Contralateral prophilactic mastectmoy is cost-effective

Cost-Effectiveness of Contralateral Prophylactic
Mastectomy Versus Routine Surveillance in Patients
With Unilateral Breast Cancer
Benjamin Zendejas, James P. Moriarty, Jamie O’Byrne, Amy C. Degnim, David R. Farley, and Judy C. Boughey
From the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN.
Submitted March 1, 2011; accepted
April 12, 2011; published online ahead
of print at www.jco.org on June 20,
2011.
Supported by Grant No. 1 UL1
RR024150 from the National Center for
Research Resources, a component of
the National Institutes of Health (NIH),
and the NIH Roadmap for Medical
Research. B.Z. is a recipient of the
American Society of Clinical Oncology
Foundation Merit Award.
Presented at the American Society of
Clinical Oncology Breast Cancer
Symposium, October 1-3, 2010, Wash-
ington, DC, and at the Society of Surgi-
cal Oncology’s 64th Annual Cancer
Symposium, March 2-5, 2011, San
Antonio, TX.
The contents of this article are solely
the responsibility of the authors and do
not necessarily represent the official
view of National Center for Research
Resource or the National Institutes of
Health.
Authors’ disclosures of potential con-
flicts of interest and author contribu-
tions are found at the end of this
article.
Corresponding author: Judy C.
Boughey, MD, Department of Surgery,
Mayo Clinic, 200 First St SW, Roches-
ter MN, 55905; e-mail: boughey.judy@
mayo.edu.
© 2011 by American Society of Clinical
Oncology
0732-183X/11/2922-2993/$20.00
DOI: 10.1200/JCO.2011.35.6956
A B S T R A C T
Purpose
Contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) rates in women with unilateral breast cancer are
increasing despite controversy regarding survival advantage. Current scrutiny of the medical costs
led us to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of CPM versus routine surveillance as an alternative
contralateral breast cancer (CBC) risk management strategy.
Methods
Using a Markov model, we simulated patients with breast cancer from mastectomy to death.
Model parameters were gathered from published literature or national databases. Base-case
analysis focused on patients with average-risk breast cancer, 45 years of age at treatment.
Outcomes were valued in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Patients’ age, risk level of breast
cancer, and quality of life (QOL) were varied to assess their impact on results.
Results
Mean costs of treatment for women age 45 years are comparable: $36,594 for the CPM and
$35,182 for surveillance. CPM provides 21.22 mean QALYs compared with 20.93 for surveillance,
resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $4,869/QALY gained for CPM. To
prevent one CBC, six CPMs would be needed. CPM is no longer cost-effective for patients older
than 70 years (ICER $62,750/QALY). For BRCA-positive patients, CPM is clearly cost-effective,
providing more QALYs while being less costly. In non-BRCA patients, cost-effectiveness of CPM
is highly dependent on assumptions regarding QOL for CPM versus surveillance strategy.
Conclusion
CPM is cost-effective compared with surveillance for patients with breast cancer who are younger
than 70 years. Results are sensitive to BRCA-positive status and assumptions of QOL differences
between CPM and surveillance patients. This highlights the importance of tailoring treatment for
individual patients.
J Clin Oncol 29:2993-3000. © 2011 by American Society of Clinical Oncology
INTRODUCTION
Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in
women,with192,000estimatednewcasesoccurring
annually in the United States.1
In recent years,
breast-conserving therapy (BCT) has become the
treatment of choice, resulting in fewer women un-
dergoing unilateral mastectomy. Within this con-
text, however, a recent increased trend in the use of
contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) as a
risk reduction strategy for contralateral breast can-
cer (CBC) has been observed nationally.2-5
Women treated for unilateral breast cancer
carry an estimated annual risk of 0.5% to 1.0% of
developing a CBC.6
Women often perceive that
their risk of CBC is greater than this and struggle
with the decision of how to manage their contralat-
eral breast. They can either choose to undergo rou-
tine surveillance of their contralateral breast or
undergo CPM. Although CPM has been shown to
decrease the risk of CBC by 90% to 95%,7-9
the
ability of CPM to prolong survival is controversial;
indeed most data show no overall survival benefit
for the majority of women.10
Substantial long-term costs are incurred with
routine surveillance of the contralateral breast. These
costsincludebutarenotlimitedtoregularphysician
visits, imaging studies (mammography, and where
indicated, ultrasonography and magnetic resonance
imaging [MRI]), possible diagnostic biopsies, and
eventuallytheinherentpossibilityofdevelopingand
having to treat a CBC, which introduces more asso-
ciated costs (surgery, radiation, chemotherapy, and
so on) and its psychological burden. Conversely, the
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costs involved with CPM are related to the procedure itself and its
associatedshort-andlong-termmorbidity,alongwithfollow-upphy-
sician visits; however, no long-term imaging surveillance is required
andtheriskofdevelopingaCBCissubstantiallydecreased.Wesought
to determine whether CPM is a cost-effective alternative to routine
surveillanceasarisk-managementstrategyforCBC.Wehypothesized
that CPM would be a cost-effective alternative for younger patients,
but not for all patients with breast cancer.
