Crafting & Designing Programs by Practitioner's for a Safer Future
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The presentation by Ed Thomas emphasizes the need for collaborative and systematic approaches to mitigate disasters and enhance resilience against natural hazards, highlighting the increasing trend of flood and wind disasters. It critiques existing disaster relief systems and calls for improved standards in development and federal policies, advocating for proactive measures in floodplain management and community resilience. The document underscores the importance of effective messaging and engaging diverse audiences to promote disaster risk reduction strategies.
![Can Koontz be an Opportunity to Promote More
Resilient Communities?
The Supreme Court clearly agrees with the idea of
safe development based planning. Justice Alito
wrote in the majority opinion:
"Insisting that landowners internalize the negative
externalities of their conduct is a hallmark of
responsible land-use policy, and we have long
sustained such regulations against constitutional
attack. See, Village of Euclid v. Ambler Realty Co., 272 U. S. 365 (1926).
[emphasis added]
See, e.g., Turning Koontz into an Opportunity for More Resilient Communities
located on the ABA website at:
http://www.americanbar.org/content/dam/aba/administrative/state_local_government/land_use.authcheckdam.pdf
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Crafting & Designing Programs by Practitioner's for a Safer Future
- 1. Edward A. Thomas Esq. President Natural Hazard Mitigation Association (NHMA) July 23, 2015 Natural Hazard Mitigation Association International Hazard Mitigation Practitioners Symposium Crafting and Designing Programs By Practitioners for a Safer Future
- 2. On behalf of: Ed Thomas, President Natural Hazard Mitigation Association This presentation is not and cannot be technical engineering or legal advice, nor does this portion necessarily represent the views of anyone other the presenter. Howdy!
- 3. Approaching Our Problems Together As we think in a systems analysis manner to solve our serious problems we must including sea level rise and climate variability, uncertainty and climate change. We must stop making things worse! We need to work with many persons and groups to solve our serious disaster, water resources, and other related issues. Right now we have a system which rewards dangerous behavior. Yet, some places—like Tulsa, Oklahoma; Metropolitan Denver, through the work of the UDFCD; Charlotte- Mecklenburg County, North Carolina and others—are heroically overcoming obstacles and reducing losses. First some thoughts on disasters, Flood Insurance, and opportunities for change
- 4. Report on the 2013 Colorado Floods Really excellent analysis which clearly shows the advantages of the thoughtful, collaborative, systematic approach and of the UDFCD over the past 40+ years
- 5. Three Major Situations We See When Dealing With Development Issues in Hazardous Locations a) undeveloped property, which gives us the best chance to get things right; b) existing development which gives us challenging, but possible opportunities for preparedness, retrofitting, etc. to reduce the risks and consequences of natural events; c) redevelopment of property following a disaster using the “Living Mosaic" of available processes and programs.
- 6. • Dramatic Increases in Flood and Wind Disasters Trends in Damages Following Natural Events
- 7. 7 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Overall losses (in 2013 values)* Insured losses (in 2013 values)* Source: Munich Re. Losses adjusted to inflation based on country CPI. Overall and Insurance Losses in the US 1980 – 2013, US $ billions US$ bn 200 150 100 50
- 8. Flood losses increasing? This was not supposed to happen! The Flood Insurance Program was designed to reduce such losses. In 1976 a HUD sponsored economic analysis predicted that by the year 2000 or 2025 flood losses would begin to decline. I believe that the NFIP is the most cost effective program of Hazard Mitigation in the history of the Nation. Colorado has been a National Leader in reducing flood losses. Can the NFIP be improved? Is it now being improved? What happened? What can we do?
