CSIS Report Preparing for the 2014 QDR

a report of the csis
international security
program

Preparing for the 2014
Quadrennial Defense Review
conference proceedings, presentations, and key takeaways

March 2013 Project Director Author
Clark Murdock Kelley Sayler

CHARTING
our future

A REPORT OF THE CSIS
INTERNATIONAL SECURITY
PROGRAM

Preparing for the 2014
Quadrennial Defense Review
CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS, PRESENTATIONS, AND KEY TAKEAWAYS

Project Director
Clark A. Murdock

Author
Kelley Sayler

March 2013

About CSIS – 50th Anniversary Year

For 50 years, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has developed practical
solutions to the world’s greatest challenges. As we celebrate this milestone, CSIS scholars continue to
provide strategic insights and bipartisan policy solutions to help decisionmakers chart a course toward a
better world.

CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, D.C. The Center’s 220
full-time staff and large network of affiliated scholars conduct research and analysis and develop policy
initiatives that look to the future and anticipate change.

Founded at the height of the Cold War by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS was
dedicated to finding ways to sustain American prominence and prosperity as a force for good in the
world. Since 1962, CSIS has become one of the world’s preeminent international policy institutions
focused on defense and security; regional stability; and transnational challenges ranging from energy
and climate to global development and economic integration.

Former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn has chaired the CSIS Board of Trustees since 1999. Former
deputy secretary of defense John J. Hamre became the Center’s president and chief executive officer in
April 2000.

CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be
understood to be solely those of the author(s).

Cover images: U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Jon Heinrich,
http://www.defense.gov/dodcmsshare/homepagephoto/2013-02/hires_130128-A-ZQ422-0134c.jpg
(top); U.S. Navy photo by Photographer's Mate 3rd Class Heather Hess,
http://www.navy.mil/view_image.asp?id=184 (bottom left); U.S. Air Force photo by Master Sgt. Sean
Mitchell, 210th Rescue Squadron, Alaska Air National Guard
http://www.af.mil/shared/media/photodb/photos/2013/01/110212-F-8095M-831.jpg (bottom right).

Center for Strategic and International Studies
1800 K Street, NW, Washington, DC 20006
Tel: (202)887-0200|Fax: (202)775-3199|Web: www.csis.org

This report is dedicated to the memory of Guy Ben-Ari, a man whose kindness, sharp intellect, good
humor, and infectious love of “Pakistani Buffet” touched many of us at CSIS. He will be greatly missed.

Table of Contents

Overview ................................................................................................................................................... 2
Areas of General Agreement .................................................................................................................... 3
Areas of Considerable Agreement ............................................................................................................ 9
Areas of Sharp Disagreement ................................................................................................................. 12
Specific Recommendations ..................................................................................................................... 14
Appendix A: Conference Agenda ........................................................................................................... 16
Appendix B: About the Panelists and Keynote Speaker......................................................................... 19
Appendix C: Panelist Presentations ....................................................................................................... 27
Panel 1: Lessons Learned from the 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance and Past Quadrennial Defense
Reviews ................................................................................................................................................... 27
Panel 2: Unique Challenges Facing DOD under Budgetary Pressures .................................................... 36
Keynote Address...................................................................................................................................... 48
Panel 3: The Future International Security Environment ....................................................................... 50
Panel 4: Considerations for the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review ...................................................... 61
Appendix D: List of Participants ............................................................................................................. 70

Overview
Every four years, the Secretary of Defense is required by Title 10 of the United States Code to undertake
a review of U.S. defense strategy, force structure, budget plans, and associated policies in what is known
as the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). As this process begins for the 2014 QDR, defense planners
will need to consider the prioritization of U.S. defense objectives, the security environment in which
decisions about U.S. defense strategy and force structure will be made, and the military capabilities and
capacities (and ways of employing them) that could meet the demands of this environment.

To facilitate this process, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), with support from the
Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, hosted a one-day conference1 on January 25, 2013
that convened a diverse group of expert panelists and participants. This conference, Preparing for the
2014 Quadrennial Defense Review, included an opening panel that identified lessons learned from past
QDRs and from the 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance (DSG) and three subsequent panels that
highlighted considerations for the 2014 QDR, including security, fiscal, and strategic considerations. In
addition, Stephen J. Hadley drew upon his experience as both former National Security Adviser and co-
chair (with former Secretary of Defense William Perry) of the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review
Independent Panel to deliver the keynote address (see Appendix A for agenda and Appendix B for
biographies of panelists and keynote speaker).

In conducting this conference, CSIS sought to structure a discussion that would produce specific
recommendations for conducting the 2014 QDR. Dr. Clark A. Murdock, senior adviser and director of
the CSIS Defense and National Security Group, served as the facilitator for the entirety of the conference
in order to ensure focus and consistency across panels. Panelists were also asked to submit written
statements or briefs in advance of the conference to enable Dr. Murdock to prepare targeted questions
– directed to both individual panelists and the panel as a whole – intended to clarify points of ambiguity
and to highlight areas of consensus and disagreement (see Appendix C for written statements, briefs,
and summaries). Like the panelists, participants represented a range of backgrounds and organizations,
including government, industry, and media (see Appendix D for list of participants).

To accentuate key takeaways, the analysis of the conference proceedings will be organized as follows:

• Areas of general agreement:

o Judgments that at least three panelists expressed support for and that no panelist
explicitly disagreed with.

• Areas of considerable agreement:

o Judgments that at least two panelists expressed support for and that no panelist
explicitly disagreed with; or judgments that more than two panelists expressed support
for and from which there was only limited dissent (e.g. partial disagreement or confined
to a single panelist).

1
Transcripts – prepared by Federal News Service – and full audio of the conference are available at
http://csis.org/event/preparing-2014-quadrennial-defense-review. Video of the keynote address is also available.

Preparing for the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review
Conference Proceedings, Presentations, and Key Takeaways
2

• Areas of sharp disagreement:

o Judgments on which the panelists were clearly divided, with substantial numbers taking
opposing views.

• Specific panelist recommendations:

o Specific recommendations made by at least one of the panelists.

Areas of General Agreement

• The 2014 QDR will be conducted against a backdrop of unprecedented fiscal uncertainty.

“Never before have there been as many wildcards out there going into a potential QDR and a new
secretary of defense’s tenure than there are right now,” Rudy deLeon observed. With sequestration as
yet unresolved and a federal budget that is operating under a continuing resolution set to expire on
March 27, the panelists agreed that the size of the defense budget over the next ten years is far from
certain.2 Already, the Department of Defense (DoD) has absorbed the $487B in cuts over FY2012-2021
that were imposed by the Budget Control Act (BCA) of 2011. DoD could be forced to accept anywhere
from $100B – proposed as part of President Obama’s debt negotiation offer to congressional
Republicans3 and considered a best case scenario – to as much as $500B in additional cuts. Thus, while
there is no escaping Gordon Adams' flat assertion that "we are in a defense drawdown," estimates of
the level of this drawdown vary widely and are unlikely to be specified for some time to come. There
was broad recognition among the panelists that these fiscal constraints and uncertainties would require
difficult choices and place genuine budgetary constraints on the QDR’s formulation of defense strategy,
though there was disagreement as to whether or not these constraints were desirable.

