From IPCC WGII AR5 to AR6
- 1. http://bit.ly/ipcc_outreach_myanmar From IPCC WGII AR5 to AR6 Joy Jacqueline Pereira, Vice-Chair WGII Outreach Event on IPCC Activities and Findings Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, 30-31 May 2019
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- 3. 3 Chapter 24, Asia: Coverage - 51 countries/regions Source: IPCC, 2013
- 4. Increased coastal, riverine and urban flooding leading to widespread damage to infrastructure and settlements in Asia (medium confidence) Increased risk of heat-related mortality (high confidence) Increased risk of drought-related water and food shortage causing malnutrition (high confidence) Key Risks in Asia
- 5. Exacerbated poverty, inequalities and new vulnerabilities (high confidence) Increased risk of flood-related deaths, injuries, infectious diseases and mental disorders (medium confidence) Increased risk of water and vector- borne diseases (medium confidence) Key Risks in Asia
- 6. Increased risk of crop failure and lower crop production could lead to food insecurity in Asia (medium confidence) Key Risks in Asia Water shortage in arid areas of Asia (medium confidence) KEY CONCLUSIONS: IPCC-WG2 Chapter 24, Asia Water scarcity is expected to be a major challenge for most of the region due to increased water demand and lack of good management (medium confidence) There is low confidence in future precipitation projections at a sub-regional scale and thus in future freshwater availability in most parts of Asia. Integrated water management strategies could help adapt to climate change, including developing water saving technologies, increasing water productivity, and water reuse.
- 7. Mountain-top extinctions in Asia (high confidence) Coral reef decline in Asia (high confidence) Key Risks in Asia
- 8. • Disaster Risk Management • Basic Public Health • Livelihood Diversification • Coastal & Water Management • Environmental Protection & Land Planning • Disaster Risk Management • Development Planning • Early Warning Systems • Mangrove Reforestation • Water Resources Management • Planning for Sea-Level Rise • Planning for Reduced Wate Availability • Municipal-Level Actions • Adapting Energy & Public Infrastructure • Ecosystem-Based Adaptation • Water Resources Management • Resilient Crop Varieties • Combining Traditional and Scientific Knowledge • Adapting Communications Infrastructure • International Cooperation • Marine Spatial Planning Adaptation is already occurring
- 9. 9 • Each year matters • Each half a degree matters • Each choice matters Confidence level for transition: L=Low, M=Medium, H=High and VH=Very high Reasons for Concern: 2018 sectoralGlobal Warming of 1.5°C
- 10. Coral Reefs Localised mass coral bleaching reported First global mass bleaching and mortality event First back-to-back global mass bleaching and mortality events + 0.2oC (circa 1980) No reports of mass coral bleaching Glynn 1983, Hoegh-Guldberg 1999, Hughes et al 2017a,b Global Warming of 1.5°C
- 11. Terrestrial ecosystems Biome shifts and species range losses escalate to very high levels – adaptation options very limited Extensive shifts of biomes with doubling or tripling of the plants, animals or insects losing over half of their climatically determined geographic ranges No detection and attribution of impacts of global warming on terrestrial ecosystems Some climate change impacts evident Global Warming of 1.5°C
- 12. Heat stress frequency: global Mora et al. 2017 Heat stress frequency: global Increased risk of extreme sea level events 10,000x means that a current once-a-century flooding level is reached nearly every few days at normal high tide Goodwin et al. 2017
- 13. 13 • Current national commitments are not enough to keep to either 1.5oC or 2oC • Would require deep changes in all aspects of society (e.g. energy, land, buildings, transport, food & diets, cities) • New technologies, efficiency, cleaner energy sources, less deforestation, new land uses, sustainable agriculture • Good news is there is movement in the right direction in lots of these areas but would need to do more, faster • But this would require greater collective ambition
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