predefined
class, as determined by the class label attribute
 The set of tuples used for model construction is training set
 The model is represented as classification rules, decision
trees, or mathematical formulae
 Model usage: for classifying future or unknown objects
 Estimate accuracy of the model
 The known label of test sample is compared with the
classified result from the model
 Accuracy rate is the percentage of test set samples that are
correctly classified by the model
 Test set is independent of training set, otherwise over-fitting
will occur
 If the accuracy is acceptable, use the model to classify data
tuples whose class labels are not known

Process (1): Model Construction
Training
Data
NAME RANK YEARS TENURED
Mike Assistant Prof 3 no
Mary Assistant Prof 7 yes
Bill Professor 2 yes
Jim Associate Prof 7 yes
Dave Assistant Prof 6 no
Anne Associate Prof 3 no
Classification
Algorithms
IF rank = ‘professor’
OR years > 6
THEN tenured = ‘yes’
Classifier
(Model)

Process (2): Using the Model in Prediction
Classifier
Testing
Data
NAME RANK YEARS TENURED
Tom Assistant Prof 2 no
Merlisa Associate Prof 7 no
George Professor 5 yes
Joseph Assistant Prof 7 yes
Unseen Data
(Jeff, Professor, 4)
Tenured?

Supervised vs. Unsupervised Learning
 Supervised learning (classification)
 Supervision: The training data (observations,
measurements, etc.) are accompanied by labels
indicating the class of the observations
 New data is classified based on the training set
 Unsupervised learning (clustering)
 The class labels of training data is unknown
 Given a set of measurements, observations, etc. with
the aim of establishing the existence of classes or
clusters in the data

prediction?
and prediction
induction
propagation
 Prediction
 Model selection
 Summary

Issues: Data Preparation
 Data cleaning
 Preprocess data in order to reduce noise and handle
missing values
 Relevance analysis (feature selection)
 Remove the irrelevant or redundant attributes
 Data transformation
 Generalize and/or normalize data

Issues: Evaluating Classification Methods
 Accuracy
 classifier accuracy: predicting class label
 predictor accuracy: guessing value of predicted
attributes
 Speed
 time to construct the model (training time)
 time to use the model (classification/prediction time)
 Robustness: handling noise and missing values
 Scalability: efficiency in disk-resident databases
 Interpretability
 understanding and insight provided by the model
 Other measures, e.g., goodness of rules, such as decision
tree size or compactness of classification rules

prediction?
and prediction
induction
propagation
 Prediction
 Model selection
 Summary

Decision Tree Induction: Training Dataset
age income student credit_rating buys_computer
<=30 high no fair no
<=30 high no excellent no
31…40 high no fair yes
>40 medium no fair yes
>40 low yes fair yes
>40 low yes excellent no
31…40 low yes excellent yes
<=30 medium no fair no
<=30 low yes fair yes
>40 medium yes fair yes
<=30 medium yes excellent yes
31…40 medium no excellent yes
31…40 high yes fair yes
>40 medium no excellent no
This
follows an
example
of
Quinlan‘s
ID3
(Playing
Tennis)

Output: A Decision Tree for “buys_computer”
age?
overcast
student? credit rating?
<=30 >40
no yes yes
yes
31..40
fairexcellentyesno

Algorithm for Decision Tree Induction
 Basic algorithm (a greedy algorithm)
 Tree is constructed in a top-down recursive divide-and-conquer
manner
 At start, all the training examples are at the root
 Attributes are categorical (if continuous-valued, they are
discretized in advance)
 Examples are partitioned recursively based on selected attributes
 Test attributes are selected on the basis of a heuristic or
statistical measure (e.g., information gain)
 Conditions for stopping partitioning
 All samples for a given node belong to the same class
 There are no remaining attributes for further partitioning –
majority voting is employed for classifying the leaf
 There are no samples left

Attribute Selection Measure:
Information Gain (ID3/C4.5)
 Select the attribute with the highest information gain
 Let pi be the probability that an arbitrary tuple in D
belongs to class Ci, estimated by |Ci, D|/|D|
 Expected information (entropy) needed to classify a tuple
in D:
 Information needed (after using A to split D into v
partitions) to classify D:
 Information gained by branching on attribute A
)(log)( 2
1
i
m
i
i ppDInfo
)(
||
||
)(
1
j
v
j
j
A DI
D
D
DInfo
(D)InfoInfo(D)Gain(A) A

Attribute Selection: Information Gain
 Class P: buys_computer = ―yes‖
 Class N: buys_computer = ―no‖
means ―age <=30‖ has 5
out of 14 samples, with 2 yes‘es
and 3 no‘s. Hence
Similarly,
age pi ni I(pi, ni)
<=30 2 3 0.971
31…40 4 0 0
>40 3 2 0.971
694.0)2,3(
14
5
)0,4(
14
4
)3,2(
14
5
)(
I
IIDInfoage
048.0)_(
151.0)(
029.0)(
ratingcreditGain
studentGain
incomeGain
246.0)()()( DInfoDInfoageGain age
age income student credit_rating buys_computer
)3,2(
14
5
I
940.0)
14
5
(log
14
5
)
14
9
(log
14
9
)5,9()( 22IDInfo

Enhancements to Basic Decision Tree Induction
 Allow for continuous-valued attributes
 Dynamically define new discrete-valued attributes that
partition the continuous attribute value into a discrete
set of intervals
 Handle missing attribute values
 Assign the most common value of the attribute
 Assign probability to each of the possible values
 Attribute construction
 Create new attributes based on existing ones that are
sparsely represented
 This reduces fragmentation, repetition, and replication