• High-level participation and buy-in are critical to successfully establish priorities within the QDR
process and to manage competing bureaucratic interests.

Numerous panelists noted the value of strong leadership guiding the QDR process. For example, Elaine
Bunn argued that the involvement of the Secretary of Defense (SecDef) should be complemented with a
high-level, day-to-day working group that holds the authority to assess conflicting bureaucratic goals
and objectives and to determine the agenda for the QDR. In addition, this high-level buy-in energizes
lower-level planners and eases the difficulty of undertaking what is often a lengthy and complex
process. Similarly, Jim Thomas advocated direct involvement by the SecDef, whose priorities should
drive the QDR process, and a high-level action officer (e.g., the deputy SecDef or vice chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff) charged with executing the Secretary’s priorities.

2
Characterizations of the fiscal climate reflect discussion at the January 25 conference, which occurred prior to the
enactment of sequestration.
3
Sam Stein, “Obama Makes Third Fiscal Cliff Offer,” Huffington Post, December 17, 2012,
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/12/17/obama-fiscal-cliff-offer_n_2319075.html.

3

Reflecting on the 1993 Bottom-up Review, Rudy deLeon noted that “the bulk of the work was done by
the Secretary of the Defense, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and the Chiefs themselves…One of the
most satisfying things about the exercise…was that the Joint Chiefs, the Chiefs of the services, really
became the action officers for the strategic review and the implementation.” Such buy-in from the
chiefs will also be critical to advancing the objectives of the 2014 QDR.

• In order to achieve a balance between inclusivity and exclusivity in the analytic process, the QDR
should include both “cabal and committee” components.

As Elaine Bunn observed, there are tradeoffs between the “cabal vs. committee” approaches: the
former focuses discussion, streamlines the decisionmaking process, and contributes to high-level buy-in,
while the latter “cultivat[es] communities of interest” and promotes buy-in at the lower levels. In
addition, the transparency associated with greater inclusivity encourages the open deliberation that
“can mitigate…frictions when you’re trying to institute changes and impact other organizations’ equities
and influence.” But it also has drawbacks, she noted. As a wider array of actors is involved in earlier
stages of the process, there is increased risk that priorities and analysis will be challenged before they
are fully formulated, thereby undercutting the ultimate objective of the process. Likewise, Shawn
Brimley called for a comprehensive approach that would incorporate the feedback of a larger group into
a robust smaller group, all to be conducted in parallel with a senior red team effort.

Echoing these judgments, Jim Thomas stated that “the exquisite combination” of widespread buy-in and
decisionmaking by small groups will be crucial to the success of the next QDR, but particularly
emphasized the value of high-level, authoritative ownership in advancing the discussion. “I don’t think
you’re going to get the big idea out of the bureaucratic process,” he explained. “It’s probably going to
come from a small cabal if it’s going to be successful.” Rudy deLeon agreed, noting the importance of
inclusivity but underscoring the necessity of a small, high-level (and likely service-driven) decisionmaking
body for effectively conducting the QDR.

In general, Panel 1 supported the approach of the 2010 QDR, which sought to balance exclusivity and
inclusivity and achieve both high-level and low-level buy-in.

• Red teams can provide a valuable contribution to the QDR process.

Jim Thomas, Shawn Brimley, and Elaine Bunn all supported the formation of a senior red team. As Mr.
Thomas observed, the 2006 QDR red team provided a source of creativity as well as a vehicle for
circumventing the “bureaucracy lockdown” and for driving programmatic change. The expansion of SOF
and electronic warfare, for example, stemmed from red team deliberations, he said. In addition, red
teams could sharpen strategic communications and enhance high-level buy-in.

• The dual role of the QDR to provide guidance for internal DoD planning as well as communicate
U.S. defense policy and strategy to a diverse set of external audiences (Congress, U.S. citizens,
international allies, partners, adversaries, and private industry) forces a tradeoff between
capturing complexity and preserving clarity. "Bumper sticker" formulations may be essential for
successful messaging, but rarely make for good internal guidance.

4

Jim Thomas, Shawn Brimley, and Elaine Bunn drew attention to the difficulty of using the QDR to
communicate complex concepts – force planning constructs and scenarios, in particular – to a wide
range of audiences. “QDRs are very problematic,” Mr. Brimley noted, because “you’re trying to create
an enterprise-wide, long-term strategy document that can drive change in the Department [while
simultaneously] trying to create a…critical public relations document and also a strategic
communications document to influence our core allies and partners and adversaries around the world.”
Accomplishing all of these objectives in a single document may not be possible, he said.

To obviate this, Mr. Brimley recommended introducing a classified annex into the QDR that would more
specifically and thoroughly explain force planning scenarios and provide internal force planning
guidance.

• The background experiences of the QDR teams in 2010 and 2014 are unique, albeit in opposite
ways.

In 2010, a strong holdover Secretary of Defense from the George W. Bush Administration, Robert Gates,
led President Barack Obama’s new defense team in conducting the QDR. Due to his service in the
previous administration, Gates brought established strategies, priorities, and processes to bear upon the
QDR process, resulting in what Jim Thomas termed “the most significant programmatic changes…in the
post-Cold War era.”

In the 2014 QDR process, a new Secretary of Defense will join an experienced defense team with
extensive experience, gained from formulating both the 2010 QDR and the 2012 DSG. “This time,”
Elaine Bunn argued, “the issue will be how to ensure that Senator Hagel, if indeed he’s confirmed, buys
in and owns the process…at the same time, taking advantage of the experienced voices that have been
through this before.”

• The 2014 QDR should utilize the 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance as a point of departure; it
should not undertake a comprehensive reassessment of defense priorities or the strategic
landscape.

Several panelists agreed that the 2012 DSG should be used as a departure point for the 2014 QDR, as it
represented a presidentially-endorsed, mid-term defense review that accounted for both the recent
developments in the security environment (e.g., Arab Spring, reductions in U.S. Armed Forces in
Afghanistan) and the new budgetary realities resulting from the $487 billion in spending cuts mandated
by the Budget Control Act of 2011.

Shawn Brimley recommended using the 2012 DSG as a basis for analysis in the 2014 QDR. To this end,
Mr. Brimley said that defense planners should consider how the DSG could be implemented in an
environment that is even more fiscally constrained than was originally planned for and subsequently
determine whether or not the DSG should be amended.

Jim Thomas also voiced support for the strategic framework outlined in the DSG and argued that the
2014 QDR should be used as an alignment process to bridge what he views as a disconnect between the
guidance and the current program. “I think the strategic vector is right,” he explained, “but the program
isn’t there and so how we bring that into alignment is going to be the key.”

