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Challenges in healthcare:
solutions from improvement
science?
Dr Jennifer Dixon
Chief Executive
The Health Foundation
2
Challenges seeking solutions
Funding (NHS in England)
3
Funding (NHS in England)
4
Period Years Average annual real
growth in NHS spending:
Entire NHS history 1949−50 to 2010−11 +4.0%
Last Labour
government
1996−97 to 2009−10 +6.4%
Last Conservative
government
1978−79 to 1996−97 +3.3%
Previous governments 1949−50 to 1978−79 +3.5%
Tightest 4 year period 1950–51 to 1954–55 –2.4%
Tightest 4 year period
in last 50 years
1975−76 to 1979−80 +1.3%
Reform (NHS in England)
Health and Social Care Act 2012
‘So large you can see it on Google Earth’....(CEO NHS (England))
Demand
6
– Rising burden of ill health (demography < long term
conditions, dying)
– Consumer expectations (eg shared decision-making,
access to specific treatments)
– Population expectations (eg fairness in access, at
least minimum standards)
Value
7
– More than minimum standards
– Internationally comparable outcomes
– Preventive care, person centred
– Population health, building community assets
Value
8
Supply side ‘rigidities’
9
– Growth of hospital care (technology/expectations,
degree of specialism, political power of
hospitals/professionals)
– Poor integration with primary care, community
services, and social care
– Lower interest in complex and behavioural over simple
and scientific
– Professional autonomy/low scrutiny
– Workforce contracts
– Payment mechanisms
– Public health...
10
– Challenges seeking solutions
– Responses
11
P
Policy ecosystem
Provider/care system
P
P
P
P
P
Communities
.. and individuals...
Improvement efforts
Policy ecosystem
12
• Incremental change (but ‘punctuated equilibrium’ (Tuohy))
• Historical focus on demand side solutions > tackle provider interests
• Devolution to regions or other subnational units and frustration with national
control
• Payment reform
• Control of input prices (pharma)
• Market mechanisms: competition and choice
• Regulation
• Central directives/command
• Information policy
• Managed care (LTC): risk based accountable care organisations
• NICE-like replicas
• Defined benefit package
• Co-payments/insurance
• Social care
Communities
13
Local government
Community groups
Voluntary sector
Local business
Provider care system
14
Collaborations and networks
- hospital
- primary care
Competition (some)
GP
practices
Community
services
Social care
Other
providers
Hospital
Collaborations and networks
Payers
Capitation-based £
Risk adjusted
Risk and outcome
based
15
Lead provider contracting,
alliance contracting
Provider care system
16
Collaborations and networks are developing
Quality improvement capacity limited
Quality improvement interventions
- Differing (and developing) interventions
- Differing improvement tools
- Differing implementation intensity
- Differing context
- Differing evaluation methods
- Evidence base...(ROI)
Spread and scalability is a challenge
17
What does the research tell
us?
18
Reduction in effectiveness from applying the
same fixed-intervention in different contexts
Innovation
sample
Evaluation
sample
Immediate wide-scale
implementation
Parry GJ, Carson-Stevens A, Luff DF, McPherson ME, Goldmann DA. Recommendations for Evaluation of Health
Care Improvement Initiatives. Academic Pediatrics. 2013.
Effectiveness may be maintained if we can learn in
what contexts the intervention can be amended to work
Learn which contexts it can be amended to work in as we move
from Innovation to Prototype to Test and Spread
Innovation
sample
Parry GJ, Carson-Stevens A, Luff DF, McPherson ME, Goldmann DA. Recommendations for Evaluation of Health
Care Improvement Initiatives. Academic Pediatrics. 2013
21
– Challenges seeking solutions
– Responses
– Evidence and evaluation
Hierarchy of evidence
22Source: Davies A and Newman S (2011). Evaluating telecare and telehealth interventions.