METHODS
Using decision analytic software (TreeAge Pro 2009; TreeAge Software, Wil-
liamstown, MA), we constructed a Markov model (Fig 1) to estimate and
compare the direct medical costs and health outcomes associated with two
CBC risk management strategies for patients with early-stage, node-negative,
unilateral breast cancer: unilateral mastectomy followed by either surveillance
(standard of care) or CPM. Six distinct and mutually exclusive health states
were considered: disease-free, locally recurrent breast cancer, CBC, metastatic
breast cancer, death as a result of disease, death as a result of other causes. The
study was considered exempt by the Mayo Clinic institutional review board.
Main model assumptions are illustrated in Figure 2. We assumed that
women who underwent CPM had a mastectomy, as opposed to BCT, as
treatment of their index breast cancer because it is unusual for women to
consider CPM if they opt for BCT. After breast cancer treatment, all patients
would be considered disease-free and be seen by a physician every 6 months
during the first 5 years and yearly thereafter, unless they developed a new
episode of breast cancer, at which point they would return to the same initial
post–breast cancer treatment follow-up pattern.11
In addition to physician
visits,patientsinthesurveillancegroupwouldalsoundergoannualmammog-
raphywithcomputer-aideddetection.SurveillancepatientsdevelopingaCBC
were assumed to undergo a unilateral mastectomy for treatment of the new
contralateral cancer. Diagnostic tests that identified and confirmed the new
CBC were assumed to be mammography with computer-aided detection,
ultrasonographic-guided biopsy with associated pathology, and breast MRI.
CPM patients developing a CBC (occurrence of breast cancer at the CPM
site) would undergo wide local excision of the chest wall mass and would
undergo similar diagnostic and confirmatory testing similar to that of
those patients in the routine surveillance strategy, with the exception of
mammographic imaging.
In either strategy, patients who developed a local recurrence on the
side of their index breast cancer were assumed to undergo wide local
Disease Free
CBC
Recurrent Cancer
Metastatic Cancer
Died from Other Causes
Disease Free
Disease Free
CBC
Recurrent Cancer
Metastatic Cancer
CBC
Disease Free
CBC
Recurrent Cancer
Metastatic Cancer
Recurrent Cancer
Metastatic Cancer
Died from Disease
Died from Other Cuases
Metastatic Cancer
Died from Disease
CPM / Surveillance
Fig 1. Markov model. Patients could transition into death from other causes
from any of the four living states (disease-free, contralateral breast cancer
[CBC], recurrent cancer, metastatic cancer). Once a patient is in the meta-
static state, that patient could not transition to any other living health state.
Only patients in the metastatic state could transition to death from disease.
All patients were assumed to start the model in the disease-free health state
after the index breast cancer treatment. CPM, contralateral prophylactic
mastectomy.
Table 1. Estimates Used in the Markov Model
Variable
Base-Case
Estimate Reference
Annual transition probabilities, %
CBC (CPM) 0.03 7-9,12
CBC (surveillance) 0.6 6,7,13,14
CBC (BRCA positive, CPM) 0.4 9,15,16
CBC (BRCA positive,
surveillance)
4 17,18
Local recurrence 0.63 SEER19
Metastatic cancer 1.25 SEER19
Death from metastatic disease 25.21 SEER19
Death from other causes Age-specific National Vital Statistics20
Costs,‫ء‬
US$
Physician office visit (99214) 97.78 www.cms.hhs.gov21
Breast biopsy (19102) 203.13 www.cms.hhs.gov21
Breast ultrasound (76645) 98.16 www.cms.hhs.gov21
Breast MRI (77059) 888.70 www.cms.hhs.gov21
PET (78813) 101.94 www.cms.hhs.gov21
CT chest (74150) 274.38 www.cms.hhs.gov21
CT abdomen (71250) 288.02 www.cms.hhs.gov21
Bone scan (78306) 257.70 www.cms.hhs.gov21
Unilateral mammogram (77055) 87.16 www.cms.hhs.gov21
Computer-aided detection
(77051)
10.23 www.cms.hhs.gov21
Chemotherapy† 10,963.77 www.cms.hhs.gov21
Radiation therapy‡ 14,071.18 www.cms.hhs.gov21
Bilateral simple mastectomy
(85.42)
12,668 2007 NIS database22
Unilateral simple mastectomy
(85.41)
8502 2007 NIS database22
Wide local excision (85.21) 8446 2007 NIS database22
Death from disease 46,329 10,23-27
Death from other causes 34,257 27
Abbreviations: CBC, contralateral breast cancer; CPM, contralateral prophy-
lactic mastectomy; PET, positron emission tomography; CT, computed to-
mography; MRI, magnetic resonance imaging; NIS, Nationwide Inpatient
Sample; SEER, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results.