5

• DoD’s internal cost growth is hollowing out the defense budget from within and must be
addressed by the 2014 QDR.

There was consensus on Panel 2 that cost growth within the Department of Defense – and particularly in
the military personnel (MILPERS), operations and maintenance (O&M), and acquisitions accounts – is a
growing problem that must be managed.

Gordon Adams drew attention to cost growth within the MILPERS account with a slide illustrating
MILPERS budget authority relative to active-duty end strength (see Slide 1), while Todd Harrison
demonstrated growth in the broader personnel account (MILPERS plus the Defense Health Care
program) by charting the rise in cost per active-duty service member as a percentage of the budget (see
Slide 2).

Slide 1

6

Rise in Cost per Active Duty Service Member

FY13 Budget Request (w/ Reforms): 0.3%

Real Annual Rate of Growth
(FY01-FY12): 4.2%

Real Annual Rate of Growth (FY84-FY12): 2.6%

Mr. Harrison noted the gravity of this trend: “…If we continued allowing our personnel costs to grow at
that same rate, 4.2 percent, like they did over the past decade, by the year 2039, those personnel costs
would consume the entire defense budget.” In the absence of reform, this growth will require a choice
between reducing end strength (maintaining MILPERS’ FY2013 budget share – 34% – would require an
82,000 reduction in end strength) and allowing MILPERS’ budget share to grow at the expense of other
accounts.

Mr. Harrison then noted that there has also been substantial growth in O&M costs per active-duty
service member as a percentage of the budget (see Slide 3), which will similarly present a choice
between reducing end strength (maintaining O&M’s FY2013 budget share – 32% – would require about
a 300,000 reduction in end strength, Mr. Harrison estimated) and allowing O&M to consume a greater
share of the budget.

7

O&M Costs per Active Duty Service Member
(FY12-FY17): 1.9%

(FY01-FY12): 2.7%

Assuming trends in these accounts continue, and failing congressional action to rein in cost growth,
“personnel and O&M costs are going to consume up to 80 percent of the budget by FY ’21,” he said.

The panelists agreed that this problem is compounded by the cost growth in acquisitions, with several
specifically citing the F-35 program as exemplary of increasing concerns about affordability (see Slide 4
for Peter Singer’s cost comparison of Major Defense Acquisition Programs).

Slide 4

8

Furthermore, Rudy deLeon partially attributed what he termed the “R&D hole,” in which there are
numerous programs in the R&D cycle but few moving to full-rate production, to the issue of
affordability. As a corrective, he advocated a review of the requirements generation process and a focus
on producing capabilities that would actively modernize the force.

• The All-Volunteer Force (AVF) is a core foundation of national security that must be sustained.

While acknowledging the challenges posed by the growth in personnel costs, the panelists agreed that
the AVF remains a strategic pillar. As Rudy deLeon noted, “there is not a senior military leader, nor a
senior enlisted leader who would say they would prefer an alternative to the All-Volunteer Force. We
need to look at how we are going to sustain it as an enterprise for the long term.”

• The inclusion of nuclear, missile defense, cyber, and space forces in the 2014 QDR would be a
beneficial development.

The 2014 QDR could mark the first time that nuclear, missile defense, cyber, and space issues will be
included in a QDR, as – in contrast to previous QDRs – there is no congressional mandate requiring them
to be addressed in separate, self-contained reviews. 4 Given the complexity of the international system
and the potential for cross-domain or hybrid conflict, panelists – including Elaine Bunn, Michael Chase,
and Barry Blechman – thought it useful for defense planners to consider these issues within a holistic
strategic context. In particular, Dr. Chase noted that the integration of nuclear, missile defense, cyber,
and space forces into the 2014 QDR would provide planners with a key opportunity to address crisis
stability and escalation management problems.

Areas of Considerable Agreement
• High-level involvement in drafting the terms of reference (TOR) can generate a lengthy and
contentious debate, but in 2010, resulted in greater ownership of the QDR process among senior
leaders.

Elaine Bunn noted that high-level involvement in drafting the 2010 QDR terms of reference meant “a
long drawn-out process…[that] triggered arguments over almost every word in it.” However, such
involvement also promoted the type of ownership among senior leaders that is critical to establishing
priorities and managing competing interests. Furthermore, achieving early consensus on the TOR
enabled “the QDR team to jump off a higher launch pad,” Ms. Bunn said, thereby resulting in a more
efficient and cohesive process. Shawn Brimley agreed that early, high-level involvement in establishing
the TOR was beneficial to the 2010 QDR and should be replicated in the upcoming review.

• Defense procurement accounts have historically borne the brunt of reductions in the defense
budget (as, for example, in the post-Cold War drawdown). And given the reluctance of both
Congress and DoD to stop the growth of pay and benefits for uniformed personnel, there will be
continued – and increasing – pressure on these accounts that could ultimately result in the

4
Although the terms of reference for the 2014 QDR have yet to be established, several panelists speculated that
they would call for an examination of nuclear, missile defense, cyber, and space forces.

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inability to equip the force. Furthermore, heavy reductions in the procurement accounts could
threaten the near-term health of the defense industrial base.

Gordon Adams noted that pressure on procurement has already resulted in a decline in acquisitions
dollars from the FY2010 peak. This trend should be expected to continue as the drawdown progresses.
Indeed, David Berteau projected that failure to control internal cost growth could result in a 20 percent
budget share for procurement, R&D, MILCON, and family housing. “There is no historical example of a
nation able to sustain expeditionary global capability if it’s only investing 20 percent of its resources in
procurement, R&D, and its investment accounts,” he observed.

Peter Singer noted an additional challenge impacting procurement during a defense drawdown: “The
old is privileged by current contracts, current program offices, current internal tribes and bureaucratic
constituencies who see their careers as linked to these current programs, and current factories in
current congressional districts with current lobbyists working for them.” As a result of these vested
interests, legacy systems are often protected at the expense of new technologies that may be better
suited to current strategy.

Finally, Mr. Berteau addressed the impact of reductions on the defense industrial base: “The second
and third tiers have much less robustness [than the primes] in being able to sustain and survive
this…and where you’re particularly going to see the impact is in services contracts because the deferral
of contracts that comes from sequestration and beyond doesn’t have an immediate impact on the
hardware side but will have a very immediate and near-term impact on the services side.” Defense
planners should be mindful of these effects as they conduct the 2014 QDR, he concluded.

• The future international security environment is complex and uncertain with numerous sources
of instability. There are few, if any, near-term existential threats to Americans, but many
strategic challenges.

There was considerable agreement on Panel 3 that the nature of the future international security
environment is uncertain but presents a number of potentially concerning trends. Drawing upon the
conclusions of “Global Trends 2030,” Mathew Burrows highlighted the increase in resource stress due to
population growth and climate change, the increase in individual access to lethal disruptive
technologies, and the relative economic decline of the West – particularly in contrast to emerging
economies like China. Micah Zenko also identified challenges related to governance, sustainability,
development, climate change, and food scarcity, but emphasized that he did not believe the military
would be the appropriate instrument for addressing these issues.

