Climate Change and Development - Updates from COP18

Editor's Notes

• #3: The world only has 100-150 months to dramatically change the world’s energy supply trajectory and limit temperature rise to a "safe" 2 °C. Action – investment decisions that put the world on a different – more efficient resource use production and consumption path - is needed now.Significant investments are needed Stern review – cheaper to take action now. Investment decisions now will affect 2050 targets, action now is cheaper than inaction or late action;The transition to a low carbon world will transform our whole economy, the way we all live and work; Low-carbon growth is a new national development paradigm that creates new growth engines and increase of green jobs, green technology and clean energy Additionally: Population growth to 9 bln 2050 and;pressure on resource systems - McKinsey “Resource Revolution: Meeting the world’s energy, materials, food, and water needs greater pressure on resource systems together with increased environmental risks present a new set of leadership challenges for both private and public institutions; economic crisis
• #7: Considerable part of resource/material/energy efficiency (MRE) gains in developed countries has been achieved not by “real physical savings” resulting from changes in production and consumption patterns/modes, but by “outsourcing” very MRE-intensive production to developing countries (almost 1/4 of GHG emissions related to goods consumed in developed countries has been outsourced). According to the UK DEFRA, between 1990 and 2008, GHG emissions from UK production decreased by 14%; whereas GHG emissions from UK consumption increased by almost 20%. A team of scientists at Oxford even estimate that under a correct account, allowing for imports and exports, Britain’s carbon footprint is nearly twice as high as the official figure (i.e. 21 t CO2eq/person/year instead of 11) (cited in MacKay, 2009: 93). The share of CO2 net imports to total carbon emissions of individual developed countries has recently ranged from about 15% for Greece to almost 60% for Switzerland (Aichele and Felbermayr, 2011: 13). Germany, one of the most resource efficient and engineering-wise sophisticated economies, increased its domestic MRE efficiency by almost 14 per cent in the period 2000–2007. However, when calculated as total material requirement, including indirect material flows through the “ecological rucksack of international trade”, material efficiency only improved by 4 per cent and the physical volume of total material/resource consumption actually grew by 134 million tons (Simon and Dosch, 2010; and Center for Resource Efficiency and Climate Protection, 2010).
• #8: Countries from the region that have taken voluntary commitments under the Copenhagen Accord are: Armenia (Implementation of “The national programme on energy saving and renewable energy of the Republic of Armenia”; Transport sector: expansion of electric transport and increase of natural gas share in motor fuel; Decrease of methane emissions from solid municipal waste; Restoration of forest); Georgia (Amongst others: To achieve a measurable, reportable and verifiable deviation from the baseline (below business as usual levels) supported and enabled by technology and capacity-building; To develop a low carbon growth plan and low carbon strategy, in particular through the use of renewable energy investments and global cooperation.); Moldova (A reduction of no less than 25% of the base year 1990 level total national GHG emissions by 2020…); Tajikistan (improvement of energy efficiency technologies in building and construction; development of low-carbon growth through the introduction of a renewable energy strategy); FYR of Macedonia (Amongst others: GHG reductions in electric power sector; GHG emission reductions in industrial energy transformation and heating sector; Improvement of efficiency and energy savings; GHG emissions in transport; GHG emissions in waste sector).
• #11: Regional project : “Supporting RBEC transition to Low-emission development”;Country driven and country specific;Tools on how to develop a LEDS/NAMA in place;Started in Kazakhstan, Moldova, Turkey; Uzbekistan, BiH and Croatia, and all the rest of the region upon request ;Awareness and knowledge low, need for more trainings;Donors cooperation still a problem
• #12: Brazil has established a stock exchange for voluntary carbon units which may precede a domestic trading scheme.China has made concrete steps towards the creation of regional ETS in various cities and provinces India has not shown much propensity for a domestic ETS due both to political and institutional reasons. However, trading schemes for energy efficiency and renewable energy are already in place Kazakhstan has very definite plans for an ETS, and has in fact a draft law in parliamentEnsuring a smooth labour market transitionGreener growth will see new jobs created, including skilled jobs in emerging green innovative activities. But some jobs will be at risk so there is a need to facilitate the re-allocation of workers from contracting to expanding sectors, such as those that replace polluting activities with cleaner alternatives or provide environmental services.Labour market policies should focus on preserving employment, not jobs. They need to ensure that workers and firms are able to adjust quickly to changes brought about by the greening of the economy, including by seizing new opportunities. By helping workers to move from jobs in contracting sectors to jobs in expanding sectors, they can also help to assure a just sharing of adjustment costs occasioned by the transition.2 New skills will be needed and this will require appropriate education policies. While many existing skills will remain appropriate, skill mismatches and gaps may emerge. Training and re-training programmes will be a key component of labour market policies. The scale of adjustment should not be overstated. For