Classification in Large Databases
 Classification—a classical problem extensively studied by
statisticians and machine learning researchers
 Scalability: Classifying data sets with millions of examples
and hundreds of attributes with reasonable speed
 Why decision tree induction in data mining?
 relatively faster learning speed (than other classification
methods)
 convertible to simple and easy to understand
classification rules
 can use SQL queries for accessing databases
 comparable classification accuracy with other methods

Scalable Decision Tree Induction Methods
 SLIQ (EDBT‘96 — Mehta et al.)
 Builds an index for each attribute and only class list and
the current attribute list reside in memory
 SPRINT (VLDB‘96 — J. Shafer et al.)
 Constructs an attribute list data structure
 PUBLIC (VLDB‘98 — Rastogi & Shim)
 Integrates tree splitting and tree pruning: stop growing
the tree earlier
 RainForest (VLDB‘98 — Gehrke, Ramakrishnan & Ganti)
 Builds an AVC-list (attribute, value, class label)
 BOAT (PODS‘99 — Gehrke, Ganti, Ramakrishnan & Loh)
 Uses bootstrapping to create several small samples

Scalability Framework for RainForest
 Separates the scalability aspects from the criteria that
determine the quality of the tree
 Builds an AVC-list: AVC (Attribute, Value, Class_label)
 AVC-set (of an attribute X )
 Projection of training dataset onto the attribute X and
class label where counts of individual class label are
aggregated
 AVC-group (of a node n )
 Set of AVC-sets of all predictor attributes at the node n

Rainforest: Training Set and Its AVC Sets
student Buy_Computer
yes no
yes 6 1
no 3 4
Age Buy_Computer
yes no
<=30 3 2
31..40 4 0
>40 3 2
Credit
rating
Buy_Computer
yes no
fair 6 2
excellent 3 3
age income studentcredit_ratingbuys_computer
AVC-set on incomeAVC-set on Age
AVC-set on Student
Training Examples
income Buy_Computer
yes no
high 2 2
medium 4 2
low 3 1
AVC-set on
credit_rating

BOAT (Bootstrapped Optimistic Algorithm
for Tree Construction)
 Use a statistical technique called bootstrapping to create
several smaller samples (subsets), each fits in memory
 Each subset is used to create a tree, resulting in several
trees
 These trees are examined and used to construct a new
tree T’
 It turns out that T’ is very close to the tree that would
be generated using the whole data set together
 Adv: requires only two scans of DB, an incremental alg.

Presentation of Classification Results

Visualization of a Decision Tree in SGI/MineSet 3.0

Interactive Visual Mining by Perception-Based
Classification (PBC)

prediction?
and prediction
induction
propagation
 Prediction
 Model selection
 Summary

Bayesian Classification: Why?
 A statistical classifier: performs probabilistic prediction,
i.e., predicts class membership probabilities
 Foundation: Based on Bayes‘ Theorem.
 Performance: A simple Bayesian classifier, naïve Bayesian
classifier, has comparable performance with decision tree
and selected neural network classifiers
 Incremental: Each training example can incrementally
increase/decrease the probability that a hypothesis is
correct — prior knowledge can be combined with observed
data
 Standard: Even when Bayesian methods are
computationally intractable, they can provide a standard
of optimal decision making against which other methods
can be measured

Bayesian Theorem: Basics
 Let X be a data sample (―evidence‖): class label is unknown
 Let H be a hypothesis that X belongs to class C
 Classification is to determine P(H|X), the probability that
the hypothesis holds given the observed data sample X
 P(H) (prior probability), the initial probability
 E.g., X will buy computer, regardless of age, income, …
 P(X): probability that sample data is observed
 P(X|H) (posteriori probability), the probability of observing
the sample X, given that the hypothesis holds
 E.g., Given that X will buy computer, the prob. that X is
31..40, medium income

Bayesian Theorem
 Given training data X, posteriori probability of a
hypothesis H, P(H|X), follows the Bayes theorem
 Informally, this can be written as
posteriori = likelihood x prior/evidence
 Predicts X belongs to C2 iff the probability P(Ci|X) is the
highest among all the P(Ck|X) for all the k classes
 Practical difficulty: require initial knowledge of many
probabilities, significant computational cost
)(
)()|()|(
X
XX
P
HPHPHP

Towards Naïve Bayesian Classifier
 Let D be a training set of tuples and their associated class
labels, and each tuple is represented by an n-D attribute
vector X = (x1, x2, …, xn)
 Suppose there are m classes C1, C2, …, Cm.
 Classification is to derive the maximum posteriori, i.e., the
maximal P(Ci|X)
 This can be derived from Bayes‘ theorem
 Since P(X) is constant for all classes, only
needs to be maximized
)(
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X
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Derivation of Naïve Bayes Classifier
 A simplified assumption: attributes are conditionally
independent (i.e., no dependence relation between
attributes):
 This greatly reduces the computation cost: Only counts
the class distribution
 If Ak is categorical, P(xk|Ci) is the # of tuples in Ci having
value xk for Ak divided by |Ci, D| (# of tuples of Ci in D)
 If Ak is continous-valued, P(xk|Ci) is usually computed
based on Gaussian distribution with a mean μ and
standard deviation σ
and P(xk|Ci) is
)|(...)|()|(
1
)|()|(
21
CixPCixPCixP
n
k
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),,(
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exg
),,()|( ii CCkxgCiP X

Naïve Bayesian Classifier: Training Dataset
Class:
C1:buys_computer = ‗yes‘
C2:buys_computer = ‗no‘
Data sample
X = (age <=30,
Income = medium,
Student = yes
Credit_rating = Fair)
age income studentcredit_ratingbuys_compu

