Critical Thinking notes.pdf is a guide for you in making better decisions.
- 1. CRITICAL THINKING 1 CRITICAL THINKING Biases and fallacies that stump our decision making and thinking are cognitive illusions. They fool our brains, make us misjudge and which leads us into taking wrong decisions. There are 2 systems of thinking viz i) Reasoning/Rational/Intuitive/Automatic ii) Emotional/Reflective(Refer the photos taken for more details) When you learn something new, it starts off as a system 2 activity, then as you get more and more familiar with that activity, and become better and better at it…it slowly moves to system 1. Years of experience and practice develops system 1 skills. Mental, physical or emotional effort can physically exhaust you ; which draw on a common pool of energy. If that pool is depleted, then it becomes harder to put more effort(called as “ego depletion”) Self - control is a system 2 activity which requires a lot of effort, therefore after an exhausting day of work(where you get drained in your system 2), you are more likely to eat junk food at night because the common pool of energy has been depleted and now not much is left for your self control. No motivation is left for complex tasks. If you replenish this energy with food and rest, then you can indulge in effort again. Cognitive ease is a state where there is no stress at all, where you are familiar, routine and relaxed and system 1 is fully in command and which is great for intuition and creativity(new ideas). Don’t make critical decisions when you’re exhausted, make decisions when you are calm plus rested plus well - fed. Cognitive biases are systematic patterns of deviation from rationality in judgement. We all believe that we are better, more rational, and less biased than others. Do not ignore feedback from peers and experts. Remain flexible. Debiasing are the techniques and strategies used to minimize and mitigate the effects of biases in our decision making. INTROSPECTIVE ILLUSION : Thinking wrongly that you are fully aware of whatever is going on inside your head. NAIVE REALISM : When you believe that “My perception is the true reality!” ….. and those who disagree or differ, don’t know better. I am more smart/knowledgeable than them and less biased than others. INTROSPECTIVE ILLUSION and NAIVE REALISM are primarily responsible for bias blind spot(blindness to our own limitations and biases) DUNNING KRUGER EFFECT : People with low ability at a task are unaware of it and actually think that they are good at it. It’s hard to be objective, and accept our own limitations and biases. Heuristics are mental shortcuts that help people make quick decisions, commonly used to simplify problems and avoid cognitive overload. We use vivid, easy to recall memories to judge our colleagues, an individual who made significant contributions to highly visible project, or received an award in a town hall will be well remembered, others less sensational, less striking, visible good performance and hard work but more consistent and equally good performances will not be. (ignored) All decisions under risk and uncertainty are prone to this bias. Vendors, products etc may be chosen based on familiarity or striking advertisements and not on merit, not the most deserving and not the best. STATUS QUO BIAS : When we consider any change, the disadvantages loom much larger than any advantages/benefits thus resulting in our subconscious favoring the status quo instead of change.(which is backed
- 2. CRITICAL THINKING 2 by research) even when we are given a lot of choices. This bias is used by businesses to retain and attract customers. We are naturally risk averse, the reason being it is simpler and easier to continue with status quo. CONFIRMATION BIAS : You only notice and consider evidence that confirms/supports your opinion, beliefs and views. You tend to overlook and undervalue the evidence that does not support your pre - existing opinions and beliefs. Seeing what you want to see and hearing what you want to hear. This happens subconsciously which is not deliberately done by you. You remember only confirming instances or evidence, you search for only confirming data confirming your judgement, you interpret data, evidence and examples in such a way so as to suit your existing opinions. Your mind becomes a watertight chamber with no contradicting data or evidence ever being able to get in and you continue to live in your same bubble of self - confirmation. LOSS AVERSION : Fear of losing what you already have is much more than the excitement of gaining something new and because we value it, we dread losing it even more. People prefer sure gains to probable gains, probable losses to sure losses. Frame and reframe your choices and options in different ways like positively/negatively/as a loss or a gain/neutrally etc before deciding, that will minimise the impact of this bias. HALO EFFECT : When the first impression of the person becomes your overall impression and influences all future judgements and opinions even about the aspects of the person, you have never observed or have no evidence about.(Works both ways as in positive and negative) favoring people who look more attractive while evaluating their essays. You can use halo effect to your advantage as in candidates who come across as confident, warm and friendly are likely to be judged good and competent before interviewer has done any evaluation.