‫ء‬
Numbers in parentheses are Current Procedural Terminology, 4th edition
(CPT4)/International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision codes.
†Four cycles of doxorubicin, cyclophosphamide, and pegfilgrastim followed
by four cycles of paclitaxel and pegfilgrastim (CPT4 codes: J9000, J9070,
J2505, 96413, 96372, 96415, 96411, J8499, J1626, J9265, J1100, J3490,
J1200, 96367, 96375).
‡Thirty-day treatment regimen (CPT4 codes: 77263, 77336, 77014, 77290,
77334, 77315, 77300, 77427, 77413, 77321).
Zendejas et al
2994 © 2011 by American Society of Clinical Oncology JOURNAL OF CLINICAL ONCOLOGY

excision of the chest wall mass. Diagnostic testing for a recurrence would
include ultrasonographic-guided biopsy with associated pathology, chest
MRI, and positron emission tomography imaging. After operative treat-
ment, patients with a local recurrence were assumed to undergo chemo-
therapy and radiation therapy. Patients who developed metastatic cancer
were assumed to undergo similar diagnostic work-up as prompted by a
recurrence, with the addition of thoracoabdominal computed tomography
imaging and bone scans. The diagnostic and therapeutic costs of each
health state were assumed to only occur at the transition point and not in
subsequent years in the health state. No treatment differences were as-
sumed between the CPM or surveillance strategy in the locally recurrent or
metastatic cancer state.
The development of CBC or a local recurrence was based on yearly
rates of developing either a new CBC or an ipsilateral breast cancer recur-
rence (Table 1). Both events, locally recurrent cancer and CBC, would get
treated the same year of diagnosis. Patients developing metastatic disease
would not transition back to disease-free status and would remain in the
metastatic disease state until death, incurring both palliative therapy costs
and end-of-life care expenses (ie, inpatient, outpatient, nursing facility,
supportive medications, and hormone, chemo, and/or radiation
therapy).23-26
We assumed that although a new CBC would be diagnosed as an early-
stage breast cancer, the yearly probability of metastatic disease would become
cumulative as two low-stage breast cancers are thought to have additive detri-
mental effects on survival.29,30
Similarly, patients who develop a local recur-
rence would subsequently have a cumulative probability of metastatic disease.
In other words, a woman who has had two breast cancers (either an index
breast cancer and a CBC or an index breast cancer and a local recurrence)
would have a higher probability of developing metastatic disease than women
who have had only one breast cancer episode.
Each Markov cycle in the simulation was assumed to last 1 year. Simula-
tions consisted of 10,000 individual patients starting from the index breast
cancer and moved through the model until death. Half-cycle corrections were
accounted for in the model.31
Costs were discounted using a 3% annual
discount rate.32
Transition Parameters
Transition parameters were gathered from published literature or pub-
lically available national databases (Table 1). The transition rate into death
fromothercauseswasbasedon2004,age-adjustedfemalemortalityratesfrom
the National Vital Statistics database.20
Cost Parameters
Costs were based on the perspective of the health care provider, which
included direct costs of medical care related to breast cancer treatment. Costs
were categorized by those that occurred in an inpatient or outpatient setting.
Inpatient and outpatient costs were obtained from the Nationwide Inpatient
Sample database22
and from 2007 rates for Medicare reimbursement,21
re-
spectively (Table 1). All costs are presented in 2007 US dollars.
Quality-of-Life Parameters
Quality-of-life adjustment was incorporated into the model on the
basis of age-specific health preferences using the concept of utility. Utility
theory values quality of life on the basis of individual preferences of various
health states.33
The quality-of-life adjustment is represented in the form of
quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). One QALY would represent 1 year
spent in perfect health, whereas a year spent in all other health states would
be some fraction of a QALY. Age-specific health preferences (utility
weights) for each health state were obtained from published literature
(Table 2).28,34
Similar to Stout et al,28
we assumed that patients had a utility
weight inferior to that of the healthy state for the first 2 years after cancer
treatment, after which they would return to having a healthy state utility
weight, as long as they did not transition into another health state. New
CBCs and recurrent cancers were assumed to have the same utility weights.