Naïve Bayesian Classifier: An Example
 P(Ci): P(buys_computer = ―yes‖) = 9/14 = 0.643
P(buys_computer = ―no‖) = 5/14= 0.357
 Compute P(X|Ci) for each class
P(age = ―<=30‖ | buys_computer = ―yes‖) = 2/9 = 0.222
P(age = ―<= 30‖ | buys_computer = ―no‖) = 3/5 = 0.6
P(income = ―medium‖ | buys_computer = ―yes‖) = 4/9 = 0.444
P(income = ―medium‖ | buys_computer = ―no‖) = 2/5 = 0.4
P(student = ―yes‖ | buys_computer = ―yes) = 6/9 = 0.667
P(student = ―yes‖ | buys_computer = ―no‖) = 1/5 = 0.2
P(credit_rating = ―fair‖ | buys_computer = ―yes‖) = 6/9 = 0.667
P(credit_rating = ―fair‖ | buys_computer = ―no‖) = 2/5 = 0.4
 X = (age <= 30 , income = medium, student = yes, credit_rating = fair)
P(X|Ci) : P(X|buys_computer = ―yes‖) = 0.222 x 0.444 x 0.667 x 0.667 = 0.044
P(X|buys_computer = ―no‖) = 0.6 x 0.4 x 0.2 x 0.4 = 0.019
P(X|Ci)*P(Ci) : P(X|buys_computer = ―yes‖) * P(buys_computer = ―yes‖) = 0.028
P(X|buys_computer = ―no‖) * P(buys_computer = ―no‖) = 0.007
Therefore, X belongs to class (“buys_computer = yes”)

Avoiding the 0-Probability Problem
 Naïve Bayesian prediction requires each conditional prob. be non-
zero. Otherwise, the predicted prob. will be zero
 Ex. Suppose a dataset with 1000 tuples, income=low (0), income=
medium (990), and income = high (10),
 Use Laplacian correction (or Laplacian estimator)
 Adding 1 to each case
Prob(income = low) = 1/1003
Prob(income = medium) = 991/1003
Prob(income = high) = 11/1003
 The ―corrected‖ prob. estimates are close to their ―uncorrected‖
counterparts
n
k
CixkPCiXP
1
)|()|(

Naïve Bayesian Classifier: Comments
 Advantages
 Easy to implement
 Good results obtained in most of the cases
 Disadvantages
 Assumption: class conditional independence, therefore
loss of accuracy
 Practically, dependencies exist among variables
 E.g., hospitals: patients: Profile: age, family history, etc.
Symptoms: fever, cough etc., Disease: lung cancer, diabetes, etc.
 Dependencies among these cannot be modeled by Naïve
Bayesian Classifier
 How to deal with these dependencies?
 Bayesian Belief Networks

Bayesian Belief Networks
 Bayesian belief network allows a subset of the variables
conditionally independent
 A graphical model of causal relationships
 Represents dependency among the variables
 Gives a specification of joint probability distribution
X Y
Z
P
 Nodes: random variables
 Links: dependency
 X and Y are the parents of Z, and Y is
the parent of P
 No dependency between Z and P
 Has no loops or cycles

Bayesian Belief Network: An Example
Family
History
LungCancer
PositiveXRay
Smoker
Emphysema
Dyspnea
LC
~LC
(FH, S) (FH, ~S) (~FH, S) (~FH, ~S)
0.8
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.9
Bayesian Belief Networks
The conditional probability table
(CPT) for variable LungCancer:
n
i
YParents ixiPxxP n
1
))(|(),...,( 1
CPT shows the conditional probability for
each possible combination of its parents
Derivation of the probability of a
particular combination of values of
X, from CPT:

Training Bayesian Networks
 Several scenarios:
 Given both the network structure and all variables
observable: learn only the CPTs
 Network structure known, some hidden variables:
gradient descent (greedy hill-climbing) method,
analogous to neural network learning
 Network structure unknown, all variables observable:
search through the model space to reconstruct
network topology
 Unknown structure, all hidden variables: No good
algorithms known for this purpose
 Ref. D. Heckerman: Bayesian networks for data mining

prediction?
and prediction
induction
propagation
 Prediction
 Model selection
 Summary

Using IF-THEN Rules for Classification
 Represent the knowledge in the form of IF-THEN rules
R: IF age = youth AND student = yes THEN buys_computer = yes
 Rule antecedent/precondition vs. rule consequent
 Assessment of a rule: coverage and accuracy
 ncovers = # of tuples covered by R
 ncorrect = # of tuples correctly classified by R
coverage(R) = ncovers /|D| /* D: training data set */
accuracy(R) = ncorrect / ncovers
 If more than one rule is triggered, need conflict resolution
 Size ordering: assign the highest priority to the triggering rules that has
the ―toughest‖ requirement (i.e., with the most attribute test)
 Class-based ordering: decreasing order of prevalence or misclassification
cost per class
 Rule-based ordering (decision list): rules are organized into one long
priority list, according to some measure of rule quality or by experts

age?
student? credit rating?
<=30 >40
no yes yes
yes
31..40
fairexcellentyesno
 Example: Rule extraction from our buys_computer decision-tree
IF age = young AND student = no THEN buys_computer = no
IF age = young AND student = yes THEN buys_computer = yes
IF age = mid-age THEN buys_computer = yes
IF age = old AND credit_rating = excellent THEN buys_computer = yes
IF age = young AND credit_rating = fair THEN buys_computer = no
Rule Extraction from a Decision Tree
 Rules are easier to understand than large trees
 One rule is created for each path from the root
to a leaf
 Each attribute-value pair along a path forms a
conjunction: the leaf holds the class prediction
 Rules are mutually exclusive and exhaustive

Rule Extraction from the Training Data
 Sequential covering algorithm: Extracts rules directly from training data
 Typical sequential covering algorithms: FOIL, AQ, CN2, RIPPER
 Rules are learned sequentially, each for a given class Ci will cover many
tuples of Ci but none (or few) of the tuples of other classes
 Steps:
 Rules are learned one at a time
 Each time a rule is learned, the tuples covered by the rules are
removed
 The process repeats on the remaining tuples unless termination
condition, e.g., when no more training examples or when the quality
of a rule returned is below a user-specified threshold
 Comp. w. decision-tree induction: learning a set of rules simultaneously

prediction?
and prediction
induction
propagation
 Prediction
 Model selection
 Summary

