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Big Data and Weather
Forecasting
Weather prediction has been a big data
problem for a long time
Petabytes per day
Big data and weather: the observations
Weather Satellites: Meteorological Data
Everywhere
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
NOAA Polar
Orbiter Weather
Satellite
NOAA Polar Orbiter
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
Cosmic GPS satellites provide more
soundings
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
Cloud Track Winds
Aircraft
Weather Radar
Surface Observations
Northwest Surface Observations
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
Some of the smartphones/pads with
pressure sensors
114K Pressures in One Hour Over US
From Three Apps
Big Problem
Quality Control of Big Weather Data
The other meteorological big data:
forecast models
The First Numerical Weather
Prediction
Numerical Weather Prediction
Observation Collection Needed to Create
the Initialization
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
These equations together are a time
machine!
Numerical Weather Prediction
National Weather
Service Weather
Prediction Computer
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
4-km UW
MM5 System
1.33 km resolution available on the UW
web site
Before the models are run there is
another step: data assimilation
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
Surface analysis of sea level pressure, surface wind,
low-atmosphere temperature
But there is another issue for big data
users…meteorological and otherwise.
Uncertainty
Big Data and Uncertainty
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
The Technology of Uncertainty
Ensemble Prediction
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
Ensemble Prediction
• Can use ensembles to give the
probabilities that some weather feature will
occur. Not just precipitation.
• Ensemble mean is more accurate than any
individual member.
•When forecasts are similar, forecast skill
of the ensemble mean is generally higher.
Statistical post-processing
The UW has done this: PROBCAST
Decision Making and Uncertainty
Take Home Message
Big Data and Visualization
The role of visualization
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
And there are some recent non-Xbox
examples
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
Imagine if we developed the
infrastructure for weather animations,
SHOWING people what the weather
would LOOK like and SOUND like.
Connect Weather Simulation and
Videogame Technologies
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
Forecast
Animation
For the
Next Hr
Take Home Message
Big weather data can also help in the
short-term forecasting
During the past decade the volume
of information on what is occurring
now in local areas has increased
dramatically
And we have the perfect delivery
tool: Smartphones
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
Cliff Mass: Big Data and Weather Prediction - Seattle Interactive 2015
Take Home Message
The End

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