Cost estimation techniques
- 1. CHAPTER 3 Cost-Estimation Techniques • Whenever an engineering economic analysis is performed for a major capital investment, the cost-estimating effort for that analysis should be an integral part of a comprehensive planning and design process requiring the active participation of not only engineering designers but also personnel from marketing, manufacturing, finance, and top management.
- 2. • Results of cost estimating are used for a variety of purposes, including the following: 1. Providing information used in setting a selling price for quoting, bidding, or evaluating contracts 2. Determining whether a proposed product can be made and distributed at a profit (for simplicity, price = cost + profit) 3. Evaluating how much capital can be justified for process changes or other improvements 4. Establishing benchmarks for productivity improvement programs
- 3. Approaches for Cost Estimating • There are two fundamental approaches to cost estimating: the “top-down” approach and the “bottom-up” approach. • The top-down approach basically uses historical data from similar engineering projects to estimate the costs, revenues, and other data for the current project by modifying these data for changes. • This approach is best used early in the estimating process when alternatives are still being developed and refined.
- 4. • The bottom-up approach is a more detailed method of cost estimating. This method breaks down a project into small, manageable units and estimates their economic consequences. • These smaller unit costs are added together with other types of costs to obtain an overall cost estimate. • This approach usually works bet when the detail concerning the desired output (a product or a service) has been defined and clarified.
- 6. The Internet • can also be a source of cost-estimating data, though you should assure yourself that the information is from a reputable source. • The following Web sites may be useful to you both professionally and personally.
- 8. An Integrated Approach • An integrated approach to developing the net cash flows for feasible project alternatives is shown in Figure . • This integrated approach includes three basic components: 1. Work breakdown structure (WBS) :This is a technique for explicitly defining, at successive levels of detail, the work elements of a project and their interrelationships (sometimes called a work element structure). 2. Cost and revenue structure(classification) :Delineation of the cost and revenue categories and elements is made for estimates of cash flows at each level of the WBS. 3. Estimating techniques (models) :Selected mathematical models are used to estimate the future costs and revenues during the analysis period. • These three basic components, together with integrating procedural steps, provide an organized approach for developing the cash flows for the alternatives.
- 11. • As shown in Figure , the integrated approach begins with a description of the project in terms of a WBS. WBS is used to describe the project and each alternative’s unique characteristics in terms of design, labor, material requirements,and so on. • Then these variations in design, resource requirements, and other characteristics are reflected in the estimated future costs and revenues (net cash flow) for that alternative. • To estimate future costs and revenues for an alternative, the perspective (viewpoint) of the cash flow must be established and an estimating baseline and analysis period defined.
- 12. • Normally, cash flows are developed from the owner’s viewpoint. The net cash flow for an alternative represents what is estimated to happen to future revenues and costs from the perspective being used. • Therefore, the estimated changes in revenues and costs associated with an alternative have to be relative to a baseline that is consistently used for all the alternatives being compared.
- 13. The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) • The first basic component in an integrated approach to developing cash flows is the work breakdown structure (WBS). • The WBS is a basic tool in project management and is a vital aid in an engineering economy study. • The WBS serves as a framework for defining all project work elements and their interrelationships, collecting and organizing information, developing relevant cost and revenue data, and integrating project management activities. • Figure shows a diagram of a typical four-level WBS. It is developed from the top (project level) down in successive levels of detail. The project is divided into its major work elements (Level 2). • These major elements are then divided to develop Level 3, and so on. For example, an automobile (first level of the WBS) can be divided into second-level components (or work elements) such as the chassis, drive train, and electrical system. • Then each second-level component of the WBS can be subdivided further into third-level elements. This process is continued until the desired detail in the definition and description of the project or system is achieved. •
- 14. • Different numbering schemes may be used. • The objectives of numbering are to indicate the interrelationships of the work elements in the hierarchy. • The scheme illustrated in Figure is an alphanumeric format. • Another scheme often used is all numeric—Level 1: 1-0; Level 2: 1-1, 1-2, 1-3; Level 3: 1-1-1, 1-1-2, 1-2-1, 1-2-2, 1-3-1, 1-3-2; and so on (i.e., similar to the organization of this book)..