Patients in the CPM and surveillance groups were assumed to have similar
utility weights for each health state.35,36
Base-Case Analysis
Patient simulations were started at age 45 years and increased by 5-year
incrementsuntilage75years.Primaryoutcomeswerethemeancostoflifetime
Contralateral
Breast Cancer
Mammogram + CAD (S)
US Biopsy + pathology
Breast MRI
Mastectomy (S)
Wide local excision (C)
End-of-life care
Physician visits
Mammogram + CAD (S)
Physician visits*
Breast MRI
PET scan
Wide local excision
Chemoradiotherapy
PET scan & breast MRI
CT & bone scans
Disease Free
Local
Recurrence
Metastatic
Cancer
Mastectomy
Unilateral Breast Cancer
Fig 2. Flow diagram of model assump-
tions and transitions. (*) Every 6 months for
the first 5 years after treatment and yearly
thereafter Ϯ every 6 months until death. C,
contralateral prophylactic mastectomy strat-
egy only; CAD, computer-aided detection;
CT, computed tomography; MRI, magnetic
resonance imaging; PET, positron emission
tomography; S, surveillance strategy only;
US, ultrasound.
Table 2. Utility Weights for the Markov Model
Age
(years)
Disease
Free
Breast
Cancer
Local
Recurrence
Metastatic
Disease Reference
45-49 0.804 0.724 0.603 0.482 28
50-54 0.780 0.702 0.585 0.468 28
55-59 0.747 0.672 0.560 0.448 28
60-64 0.745 0.670 0.558 0.447 28
65-69 0.734 0.660 0.550 0.440 28
70-75 0.716 0.645 0.537 0.430 28
Cost-Effectiveness of Prophylactic Mastectomy
www.jco.org © 2011 by American Society of Clinical Oncology 2995

treatment of breast cancer, mean lifetime QALYs, number of CPMs needed to
prevent one CBC, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) compar-
ing CPM with surveillance. The threshold we used for determining the cost-
effectivenessofCPMwas$50,000perQALYgained;webasedthisassumption
on the report from the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health, which
deﬁnes interventions with a cost-effectiveness ratio that is less than the per
capita gross domestic product ($46,381 for the United States in 2009)37
as
“very cost-effective.”38
Secondary outcomes were total life-years spent in each
health state, number of patients dying as a result of disease, and average
life expectancy.
Table 3. Main Results
Age at Treatment (years) and Analysis
CPM Surveillance Differences
Cost QALY Cost QALY Cost QALY C/E‫ء‬
Base-case analysis
45 $36,594 21.22 $35,182 20.93 $1,412 0.29 $4,869
50 $37,457 18.72 $35,871 18.49 $1,586 0.23 $6,896
55 $38,069 16.24 $36,314 16.05 $1,755 0.19 $9,237
60 $38,860 13.80 $36,780 13.68 $2,080 0.12 $17,333
65 $39,747 11.47 $37,490 11.39 $2,257 0.08 $28,213
70 $40,746 9.07 $38,236 9.03 $2,510 0.04 $62,750
75 $41,843 6.84 $39,041 6.81 $2,802 0.03 $93,400
Sensitivity analyses
Risk of metastasis not cumulative
45 $36,250 21.58 $34,625 21.52 $1,625 0.06 $27,083
50 $37,175 18.95 $35,403 18.91 $1,772 0.04 $44,300
55 $37,770 16.41 $35,878 16.37 $1,892 0.04 $47,300
60 $38,755 13.88 $36,604 13.84 $2,151 0.04 $53,775
65 $39,618 11.51 $37,246 11.49 $2,372 0.02 $118,600
70 $40,710 9.11 $38,132 9.09 $2,578 0.02 $128,900
75 $41,797 6.86 $38,925 6.84 $2,872 0.02 $143,600
No end-of-life care costs
45 $18,838 21.22 $17,152 20.93 $1,686 0.29 $5,814
50 $18,702 18.72 $16,878 18.49 $1,824 0.23 $7,930
55 $18,184 16.24 $16,210 16.05 $1,974 0.19 $10,389
60 $17,591 13.80 $15,365 13.68 $2,226 0.12 $18,550
65 $17,157 11.47 $14,789 11.39 $2,368 0.08 $29,600
70 $16,478 9.07 $13,895 9.03 $2,583 0.04 $64,575
75 $15,869 6.84 $13,008 6.81 $2,861 0.03 $95,367
BRCA-positive patients
45 $37,459 21.13 $41,820 19.36 Ϫ$4,361 1.77 Ϫ$2,464†
50 $38,173 18.59 $41,822 17.23 Ϫ$3,649 1.36 Ϫ$2,683†
55 $38,815 16.11 $41,817 15.14 Ϫ$3,002 0.97 Ϫ$3,095†
60 $39,370 13.72 $41,659 13.03 Ϫ$2,289 0.69 Ϫ$3,317†
65 $40,391 11.40 $42,187 10.94 Ϫ$1,796 0.46 Ϫ$3,904†
70 $41,301 9.04 $42,203 8.75 Ϫ$902 0.29 Ϫ$3,110†