- 9. Disaster Risk Reduction and Flood Insurance FEMA has programs to help owners reduce their risk and save money on flood insurance Community-wide discounts through the Community Rating System (CRS) FEMA grant programs support rebuilding and relocating Use of higher deductibles to lower premium costs The smartest way to save is to build higher! Well, unless you have steep slopes as described in Brian Varella’s brilliant webinar for the Natural Floodplain Functions Alliance (NFFA): http://www.aswm.org/-nffa/1790-webinars
- 10. Excellent Webinar on Floodplain Management, Wildfires & Development in Mountain Areas Preventing Flood Disasters from Becoming Disastrous – Brian Varrella, Chair, Colorado Association of Stormwater and Floodplain Managers Located at: http://www.aswm.org/- nffa/1790-webinars
- 11. USACE Slide Courtesy of Pete Rabbon
- 12. Initial Risk No or Inadequate Warning/Evacuation Plan Sea Level Rise and Upstream Development Increases Flood Heights Lack of Awareness of Flood Hazard, Absence of Flood, Business Interruption, and DIC Insurance Critical Facilities Not Properly Protected From Flooding Increased Development: more people and more costly development Buildings & Infrastructure Not Properly Designed or Maintained Vastly Increased Residual Risk RISK Risk Increase Factors
- 13. Residential/ commercial 1 Improved building codes Oil and gas 6 Floating production systems 7 Replacing semi-subs with drill ships 8 Levees for refineries and petrochemical plants Infrastructure/ Environmental 3 Wetlands restoration3 2 Beach nourishment 4 Levee systems3 Electric utility 9 Improving resilience of electric utility systems 68 15 14 4 9 10 4 2 2 9 Benefit (loss averted)2 $ Billions Let’s Take a Few Minutes to Discuss Efficient Resilience Options 5 Improved standards for offshore platforms Total Average C/B ratio x 0.7 1.3 1.6 0.7 0.5 3.3 0.7 3.8 1.0 Cost1 $ Billions 64 17 6 1 6 15 5 6 11 10 1 Total capital and operational costs, discounted, across 20 years 2 Total loss averted, discounted, across 20 years 3 Included despite high C/B ratios due to strong co-benefits, risk aversion 13Many thanks to Cynthia McHale of CERES for this information But, what form of mitigation/adaptation is missing from list?
- 14. How Can We Accomplish Disaster Risk Reduction Many folks tell me that there are insufficient funds for Hazard Mitigation/Climate Adaptation/Disaster Risk Reduction Do you at least sort of agree with the old saying that “Well Begun is Half Done?” If so, is “Half-Done” very, very “Well Begun”?
- 15. 15 15 Demographic Trends: The Future Dr. Arthur “Chris” Nelson, FAICP at the Rocky Mountain Land Use Institute March 13, 2015 “More than half of the built environment of the United States we will see in 2050 does not exist in today.” Update on information contained in: Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 72, No. 4, Autumn 2006.
- 16. 16 16
- 17. We Will Have Development Demographic Pressures Will Drive Development Often in Areas Where there Are Considerable Natural Hazards: Tornadoes Floods Tsunamis Earthquakes We Need To Develop Safely and Affordably We Can Do It!