example, significant reductions of greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved with only limited effects on the pace of employment growth. Indeed labour market performance can improve if revenues from carbon pricing are used to promote labour demand. Furthermore, this does not take into account the positive impact on employment as a result of strategies fostering sources of green growth.Approximately $7 trillion of global annual cash flows by 2020 will be tied to a carbon-intensive economy. Sound policy can guide these investments toward a green economy, without slowing income growth. Performance standards for appliances, equipment, buildings, cars, and trucks, have both environmental and economic benefits. Sound economic signals can reduce waste, correct market failures, promote efficiency and spur innovation. Investments need to be reoriented to reduce emissions; with well designed policies
• #13: Follows the main principles for development of a strategy, following an established methodology or going its own wayThe goal in accordance with the GHG reduction commitment/goals and national prioritiesDevelopment of GHG emissions scenariosAssessment of the sectors of the economy and their reduction potential (incl. toward changed climate)Possible measures in different sector and cross sectoralEstimation of the financing needs, and economic impacts of shifting to low-emission development paths• Mechanisms for achieving it: investment, incentives, financial and economic policy initiatives (international support)• Consult and raise awareness for informed national consensus for policy actions and new investmentsEstablish collaboration mechanism with all stakeholdersDevelop relevant institutional arrangementsestablish a legal and regulatory framework Accumulate experience from other countries as well as national demonstrations and pilotsAssure adequate monitoring systemPush forward low emission economic development in an systematic manner, so that a sustainable and low carbon future can be shaped
• #14: S. Korea: changing peoples behavior and way of thinking; creating a new civilization;Russia: Vladimir Putin went to a meeting of the Security council on new Russian hybrid car, which will be produced this year
• #17: Interest to explore pathways for LED growing rapidly;>90 countries registered their NAMAQs with UNFCCC (51 developing of witch 25% low-income countries)
• #18: Climate and Energy Package: "20-20-20" targets. These are: A reduction in EU greenhouse gas emissions of at least 20% below 1990 levels; 20% of EU energy consumption to come from renewable resources; A 20% reduction in primary energy use compared with projected levels, to be achieved by improving energy efficiency. More ambitious than KP: e.g. inclusion of international aviation, LULUCF, higher CDM quality standards, supplementarity defined, recognition of early action (Kyoto bonus), no carry over of AAUs, single base year 1990, annual compliance cycle, higher penalties for non-compliance in emissions trading sectors, take account of direct and indirect effects of biofuels on land use change.Analysis of options to move beyond 20% greenhouse gas emission reductions and assessing the risk of carbon leakage 2010Since the EU policy was agreed, circumstances have been changing rapidly. We have seen an economic crisis of unprecedented scale. It has put huge pressure onto businesses and communities across Europe, as well as causing huge stress on public finances. But at the same time, it has confirmed that there are huge opportunities for Europe in building a resource-efficient society.There is now a widespread consensus that the development of resource-efficient and green technologies will be a major driver of growth. As countries worldwide sought to boost their economies in the crisis through stimulus packages, there was a clear pattern of investment being directed towards infrastructure for less polluting transport modes, such as public transport, intelligent traffic management systems (ITS), low-carbon energy production, smart electricity grids and clean transport- and energy-related R&D. Signs of the transition towards a low carbon economy are emerging across the world, with countries attracted to the greener option also because of its potential to create large numbers of new jobs.The total cost of a 30% reduction, including the costs to go to 20%, is now estimated at €81 billion, or 0.54% of GDP Options for addressing carbon leakage: The main issue for carbon leakage is the competitive difference between the EU and third countries. There are, therefore, broadly three ways in which carbon leakage could, if it can be demonstrated, be tackled: by giving further support to energy-intensive industries through continued free allowances; by adding to the costs of imports to compensate for the advantage of avoiding low-carbon policies; or by taking measures to bring the rest of the world closer to EU levels of effort.
• #19: AR4 has recommended that Annex I Parties should reduce their emissions at least by of 25-40% in the short term by 2020.
• #21: 80 per cent of global coal demand till 2030 is projected to come from China and India alone (IEA, 2007: 43). The Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology is at early experimental stage and thus still largely unproven, absorbs at least 20 per cent of energy generated by the concerned power plants, reduces the efficiency rate of the whole plant by at least a quarter and might never be available at sufficient scale in the not too distant future.20 Yet, as further elaborated on below, given current and future trends in the strong domination of coal-fired power plants in energy-related carbon emissions, notably in China and India, global research and technology efforts need to focus on neutralizing these emissions.
• #22: There are 200,000 new people born to this planet every day. Current population is 7 billion; Changing demographics have consequences for natural resources.