 Classification:
 predicts categorical class labels
 E.g., Personal homepage classification
 xi = (x1, x2, x3, …), yi = +1 or –1
 x1 : # of a word ―homepage‖
 x2 : # of a word ―welcome‖
 Mathematically
 x X = n, y Y = {+1, –1}
 We want a function f: X  Y
Classification: A Mathematical Mapping

Linear Classification
 Binary Classification
problem
 The data above the red
line belongs to class ‗x‘
 The data below red line
belongs to class ‗o‘
 Examples: SVM,
Perceptron, Probabilistic
Classifiers
x
xx
x
xx
x
x
x
x
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o o
o
o
o

Discriminative Classifiers
 Advantages
 prediction accuracy is generally high
 As compared to Bayesian methods – in general
 robust, works when training examples contain errors
 fast evaluation of the learned target function
 Bayesian networks are normally slow
 Criticism
 long training time
 difficult to understand the learned function (weights)
 Bayesian networks can be used easily for pattern discovery
 not easy to incorporate domain knowledge
 Easy in the form of priors on the data or distributions

Perceptron & Winnow
• Vector: x, w
• Scalar: x, y, w
Input: {(x1, y1), …}
Output: classification function f(x)
f(xi) > 0 for yi = +1
f(xi) < 0 for yi = -1
f(x) => wx + b = 0
or w1x1+w2x2+b = 0
x1
x2
• Perceptron: update W
additively
• Winnow: update W
multiplicatively

Classification by Backpropagation
 Backpropagation: A neural network learning algorithm
 Started by psychologists and neurobiologists to develop
and test computational analogues of neurons
 A neural network: A set of connected input/output units
where each connection has a weight associated with it
 During the learning phase, the network learns by
adjusting the weights so as to be able to predict the
correct class label of the input tuples
 Also referred to as connectionist learning due to the
connections between units

Neural Network as a Classifier
 Weakness
 Long training time
 Require a number of parameters typically best determined
empirically, e.g., the network topology or ``structure."
 Poor interpretability: Difficult to interpret the symbolic meaning
behind the learned weights and of ``hidden units" in the network
 Strength
 High tolerance to noisy data
 Ability to classify untrained patterns
 Well-suited for continuous-valued inputs and outputs
 Successful on a wide array of real-world data
 Algorithms are inherently parallel
 Techniques have recently been developed for the extraction of
rules from trained neural networks

A Neuron (= a perceptron)
 The n-dimensional input vector x is mapped into variable y by
means of the scalar product and a nonlinear function mapping
k-
f
weighted
sum
Input
vector x
output y
Activation
function
weight
vector w
w0
w1
wn
x0
x1
xn
)sign(y
ExampleFor
n
0i
kii xw

A Multi-Layer Feed-Forward Neural Network
Output layer
Input layer
Hidden layer
Output vector
Input vector: X
wij
i
jiijj OwI
jIj
e
O
1
1
))(1( jjjjj OTOOErr
jk
k
kjjj wErrOOErr )1(
ijijij OErrlww )(
jjj Errl)(

How A Multi-Layer Neural Network Works?
 The inputs to the network correspond to the attributes measured
for each training tuple
 Inputs are fed simultaneously into the units making up the input
layer
 They are then weighted and fed simultaneously to a hidden layer
 The number of hidden layers is arbitrary, although usually only one
 The weighted outputs of the last hidden layer are input to units
making up the output layer, which emits the network's prediction
 The network is feed-forward in that none of the weights cycles
back to an input unit or to an output unit of a previous layer
 From a statistical point of view, networks perform nonlinear
regression: Given enough hidden units and enough training
samples, they can closely approximate any function

Defining a Network Topology
 First decide the network topology: # of units in the
input layer, # of hidden layers (if > 1), # of units in each
hidden layer, and # of units in the output layer
 Normalizing the input values for each attribute measured in
the training tuples to [0.0—1.0]
 One input unit per domain value, each initialized to 0
 Output, if for classification and more than two
classes, one output unit per class is used
 Once a network has been trained and its accuracy is
unacceptable, repeat the training process with a different
network topology or a different set of initial weights

Backpropagation
 Iteratively process a set of training tuples & compare the network's
prediction with the actual known target value
 For each training tuple, the weights are modified to minimize the
mean squared error between the network's prediction and the
actual target value
 Modifications are made in the ―backwards‖ direction: from the output
layer, through each hidden layer down to the first hidden layer, hence
―backpropagation‖
 Steps
 Initialize weights (to small random #s) and biases in the network
 Propagate the inputs forward (by applying activation function)
 Backpropagate the error (by updating weights and biases)
 Terminating condition (when error is very small, etc.)