WSDAN briefing paper. Available from: http://www.wsdactionnetwork.org.uk
Evaluation of service change
23
Arrived
Adapting
Early
InterventionMethods
Case study
Formative
Summative
Evaluation of service change
24
Method
Case study
(Early)
Formative study
(Adapting)
Summative study
Example intervention
Clinical team piloting a change to service
delivery: a one stop clinic in urology
outpatients
Six organisations developing and
implementing a model for self management
support in chronic care
Comparative study of 20 obstetric
departments that implement a programme for
team-based patient safety training compared
with 20 departments not doing the training
Complex interventions
Evaluability tests
Early Adapting Arrived
Evaluability assessment
26
Also known as ‘exploratory evaluation’
Needs to be used more:
provides rapid feedback about how the intervention is working
helps to develop realistic objectives for the project/programme
examines the feasibility of implementation and adaptability
informs the design of a full evaluation to gain useful information
Our best shot?
Improvement
support
Implementation
Formative
evaluation
Real time
Allowing course correction
Techniques eg
PDSA
Logic models
Statistical process
control
With internal evaluation
28
– Challenges seeking solutions
– Responses
– Evidence and evaluation
– Future research directions
Future research directions
29
• Informatics to support improved quality of care
• Health economics at system level to clinical team level
• Big data to direct the focus for new systems of care
• Evolution of evaluation techniques
Personlevelhospitalcost profileoverayear(NHS)
(50+yearoldmale,totalannualcost>£35,000)
Outpatients DayCase Elective
AE Nonelective
Time
(weeks)
Big data and linkage (NHS)
Census Member file
NHS use
Inpatient Cost
Outpatient Cost
A&E Cost
GP
Community
Social care
use
Nursing
home
Cost
Domicilary
care
Cost
Area level Person level
Big data and linkage (NHS and social care)
Big data and risk stratification
34
P
Policy ecosystem
P
P
P
P
P
.. and individuals...
Improvement science
Improvement science
research can show which
are the most promising
solutions
Research could also
demonstrate if they are
cost effective
Improvement science is
about understanding how
solutions work, in what
context and how to adapt
for new settings
Provider
The role of evidence
35
Opinion / ideology
Reasoned argument
and experience
/ public
Evidence
Health policy
36
www.health.org.uk
Sign-up for our newsletter
www.health.org.uk/account/newsletter-registration/
Follow us on Twitter @HealthFDN
(http://twitter.com/HealthFDN)

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Challenges in healthcare: solutions from improvement science?

  • 1. Challenges in healthcare: solutions from improvement science? Dr Jennifer Dixon Chief Executive The Health Foundation
  • 3. Funding (NHS in England) 3
  • 4. Funding (NHS in England) 4 Period Years Average annual real growth in NHS spending: Entire NHS history 1949−50 to 2010−11 +4.0% Last Labour government 1996−97 to 2009−10 +6.4% Last Conservative government 1978−79 to 1996−97 +3.3% Previous governments 1949−50 to 1978−79 +3.5% Tightest 4 year period 1950–51 to 1954–55 –2.4% Tightest 4 year period in last 50 years 1975−76 to 1979−80 +1.3%
  • 5. Reform (NHS in England) Health and Social Care Act 2012 ‘So large you can see it on Google Earth’....(CEO NHS (England))
  • 6. Demand 6 – Rising burden of ill health (demography < long term conditions, dying) – Consumer expectations (eg shared decision-making, access to specific treatments) – Population expectations (eg fairness in access, at least minimum standards)
  • 7. Value 7 – More than minimum standards – Internationally comparable outcomes – Preventive care, person centred – Population health, building community assets
  • 9. Supply side ‘rigidities’ 9 – Growth of hospital care (technology/expectations, degree of specialism, political power of hospitals/professionals) – Poor integration with primary care, community services, and social care – Lower interest in complex and behavioural over simple and scientific – Professional autonomy/low scrutiny – Workforce contracts – Payment mechanisms – Public health...
  • 10. 10 – Challenges seeking solutions – Responses
  • 12. Policy ecosystem 12 • Incremental change (but ‘punctuated equilibrium’ (Tuohy)) • Historical focus on demand side solutions > tackle provider interests • Devolution to regions or other subnational units and frustration with national control • Payment reform • Control of input prices (pharma) • Market mechanisms: competition and choice • Regulation • Central directives/command • Information policy • Managed care (LTC): risk based accountable care organisations • NICE-like replicas • Defined benefit package • Co-payments/insurance • Social care
  • 14. Provider care system 14 Collaborations and networks - hospital - primary care Competition (some)
  • 15. GP practices Community services Social care Other providers Hospital Collaborations and networks Payers Capitation-based £ Risk adjusted Risk and outcome based 15 Lead provider contracting, alliance contracting
  • 16. Provider care system 16 Collaborations and networks are developing Quality improvement capacity limited Quality improvement interventions - Differing (and developing) interventions - Differing improvement tools - Differing implementation intensity - Differing context - Differing evaluation methods - Evidence base...(ROI) Spread and scalability is a challenge
  • 17. 17 What does the research tell us?