• If a rising China undertakes an increasingly assertive and nationalistic defense strategy, it could
ultimately undermine U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific; however, economic interdependence
could also result in China seeking a more constructive relationship with the United States.

The rise of China and attendant implications for U.S. defense strategy were addressed by a number of
panelists throughout the day. Many acknowledged the rise in Chinese defense spending and the

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possibility of continued disputes in the East and South China Seas, but did not see a strong potential for
direct military conflict between China and the United States given shared economic and political
interests. Several panelists additionally noted the need to maintain a strong alliance network in the
region as a means of deterring Chinese adventurism.

• The QDR’s twenty year timeline creates tension between efforts to manage current realities and
plan for future contingencies.

As an example of the tension created by the QDR’s twenty year planning horizon, Jim Thomas cited the
2006 QDR, which attempted to balance the immediate need for ground forces, arising from U.S.
involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan, with the assessment that the need for ground forces would
significantly decline by 2026. This left defense planners with a choice between drawing down – and
stressing – a force that was in high demand in the near-term and growing a ground force that was likely
to be drawn down in the long-term.

Peter Singer noted the additional difficulty of incorporating rapid technological innovation into a twenty
year planning horizon. “Between the time when we start the QDR and when it comes out, roughly we’ll
see a doubling in our technological power,” he observed. Furthermore, there are a number of emergent
and potentially disruptive technologies, including robotics, cyber capabilities, nanotechnology, directed
energy, and 3D printing, that could hold unforeseen implications for U.S. defense strategy and military
capabilities.

• The United States is the only nation in the world with global responsibilities. Those
responsibilities can be a blessing as well as a curse. The U.S. network of allies and partners
provides a source of both leverage and entanglement that will require attention in an era of
declining defense budgets.

Panelists noted that an important consideration for the 2014 QDR will be the role and management of
alliance relationships in an era of declining defense budgets. “The underappreciated tension here is
between helping [allies and partners] build their capacity to do more on their own, assuring them that
we have the capabilities and the resolve to stand behind them, but at the same time discouraging them
from engaging in unnecessarily risky behavior that might draw us into a crisis or a conflict that could
otherwise have been avoided,” Michael Chase offered. Several panelists agreed that achieving balance
in this regard will be particularly important in the Asia-Pacific, where a strong network of allies and
partners is intended to play a crucial role in upholding deterrence and promoting stability in the region.
David Berteau added that allies and partners will also be a key “part of the evolving dynamic in Africa
and with AFRICOM.”

Citing the lessons of defense economics, Mr. Berteau and Michael O’Hanlon observed that using allies
and partners in this manner (e.g., forward basing on allied territory) could allow the U.S. to fulfill
defense requirements at reduced costs. Barry Blechman countered that “large permanent bases…have
disadvantages in terms of encouraging freeriding or freeloading. If you’re not being diplomatic, they
become magnets for those who oppose us, particularly in regions like the Middle East where they’re
viewed as an incursion.” “They’re not necessary given our technical capabilities now,” he concluded.

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• With the exception of nuclear forces (as discussed below), there was considerable agreement on
the types of capabilities that will be required to address the future security environment. These
capabilities were similar to those enumerated in the 2012 DSG.

Barry Watts identified reconnaissance, precision strike, air dominance, undersea warfare, cyber, space,
robotics, and combat training as candidates for a list of critical capabilities, but noted that current fiscal
and strategic conditions mean that not all of these can be a top priority. “If you have 150 top priorities,
you don’t have a strategy,” he said. “You’re simply trying to do everything as usual, which is where the
Pentagon has generally been in the past.” Disciplined prioritization will thus be a crucial task for the
2014 QDR.

Outlining the capability priorities of the Stimson Center’s Defense Advisory Committee, Barry Blechman
similarly stated that Special Operations Forces and superior cyber, space, air, and naval forces should all
be sustained.

• Most panelists agreed that DoD has demonstrated little ability to control internal cost growth
(particularly in the personnel, O&M, and acquisition accounts) or execute efficiency measures
and argued that force structure and procurement cuts would be required to realize necessary
savings.

Given DoD’s potential inability to realize efficiency savings, as well as the DSG’s directive that “U.S.
forces will no longer be sized to conduct large-scale, prolonged stability operations,” several panelists
predicted that the active-duty end strength of ground forces will be reduced below the 102,000 cut
planned in FY2013-2017.5 Gordon Adams, Michael O’Hanlon, and Barry Blechman all foresaw the need
for such reductions, with Dr. O’Hanlon recommending an active-duty Army end strength of 450,000 and
Marine end strength of 160,000. Dr. Blechman argued that, under the most austere fiscal conditions,
Army force structure could be reduced to 30 active-duty brigade combat teams; Navy cruisers, CONUS-
based missile defense, and active F-16s and airlift could also be reduced.

Areas of Sharp Disagreement

• One of the principal areas of disagreement between conference participants was with regard to
the prospect of DoD finding efficiency savings significantly beyond the $210B claimed by
Secretaries Gates and Panetta; several panelists expressed doubt that even these efficiencies
could be achieved.

Gordon Adams, Todd Harrison, Steve Stanley, and Barry Watts were pessimistic that DoD could realize
the $210B in savings known as the “Gates Efficiencies,” with Mr. Stanley arguing that “Congress is not
going to authorize or allow the Defense Department to [implement many of the measures]” and Mr.
Watts terming the realization of even 20 percent of them “monumental.”

5 st
Department of Defense, “Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21 Century Defense,” January 2012,
http://www.defense.gov/news/defense_strategic_guidance.pdf.

12

Michael O’Hanlon and Barry Blechman, however, saw opportunities for savings above the $210B already
identified. In his presentation, Dr. O’Hanlon highlighted several specific areas in which he believes
greater efficiencies could be achieved, including the introduction of Sea Swap (where different crews are
rotated through a single ship) for surface combatants – which could result in an approximately 30-40
percent efficiency gain for the Navy – and the forward basing of TACAIR. He estimated that
implementing such measures could result in up to $200B of additional savings over 10 years.

Dr. Blechman went even further, noting that the Stimson Center’s Defense Advisory Committee had,
following a review of official governmental and congressional studies, identified approximately $900B in
potential savings over 10 years though compensation reform, acquisitions reform, and improved
manpower utilization. Dr. Blechman stated that, in the current budget environment, a 20 percent
realization of this amount would be realistic.

• Conference participants were divided on whether the utility of QDRs is such that it warrants a
substantial investment of time and manpower. While some panelists believed that QDRs have
never been worth the effort, others believed that they provide an opportunity to improve the
alignment of ends and means.