Backpropagation and Interpretability
 Efficiency of backpropagation: Each epoch (one interation through the
training set) takes O(|D| * w), with |D| tuples and w weights, but # of
epochs can be exponential to n, the number of inputs, in the worst
case
 Rule extraction from networks: network pruning
 Simplify the network structure by removing weighted links that
have the least effect on the trained network
 Then perform link, unit, or activation value clustering
 The set of input and activation values are studied to derive rules
describing the relationship between the input and hidden unit
layers
 Sensitivity analysis: assess the impact that a given input variable has
on a network output. The knowledge gained from this analysis can be
represented in rules

prediction?
and prediction
induction
propagation
 Prediction
 Model selection
 Summary

SVM—Support Vector Machines
 A new classification method for both linear and nonlinear
data
 It uses a nonlinear mapping to transform the original
training data into a higher dimension
 With the new dimension, it searches for the linear optimal
separating hyperplane (i.e., ―decision boundary‖)
 With an appropriate nonlinear mapping to a sufficiently
high dimension, data from two classes can always be
separated by a hyperplane
 SVM finds this hyperplane using support vectors
(―essential‖ training tuples) and margins (defined by the
support vectors)

SVM—History and Applications
 Vapnik and colleagues (1992)—groundwork from Vapnik
& Chervonenkis‘ statistical learning theory in 1960s
 Features: training can be slow but accuracy is high owing
to their ability to model complex nonlinear decision
boundaries (margin maximization)
 Used both for classification and prediction
 Applications:
 handwritten digit recognition, object
recognition, speaker identification, benchmarking time-
series prediction tests

SVM—General Philosophy
Support Vectors
Small Margin Large Margin

SVM—Margins and Support Vectors

SVM—When Data Is Linearly Separable
m
Let data D be (X1, y1), …, (X|D|, y|D|), where Xi is the set of training tuples
associated with the class labels yi
There are infinite lines (hyperplanes) separating the two classes but we want to
find the best one (the one that minimizes classification error on unseen data)
SVM searches for the hyperplane with the largest margin, i.e., maximum
marginal hyperplane (MMH)

SVM—Linearly Separable
 A separating hyperplane can be written as
W ● X + b = 0
where W={w1, w2, …, wn} is a weight vector and b a scalar (bias)
 For 2-D it can be written as
w0 + w1 x1 + w2 x2 = 0
 The hyperplane defining the sides of the margin:
H1: w0 + w1 x1 + w2 x2 ≥ 1 for yi = +1, and
H2: w0 + w1 x1 + w2 x2 ≤ – 1 for yi = –1
 Any training tuples that fall on hyperplanes H1 or H2 (i.e., the
sides defining the margin) are support vectors
 This becomes a constrained (convex) quadratic optimization
problem: Quadratic objective function and linear constraints 
Quadratic Programming (QP)  Lagrangian multipliers

Why Is SVM Effective on High Dimensional Data?
 The complexity of trained classifier is characterized by the # of
support vectors rather than the dimensionality of the data
 The support vectors are the essential or critical training examples —
they lie closest to the decision boundary (MMH)
 If all other training examples are removed and the training is
repeated, the same separating hyperplane would be found
 The number of support vectors found can be used to compute an
(upper) bound on the expected error rate of the SVM classifier, which
is independent of the data dimensionality
 Thus, an SVM with a small number of support vectors can have good
generalization, even when the dimensionality of the data is high

SVM—Linearly Inseparable
 Transform the original input data into a higher dimensional
space
 Search for a linear separating hyperplane in the new space
A1
A2

SVM—Kernel functions
 Instead of computing the dot product on the transformed data tuples,
it is mathematically equivalent to instead applying a kernel function
K(Xi, Xj) to the original data, i.e., K(Xi, Xj) = Φ(Xi) Φ(Xj)
 Typical Kernel Functions
 SVM can also be used for classifying multiple (> 2) classes and for
regression analysis (with additional user parameters)

SVM vs. Neural Network
 SVM
 Relatively new concept
 Deterministic algorithm
 Nice Generalization
properties
 Hard to learn – learned
in batch mode using
quadratic programming
techniques
 Using kernels can learn
very complex functions
 Neural Network
 Relatively old
 Nondeterministic
algorithm
 Generalizes well but
doesn‘t have strong
mathematical foundation
 Can easily be learned in
incremental fashion
 To learn complex
functions—use multilayer
perceptron (not that
trivial)

SVM Related Links
 SVM Website
 http://www.kernel-machines.org/
 Representative implementations
 LIBSVM: an efficient implementation of SVM, multi-class
classifications, nu-SVM, one-class SVM, including also various
interfaces with java, python, etc.
 SVM-light: simpler but performance is not better than LIBSVM,
support only binary classification and only C language
 SVM-torch: another recent implementation also written in C.

SVM—Introduction Literature
 ―Statistical Learning Theory‖ by Vapnik: extremely hard to
understand, containing many errors too.
 C. J. C. Burges. A Tutorial on Support Vector Machines for Pattern
Recognition. Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, 2(2), 1998.
 Better than the Vapnik‘s book, but still written too hard for
introduction, and the examples are so not-intuitive
 The book ―An Introduction to Support Vector Machines‖ by N.
Cristianini and J. Shawe-Taylor
 Also written hard for introduction, but the explanation about the
mercer‘s theorem is better than above literatures
 The neural network book by Haykins
 Contains one nice chapter of SVM introduction

prediction?
and prediction
induction
propagation
 Prediction
 Model selection
 Summary

Associative Classification
 Association rules are generated and analyzed for use in classification
 Search for strong associations between frequent patterns
(conjunctions of attribute-value pairs) and class labels
 Classification: Based on evaluating a set of rules in the form of
P1 ^ p2 … ^ pl  ―Aclass = C‖ (conf, sup)
 Why effective?
 It explores highly confident associations among multiple attributes
and may overcome some constraints introduced by decision-tree
induction, which considers only one attribute at a time
 In many studies, associative classification has been found to be more
accurate than some traditional classification methods, such as C4.5

Typical Associative Classification Methods
 CBA (Classification By Association: Liu, Hsu & Ma, KDD‘98)
 Mine association possible rules in the form of
 Cond-set (a set of attribute-value pairs)  class label
 Build classifier: Organize rules according to decreasing precedence
based on confidence and then support
 CMAR (Classification based on Multiple Association Rules: Li, Han, Pei, ICDM‘01)
 Classification: Statistical analysis on multiple rules
 CPAR (Classification based on Predictive Association Rules: Yin & Han, SDM‘03)
 Generation of predictive rules (FOIL-like analysis)
 High efficiency, accuracy similar to CMAR
 RCBT (Mining top-k covering rule groups for gene expression data, Cong et al. SIGMOD‘05)
 Explore high-dimensional classification, using top-k rule groups
 Achieve high classification accuracy and high run-time efficiency

Associative Classification May Achieve High
Accuracy and Efficiency (Cong et al. SIGMOD05)

The k-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm
 All instances correspond to points in the n-D space
 The nearest neighbor are defined in terms of
Euclidean distance, dist(X1, X2)
 Target function could be discrete- or real- valued
 For discrete-valued, k-NN returns the most common
value among the k training examples nearest to xq
 Vonoroi diagram: the decision surface induced by 1-
NN for a typical set of training examples
.
_
+
_ xq
+
_ _
+
_
_
+
.
.
.
. .

