Climate Information for Mitigation and Adaptation
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The document discusses the need for integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, emphasizing that current climate variability must be addressed alongside projections for future climate scenarios. It highlights the uncertainties in climate modeling, particularly for precipitation, and the importance of flexible, science-based approaches to inform decision-making. The author advocates for a focus on present climate risks and the establishment of plausible climate scenarios for effective mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Climate Information for Mitigation and Adaptation
- 1. Finding Synergies Between Adapting To Climate Change and Mitigation Climate Information for Mitigation and Adaptation Walter E. Baethgen Head, Regional and Sectorial Research Program IRI, The Earth Institute, Columbia University Walter E. Baethgen 2013
- 2. Planning, Decision Making, Policy Making Adaptation to What? What Can We Expect? What Mitigation options are likely to succeed? (REDD+, NAMAs, CDM) Information on Future Climate Walter E. Baethgen 2013
- 3. Future Climate Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs) Complex models that simulate physical processes in the atmosphere, oceans and land Models are getting better Walter E. Baethgen 2013
- 4. Anomalies (mm/month) Climate Models: Simulating Past Observed Climate Example: SE South America SONDJF IPCC Model Range and Mean Walter E. Baethgen 2013
- 5. Anomalies (mm/month) Climate Models: Simulating Past Observed Climate Example: SE South America SONDJF Observed IPCC Model Range and Mean Walter E. Baethgen 2013
- 6. Future Climate Scenarios: Using Climate Models (GCMs) 1. Great advances in science, but still lots to understand: Uncertainties due to Models 2. Key Input: GHG Emissions Assumptions: (e.g., in 2080-2100) Technologies? Energy Sources? Deforestation rates? Population? Uncertainties (IPCC Scenarios) Walter E. Baethgen 2013
- 7. Future Climate and Socioeconomic Scenarios 1000 900 CO2 ppm 800 A1B A1F 700 A2 600 B1 500 B2 400 300 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 CO2 atmospheric concentration for different development options Walter E. Baethgen 2013 In AR5: Radiative Forcing Values (similar assumptions) Source: IPCC, 2001
- 8. Expected Global Temperature For Different Socioeconomic Scenarios (Reference: 1986 – 2005) Uncertainty Source: IPCC, 2013 (Draft) Walter E. Baethgen 2013
- 9. For Precipitation Uncertainties are Much Larger Example in East Africa: 90% of the Climate Models agree it will become wetter Individual Model Runs and Averages +25% -10% East Africa All scenarios have equal chances This is for large “Windows” At Local level Uncertainties are much larger Walter E. Baethgen 2013 Giannini et al., 2007
- 10. Conclusion: Climate Change Scenarios are Uncertain IPCC’s objective was not to create scenarios for impact assessment However: Published articles with Crop Yield Projections 2020 Percent change in Crop Yields for one climate change scenario PROBLEM: This is easily understood Can be “erroneously” believed Maladaptation / “Malmitigation” 2050 2080 Walter E. Baethgen 2013 Uncertainty?
- 11. Climate Change Scenarios and Decision Makers: Decision Makers (including Policy Makers): Pressure to act on immediate to short-term problems Scientific Community: Scenarios for 2080, 2100 Great for Public Awareness, but CC is a problem of the FUTURE CC scenarios: Uncertainty at regional / local level is large Result: CC is often not in the policy agendas, planning Walter E. Baethgen 2013
- 12. We Need New Approaches: 1. Different Temporal Scales of Climate Variability Sahel: Annual Precipitation Annual Precipitation over the Sahel 700 650 Observed Interannual Variability 290mm from one year to next 600 Rainfall (mm) 550 55% 500 Decadal Variability 250mm in 20 years 450 400 “Climate Change” 180mm in 100 years 350 300 250 Most of the world: 65% - 20% - 15% Int - Dec - CC 200 1900 1920 1940 1960 Walter E. Baethgen 2013 1980 2000 27% 18%
- 13. Initial Thoughts Scenarios based exclusively on Climate Models are uncertain (worse for precipitation, worse at regional, even worse at local) Scenarios focusing only in “trends” (Climate Change) miss critical Information on Climate Variability that can affect Adaptation and Mitigation efforts (e.g., Interannual, Decadal Variability) The majority of the total climate variability is found in the Interannual temporal scale (60-80%) Walter E. Baethgen 2013
- 14. A Complementary Approach to “Traditional” Climate Change: Climate Risk Management Climate Change is a problem of the PRESENT (happening already) as opposed to a problem of the FUTURE Some of the most damaging impacts of Climate Change are expected to be due to increased Climate Variability (droughts, floods, fires, storms) Start by improving adaptation to current climate variability Mitigation options should be planned for the “long term”, but one large event (e.g., fire) may destroy all the efforts (i.e., consider interannual variability, climate risks) Future Climate: Work in “Near-term” Climate Change (i.e., 10-30 years) -Establish a range of plausible future climate scenarios (with Decadal and Interannual) -Connect to Models: Crops, Carbon, Forestry (MITIGATION and ADAPTATION) -Identify interventions with highest chances of success Walter E. Baethgen 2013
- 15. Final Comments Climate Risk Management and Adaptation to Climate Change •Improve Adaptation to Future Climate starting by Improving Adaptation to TODAY’S Climate •Adapt with flexibility: range of plausible climates interventions most likely to succeed Climate Risk Management and Mitigation of Climate Change •Mitigation efforts are also subject to Climate related Risks •Long-term Mitigation efforts can be hampered by short-term climate variability •Mitigate with flexibility: range of plausible climates interventions most likely to succeed Science-based Resources to Inform Policy •Integrate Climate Information into Decision Support Systems, considering Uncertainties Understandable and Actionable! Walter E. Baethgen 2013
- 16. Thank you Walter E. Baethgen Head, Regional and Sectorial Research Program Leader, Latina America and Caribbean IRI, The Earth Institute at Columbia University Tel: (845) 680-4459 email: Internet: baethgen@iri.columbia.edu http://iri.columbia.edu/ Walter E. Baethgen 2013