- 18. For Years You folks in Colorado Had A Great Record of Avoiding Disaster Losses
- 19. Let’s Look At Our System Of Disaster Relief From a Study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Flood insurance Payments Not Included
- 20. Assistance Not Including Flood Insurance Payments From a Study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
- 21. NY Federal Reserve Study: How Will We Pay For Superstorm Sandy? “With this expansion of federal disaster assistance, payments from private insurance companies and the federal government exceeded the total economic cost of events since Katrina by about 25 percent. This pattern suggests that an excess amount was distributed to state and local governments and affected individuals and businesses… Clearly, though, some businesses or individuals may not have been fully reimbursed for their out-of-pocket expenses, despite the excess payments in aggregate." http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2012/12/how-will-we-pay-for-superstorm-sandy.html#.U5sjaEDyTgA
- 22. A Quick Note On: Koontz v. St. Johns River Water Management District, No. 11-1447, (U.S. June 25, 2013) 22 This Supreme Court decision produces all sorts of fairly wild and alarmist articles quoting Attorneys who basically are predicting that the sky is falling the monetary requirement is "devastating“ to land use planning Other Attorneys view this case a major victory for property owners; and a defeat for government regulation Case is really an enormous opportunity to promote Resilience
- 23. Can Koontz be an Opportunity to Promote More Resilient Communities? The Supreme Court clearly agrees with the idea of safe development based planning. Justice Alito wrote in the majority opinion: "Insisting that landowners internalize the negative externalities of their conduct is a hallmark of responsible land-use policy, and we have long sustained such regulations against constitutional attack. See, Village of Euclid v. Ambler Realty Co., 272 U. S. 365 (1926). [emphasis added] See, e.g., Turning Koontz into an Opportunity for More Resilient Communities located on the ABA website at: http://www.americanbar.org/content/dam/aba/administrative/state_local_government/land_use.authcheckdam.pdf 23
- 24. Some win; some loose “In this day in age, with population densities rising, behaviors with harmful side effects have been growing more important. To foster continued prosperity, and even more drastically--the planet’s survival, requires clear thinking about how to mitigate the resulting damage” Robert H. Frank, Ronald Coase, a Pragmatic Voice for Government’s Role, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/15/business/ronald-co 24 Negative Externality is a Cost of a Transaction Not Paid By the Party Which Benefited
- 25. 25 When one group pays maintenance or replacement of something yet different person or group uses that same something, we often have problems Poorly designed/constructed development followed by disaster assistance is a classic example of externality Who Pays For Disaster Assistance? Who Benefits? Economics and Externality
- 26. 26 Who Pays For Disaster Assistance? Costs of flooding are usually largely borne by: a) The federal and sometimes the State taxpayer through IRS Casualty Losses, SBA loans, Disaster CDBG funds, and the whole panoply of Federal and private disaster relief described in the publication: Planning and Building Livable, Safe & Sustainable Communities: The Patchwork Quilt Approach b) By disaster victims themselves
- 27. 27 27 Cui Bono? (Who Benefits?)………. From Unwise or Improper Development In Areas Subject to Foreseeable Natural Hazards a) Developers? b) Communities? c) State Government? d) Mortgage companies? e) The occupants of floodplains? Possibly in the short-term, but usually NOT in the long-term
- 28. Our Challenge Disasters are bad, getting worse; will continue to get worse unless we change our development and redevelopment practices quite dramatically; There are multiple paths to reduce misery and suffering include: Architect and Engineer “Standard of Care” Insurance Industry efforts Government efforts California earthquake building codes, mitigation grants 28
- 29. 29 A Standard of Care Thought from the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) The first Fundamental Canon of the American Society of Civil Engineer's (ASCE) Code of Ethics states that: “Engineers shall hold paramount the safety, health, and welfare of the public….” “This canon must be the guiding principle for rebuilding the hurricane protection system in New Orleans. And it must be applied with equal rigor to every aspect of an engineer’s work – in New Orleans, in America, and throughout the world.”
- 30. Standard of Care for Planners “Planners are required to address social equity in their work as part of APA’s AICP Code of Ethics and Professional Conduct. As Hurricane Katrina and heat wave mortality figures teach us, lower- income and elderly populations are more at risk and will bear the brunt of many climate change impacts. As a consequence, planners need to ensure that the responses they develop to address the impacts of climate change take into account the varied needs of all sectors of the community, in order to equitably meet the significant challenges facing us.” (From “Policy Guide on Planning and Climate Change,” American Planning Association, April 11, 2011 emphasis added)
- 31. Suggested Changes to Federal Policies Reforming Federal Support for Risky Development, by David Conrad and Ed Thomas This paper suggests ways to reduce federal expenditures by approximately $40 billion over a 10 year period. Published by the Hamilton Project of the Brookings Institute in 2013 in 15 Ways to Rethink the Federal Budget Available online for your reading pleasure: http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/02/reform-federal- support-risky-development 31
- 32. Key Issues We are losing the battle for a safe and sustainable society in the United States and throughout the world Looking to the past for a vision of future risks, in an era of climate variability and change is even less likely to work than ever before 32
- 33. Looking Only at Past Events For Future Guidance Is Like: Driving Down the Highway at 80 Miles an Hour Steering By Looking in the Rear View Mirrors Only 33 Climate Adaptation permits, even requires us to look forward too! Unlikely to produce safe results!