Discussion on the k-NN Algorithm
 k-NN for real-valued prediction for a given unknown tuple
 Returns the mean values of the k nearest neighbors
 Distance-weighted nearest neighbor algorithm
 Weight the contribution of each of the k neighbors
according to their distance to the query xq
 Give greater weight to closer neighbors
 Robust to noisy data by averaging k-nearest neighbors
 Curse of dimensionality: distance between neighbors could
be dominated by irrelevant attributes
 To overcome it, axes stretch or elimination of the least
relevant attributes
2),(
1
i
xqxd
w

Genetic Algorithms (GA)
 Genetic Algorithm: based on an analogy to biological evolution
 An initial population is created consisting of randomly generated rules
 Each rule is represented by a string of bits
 E.g., if A1 and ¬A2 then C2 can be encoded as 100
 If an attribute has k > 2 values, k bits can be used
 Based on the notion of survival of the fittest, a new population is
formed to consist of the fittest rules and their offsprings
 The fitness of a rule is represented by its classification accuracy on a
set of training examples
 Offsprings are generated by crossover and mutation
 The process continues until a population P evolves when each rule in P
satisfies a prespecified threshold
 Slow but easily parallelizable

Rough Set Approach
 Rough sets are used to approximately or “roughly” define
equivalent classes
 A rough set for a given class C is approximated by two sets: a lower
approximation (certain to be in C) and an upper approximation
(cannot be described as not belonging to C)
 Finding the minimal subsets (reducts) of attributes for feature
reduction is NP-hard but a discernibility matrix (which stores the
differences between attribute values for each pair of data tuples) is
used to reduce the computation intensity

Fuzzy Set
Approaches
 Fuzzy logic uses truth values between 0.0 and 1.0 to
represent the degree of membership (such as using
fuzzy membership graph)
 Attribute values are converted to fuzzy values
 e.g., income is mapped into the discrete categories
{low, medium, high} with fuzzy values calculated
 For a given new sample, more than one fuzzy value may
apply
 Each applicable rule contributes a vote for membership
in the categories
 Typically, the truth values for each predicted category
are summed, and these sums are combined

prediction?
and prediction
induction
propagation
 Prediction
 Model selection
 Summary

What Is Prediction?
 (Numerical) prediction is similar to classification
 construct a model
 use model to predict continuous or ordered value for a given input
 Prediction is different from classification
 Classification refers to predict categorical class label
 Prediction models continuous-valued functions
 Major method for prediction: regression
 model the relationship between one or more independent or
predictor variables and a dependent or response variable
 Regression analysis
 Linear and multiple regression
 Non-linear regression
 Other regression methods: generalized linear model, Poisson
regression, log-linear models, regression trees

Linear Regression
 Linear regression: involves a response variable y and a single
predictor variable x
y = w0 + w1 x
where w0 (y-intercept) and w1 (slope) are regression coefficients
 Method of least squares: estimates the best-fitting straight line
 Multiple linear regression: involves more than one predictor variable
 Training data is of the form (X1, y1), (X2, y2),…, (X|D|, y|D|)
 Ex. For 2-D data, we may have: y = w0 + w1 x1+ w2 x2
 Solvable by extension of least square method or using SAS, S-Plus
 Many nonlinear functions can be transformed into the above
||
1
2
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1 D
i
i
D
i
ii
xx
yyxx
w xwyw
10

 Some nonlinear models can be modeled by a polynomial
function
 A polynomial regression model can be transformed into
linear regression model. For example,
y = w0 + w1 x + w2 x2 + w3 x3
convertible to linear with new variables: x2 = x2, x3= x3
y = w0 + w1 x + w2 x2 + w3 x3
 Other functions, such as power function, can also be
transformed to linear model
 Some models are intractable nonlinear (e.g., sum of
exponential terms)
 possible to obtain least square estimates through
extensive calculation on more complex formulae
Nonlinear Regression

prediction?
and prediction
induction
propagation
 Prediction
 Model selection
 Summary

Classifier Accuracy Measures
 Accuracy of a classifier M, acc(M): percentage of test set tuples that are
correctly classified by the model M
 Error rate (misclassification rate) of M = 1 – acc(M)
 Given m classes, CMi,j, an entry in a confusion matrix, indicates #
of tuples in class i that are labeled by the classifier as class j
 Alternative accuracy measures (e.g., for cancer diagnosis)
sensitivity = t-pos/pos /* true positive recognition rate */
specificity = t-neg/neg /* true negative recognition rate */
precision = t-pos/(t-pos + f-pos)
accuracy = sensitivity * pos/(pos + neg) + specificity * neg/(pos + neg)
 This model can also be used for cost-benefit analysis
classes buy_computer = yes buy_computer = no total recognition(%)
buy_computer = yes 6954 46 7000 99.34
buy_computer = no 412 2588 3000 86.27
total 7366 2634 10000 95.52
C1 C2
C1 True positive False negative
C2 False positive True negative