Jim Thomas pointedly noted that he “can’t think of a worse way of making good strategy than a
quadrennial defense review.” “Getting a couple of thousand people involved from across the
bureaucracy, having lots of working groups, the coordination process, writing an unclassified document
with lots of glossy pictures that you’re going to put out there and you’re going to pass off to your allies,
as well as your enemies, as well as folks in your military and then industry - you’ve got too many
audiences in play,” he explained. Barry Watts agreed, endorsing the wholesale cancellation of QDRs.

Others argued that, while conducting the QDR under such uncertain fiscal and strategic conditions will
present numerous challenges, it will provide an opportunity to prioritize capabilities, operationalize the
DSG, integrate strategic forces into the planning process, and better align the nation’s defense strategy
with the resources available.

• Panelists held a range of perspectives on the role of U.S. nuclear weapons as well as on the
optimal size of the arsenal.

Tom Donnelly argued that a robust nuclear arsenal is required to reinforce extended deterrence and
hedge against, for example, an expanding Chinese arsenal and Russian modernization program. Given
the uncertainty of the future security environment, Mr. Donnelly urged caution against the reductions
required by New START.

In contrast, Michael O’Hanlon supported maintaining the arsenal at the New START level of “1,550
strategic, long-term, safe, reliable warheads,” but advocated a shift in nuclear force structure. “I would
cut the ICBM force in half…[and] use the bomber force, which we have anyway, for conventional
missions more as a way of…populating or representing a higher fraction of the 1,550,” he said. Dr.
O’Hanlon additionally recommended reducing the number of Ohio-class submarines to eight. He
estimated that these changes could result in up to $3B in savings.

13

Discussing the findings of the Stimson Center’s Defense Advisory Committee, Barry Blechman conveyed
the group’s agreement on the value of maintaining an effective nuclear arsenal. Nonetheless, the group
saw opportunities for deeper reductions. “We think it's preferable to make reductions along with Russia
in a new treaty, but it might be possible since Russia is already below the New START levels to reach
some sort of reciprocal arrangements which brings both side's forces down, even without a new treaty,”
he explained.

Specific Recommendations
• The convergence of recommended defense strategies (e.g., the 2012 DSG, the Defense Advisory
Committee’s “Strategic Agility,” Andrew Krepinevich’s “Assured Access”) suggests that the
principal choices in the 2014 QDR will not involve alternative strategies, but rather the
prioritization of the capabilities needed to execute the strategy.

o Consequently, the main thrust of the 2014 QDR should focus on establishing capability
priorities under the increasingly tight fiscal constraints caused by the combined effects
of the defense drawdown and continued internal cost growth. Understanding the force
structure and capabilities that are affordable at different levels of resource availability
will aid senior decisionmakers in reaching informed decisions on which capabilities to
cut and which to preserve.

• Given the uncertainty and complexity of the future security environment, as well as the
potential increase in attention to nuclear, missile defense, cyber, and space forces in the 2014
QDR, it would be prudent to identify and assess the conditions or challenges that might require
significant changes to the 2012 DSG.

o Considering alternative future security scenarios could also help identify those
circumstances under which current disagreements within the policy community (for
example, with respect to the role and value of U.S. nuclear weapons) could be resolved.

• In this age of increasing austerity, QDRs should be used to direct policymakers to exercise
discipline in spending and to identify additional sources of savings in order to maximize the
"purchasing power" of defense dollars (in terms of how much capability they "buy").

o There is widespread agreement that we are in a defense drawdown. Examining the
implications of the combined effects of internal cost growth and the declining defense
budget topline for U.S. military capability would make a compelling case for why both
DoD and Congress must address the uncontrolled growth of internal costs as well as
DoD's bloated infrastructure.

o To this end, the QDR should examine all DoD components, including acquisitions,
technology, and logistics (AT&L) and personnel and readiness (P&R), in order to identify

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sources of and solutions to the internal cost growth that is hamstringing the
Department.

15

Appendix A: Conference Agenda

8:30–9:00 Check-in and Breakfast

9:00–9:15 Opening Remarks

Dr. Clark A. Murdock, Senior Adviser and Director, Defense and National
Security Group, Center for Strategic and International Studies

9:15–10:30 Lessons Learned from the 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance and Past
Quadrennial Defense Reviews
Assessing the 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance and past QDRs as well as
identifying lessons learned

Mr. Rudy deLeon, Senior Vice President, International and Security Policy,
Center for American Progress

Mr. Jim Thomas, Vice President and Director of Studies, Center for Strategic and
Budgetary Assessments

Mr. Shawn Brimley, Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security

Ms. M. Elaine Bunn, Distinguished Research Fellow, Future Strategic Concepts
Program, National Defense University

10:30–10:45 Break

10:45–12:00 Unique Challenges Facing DOD under Budgetary Pressures
Exploring and explaining the scale and nature of the fiscal problem set likely to
face the Department of Defense due to a reduction in defense dollars as well as
to the declining purchasing power of the defense dollar

Dr. Gordon Adams, Distinguished Fellow, Budgeting for Foreign Affairs and
Defense, Stimson Center

Mr. Todd Harrison, Senior Fellow for Defense Budget Studies, Center for
Strategic and Budgetary Assessments

Mr. David J. Berteau, Senior Vice President and Director, International Security
Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Dr. Michael E. O’Hanlon, Senior Fellow, 21st Century Defense Initiative, and
Director of Research, Foreign Policy, Brookings Institution

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12:00–13:00 Lunch and Speaker

Introductory Remarks: Dr. John J. Hamre, President and CEO, Center for
Strategic and International Studies

Keynote Speech: Mr. Stephen J. Hadley, former National Security Advisor and
Principal, RiceHadleyGates LLC

13:00–14:15 The Future International Security Environment
Examining the factors shaping the future security environment, including but not
limited to geopolitical/demographic trends, changes in the nature of warfare,
and foreign military capabilities

Dr. Mathew Burrows, Counselor and Director, Analysis and Production Staff,
National Intelligence Council

Dr. Micah Zenko, Douglas Dillon Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations

Dr. Michael S. Chase, Associate Research Professor, Warfare Analysis and
Research Department, U.S. Naval War College

Dr. Peter W. Singer, Senior Fellow and Director, 21st Century Defense Initiative,
Brookings Institution

14:15–14:30 Break

14:30–16:00 Considerations for the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review
Recommendations for prioritizing among U.S. defense requirements and
formulating U.S. defense strategy amid fiscal constraints

Mr. Thomas Donnelly, Resident Fellow and Co-Director, Marilyn Ware Center for
Security Studies, American Enterprise Institute

Mr. Barry Watts, Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments

Vice Admiral P. Stephen Stanley (Ret.), Vice President of Cybersecurity/C4,
Northrop Grumman

Dr. Barry M. Blechman, Co-founder and Distinguished Fellow, Stimson Center

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16:00–16:15 Closing Remarks

Identifying key conference takeaways

Dr. Clark A. Murdock, Senior Adviser and Director, Defense and National
Security Group, Center for Strategic and International Studies

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Appendix B: About the Panelists and Keynote Speaker

Gordon Adams is a Professor in the U.S. Foreign Policy Program at the School of International Service,
American University. He is also a Distinguished Fellow at the Stimson Center. He was a Fellow at the
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and, for seven years, a Professor at the Elliott School
of International Affairs, George Washington University and Director of the School's Security Policy
Studies Program. For five years he was Associate Director for National Security and International Affairs
at the Office of Management and Budget, the senior White House budget official for national security.
He has been an International Affairs Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and received the
Department of Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service. Mr. Adams' most recent book (with
Cindy Williams) is Buying National Security: How America Plans and Pays for Its Global Role and Security
at Home (Routledge 2010). He has published books, monographs and articles on defense and national
security policy, the defense policy process, and national security budgets. He appears regularly in the
media and has testified numerous times before the Congress. Dr. Adams holds a Ph.D. from Columbia
University.