- 34. Could Climate Change be to Blame for Recent Extreme Colorado Weather Events? Climate change can make heat waves more likely and more severe, according to a study in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society that found fewer clear links to extreme weather such as drought and storms. With Respect to Colorado Flooding: “(T)he chances of heavy rainfall like the deluge that caused flooding in Boulder, Colorado, last year, are probably lower because of human- caused weather changes. Link at: http://www.propertycasualty360.com/2014/09/30/could-climate-change-be-to-blame-for-extreme-weath? eNL=542b08b0140ba017428b4567&utm_source=PC360DailyeNews&utm_medium=eNL&utm_campaign=PC360_eNLs &_LID=118409543 34
- 35. How To Use Basic Principles To Address The Growing Toll Of Disasters? Business as usual is not working well enough Build bridges-links Make more friends and allies - many have very little knowledge or strong positive feelings about hazards We need to reach those we may not like: government, civil servants, bureaucrats, and a whole lot more Those who believe things we don’t believe! ENGAGE POTENTIAL ROADBLOCKS! 35
- 36. We Need to Reach Folks Who Normally Do Not Like Or Agree With Us Our message of better, safer design must be prepared for delivery to many audiences We need to know and understand what they care about, so we can develop a message rooted in economics & safety they will care about 36
- 37. So, How Do You Know An Audience? Listen Discussion Talk Learn Show you care about what concerns them, so they care about you and your message 37
- 38. For Years NHMA Has Been Saying We Need To Reach Others With Well Considered and Crafted Messages Now others are saying much the same thing! The World Bank: Stéphane Hallegate from the World Bank located in Washington, DC observed at a Conference I just attended that in order to make adaptation work in practice, we need an entirely new narrative - a new way of conceiving of adaptation: “Policymakers need another story than ‘We need to prevent a disaster!’ The real story of adaptation is that it leads to improving things. We have to help people recognize the benefits.” 38
- 39. Messaging Many folks who fervently believe Climate Change is hooey or a plot have other beliefs… E.g. belief in God, the United States, helping one’s neighbor, and the need to love and protect land & quality of life for future generations Belief in reducing the role of government in our lives So… How do we get a harm prevention message across to them? 39
- 40. Today We Will Also Discuss Implications of An Ongoing Success: Hide from the Wind Tornado Safe Rooms in Central Oklahoma Prepared by The Natural Hazard Mitigation Association for the Federal Emergency Management Agency This Report Funded in Part by the Federal Emergency Management Agency
- 41. Background: Mileti Research Dr. Dennis Mileti, Former Director of the Natural Hazards Center and Professor Emeritus at the University of Colorado at Boulder, has conducted detailed research: How to communicate the risks and consequences from disasters Change public perception and behavior so that the potential devastation caused by disasters can be mitigated
- 42. Are There Implications for the Safe Room Successes We Are Seeing on Risk Perception and Behavior for Other Hazards? In short: YES! NHMA believes that Dr. Mileti’s research findings are enormously supported by the analysis found in the NHMA report, Hide from the Wind: Tornado Safe Rooms in Central Oklahoma These methods can and should be applied widely to efforts promoting Disaster Risk Reduction from all natural hazards.