- 18. Estimating Techniques (Models) • The third basic component of the integrated approach involves estimating techniques (models). • These techniques, together with the detailed cost and revenue data, are used to develop individual cash-flow estimates and the overall net cash flow for each alternative.
- 19. Indexes • Costs and prices vary with time for a number of reasons, including (1) technological advances, (2) availability of labor and materials (3) inflation. • An index is a dimensionless number that indicates how a cost or a price has changed with time (typically escalated) with respect to a base year. • Indexes provide a convenient means for developing present and future cost and price estimates from historical data.
- 20. INDEX Statistical device which summarizes a collection of data(usually related to the price or quantity of a 'basket' of goods and services) in a single base figure. This composite figure serves as a benchmark for measuring changes in the price or quantity data over a period (month, quarter, year). Usually, the base is assigned an arbitrary value of 100 and all subsequent data is expressed in relation to this base. For example, the consumer price index (CPI) of a year might stand at 95 (to indicate a fall of 5 percent in the prices) or 105 (to indicate an increase of 5 percent in the prices).
- 21. • An estimate of the cost or selling price of an item in year n can be obtained by multiplying the cost or price of the item at an earlier point in time (year k) by the ratio of the index value in year n to the index value in year k •
- 23. • This Equation is sometimes referred to as the ratio technique of updating costs and prices. • Use of this technique allows the cost or potential selling price of an item to be taken from historical data with a specified base year and updated with an index. • This concept can be applied at the lower levels of a WBS to estimate the cost of equipment, materials, and labor, • as well as at the top level of a WBS to estimate the total project cost of a new facility, bridge, and so on.
- 25. Power-Sizing Technique • The power-sizing technique, which is sometimes referred to as an exponential model is frequently used for developing capital investment estimates for industrial plants and equipment. • This technique recognizes that cost varies as some power of the change in capacity or size. • That is,
- 27. • The value of the cost-capacity factor will depend on the type of plant or equipment being estimated. • For example, X = 0.68 for nuclear generating plants and 0.79 for fossil-fuel generating plants.
- 29. Sources of Estimating Data • The information sources useful in cost and revenue estimating are too numerous to list completely. • The following four major sources of information are listed roughly in order of importance • 1. Accounting records. 2.Other sources within the firm. 3.Sources outside the firm 4.Research and development (R&D) 5.The Internet
- 30. Accounting records • Accounting records are a prime source of information for economic analysis. • accounting consists of a series of procedures for keeping a detailed record of monetary transactions between established categories of assets. • Accounting records are a good source of historical data
- 31. Other sources within the firm • The typical firm has a number of people and records that may be excellent sources of estimating information. • Examples of functions within firms that keep records useful to economic analyses are engineering, sales, production, quality, purchasing, and personnel.
- 32. Sources outside the firm • There are numerous sources outside the firm that can provide helpful information. • The main problem is in determining those that are most beneficial for particular needs. • The following is a listing of some commonly used outside sources:
- 33. (a) Published information • Technical directories, buyer indexes, U.S. government publications, reference books, and trade journals offer a wealth of information. • For instance, Standard and Poor’s Industry Surveys gives monthly information regarding key industries.
- 34. (b) Personal contacts • are excellent potential sources. Vendors, salespeople, professional acquaintances, customers, banks, government agencies, chambers of commerce, and even competitors are often willing to furnish needed information on the basis of a serious and tactful request.
- 35. Research and development (R&D) • If the information is not published and cannot be obtained by consulting someone, the only alternative may be to undertake R&D to generate it. Classic examples are developing a pilot plant and undertaking a test market program.
- 36. The Internet • can also be a source of cost-estimating data, though you should assure yourself that the information is from a reputable source. • The following Web sites may be useful to you both professionally and personally.