David J. Berteau is senior vice president and director of the CSIS International Security Program, which
encompasses the entire range of national security programs, including defense policy and resources,
homeland security, nuclear arms issues, the development-security interface, security economics, and
defense and military strategy. He is also director of the CSIS Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group,
covering defense management, programs, contracting and acquisition, and the defense industry. Recent
projects include the CSIS study on U.S. forward presence in the Asia-Pacific region and presentations on
the impact of sequestration on national security. In addition to CSIS, Mr. Berteau is an adjunct professor
at Georgetown University and at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, a director of the
Procurement Round Table, and a fellow of both the National Academy of Public Administration and the
Robert S. Strauss Center at the University of Texas. Prior to joining CSIS, he was the faculty director of
Syracuse University’s National Security Studies Program, and he has 15 years of senior corporate
experience. He held senior positions in the U.S. Defense Department under four defense secretaries. Mr.
Berteau graduated from Tulane University in 1971 and received his master’s degree in 1981 from the LBJ
School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas.

Barry M. Blechman is the co-founder of the Stimson Center, and a distinguished fellow focused on
nuclear disarmament. He was chair of Stimson's board from 1989 to 2007. Dr. Blechman founded DFI
International Inc., a research consultancy, in 1984 and served as its CEO until 2007. Dr. Blechman has
nearly 50 years of distinguished service in national security, in both the public and private sectors. He is
an expert on political and military policies, military strategy, and defense budgets and industries and has
worked in the Departments of State and Defense, and at the Office of Management and Budget. Among
other boards and commissions, Dr. Blechman served on the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile
Threat to the United States (1998-99), the Defense Policy Board (2002-06), and the Department of State
Advisory Committee on Transformational Diplomacy (2005-08). Dr. Blechman holds a Ph.D. in

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international relations from Georgetown University, has taught at several universities, and has written
extensively on national security issues. In 2010, he co-chaired the Iran Study Group with Daniel
Brumberg of the US Institute of Peace; the group’s report is called Engagement, Coercion, and Iran’s
Nuclear Challenge. Dr. Blechman’s recent publications include Elements of a Nuclear Disarmament
Treaty and National Perspectives on Nuclear Disarmament. Both volumes, which he co-edited with
Alexander Bollfrass, were published by Stimson in 2010.

Shawn Brimley is a Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) and will assume the
position of Vice President and Director of Studies as of February 1, 2013. Mr. Brimley rejoined CNAS
after serving in the Obama Administration from February 2009 to October 2012 most recently as
Director for Strategic Planning on the National Security Council staff at the White House. He also served
as Special Advisor to the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy at the Pentagon from 2009-2011, where
he focused on the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review, overseas basing and posture, and long-range
strategy development. Mr. Brimley was a founding member of CNAS in 2007 and was the inaugural
recipient of the 1Lt. Andrew Bacevich Jr. Memorial Fellowship. He has also worked at the Center for
Strategic and International Studies. Mr. Brimley has been published in a variety of venues, including the
New York Times, Foreign Affairs, and Foreign Policy. Educated at Queen’s University and George
Washington University, his research interests include U.S. national security strategy and defense policy,
the impact of emerging technology on U.S. strategic choices, and the evolution of America’s global
diplomatic and defense posture. Mr. Brimley is a term member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Elaine Bunn, a Distinguished Research Fellow, directs the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS)
Future Strategic Concepts Program at National Defense University. Before joining INSS in 2000, Ms.
Bunn was a senior executive in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, where she worked for twenty
years in international security policy. She served as Principal Director, Nuclear Forces and Missile
Defense Policy, from 1993-98. During that time, she was executive director of the 1994 Nuclear Posture
Review. She was a visiting fellow at the RAND Corporation, 1998-2000; from February through June
2001, she co-chaired a panel for the Secretary of Defense, framing issues for the 2001 Nuclear Posture
Review. Ms. Bunn, a 1988 graduate of the National War College, received an M.A. in International
Security from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in 1980. She was a Fulbright
Scholar at the Université de Neuchâtel, Switzerland in 1974-75, after graduating from the University of
Georgia with a B.A. in International Political Communications. She was awarded the Defense Medal for
Distinguished Civilian Service in 1995 and the Medal for Meritorious Civilian Service in 1989 and 1993.
She has published a number of articles and book chapters on deterrence and dissuasion, strategic
planning, nuclear policy, missile defense, and preemption.

Mathew J. Burrows was appointed counselor to the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in July 2007 and
director of the Analysis and Production Staff (APS) in January 2010. He is also a member of the
Directorate of Intelligence’s (DI) Senior Analyst Service. From 2003 to 2007, as director of APS, Dr.
Burrows was responsible for managing a staff of senior analysts and production technicians, who guide
and shepherd all NIC products from inception to dissemination. In addition, he was asked to set up and
direct the NIC’s new Long Range Analysis Unit in September 2005. Other previous positions included

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assignments as special assistant to the United States Ambassador to the United Nations Richard
Holbrooke (1999-2001), and deputy national security advisor to US Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill
(2001-02). From 1998 to 1999, he was the first holder of the Intelligence Community Fellowship and
served at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. Dr. Burrows joined the Central Intelligence
Agency in 1986, where he served as analyst for the DI, covering Western Europe, including the
development of European institutions such as the European Union. Dr. Burrows was the principal
drafter of the NIC publication, Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. This publication has received
widespread recognition and praise in the international media and among academics and think tanks. He
is now working on Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, to be launched later this year at an Atlantic
Council conference in Washington, DC. Dr. Burrows graduated from Wesleyan University in 1976 and in
1983, and received a Ph.D. in European history from Cambridge University.