75 $42,194 6.82 $42,201 6.63 Ϫ$7 0.19 Ϫ$37†
CPM health preference greater than surveillance
45 $36,594 22.74 $35,182 20.93 $1,412 1.81 $780
50 $37,457 20.09 $35,871 18.49 $1,586 1.60 $991
55 $38,069 17.45 $36,314 16.05 $1,755 1.40 $1,254
60 $38,860 14.85 $36,780 13.68 $2,080 1.17 $1,778
65 $39,747 12.37 $37,490 11.39 $2,257 0.98 $2,303
70 $40,746 9.81 $38,236 9.03 $2,510 0.78 $3,218
75 $41,843 7.43 $39,041 6.81 $2,802 0.62 $4,519
CPM health preference less than surveillance
45 $36,594 19.70 $35,182 20.93 $1,412 Ϫ1.23 Ϫ$1,148‡
50 $37,457 17.35 $35,871 18.49 $1,586 Ϫ1.14 Ϫ$1,391‡
55 $38,069 15.03 $36,314 16.05 $1,755 Ϫ1.02 Ϫ$1,721‡
60 $38,860 12.75 $36,780 13.68 $2,080 Ϫ0.93 Ϫ$2,237‡
65 $39,747 10.57 $37,490 11.39 $2,257 Ϫ0.82 Ϫ$2,752‡
70 $40,746 8.33 $38,236 9.03 $2,510 Ϫ0.70 Ϫ$3,586‡
75 $41,843 6.25 $39,041 6.82 $2,802 Ϫ0.56 Ϫ$5,004‡
Abbreviations: C/E, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; CPM, contralateral prophylactic mastectomy; QALY, quality-adjusted life-years.
‫ء‬
Numbers in bold are below the $50,000 threshold.
†Denotes CPM being both less costly and more effective (dominant).
‡Denotes CPM being both more costly and less effective (dominated).
Zendejas et al

Sensitivity Analysis
Base-case analyses were replicated for the following changes in assump-
tions: risk of metastasis not cumulative because of additional cancers, exclud-
ingmedicalcostsassociatedwithdeathandend-of-lifecare,increasingtherisk
of breast cancer of the cohort to that of a patient with a positive deleterious
mutation in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 gene, and changing the disease-free utility
weights for CPM by Ϯ 0.05.
RESULTS
Base-Case Analysis
Meancostoflifetime,breastcancer–relatedtreatmentuntildeath
for women age 45 years were $36,594 for the CPM strategy and
$35,182 for the surveillance strategy (Table 3). The CPM strategy
provided 21.22 mean QALYs as compared with 20.93 for the surveil-
lancestrategy.ThisresultedinanICERof$4,869perQALYgainedfor
CPM when compared with routine surveillance.
As age at treatment increases, CPM becomes less cost-effective.
CPM is no longer cost-effective for patients 70 years of age or older
(Fig 3). For women 45 years of age, on average, both CPM and
surveillancepatientslivedtoage74years(Table4).TherateofCBCin
the CPM group was 87 per 10,000, whereas the rate in the surveillance
group was 1,705 per 10,000. Results are similar as age increases. Given
the rates of CBC observed in each group, six CPMs are needed to
prevent one CBC.
Sensitivity Analysis
Removing the assumption of a cumulative risk of metastasis for
additional nonmetastatic cancer modifies the results, with CPM no
longercost-effectiveforpatients55yearsofageorolder.Excludingthe
costs of end-of-life care has a large impact on mean costs, decreasing
thecostofCPMto$18,838andsurveillanceto$17,152.However,this
adjustment had little overall effect on the ICERs.
For BRCA-positive patients, the CPM strategy is a “dominant
strategy” in that it is less costly ($37,459 v $41,820) and provides more
QALYs when compared with surveillance (21.13 v 19.36). This obser-
vationistrueforallages.Additionally,themortalityrateis13%greater
for the surveillance group, which resulted in a decrease in the mean
survival of patients undergoing routine surveillance by 2 years to age
72 years.
Results vary when modifying disease-free utility weights for the
CPM group. Assuming that CPM has a superior utility weight to that
ofsurveillanceresultsinCPMbeingcost-effectiveforallageranges.In
contrast, assuming that CPM has an inferior utility weight to that of
surveillanceresultsinCPMbeingdominatedbythesurveillancestrat-
egy, in that surveillance is less costly and produces more QALYs. With
the exception of BRCA-positive patients, sensitivity analyses had little
to no effects on secondary outcomes (Table 4).
