[Challenge:Future] The Disaster of Chaos Theory
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The document discusses chaos theory and the concept of small, isolated events triggering larger consequences through complex, interconnected systems. It proposes using education to foster awareness of global interdependence and empowering technocratic leaders of international organizations and key government positions to facilitate rapid, expertise-driven responses to political and social crises as they emerge. This global technocracy model aims to establish a collective security system not driven by individual political interests. The plan faces challenges but taking incremental steps could help modernize governance structures to better prepare for uncertain future disasters.
[Challenge:Future] The Disaster of Chaos Theory
- 1. “ The Disaster of Chaos Theory” Alexandru Dragoi, Romania Lucian Blaga University Solution INTERDEPENDENCE AWARENESS AND GLOBAL TECHNOCRACY Area Disaster preparedness
- 2. Chaos in our lives…?! The cow of O`Leary kicked a lamp in a barn on DeKoven Street in 1871 (this event looks like a normal accident). 6 th May 2010: the stock market was volatile and one buy/sell order was delayed for a few minutes. 2011, Tunisia: Bouazizi, a fruit merchant, lit himself aflame because he wanted to show to the entire world the corruption of the Tunisian system. The Great Fire from Chicago (1871) – 300 fatalities Dow Jones collapsed with 700 points in less than 10 minutes. The action of Bouazizi started the Arab Spring – one war in Lybia, 3500 fatalities in Syria What do they have in common? In the beginning a small, isolated event starts a chain reaction and the result is a big disaster or an important phenomenon on the international arena… This is Chaos Theory!
- 3. Our world today… IN THEORY Main features of chaos theory: 1.Complexity 2.Sensitive dependence on initial conditions also known as the butterfly effect. The butterfly effect: describes on how tiny variations (isolated, small events like the delayed stock order, or the action of the Tunisian merchant) can affect giant systems/complex systems. The mathematician, Edward Lorenz was the creator of chaos theory and he presented the butterfly effect using this question: “Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil set off a Tornado in Texas?” IN FACTS AND NUMBERS Globalization: Is about the interconnectivity between people, countries, production and technologies. Our world is a giant complex system: 7 billions of people Megacities Corporations Twitter/Facebook/Internet The interdependence and the complexity of the global system generated a general phenomenon The Asymmetry of the Three Musketeers (Economy, Culture and Politics) – there are too many gaps and differences between individuals and countries and because of that the possibility for political, economical, social, technological disasters is increasing.
- 4. A crystal globe and a glimpse of our future… The “Big Eight” List The future is about: Asymmetry (inequality between countries, asymmetric warfare); Integration (the elimination of boundaries; supra-national institutions and organizations - BRIC, UE, NAFTA, ONU, WTO, ASEAN…); Innovation (the co-evolution between the humankind and the machine); Complexity (a lot of factors, variables and connections) Interdependence (the butterfly effect, your actions in Europe can produce a disaster in Asia); Urbanization (Our cities will grow bigger and larger); Crowded Space (now we are 7 billions, imagine the population in 2100!); War on talent (the know-how will become a powerful tool).
- 5. The disasters of the future are like earthquakes! Education(individual level) Objective Create a consciousness of interdependence. How to do that? Formal Offer two types of education Informal Learning A. Through formal education we provide the theoretical background (the know-how) which is necessary to understand our world and all the major phenomena like globalization, cyber-warfare, terrorism. B. Through informal education ( volunteering ) we offer the possibility for students to understand how their actions can change the face of their neighbourhood, city or country (the consciousness of the butterfly effect ). Global Technocracy (social level) Objective Change the face of politics. How to do that? To have a normal life we must have our individual security guaranteed (individual security refers to protection in front of war, economic crisis, diseases, social instability). But our security depends on the security of the others (our community, our society) - Collective Security . In order to achieve a sustainable long-term system of collective security we must change our political system. Our leaders should be scholars, intellectuals, scientists . My plan has two steps:
- 6. Global technocracy – how to prepare for a disaster… The disasters of the future are like earthquakes: it is impossible to foreseen them but we must be prepared to react when they occur. Why technocrats? They are unelected experts so they do not care about their political capital. They look at the problems from the vantage point of their know-how and their experience. They can implement decisions which are very unpopular, but these decisions can save the situation (for example Mario Monti in Italy or Lucas Papademos in Greece – both are technocrats). Using education we create the interdependence awareness People will understand the butterfly effect and correlation between their security and the security of the community The technocrat leaders would provide a collective system for security which is not biased to political interests or individual interest.
- 7. How to produce global technocracy? Find the key positions from governments (for example the prime minister position, defence and security, financial system). After we discover the key positions we must put in those positions technocrats (like Italy and Greece did recently) Empower and change the structure of international organizations like United Nations – Security Council. For example, nowadays, the Security Council is dominated by the strategic interest of the superpowers (US, China, Russia) and because of that the security and the human rights of the people from Africa or Syria are not protected. This part is the most difficult one because at this moment only a few leaders are coping with the idea of empowering the international organizations. The idea of creating a consciousness of interdependence is derived from the concept of cultural awareness. The concept of cultural awareness was created in order to avoid cultural conflicts caused by ethnocentrism (judge other cultures using the variables (values, traditions) of your own culture). Whenever there is a crisis (political or economic especially) the key positions from a state are occupied by technocrats (the most recent examples are Italy and Greece).
- 8. Objectives, impacts and advantages… Education for interdependence awareness Objective Create a consciousness of interdependence . Impacts/Advantages Improve social responsibility; Create a social network of collective security; Encourage individuals to make recommendations regarding current social, political, environmental issues. Global technocracy for rapid political decision Objective Change the face of politics . Impacts/Advantages A network for rapid political decisions; The number of political fights and strategic interests is reduced; Good expertise in solving problems.
- 9. Is it a feasible plan? A. The first part of my plan which has an impact on the individual level is easy to implement because it is connected with the educational system. B. The second part of my plan is related to the political and social framework and because of that the change should be made in baby steps in order to avoid political crisis. We have an adversity when it comes to change our political network and usually only big disasters pushed our leaders to change the face of politics. After The First World War they created the League of Nations, after The Second World War they created the United Nations… Building a global technocracy is a difficult project but is not impossible. Always when we face a crisis we empower technocrats because they know how to deal with them…so we should empower the technocrats NOW IN ORDER TO BE PREPARED FOR THE FUTURE!!!
- 10. References for pictures Slide 2 (in order of appearance): http://www.mattmilesfirephotography.com/news/fullstory/newsid/146882 http://www.dukealvinlim.com/2010/05/ http://www.thestar.com/news/world/article/922279--suicide-protest-helped-topple-tunisian-regime Slide 3: http://www.i-voix.net/60-categorie-10579705.html Slide 4: http://www.cdg29.fr/NEWSLETTER_20.nl http://intsclub.mst.edu/ http://sustentabilidade.allianz.com.br/demografia/urbanizacao/ Slide 9: http://aspanational.wordpress.com/2011/10/12/us-education-system-crying-out-for-help/ http://fizadawn.com/life/education-is-not-the-filling-a-bucket-but-the-lighting-of-a-fire