  • 18. 18
  • 19. Reduction in effectiveness from applying the same fixed-intervention in different contexts Innovation sample Evaluation sample Immediate wide-scale implementation Parry GJ, Carson-Stevens A, Luff DF, McPherson ME, Goldmann DA. Recommendations for Evaluation of Health Care Improvement Initiatives. Academic Pediatrics. 2013.
  • 20. Effectiveness may be maintained if we can learn in what contexts the intervention can be amended to work Learn which contexts it can be amended to work in as we move from Innovation to Prototype to Test and Spread Innovation sample Parry GJ, Carson-Stevens A, Luff DF, McPherson ME, Goldmann DA. Recommendations for Evaluation of Health Care Improvement Initiatives. Academic Pediatrics. 2013
  • 21. 21 – Challenges seeking solutions – Responses – Evidence and evaluation
  • 22. Hierarchy of evidence 22Source: Davies A and Newman S (2011). Evaluating telecare and telehealth interventions. WSDAN briefing paper. Available from: http://www.wsdactionnetwork.org.uk
  • 23. Evaluation of service change 23 Arrived Adapting Early InterventionMethods Case study Formative Summative
  • 24. Evaluation of service change 24 Method Case study (Early) Formative study (Adapting) Summative study Example intervention Clinical team piloting a change to service delivery: a one stop clinic in urology outpatients Six organisations developing and implementing a model for self management support in chronic care Comparative study of 20 obstetric departments that implement a programme for team-based patient safety training compared with 20 departments not doing the training
  • 26. Evaluability assessment 26 Also known as ‘exploratory evaluation’ Needs to be used more: provides rapid feedback about how the intervention is working helps to develop realistic objectives for the project/programme examines the feasibility of implementation and adaptability informs the design of a full evaluation to gain useful information
  • 27. Our best shot? Improvement support Implementation Formative evaluation Real time Allowing course correction Techniques eg PDSA Logic models Statistical process control With internal evaluation
  • 28. 28 – Challenges seeking solutions – Responses – Evidence and evaluation – Future research directions
  • 29. Future research directions 29 • Informatics to support improved quality of care • Health economics at system level to clinical team level • Big data to direct the focus for new systems of care • Evolution of evaluation techniques
  • 31. Big data and linkage (NHS) Census Member file NHS use Inpatient Cost Outpatient Cost A&E Cost GP Community Social care use Nursing home Cost Domicilary care Cost Area level Person level
  • 32. Big data and linkage (NHS and social care)
  • 33. Big data and risk stratification
  • 34. 34 P Policy ecosystem P P P P P .. and individuals... Improvement science Improvement science research can show which are the most promising solutions Research could also demonstrate if they are cost effective Improvement science is about understanding how solutions work, in what context and how to adapt for new settings Provider
  • 35. The role of evidence 35 Opinion / ideology Reasoned argument and experience / public Evidence
  • 36. Health policy 36 www.health.org.uk Sign-up for our newsletter www.health.org.uk/account/newsletter-registration/ Follow us on Twitter @HealthFDN (http://twitter.com/HealthFDN)

Editor's Notes

  • #30: Research into quality improvement needs to broaden out from its established concerns of patient safety, person centred care, professional motivation and studies of industrial improvement methods to consider: how IT and informatics can improve care – not just through telemedicine but bringing everyday IT into play and understanding the human element to get the best out of systems like electronic patient records and electronic prescribing We need to build the evidence for how improving quality adds value by reducing waste and improving efficiency The role that big data could play to help re-design systems to address current and future needs and how to harness the power of the data to design really person-centred, individualised care And we need to really focus on the development of evaluation so that we are using the appropriate methodologies at the right stage of development of an intervention to better understand how the improvement intervention works, when they are ‘promising’ even if not yet delivering and how to adapt to achieve better results.