DISCUSSION
This study represents the first cost-effectiveness analysis comparing
CPM with routine surveillance for patients with unilateral breast can-
cer.Base-caseresultsshowCPMtobecost-effectiveintheyoungerage
groups. As expected, the rate of new contralateral cancers is much less
for the CPM group. For the general population of patients with breast
cancer,theassumptionthattheutilityweightsforthedisease-freestate
for CPM was equal to or greater than that of surveillance was key to
CPM being cost-effective. In fact, primary end points favored surveil-
lance when assuming that the disease-free health state for CPM had
lower utility weights than that of surveillance. However, when focus-
ing on patients at high risk for developing breast cancer, CPM was
dominant(bothlesscostlyandproducingmoreQALYs)atallstarting
ages of patients.
The results of our model are consistent with those of other mod-
eling and clinical studies that show a lack of survival advantage from
CPMforthegeneralpopulationofpatientswithbreastcancer.7,10,15,39
Our results also highlight the substantial decrease in the number of
CBCsafterCPM.Onemustconsiderthatthebeneficialimpactofsuch
a decrease in new breast cancers is not solely financial, but also has the
potential to greatly decrease patients’ burden of suffering as well as
demands on health care resources resulting from a diagnosis of a
second breast cancer. This decrease of risk of a second breast cancer
and avoidance of repeat breast cancer treatment, rather than the con-
troversialsurvivaladvantageofCPM,islikelythereasonbehindrecent
increasing rates of CPM. Women who have already experienced a
breast cancer may view the trade-offs between quantity and quality of
lifedifferentlythancancer-freewomenandmayhavelowerthresholds
for choosing prophylactic surgery to avoid a second cancer,15
espe-
cially in situations when mastectomy is required for the first cancer.
For patients at high risk (BRCA positive) of developing a CBC,
ourstudyresultsareconsistentwiththosefromSchragetal.15,40
Using
similar decision analysis techniques, they showed an increased life
expectancy for women with BRCA mutations who undergo prophy-
lactic mastectomy, with and without a previous diagnosis of breast
cancer. Our results also show a similar trend with regard to age, with
gains in life expectancy declining with age at time of prophylactic
surgery. Although we did not account for the degree of penetrance of
the BRCA mutation and therefore the potential variation in CBC risk,
the results observed in our study are consistent with a 2-year increase
in life expectancy (on average) for BRCA-positive patients with breast
cancer who undergo CPM at age 45 years.15
In theory, some patients who undergo CPM could value the
qualityoftheirlifetobelower,secondarytoself-imagedistress,thanif
they had chosen surveillance, whereas others could report higher
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
45 50 55 60 65 70 75
ThousandsofUSDollars
(2007)/QALY
Age
50K Threshold
Fig 3. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio by age for patients with average-risk
breast cancer. QALY, quality-adjusted life-year.

health preference for CPM because they are no longer as fearful of
developinganewCBC.Althoughtheliteraturesuggeststhatqualityof
life is similar in patients who undergo CPM or surveillance,35,36
we
varied the utility weights of the CPM group to assess the impact of an
individual’shigherorlowerhealthpreferencefortheCPMhealthstate
and found that results are sensitive to this assumption, highlighting
the important role that individual health preferences play in the cost-
effectiveness of prophylactic surgery.