Predictor Error Measures
 Measure predictor accuracy: measure how far off the predicted value is
from the actual known value
 Loss function: measures the error betw. yi and the predicted value yi‘
 Absolute error: | yi – yi‘|
 Squared error: (yi – yi‘)2
 Test error (generalization error): the average loss over the test set
 Mean absolute error: Mean squared error:
 Relative absolute error: Relative squared error:
The mean squared-error exaggerates the presence of outliers
Popularly use (square) root mean-square error, similarly, root relative
squared error
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Evaluating the Accuracy of a Classifier
or Predictor (I)
 Holdout method
 Given data is randomly partitioned into two independent sets
 Training set (e.g., 2/3) for model construction
 Test set (e.g., 1/3) for accuracy estimation
 Random sampling: a variation of holdout
 Repeat holdout k times, accuracy = avg. of the accuracies
obtained
 Cross-validation (k-fold, where k = 10 is most popular)
 Randomly partition the data into k mutually exclusive subsets,
each approximately equal size
 At i-th iteration, use Di as test set and others as training set
 Leave-one-out: k folds where k = # of tuples, for small sized data
 Stratified cross-validation: folds are stratified so that class dist. in
each fold is approx. the same as that in the initial data

Evaluating the Accuracy of a Classifier
or Predictor (II)
 Bootstrap
 Works well with small data sets
 Samples the given training tuples uniformly with replacement
 i.e., each time a tuple is selected, it is equally likely to be
selected again and re-added to the training set
 Several boostrap methods, and a common one is .632 boostrap
 Suppose we are given a data set of d tuples. The data set is sampled d
times, with replacement, resulting in a training set of d samples. The data
tuples that did not make it into the training set end up forming the test set.
About 63.2% of the original data will end up in the bootstrap, and the
remaining 36.8% will form the test set (since (1 – 1/d)d ≈ e-1 = 0.368)
 Repeat the sampling procedue k times, overall accuracy of the
model:
))(368.0)(632.0()( _
1
_ settraini
k
i
settesti MaccMaccMacc

prediction?
and prediction
induction
propagation
 Prediction
 Model selection
 Summary

Ensemble Methods: Increasing the Accuracy
 Use a combination of models to increase accuracy
 Combine a series of k learned
models, M1, M2, …, Mk, with the aim of creating an
improved model M*
 Popular ensemble methods
 Bagging: averaging the prediction over a collection of
classifiers
 Boosting: weighted vote with a collection of classifiers
 Ensemble: combining a set of heterogeneous classifiers

Bagging: Boostrap Aggregation
 Analogy: Diagnosis based on multiple doctors‘ majority vote
 Training
 Given a set D of d tuples, at each iteration i, a training set Di of d
tuples is sampled with replacement from D (i.e., boostrap)
 A classifier model Mi is learned for each training set Di
 Classification: classify an unknown sample X
 Each classifier Mi returns its class prediction
 The bagged classifier M* counts the votes and assigns the class
with the most votes to X
 Prediction: can be applied to the prediction of continuous values by
taking the average value of each prediction for a given test tuple
 Accuracy
 Often significant better than a single classifier derived from D
 For noise data: not considerably worse, more robust
 Proved improved accuracy in prediction

Boosting
 Analogy: Consult several doctors, based on a combination of weighted
diagnoses—weight assigned based on the previous diagnosis accuracy
 How boosting works?
 Weights are assigned to each training tuple
 A series of k classifiers is iteratively learned
 After a classifier Mi is learned, the weights are updated to allow the
subsequent classifier, Mi+1, to pay more attention to the training
tuples that were misclassified by Mi
 The final M* combines the votes of each individual classifier, where
the weight of each classifier's vote is a function of its accuracy
 The boosting algorithm can be extended for the prediction of
continuous values
 Comparing with bagging: boosting tends to achieve greater accuracy,
but it also risks overfitting the model to misclassified data

Adaboost (Freund and Schapire, 1997)
 Given a set of d class-labeled tuples, (X1, y1), …, (Xd, yd)
 Initially, all the weights of tuples are set the same (1/d)
 Generate k classifiers in k rounds. At round i,
 Tuples from D are sampled (with replacement) to form a
training set Di of the same size
 Each tuple‘s chance of being selected is based on its weight
 A classification model Mi is derived from Di
 Its error rate is calculated using Di as a test set
 If a tuple is misclssified, its weight is increased, o.w. it is
decreased
 Error rate: err(Xj) is the misclassification error of tuple Xj. Classifier
Mi error rate is the sum of the weights of the misclassified tuples:
 The weight of classifier Mi‘s vote is
)(
)(1
log
i
i
Merror
Merror
d
j
ji errwMerror )()( jX

prediction?
and prediction
induction
propagation
 Prediction
 Model selection
 Summary

Model Selection: ROC Curves
 ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics)
curves: for visual comparison of
classification models
 Originated from signal detection theory
 Shows the trade-off between the true
positive rate and the false positive rate
 The area under the ROC curve is a
measure of the accuracy of the model
 Rank the test tuples in decreasing order:
the one that is most likely to belong to the
positive class appears at the top of the list
 The closer to the diagonal line (i.e., the
closer the area is to 0.5), the less accurate
is the model
 Vertical axis represents
the true positive rate
 Horizontal axis rep. the
false positive rate
 The plot also shows a
diagonal line
 A model with perfect
accuracy will have an
area of 1.0

prediction?
and prediction
induction
propagation
 Prediction
 Model selection
 Summary

Summary (I)
 Classification and prediction are two forms of data analysis that can
be used to extract models describing important data classes or to
predict future data trends.
 Effective and scalable methods have been developed for decision
trees induction, Naive Bayesian classification, Bayesian belief
network, rule-based classifier, Backpropagation, Support Vector
Machine (SVM), associative classification, nearest neighbor classifiers,
and case-based reasoning, and other classification methods such as
genetic algorithms, rough set and fuzzy set approaches.
 Linear, nonlinear, and generalized linear models of regression can be
used for prediction. Many nonlinear problems can be converted to
linear problems by performing transformations on the predictor
variables. Regression trees and model trees are also used for
prediction.