Michael S. Chase is an Associate Research Professor in the Warfare Analysis and Research Department
at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, RI. He is also Director of the Mahan Research Group, a
student-faculty research group that focuses on strategic deterrence and escalation issues related to
nuclear, space, cyber, and conventional strike capabilities. He previously served as a faculty member in
the Strategy and Policy Department at the War College. Prior to joining the faculty at the War College,
Dr. Chase served as a research analyst with Defense Group Inc. in Washington, DC and an associate
international policy analyst with the RAND Corporation in Arlington, VA. Dr. Chase earned a Ph.D. in
international affairs from the Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)
in Washington, DC. He also holds an M.A. in China studies from SAIS and a B.A. in politics from Brandeis
University. In addition, Dr. Chase studied at the University of Bristol in England and the Hopkins-Nanjing
Center in Nanjing, China. He has advanced proficiency in Chinese (Mandarin). Dr. Chase's current
research includes work on Chinese nuclear and conventional missile force modernization, China's
counter space capabilities, China's strategic threat perceptions, and Chinese naval developments. He is
the author of the book Taiwan's Security Policy: External Threats and Domestic Politics, as well as
numerous articles on Chinese military issues that have appeared in publications such as the Journal of
Strategic Studies, Survival, Joint Force Quarterly, Proceedings, and China Brief.

Rudy deLeon is the Senior Vice President of National Security and International Policy at the Center for
American Progress in Washington, D.C. He serves on several nonprofit boards and is a part-time college
instructor. Mr. deLeon is a former Deputy Secretary of Defense, where he was a member of the
Deputies Committee of the National Security Council and the National Partnership Council. In earlier
Pentagon assignments, Mr. deLeon served as undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness
from 1997 to 2000, and as undersecretary of the Air Force from 1994 to 1997. He worked as a Capitol
Hill staff director before starting with the Department of Defense, serving on the Committee on Armed
Services in the U.S. House of Representatives as a member of the professional staff and as staff director.
Mr. deLeon served for five years as a senior vice president for the Boeing Company after leaving the
Pentagon. He earned a bachelor's degree from Loyola Marymount University and completed the
executive program in national and international security at the John F. Kennedy School of Government
at Harvard University.

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Thomas Donnelly, a defense and security policy analyst, is the co-director of the Marilyn Ware Center
for Security Studies at the American Enterprise Institute. From 1995 to 1999, he was policy group
director and a professional staff member for the House Committee on Armed Services. Mr. Donnelly
also served as a member of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. He is a former
editor of Armed Forces Journal, Army Times, Defense News, and The National Interest. Mr. Donnelly
worked as the Director of Strategic Communications and Initiatives at Lockheed Martin Corporation and
Deputy Executive Director at Project for the New American Century. His most recent of many books is
Lessons for a Long War: How America Can Win on New Battlefields (2010), co-authored with Frederick
W. Kagan. Mr. Donnelly received his B.A. from Ithaca College and his M.I.P.P. from the School of
Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University.

Stephen Hadley completed four years as the assistant to the president for National Security Affairs on
January 20, 2009. In that capacity he was the principal White House foreign policy adviser to then
President George W. Bush, directed the National Security Council staff, and ran the interagency national
security policy development and execution process. From January 20, 2001, to January 20, 2005, Mr.
Hadley was the assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser, serving under then
National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice. In addition to covering the full range of national security
issues, he had special responsibilities in several specific areas including U.S. relations with Russia, the
Israeli disengagement from Gaza, developing a strategic relationship with India and ballistic missile
defense. From 1993 to 2001, Mr. Hadley was both a partner in the Washington D.C. law firm of Shea &
Gardner (now part of Goodwin Proctor) and a principal in The Scowcroft Group (a strategic consulting
firm headed by former National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft). In his consulting practice, he
represented U.S. corporate clients in transactional and international matters—including export controls,
foreign investment in U.S. national security companies, and the national security responsibilities of U.S.
information technology companies. From 1989 to 1993, Mr. Hadley served as Assistant Secretary of
Defense for International Security Policy for President George H.W. Bush, and from 1974 to 1977 he
served on the National Security Council staff of President Gerald R. Ford. Mr. Hadley remains engaged
on U.S. national security policy, currently serving on the State Department’s Foreign Affairs Policy Board.
He is also a Director of the Atlantic Council, serving on its Executive Committee and is a member of the
Board of Managers of the Johns Hopkins University’s Applied Physics Laboratory, Chairman of RAND’s
Center for Middle East Public Policy Advisory Board, and a member of Yale University’s Kissinger Papers
Advisory Board. He previously held positions as co-chair of the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review
Independent Panel, a member of the Department of Defense Policy Board, and a trustee of the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace. Mr. Hadley also serves as Senior Advisor on International Affairs to
the United States Institute of Peace (USIP). Mr. Hadley graduated magna cum laude and Phi Beta Kappa
from Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, in 1969. In 1972, he received his J.D. degree from Yale Law
School in New Haven, Connecticut, where he was Note and Comment Editor of the Yale Law Journal.

John Hamre was elected president and CEO of CSIS in January 2000. Before joining CSIS, he served as
the 26th U.S. deputy secretary of defense. Prior to holding that post, he was the under secretary of
defense (comptroller) from 1993 to 1997. As comptroller, Dr. Hamre was the principal assistant to the

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secretary of defense for the preparation, presentation, and execution of the defense budget and
management improvement programs. In 2007, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates appointed Dr. Hamre
to serve as chairman of the Defense Policy Board. Before serving in the Department of Defense, Dr.
Hamre worked for 10 years as a professional staff member of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
During that time, he was primarily responsible for the oversight and evaluation of procurement,
research, and development programs, defense budget issues, and relations with the Senate
Appropriations Committee. From 1978 to 1984, Dr. Hamre served in the Congressional Budget Office,
where he became its deputy assistant director for national security and international affairs. In that
position, he oversaw analysis and other support for committees in both the House of Representatives
and the Senate. Dr. Hamre received his Ph.D., with distinction, in 1978 from the School of Advanced
International Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington, D.C., where his studies focused on
international politics and economics and U.S. foreign policy. In 1972, he received his B.A., with high
distinction, from Augustana College in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, emphasizing political science and
economics. The following year he studied as a Rockefeller fellow at the Harvard Divinity School in
Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Todd Harrison is the Senior Fellow for Defense Budget Studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary
Assessments (CSBA). Mr. Harrison joined CSBA in 2009 from Booz Allen Hamilton, where he supported
clients across the Department of Defense, assessing challenges to modernization initiatives and
evaluating the performance of acquisition programs. He previously worked in the aerospace industry
developing advanced space systems and technologies and served as a Captain in the U.S. Air Force
Reserves. Mr. Harrison combines his budgetary, programmatic and engineering experience with a strong
background in systems analysis to lead the budget program for CSBA. He is a graduate of the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology with both a Bachelor of Science and Master of Science degree in
Aeronautics and Astronautics.