Our study has some limitations. As is the case with modeling
studies, our results depend on the data and assumptions used in the
Table 4. Secondary Outcomes Per Entire Cohort of 10,000 Simulated Patients
Starting Age (years)
Cohort and Analysis
Life
Expectancy
(years, mean)
No. of Deaths
From Disease
No. of Deaths
From Other
Causes
No. of Years Spent
in Disease-Free
No. of Years
Spent in New
Cancer
No. of Years
Spent in
Recurrent
Cancer
No. of Years
Spent in
Metastatic
Cancer
CPM Sur CPM Sur CPM Sur CPM Sur CPM Sur CPM Sur CPM Sur
Base-case analysis
45 74.3 74.0 3,565 3,793 6,435 6,207 277,564 271,734 87 1,705 1,802 1,796 14,029 14,852
50 76.4 76.1 3,199 3,379 6,801 6,621 249,332 244,596 73 1,564 1,738 1,730 12,538 13,166
55 78.3 78.1 2,748 2,928 7,252 7,072 219,998 215,879 70 1,420 1,506 1,479 11,099 11,829
60 80.0 79.9 2,353 2,461 7,647 7,539 189,650 186,904 65 1,188 1,263 1,238 9,458 9,912
65 82.0 81.9 1,854 1,934 8,146 8,066 161,276 159,330 58 1,002 1,081 1,086 7,504 7,757
70 83.8 83.8 1,564 1,614 8,436 8,386 131,183 129,769 42 889 863 862 6,014 6,233
75 85.8 85.8 1,144 1,181 8,856 8,819 102,646 101,650 25 673 683 688 4,518 4,647
Sensitivity analyses
Risk of metastasis not
cumulative
45 74.8 74.8 3,286 3,286 6,714 6,714 283,457 281,809 77 1,725 1,840 1,840 12,951 12,951
50 76.7 76.7 2,971 2,971 7,029 7,029 253,365 251,861 71 1,575 1,759 1,759 11,720 11,720
55 78.5 78.5 2,571 2,571 7,429 7,429 223,107 221,703 68 1,472 1,477 1,477 10,415 10,415
60 80.2 80.2 2,224 2,224 7,776 7,776 191,147 190,002 64 1,209 1,284 1,284 9,060 9,060
65 82.1 82.1 1,760 1,760 8,240 8,240 162,318 161,364 55 1,009 1,082 1,082 7,094 7,094
70 83.9 83.9 1,484 1,484 8,516 8,516 131,957 131,109 44 892 894 894 5,677 5,677
75 85.8 85.8 1,098 1,098 8,902 8,902 102,985 102,339 26 672 688 688 4,345 4,345
No end-of-life care costs
45 74.3 74.0 3,565 3,793 6,435 6,207 277,564 271,734 87 1,705 1,802 1,796 14,029 14,852
50 76.4 76.1 3,199 3,379 6,801 6,621 249,332 244,596 73 1,564 1,738 1,730 12,538 13,166
55 78.3 78.1 2,748 2,928 7,252 7,072 219,998 215,879 70 1,420 1,506 1,479 11,099 11,829
60 80.0 79.9 2,353 2,461 7,647 7,539 189,650 186,904 65 1,188 1,263 1,238 9,458 9,912
65 82.0 81.9 1,854 1,934 8,146 8,066 161,276 159,330 58 1,002 1,081 1,086 7,504 7,757
70 83.8 83.8 1,564 1,614 8,436 8,386 131,183 129,769 42 889 863 862 6,014 6,233
75 85.8 85.8 1,144 1,181 8,856 8,819 102,646 101,650 25 673 683 688 4,518 4,647
BRCA-positive patients
45 74.3 72.2 3,661 4,919 6,339 5,081 275,194 240,897 1,157 10,620 1,869 1,705 14,446 19,040
50 76.2 74.7 3,304 4,346 6,696 5,654 246,500 218,655 1,073 9,626 1,716 1,561 13,037 17,292
55 78.1 77.1 2,904 3,738 7,096 6,262 217,265 195,884 940 8,565 1,492 1,391 11,533 15,004
60 80.0 79.3 2,432 3,100 7,568 6,900 187,864 171,605 784 7,494 1,226 1,132 9,813 12,520
65 81.9 81.5 1,923 2,392 8,077 7,608 159,819 147,706 670 6,691 1,119 1,120 7,715 9,650
70 83.8 83.6 1,600 1,949 8,400 8,051 130,249 121,700 584 5,588 892 869 6,116 7,414
75 85.8 85.6 1,154 1,364 8,846 8,636 102,030 95,961 422 4,405 686 669 4,556 5,419
CPM health preference
greater than
surveillance
45 74.3 74.0 3,565 3,793 6,435 6,207 277,564 271,734 87 1,705 1,802 1,796 14,029 14,852
50 76.4 76.1 3,199 3,379 6,801 6,621 249,332 244,596 73 1,564 1,738 1,730 12,538 13,166
55 78.3 78.1 2,748 2,928 7,252 7,072 219,998 215,879 70 1,420 1,506 1,479 11,099 11,829
60 80.0 79.9 2,353 2,461 7,647 7,539 189,650 186,904 65 1,188 1,263 1,238 9,458 9,912
65 82.0 81.9 1,854 1,934 8,146 8,066 161,276 159,330 58 1,002 1,081 1,086 7,504 7,757
70 83.8 83.8 1,564 1,614 8,436 8,386 131,183 129,769 42 889 863 862 6,014 6,233
75 85.8 85.8 1,144 1,181 8,856 8,819 102,646 101,650 25 673 683 688 4,518 4,647
CPM health preference
less than surveillance
45 74.3 74.0 3,565 3,793 6,435 6,207 277,564 271,734 87 1,705 1,802 1,796 14,029 14,852
50 76.4 76.1 3,199 3,379 6,801 6,621 249,332 244,596 73 1,564 1,738 1,730 12,538 13,166
55 78.3 78.1 2,748 2,928 7,252 7,072 219,998 215,879 70 1,420 1,506 1,479 11,099 11,829
60 80.0 79.9 2,353 2,461 7,647 7,539 189,650 186,904 65 1,188 1,263 1,238 9,458 9,912
65 82.0 81.9 1,854 1,934 8,146 8,066 161,276 159,330 58 1,002 1,081 1,086 7,504 7,757
70 83.8 83.8 1,564 1,614 8,436 8,386 131,183 129,769 42 889 863 862 6,014 6,233
75 85.8 85.8 1,144 1,181 8,856 8,819 102,646 101,650 25 673 683 688 4,518 4,647
Abbreviations: CPM, contralateral prophylactic mastectomy; Sur, routine surveillance.