(and their mistakes and misses might get overlooked) PRIMING : Some event or trigger based on past experience/good words subconsciously affects your decision making in the future. It suggests that concepts are stored as a bunch of associations in our mind and may therefore be activated together, triggering other related concepts, it can also be used to manipulate people Money makes people selfish and individualistic and are less likely to cooperate or help others and a reluctance to be involved with others either to help them or to depend on them. Living in a culture that constantly bombards us with reminders of money, consumerism, wealth and prosperity may shape our behavior and our attitudes in ways that we are not even fully aware of and in ways that are not good or ethical. ANCHORING : Your judgement, decision or response is anchored to the first piece of information that you come across or remember. Like if you throw a random number salary for promotion to your boss, it can affect them. De biasing : Self - anchor yourself beforehand with suitable or non - random anchors. Deliberately reject the very first decision or choice made and look for other options, gather more information so that you don’t need to rely on the automatic anchors. fundamental attribution error - Google Search SPOTLIGHT EFFECT : The tendency to believe that other people are watching you, noticing you, admiring you or laughing at you and judging you much more than they actually really are. You are the center of your own world. We like to think that we are as important to other people to. In reality, everyone is the center of their own worlds. This tendency is especially prominent when one does something atypical or embarrassing. Others are preoccupied with their own mistakes and embarrassments(like when we get a new haircut or wear something we don’t usually wear or say something stupid or silly)….the solution trick is to not over - react to anything that happens because the spotlight is not on you. Don’t let it ruin your day or life/big decisions. Don’t let the imagined judgments make you give up on something even before you started. Optimism Bias : While it is a good thing to be optimistic, it is not wise to be irrationally so. We can remain optimistic while we put a Plan B in place to be prepared for come what may. Since we know we have the tendency to be
- 3. CRITICAL THINKING 3 irrationally optimistic, so it’s important to hedge our bets, and put buffers and safety mechanisms in place, so we don’t crash too badly when things don’t go as planned. Planning bias : They underestimate task complexity and risks and overestimate their own skills, capability and efficiency. Our system 1 makes us believe sincerely that this time the rules and statistics won’t apply to us. All plans, projects and programs would benefit from a general assumption that all self - estimates are optimistic and biased, and outside reviews as well as buffers and fallback plans need to be included for all of them because they are essential. Fallback plans are alternative strategies or courses of action prepared in advance to be implemented if the primary plan fails or encounters significant obstacles. In project management, they serve as contingency measures to mitigate risks and ensure project continuity despite unforeseen challenges. Buffers, in the context of project management, are additional time or resources added to a plan to account for potential delays, uncertainties, or unexpected issues. They serve as a safety margin to help ensure project deadlines and goals are met despite unforeseen challenges. Outside reviews refer to evaluations or assessments conducted by independent parties not directly involved in a project or plan. They provide an objective perspective to identify potential biases, oversights, or areas for improvement, helping to enhance the overall quality and feasibility of the plan. Human thinking and cognition is imperfect, so we all are prone to several systematic and predictable errors of judgement and decision making. Rationality is adopting appropriate goals and taking appropriate actions to reach those goals and holding beliefs that are commensurate with logic and available evidence, and being able to revise our beliefs and judgements with fresh data, logic and evidence. But, under uncertainty and imperfect information, is when we need the best decisions. A rigorous, objective and de - biased decision making process was far more important for good quality decisions(which can weed out bad data and analysis), than complicated and advanced data analysis. Slow down and think, reject those quick and easy answers that pop in your head quickly and look for others, list down the pros and cons…the data and evidence you have…make it an elaborate process…analyze the data deliberately and encourage cum involve your system 2, getting worried and anxious is also a good way to tap into system 2. Never make big decisions when you’re tired and exhausted after heavy physical, mental or emotional effort. DE - BIASING TECHNIQUES : Checklists, protocols and SOP’s are good ways to reduce almost all kinds of bias by standardizing what’s done…the more detailed the instructions and steps are, the less room there is for deviation, error and bias….the trick is to ensure compliance. Use an external reviewer to evaluate your work. BLINDING : Blind yourself to those aspects of the situation, or person that are likely to bias you. Diverse groups make better decisions than non - diverse ones. A study found that each dimension of diversity added a significant improvement( from 57% to 87%) to the decision making quality in business decisions and innovation. Dimension in terms of gender, age, ethnic(the presence of people from different cultural and ethnic backgrounds within a single area), and geographic diversity. Education, industry experience have been shown to be important too, in other research. ENCOURAGE DISSENT : Have people to write their suggestions or criticisms or feedback on a slip of paper anonymously or submit online through a software. Using AI or ML ensures a lot less bias comes into play. Imagine that the decision has failed, write down the top 5 - 10 reasons why and how this could have happened. (everyone has to do this)