Summary (II)
 Stratified k-fold cross-validation is a recommended method for
accuracy estimation. Bagging and boosting can be used to increase
overall accuracy by learning and combining a series of individual
models.
 Significance tests and ROC curves are useful for model selection
 There have been numerous comparisons of the different classification
and prediction methods, and the matter remains a research topic
 No single method has been found to be superior over all others for all
data sets
 Issues such as accuracy, training time, robustness, interpretability, and
scalability must be considered and can involve trade-offs, further
complicating the quest for an overall superior method

References (1)
 C. Apte and S. Weiss. Data mining with decision trees and decision rules. Future
Generation Computer Systems, 13, 1997.
 C. M. Bishop, Neural Networks for Pattern Recognition. Oxford University Press,
1995.
 L. Breiman, J. Friedman, R. Olshen, and C. Stone. Classification and Regression
Trees. Wadsworth International Group, 1984.
 C. J. C. Burges. A Tutorial on Support Vector Machines for Pattern Recognition.
Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, 2(2): 121-168, 1998.
 P. K. Chan and S. J. Stolfo. Learning arbiter and combiner trees from partitioned
data for scaling machine learning. KDD'95.
 W. Cohen. Fast effective rule induction. ICML'95.
 G. Cong, K.-L. Tan, A. K. H. Tung, and X. Xu. Mining top-k covering rule groups for
gene expression data. SIGMOD'05.
 A. J. Dobson. An Introduction to Generalized Linear Models. Chapman and Hall,
1990.
 G. Dong and J. Li. Efficient mining of emerging patterns: Discovering trends and
differences. KDD'99.

References (2)
 R. O. Duda, P. E. Hart, and D. G. Stork. Pattern Classification, 2ed. John Wiley and
Sons, 2001
 U. M. Fayyad. Branching on attribute values in decision tree generation. AAAI‘94.
 Y. Freund and R. E. Schapire. A decision-theoretic generalization of on-line
learning and an application to boosting. J. Computer and System Sciences, 1997.
 J. Gehrke, R. Ramakrishnan, and V. Ganti. Rainforest: A framework for fast decision
tree construction of large datasets. VLDB‘98.
 J. Gehrke, V. Gant, R. Ramakrishnan, and W.-Y. Loh, BOAT -- Optimistic Decision Tree
Construction. SIGMOD'99.
 T. Hastie, R. Tibshirani, and J. Friedman. The Elements of Statistical Learning: Data
Mining, Inference, and Prediction. Springer-Verlag, 2001.
 D. Heckerman, D. Geiger, and D. M. Chickering. Learning Bayesian networks: The
combination of knowledge and statistical data. Machine Learning, 1995.
 M. Kamber, L. Winstone, W. Gong, S. Cheng, and J. Han. Generalization and decision
tree induction: Efficient classification in data mining. RIDE'97.
 B. Liu, W. Hsu, and Y. Ma. Integrating Classification and Association Rule. KDD'98.
 W. Li, J. Han, and J. Pei, CMAR: Accurate and Efficient Classification Based on
Multiple Class-Association Rules, ICDM'01.

References (3)
 T.-S. Lim, W.-Y. Loh, and Y.-S. Shih. A comparison of prediction
accuracy, complexity, and training time of thirty-three old and new
classification algorithms. Machine Learning, 2000.
 J. Magidson. The Chaid approach to segmentation modeling: Chi-squared
automatic interaction detection. In R. P. Bagozzi, editor, Advanced Methods of
Marketing Research, Blackwell Business, 1994.
 M. Mehta, R. Agrawal, and J. Rissanen. SLIQ : A fast scalable classifier for data
mining. EDBT'96.
 T. M. Mitchell. Machine Learning. McGraw Hill, 1997.
 S. K. Murthy, Automatic Construction of Decision Trees from Data: A Multi-
Disciplinary Survey, Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery 2(4): 345-389, 1998
 J. R. Quinlan. Induction of decision trees. Machine Learning, 1:81-106, 1986.
 J. R. Quinlan and R. M. Cameron-Jones. FOIL: A midterm report. ECML‘93.
 J. R. Quinlan. C4.5: Programs for Machine Learning. Morgan Kaufmann, 1993.
 J. R. Quinlan. Bagging, boosting, and c4.5. AAAI'96.

References (4)
 R. Rastogi and K. Shim. Public: A decision tree classifier that integrates building
and pruning. VLDB‘98.
 J. Shafer, R. Agrawal, and M. Mehta. SPRINT : A scalable parallel classifier for
data mining. VLDB‘96.
 J. W. Shavlik and T. G. Dietterich. Readings in Machine Learning. Morgan Kaufmann,
1990.
 P. Tan, M. Steinbach, and V. Kumar. Introduction to Data Mining. Addison Wesley,
2005.
 S. M. Weiss and C. A. Kulikowski. Computer Systems that Learn: Classification
and Prediction Methods from Statistics, Neural Nets, Machine Learning, and
Expert Systems. Morgan Kaufman, 1991.
 S. M. Weiss and N. Indurkhya. Predictive Data Mining. Morgan Kaufmann, 1997.
 I. H. Witten and E. Frank. Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and
Techniques, 2ed. Morgan Kaufmann, 2005.
 X. Yin and J. Han. CPAR: Classification based on predictive association rules.
SDM'03
 H. Yu, J. Yang, and J. Han. Classifying large data sets using SVM with
hierarchical clusters. KDD'03.

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