This document analyzes the performance of the first-fit wavelength assignment algorithm in optical networks. It proposes a new analytical technique to calculate the blocking probability of a source-destination pair taking into account wavelength correlation and load correlation between links. The model is accurate even with a large number of wavelengths. It first calculates the probabilities that wavelengths are used on individual links and paths. Then it establishes a wavelength correlation model to calculate the blocking probability on a given path based on the wavelength usage probabilities of each link along the path.