- 43. Summary of Mileti Research A. Be Clear B. Use Varied Sources C. Render Information Consistently, Through Multiple Outlets and Repeat It D. Tell People What to Do E. Support People in Their Search for More Information F. Use Words and Great Graphics G. Position Additional Information in the Community
- 44. Needed: A Common Message of Disaster Risk Reduction-Delivered By Multiple Folks We need to deliver knowledgeable messages of disaster vulnerability reduction, safety, and security, with regional and locally based mitigation suggestions, such as: build a safe rooms, and have higher wind load building standards in areas subject to high probability of high winds/tornadoes; carry out community and individual wildfire protection in areas subject to such risks; design and retrofit to reduce earthquake damage; build with higher freeboard (generally 4 feet or more) in areas subject to floods, understand the limitations of flood frequency projections based on the past, which include many unrealistic assumptions; recognize the need to protect water quality, and threatened and endangered species
- 45. Disaster Risk Reduction Ambassador Curriculum Emphasis is placed on the concept of disaster resilience, or “the ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from, and more successfully adapt to adverse events” (National Research Council 2012). The curriculum provides citizen leaders with best practices, the science underlying our understanding of natural hazards phenomena and a critical analysis of the policies, programs, and plans in place that are intended to help societies manage the effects of natural hazards and disasters, to include actions that increase disaster resilience. 45
- 46. Multihazards are addressed. The curriculum addresses the broad set of DRR natural hazards and risks, and best mitigation practices to improve economic, social, and environmental quality of life, and to protect public health and safety. Multidisciplinary. The curriculum provides an overview of many expert disciplines, to show connections gained through collaborative teamwork. Part of the larger national and international efforts to support Community Resilience. The curriculum recognizes the need to connect across the separate sectors of those engaged in the larger scope of climate science, emergency management, and comprehensive planning, to coordinate with others committed to build a more resilient future. The DRR Ambassador Curriculum will be CROSS-CUTTING
- 47. Key Themes We need to think in a systems analysis manner to solve the serious problems we face We need collaboration among diverse groups to solve serious issues surrounding the mounting toll of losses following foreseeable natural events We must develop a system that rewards resilient and safe behavior; and discourages unsafe development
- 48. Resilience and Disaster Risk Reduction Think of the arrows being shot at the target as development resources Resilience & Climate Adaptation are a huge concepts They are also moving targets as the climate varies We at NHMA focus in on the Disaster Risk Reduction Portion of Climate Adaptation and Resilience
- 49. Brilliant Publications Designed to Promote True Resilience Including Disaster Risk Reduction NAACP Publication: Equity in Building Resilience in Adaptation Planning
- 50. Summary Fundamentally our society must choose either: Better standards to protect resources and people or Standards which inevitably will result in destruction and litigation We Need To Make Allies and Friends To Get Our Message Across FIND THE COMMON VALUES AND START THERE All of us can and should play a key role in planning a safe and sustainable future 50
- 51. Final Thought Courtesy of Ben Franklin: All of US Who Care About a Safer, Better Future Need To Work Together Library of Congress
- 52. Who Has to Unite? What do you folks think?
- 53. 53 Questions and Answers At the Conclusion of the Panel, Please Thank You
- 54. Edward A. Thomas Esq. President Natural Hazard Mitigation Association (NHMA) July 23, 2015 Natural Hazard Mitigation Association International Hazard Mitigation Practitioners Symposium Crafting and Designing Programs By Practitioners for a Safer Future
Editor's Notes
- #3: We are Pro-Good, Thoughtful Development Which Does Not Harm People and Property ET: Do we need to make the last point? MM: No, but wouldn’t hurt to make the point verbally in your presentation: “Our presentations are based on general principles of law, engineering, policy and emergency management” MM: Use this slide to introduce yourself. If more than one presenter, add a slide for each and put the “notice on the last slide.”
- #4: Note FEMA sponsorship and financial help etc ET: list up for review when we talk
- #7: Dramatic increases in Wind, Flood, Earthquake, and Wildfire losses But not so for geophysical events. Why?
