Climate Change Prediction By Mathematical Models , Possibilities & Challenges.
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This document is an assignment for Aniket Raj from the Electrical Engineering department regarding a topic on mathematical models of climate change. It discusses what mathematical climate models are, including global circulation models. It describes different types of global climate models like Earth balance models, Earth models of intermediate complexity, and general climate models. It also discusses the advantages and disadvantages of climate models and results from current climate models.
Climate Change Prediction By Mathematical Models , Possibilities & Challenges.
- 1. EVS - ASSIGNMENT N A M E - A N I K E T R A J D E P T - E L E C T R I C A L E N G . R O L L N O - E E B 1 7 0 3 1 S E C - C Topic-climate Change Prediction By Mathematical Models , Possibilities & Challenges.
- 2. What is a MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF CLIMATE ? •A mathematical model of climate is model that includes principles of physics, chemistry and biology. e.g. Global Circulation Model (GCM). •Mathematical modal also known as computer models. •Such a models are used in prediction of temperature , humidity, rainfall, speed and direction of wind , and other variables all around the globe over time.
- 3. •GDP Growth , •Energy Use. •Policy Costs Agriculture •Health Impacts… •Global Mean •Precipitation •Sea Level Rise, Sea Level Cover • Green House Gas, •Concentrations, Air Pollutions Levels.. •Soil And Vegetable Carbon , Net Primary Productivity. • Trace Gas Emission From Ecosystems. Examples of mathematical model outputs.
- 4. Schematic representation of the development and use of a climate model.
- 5. GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS •When computer models are used to predict the climate they are called GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS. Types of Global Climate Models 1. Earth Balance Models (EBMs). 2. Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs). 3. General Climate Models (GCMs).
- 6. 1.Earth Balance Models •EBMs represent the oldest and simplest type of climate model. •They consider a balance of energy entering and leaving a system (i.e. the Earth). •Balance energy equations are then used to calculate the surface temperature using known variables such as zonal surface temperature and every latitude zone. •These models are one-dimensional in the direction of only the latitude of the Earth
- 8. 2.Earth Models of Intermediate Complexity •EMICs are of medium complexity compared to the other two models. •They are three-dimensional in that they represent physical processes in three dimensions, including the atmosphere, oceans, land, and the sea ice and glaciers on land. 3.General Climate Models •GCMs are three dimensional models and take into account many important processes of the earths system and at a better resolution than the others type.
- 9. Advantages and Disadvantages of Climate Models •ADVANTAGES An advantage of climate models is their ability to perform multiple simulation experiments using different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. By performing multiple experiments, with multiple climate models based on multiple greenhouse gas scenarios the range of possible climate outcomes, as well as the probability of specific outcomes, can be better understood.
- 10. A disadvantage of climate models is that, although computer power continues to increase rapidly, global models currently do not resolve features smaller than about 50 miles x 50 miles. This makes it impossible to resolve smaller-scale climate features. The models also simplify or parameterize complex and often non-linear processes, such as the radiation effects of high- and low-level clouds or hydrological processes on the land. •DISADVANTAGES
- 11. Results of Current Climate Models •Around the world, different teams of scientists have built and run models to project future climate conditions under various scenarios for the next century. •The model results project that global temperature will continue to increase, but show that human decisions and behavior we choose today will determine how dramatically climate will change in the future.
- 12. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE •Climate change has a negative effect on humans. Since the 19th century the overall surface temperature of the Earth has increased from 3 to 6 degree. •These temperatures may seem weighed down by the increase in temperature but this will eventually shape disaster.
- 14. Due to climate change, there has been an increase in the number of different kinds of calamities on human life. Presently the effects of climate change can be seen clearly. The following side effects of climate change can be seen as: 1. Due to rising sea water level, due to submerged submergence parts of coastal areas, coastal flood threat will increase, resulting in coastal areas to be evacuated. 2. Due to climate change the spread of desertification has become a major problem. 3. Already more problem is arising due to the decrease in the quantity of water in areas which are facing problem of water scarcity.
- 15. 4. Due to climate change due to low rainfall, there has been a decrease in agricultural production. As a result, food crops have decreased.
- 16. 5. Due to lack of food crops and food items, people are becoming victims of starvation, malnutrition. There by increasing the number of dead. 6. Due to climate change, many species of animals and plants are becoming extinct. 8. The landslide and avalanche incidents have become normal due to the melting of the glacier. MENDENHALL GLACIER,ALASKA
- 17. • Decrease in the use of fossil fuels • To adopt sources of natural energy such as solar energy, wind energy etc. • Trees should be saved and more plantation should be done. • Neutral and impossible substances should not be used in decomposition like plastics. • To adopt sources of natural energy such as solar energy, wind energy etc. • Trees should be saved and more plantation should be done. • Neutral and impossible substances should not be used in decomposition like plastics WAYS TO REDUCE THE DRIVERS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
- 18. What Steps Is Taken By Indian Governments For Solving Climate Change Problem? •India has aggressive goals even for the automotive market, with plans to allow the sale of only electric and hybrid vehicles starting from 2030. The challenge to realize this objective, though, will be to build the infrastructure needed to support battery-driven cars. •Ambitious targets have been set: The goal is to source 40 percent of India's electricity from renewable and other low-carbon sources by 2030. It also wants to reach 175 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity by 2022 - of which 100 GW will be from solar energy. Furthermore, India joined hands with France to launch an alliance of 121 countries to dramatically boost the use of solar power.
- 19. •India Demanding Green Technology Transfers From Developed Countries.
- 20. Things we Can Do About Global Warming •we could drive a few miles fewer a year. •Turn down our thermostat in winter. •Replace our incandescent light bulbs with LEDs. •Reduce our meat consumption. •Turn Off The Heating Or A/C When we're Not at Home. •reduce our water waste •When we do drive, make sure we're not spending more than 30 seconds idling and go easy on the gas pedal and brakes. Also, check our tire pressure on a regular basis. That can really improve your gas consumption rate. •Recycle our home's waste newsprint, cardboard, glass and metal.
- 21. •Leave our cars at home (walk, bike or take mass transit instead). •Insulate our homes, clean our air conditioning filters and install energy efficient showerheads. •Plant native, drought-resistant trees and shrubs around your home and outdoor air conditioning unit. •Use an electric or push mower instead of a gasoline- powered mower to cut your lawn. •Replace your current home appliances (refrigerator, washing machine, dish washer) with high-efficiency models. •Buy food and other products with reusable or recyclable packaging instead of those in non-recyclable packaging.