Climate Change, from AR5 to AR6
- 1. Almaty, Kazakhstan 21-22 August 2019 bit.ly/ipcc_outreach_centralasia Climate Change, from AR5 to AR6 Joy Jacqueline Pereira Vice Chair, IPCC Working Group II
- 2. A CHANGING WORLD WIDESPREAD OBSERVED IMPACTS
- 3. INCREASING MAGNITUDES OF WARMING INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE AND PERVASIVE IMPACTS
- 4. A CHANGING WORLD WIDESPREAD OBSERVED IMPACTS WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS INCREASE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
- 5. CLIMATE CHANGE REDUCING AND MANAGING RISKS
- 6. Key Risks in Asia Increased risk of heat-related mortality (high confidence) Increased risk of drought-related water and food shortage causing malnutrition (high confidence) Exacerbated poverty, inequalities and new vulnerabilities (high confidence) Increased risk of crop failure and lower crop production could lead to food insecurity in Asia (medium confidence) Water shortage in arid areas of Asia (medium confidence)
- 7. Impacts of global warming 1.5°C • Less extreme weather where people live, including extreme heat and rainfall • By 2100, global mean sea level rise will be around 10 cm lower but may continue to rise for centuries • 10 million fewer people exposed to risk of rising seas (At 1.5°C compared to 2°C) Jason Florio / Aurora Photos • Lower impact on biodiversity and species • Smaller reductions in yields of maize, rice, wheat • Global population exposed to increased water shortages is up to 50% less • Lower risk to fisheries and the livelihoods that depend on them • Up to several hundred million fewer people exposed to climate-related risk and susceptible to poverty by 2050
- 8. • Disaster Risk Management • Basic Public Health • Livelihood Diversification • Coastal & Water Management • Environmental Protection & Land Planning • Disaster Risk Management • Development Planning • Early Warning Systems • Mangrove Reforestation • Water Resources Management • Planning for Sea-Level Rise • Planning for Reduced Wate Availability • Municipal-Level Actions • Adapting Energy & Public Infrastructure • Ecosystem-Based Adaptation • Water Resources Management • Resilient Crop Varieties • Combining Traditional and Scientific Knowledge • Adapting Communications Infrastructure • International Cooperation • Marine Spatial Planning Adaptation is already occurring
- 9. IPCC AR5 - Chapter 24, Asia: Coverage - 51 countries/regions Source: IPCC, 2013 Contribution invited from Central Asia
- 10. • Current national commitments are not enough to keep to either 1.5oC or 2oC • Would require deep changes in all aspects of society (e.g. energy, land, buildings, transport, food & diets, cities) • New technologies, efficiency, cleaner energy sources, less deforestation, new land uses, sustainable agriculture • Good news is there is movement in the right direction in lots of these areas but would need to do more, faster • But this would require greater collective ambition Thank you very much!
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