Zendejas et al

model. Furthermore, modeling studies are limited in that they can
capture only in broad strokes what happens in real life, because it is
difficulttosimplifythecomplexityinherentwithmoderndaymedical
practice into a mathematical model. However, a randomized con-
trolled trial to determine the cost and outcomes (QALYs) of CPM
compared with surveillance would be infeasible, if not impossible,
thereforeamodelingapproachmaybetheonlyrealisticalternative.To
minimize bias, only data from well-designed studies were used, and
when available, an average of the model parameter was obtained from
multiple sources. We did not consider costs generated to investigate a
nonmalignant suspicious mass; it is likely that such false-positive di-
agnostic evaluations would occur more commonly in the routine
surveillance group as a result of repeated screening mammograms. If
we had included these costs, it would have further favored the cost-
effectiveness of the CPM strategy. We did not take into account the
potential benefits of detecting synchronous contralateral breast can-
cersinthebreastspecimensafterCPM,becausethereisscantevidence
regarding its prognostic implications. We also did not evaluate costs
related to either immediate or delayed breast reconstruction. We can
speculate that the inclusion of breast reconstruction into the model
would increase both the total costs and the quality of life of patients in
the CPM strategy; however, because our purpose was to purely com-
paretwoalternativeCBCrisk-managementstrategies,weoptednotto
do so, although we recognize that this represents a venue for further
research. We also did not take into account complications related to
the surgical event of the CPM occurring beyond initial treatment.
These complications are usually minimal in the absence of breast
reconstruction,12,41
and if they were to occur, they would likely occur
duringtheinitialtreatmentandbecapturedinourestimatesobtained
fromtheNationwideInpatientSampledatabase.Wedidnottakeinto
account indirect costs such as patient lost wages as a result of medical
treatment after the index breast cancer. To have a complete appraisal
from the societal perspective, these indirect costs would be necessary.
Because the clinical outcomes were equivalent or favored CPM in all
simulations, we hypothesize that lost wages would also be equivalent
or favor CPM.
Wedidnotseparatepatientsbyhormonereceptorstatus,nordid
we incorporate endocrine therapy; the use of transition probability
estimates obtained from large studies encompassing heterogeneous
populationsandwithhighuseofendocrinetherapywouldaccountfor
such hormone receptor variability and the effect of endocrine therapy
on CBC risk. However, we do recognize that the use of endocrine
therapy is far more complex; it is dependent on multiple factors such
as patient acceptance, cost, adverse effects, discontinuation rate, and
so on. Therefore, the exact impact that endocrine therapy might have
on the cost-effectiveness of CPM versus surveillance represents fertile
ground for further research in the field.
In conclusion, CPM seems to be a cost-effective strategy for the
general population of patients with breast cancer who are younger
than70yearsofage.CPMremainscost-effectiveatanyageforpatients
whose health preference for CPM is higher than that of surveillance,
whereas, conversely, surveillance dominates CPM if a patient’s health
preferenceforCPMislowerthanthatofsurveillance.CPMisbothless
costly and provides more QALYs for high-risk patients (BRCA posi-
tive) of any age. Results should not be used to suggest that all patients
should undergo a CPM, nor that CPM is superior to surveillance. The
CPMdiscussionshouldbeindividualizedtoeachpatient,asthisstudy
highlights that the more cost-effective approach depends on patient
preference for a particular health state.
AUTHORS’ DISCLOSURES OF POTENTIAL CONFLICTS
OF INTEREST
The author(s) indicated no potential conflicts of interest.
AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS
Conception and design: All authors
Collection and assembly of data: Benjamin Zendejas, James P. Moriarty,
Jamie O’Byrne, David R. Farley, Judy C. Boughey
Data analysis and interpretation: All authors
Manuscript writing: All authors
Final approval of manuscript: All authors
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