- #9: If time tell story of South Florida Building codes and Andrew. What happened clean water act.. demographics, people living where they want [tell ET & Kathy Lee in floodplain story if time
- #10: (MAKE THIS INTERACTIVE – ask how many present know of these programs, are their clients aware of them?) CRS discounts are not affected by BW-12. If your community participates in the CRS program, savings may apply. Grant programs may also be available to support rebuilding or relocating – depending on the State’s priorities for use of grant funding. Higher deductibles can also lower premium costs, however, policyholders will be financially responsible for that expense at the time of loss. It is important that you maintain documentation in your files of your policyholder’s request.
- #13: Note: CLICK to advance bullets and arrows
- #16: *Among the demographic projections he makes:1) the US will be the fastest growing Nation in the world, except India only, (in sheer numbers not percentage) over the next 30 or so years. Our next 100 million population should come in about 20 years. It took 37 years to get from US 200 million to the new total of 300 million. To be clear, he says we will be growing in sheer numbers faster than China or Indonesia.2) our need for housing and commercial space is going to change dramatically by type-from low % of lot coverage to high % coverage. The implications of this are huge from a floodplain management perspective: building construction that will have higher value per acre; including construction which will generally require closed pipe stormwater flow, as well as excellent engineering and planning for stormwater and floodplain management purposes. In general this new wave of development even less forgiving of ignoring natural processes than out current construction.3) other observations: a) housing demand will be for more units per acre-townhouse, condo, shopping malls that go from .2 usable space per acre ratio to somewhere between 1.6 and 2.0 ratio of usable space per occupied acre. (high value-tight spaces-high runoff-low storage w/o NAI planning;b) he says that housing built post WWII should have a life expectancy of around 150 years;c) shopping malls with traditional parking lots have a life expectancy of about 12-20 years; and will be likely redeveloped into much higher density and value malls;d) demand for homes on large lots (greater than 7,000 sq. ft.) will drop to the point that these homes may be white elephants;e) demand for condos, single family housing will soar.4) Dr. Nelson did not mention this, but it is also worth noting that much of this rapid development and re-development will take place in the Arid West, and other areas which will have a growing scarcity of potable water.He has spoken about this at the EPA Large Production Builders Conference, and written about it in the APA Magazine. A the reference for his article for APA is noted on the slide.
- #27: http://stormsmart.org/uploads/patchwork-quilt/patchwork_quilt.pdf
- #28: Cui bono ("To whose benefit?", literally "[being] good for whom?") is a Latin adage that is used either to suggest a hidden motive or to indicate that the party responsible for a thing may not be who it appears at first to be. With respect to motive, a public works project which is purported to benefit the city may have been initiated rather to benefit a favored campaign contributor with a lucrative contract. Commonly the phrase is used to suggest that the person or people guilty of committing a crime may be found among those who have something to gain, chiefly with an eye toward financial gain. The party that benefits may not always be obvious or may have successfully diverted attention to a scapegoat, for example.
- #30: This quote if from A Statement by the American Society of Civil Engineers Hurricane Katrina External Review Panel issued late August 2006 ASCE, working in partnership with the USACE and other engineering organizations should reinforce the need to place the safety, health, and welfare of the public first, and should communicate that public safety must always take precedence.
- #32: *
- #48: Note FEMA sponsorship and financial help et cetera. ET: list up for review when we talk * We need to think in a systems analysis manner to solve our serious problems - including sea level rise and climate variability, uncertainty and climate change. We must stop making things worse! We need to work with many persons and groups to solve our serious disaster, water resources, and other related issues. Right now we have a system which rewards dangerous behavior. Yet, some places—like Tulsa, Metropolitan Denver, Charlotte Mecklenburg County and others—are heroically overcoming obstacles and reducing losses. Let us show you four examples of NHMA local action initiatives But first some thoughts on flood and wind losses We will also answer the questions you asked!