- 4. CRITICAL THINKING 4 Never discourage feedback and inputs from a Red team or Devil’s advocate.(Red team, in a strategic context, often refers to a group designed to challenge an organization to improve its effectiveness. Think of them as the friendly adversaries who test your defenses, strategies, or ideas by thinking like the opposition. They're crucial for identifying weaknesses and ensuring you're well-prepared for real-world challenges.) Listen to it and process it with an open mind. A fallacy is a reasoning mistake, when flawed logic is used to support a particular point of view, in an argument. A red herring fallacy is a distraction. It’s when someone introduces an irrelevant topic or detail to divert attention from the main issue. It’s like when you’re having a serious discussion about climate change, and someone suddenly brings up the flavor of ice cream they had last night. Totally off-topic and meant to throw you off course.(Fear mongering/exaggeration) Validity of an argument or belief should not depend on the number of people following it, it has to depend only on the merits of the argument or belief. Beware of the many many ways, people can distort, exaggerate and plain lie about your argument positions in order to make them seem ridiculous and without value. A strawman fallacy is when someone misrepresents or oversimplifies another person's argument to make it easier to attack or refute. Instead of addressing the actual argument, they create a "strawman" version of it that's easier to knock down. It's like twisting someone's words to argue against a point they never actually made. A dilemma fallacy, also known as a false dilemma, occurs when someone presents a situation as having only two alte Ensure you are not committing to them or listening to them(logical fallacies), be wary of the pitfalls, focus on the actual content of the argument, does it make sense, is there evidence or logic to support it. CHECKLIST FOR DECISION MAKING FOR BIG DECISIONS : STEP 1 : Have you identified all possible alternatives/options/solutions to your decision ? (Brainstorm sessions), evaluate all of them and rule out which are not practical or feasible. STEP 2 : What are the personal factors at play ? Likes and dislikes, ego clashes etc…..decision has to be on the merits and demerits of the decision alternatives alone.(Avoid biases and fallacies) STEP 3 : Are there any conflict of interest ? (Are any of the choices personally beneficial to one or more of the stakeholders) STEP 4 : What data and evidence is being used to decide ? STEP 5 : Has effective de - biasing been done ? (Actively encourage dissent, and criticism and use that feedback to de - risk and re - evaluate decision alternatives ! ) The 10-10-10 rule, created by Suzy Welch, helps with decision-making. It involves thinking about how a decision will affect you in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years. It forces you to consider the immediate, short-term, and long-term consequences, giving you a clearer perspective on the impact of your choices. Pretty handy way to look at things, right? “Sleep on it” or “slow down” before any important or big decision. A well - rested/slept brain is well - equipped for the complex cognitive tasks involved in decision - making. In simple terms, noise is the unwanted variability in human judgments. Imagine different people giving different answers to the same question, even when they have the same information. It's like if you asked five people to guess the weight of a watermelon and got five different answers. Noise makes decisions inconsistent and less reliable and less accurate, unfair and untrustworthy. A noise audit is a systematic process used to identify and measure the amount of noise, or unexplained variability in decision making within an organization. STEPS TO DO IT : DEFINE THE SCOPE OF AUDIT COLLECT DATA IDENTIFY KEY DECISION MAKERS
- 5. CRITICAL THINKING 5 CREATE AND PRESENT IDENTICAL CASE STUDIES TO DIFFERENT DECISION MAKERS ANALYZE VARIABILITY MEASURE NOISE(STATISTICAL ANALYSIS) IDENTIFY CAUSES AND DEVELOP SOLUTIONS TECHNIQUES TO DEAL WITH NOISE : 1. CHECKLIST/PROTOCOLS/GUIDELINES/SOP’S 2. TRAINING/DEVELOPMENT/BUILDING EXPERTISE THROUGH LEARNING/PRACTICE/FEEDBACK PROBLEM SOLVING : Go with your instincts. You can solve it by trial and error. Use a systematic, step - by step, comprehensive and thorough process like checklists. Functional fixedness bias is when people get stuck seeing objects or tools only in their usual role, and can’t see other uses for them. For example, seeing a paperclip only as something to hold papers together, not as a makeshift tool for unlocking a door. It limits creativity and problem-solving by sticking to familiar patterns. Ever caught yourself in a “fixed” way of thinking? Taking a break from actively thinking about the problem will lead to better and more creative solutions. A relaxed positive state of mind enhances creativity and helps you think more clearly and rationally. Sleep well.