Clark Murdock is the senior adviser for the Defense and National Security Group at CSIS and the director
of the Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI). Joining CSIS in January 2001, Dr. Murdock has completed studies
on a wide range of defense and national security issues, directing the four-phase study on Defense
Department reform, “Beyond Goldwater-Nichols: USG and Defense Reform for a New Strategic Era.”
Murdock is currently leading the U.S.-UK-France trilateral track-2 nuclear dialogue. He is the principal
author of Improving the Practice of National Security Strategy: A New Approach for the Post–Cold War
World (CSIS, 2004) and The Department of Defense and the Nuclear Mission in the 21st Century (CSIS,
2008) and the coauthor of Revitalizing the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent (CSIS, 2002) and Nuclear Weapons in
21st Century U.S. National Security (AAAS, 2008). Dr. Murdock has served in many additional roles in the
defense world, including as a senior policy adviser to House Armed Services Committee chairman Les
Aspin, as an analyst and Africa issues manager in the CIA, and in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.
He also taught for 10 years at the State University of New York at Buffalo. He is an honors graduate of
Swarthmore College and holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Wisconsin at Madison.

Michael O'Hanlon is a senior fellow with the 21st Century Defense Initiative and director of research for
the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution, where he specializes in U.S. defense strategy,

23

the use of military force, and American foreign policy. He is a visiting lecturer at Princeton University and
adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins University. Dr. O'Hanlon was an analyst at the Congressional Budget
Office from 1989-1994. He also worked previously at the Institute for Defense Analyses. Dr. O’Hanlon’s
latest book is The Science of War (Princeton University Press, 2009). He has written several hundred op-
eds in newspapers including The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times, The
Washington Times, and The Japan Times, and published articles in many other major newspapers. He
has appeared on television or spoken on the radio about 2,000 times since September 11, 2001. Dr.
O’Hanlon’s Ph.D. from Princeton is in public and international affairs; his bachelor's and master's
degrees, also from Princeton, are in the physical sciences.

Peter W. Singer is the director of the 21st Century Defense Initiative and a senior fellow in Foreign
Policy at Brookings. He is the youngest scholar to be named senior fellow in Brookings's 90-year history.
Dr. Singer’s research focuses on three core issues: the future of war, current U.S. defense needs and
future priorities, and the future of the U.S. defense system. Singer lectures frequently to U.S. military
audiences and is the author of several books and articles, including Wired for War: The Robotics
Revolution and Conflict in the 21st Century. In his personal capacity, Singer served as coordinator of the
Obama-08 campaign’s defense policy task force, as a consultant for the US Department of Defense and
FBI, and has advised a host of entertainment programs. Dr. Singer is considered one of the world's
leading experts on changes in 21st century warfare. He was named by the President to Joint Forces
Command's Transformation Advisory Group. He is a columnist for Armed Forces Journal and has written
for the full range of major media and journals. He has provided commentary on military affairs for nearly
every major TV and radio outlet. Prior to his current position, Dr. Singer was the founding Director of the
Project on U.S. Policy Towards the Islamic World in the Saban Center at Brookings. He has also worked
for the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University, the Balkans Task Force
in the U.S. Department of Defense, and the International Peace Academy. Singer received his Ph.D. in
Government from Harvard University and a B.A. from the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and
International Affairs at Princeton University.

P. Stephen Stanley is Vice President of Cybersecurity/C4 at Northrop Grumman. In this role, he leads the
Cybersecurity/C4 portfolio in the company's Government Relations organization. Prior to joining
Northrop Grumman, Mr. Stanley retired with the rank of vice admiral following a 37-year career with
the U.S. Navy. He most recently served as the principal deputy director of cost assessment and program
evaluation, Office of the Secretary of Defense. Prior to that, he served as director for force structure,
resources and assessments for the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He also served in a number of
financial management positions for the Navy. Within the U.S. Navy submarine force, Stanley served in
many leadership positions including commander, Submarine Group Eight and deputy director of
submarine warfare. Mr. Stanley earned a bachelor's degree in ocean engineering from the United States
Naval Academy. He has been awarded the Defense Distinguished Service Medal, the Distinguished
Service Medal, and several other personal and unit awards.

Jim Thomas is Vice President and Director of Studies at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary
Assessments. He oversees CSBA’s research programs and directs the Strategic and Budget Studies staff.

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Prior to joining CSBA, he was Vice President of Applied Minds, Inc., a private research and development
company specializing in rapid, interdisciplinary technology prototyping. Before that, Mr. Thomas served
for thirteen years in a variety of policy, planning and resource analysis posts in the Department of
Defense and was responsible for the development of the Defense Strategy, conventional force planning,
resource assessment, and the oversight of war plans. He spearheaded the 2005-2006 Quadrennial
Defense Review (QDR), and was the principal author of the QDR report to Congress. Mr. Thomas began
his career in national security at Los Alamos National Laboratory and previously served as a Presidential
Management Intern. From 1999 to 2001, Jim worked in the Secretary of Defense’s Strategy Office,
playing a lead role developing the defense strategy and force planning construct for the 2001 QDR. From
2001 to 2003, he served as Special Assistant to the Deputy Secretary of Defense. He was promoted to
the Senior Executive Service in 2003. Mr. Thomas received the Department of Defense Medal for
Exceptional Civilian Service in 1997 for his work at NATO, and the Department of Defense Medal for
Distinguished Public Service, the department’s highest civilian award, in 2006 for his strategy work. Mr.
Thomas holds a B.A. with high honors from the College of William and Mary, an M.A. from the University
of Virginia and an M.A. from Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. A
former Naval reserve officer, he attained the rank of lieutenant commander.

Barry Watts, who joined the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments in 2002, previously headed
the Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation at the Defense Department (2001-2002). Following
retirement from the Air Force in 1986 until 2001, Mr. Watts was with the Northrop Grumman Analysis
Center, which he directed from 1997 to 2001. During his Air Force career, Mr. Watts flew a combat tour
in Vietnam in F-4s, taught logic and philosophy at the U.S. Air Force Academy, served two tours in the
Office of Net Assessment, and headed the Red Team in the Air Staff’s Project Checkmate. Mr. Watts has
written on a wide variety of military topics, including a number of CSBA monographs: The Defense
Industrial Base (2011, co-authored with Todd Harrison); The Revolution in Military Affairs (2011);
Regaining Strategic Competence (2008, co-authored with Andrew Krepinevich); The Case for Long-Range
Strike (2008); The Past and Future of the Defense Industrial Base (2008); U.S. Combat Training,
Operational Art, and Strategic Competence: Problems and Opportunities (2008); Six Decades of Guided
Munitions and Battle Networks (2007); U.S. Fighter Modernization (2007, co-authored with Steve
Kosiak); Long-Range Strike: Imperatives, Urgency and Options (2005); and The Military Use of Space: A
Diagnostic Assessment (2001). He holds a B.S. in Mathematics from the U.S. Air Force Academy and an
M.A. in Philosophy from the University of Pittsburgh.

Micah Zenko is the Douglas Dillon Fellow in the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) at the Council on
Foreign Relations (CFR). Previously, he worked for five years at Harvard University's Kennedy School of
Government, and in Washington, DC, at the Brookings Institution, Congressional Research Service, and
State Department's Office of Policy Planning. Dr. Zenko has published on a range of national security
issues, including articles in Foreign Affairs, the Journal of Strategic Studies, Defense and Security
Analysis, and Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, and op-eds in the
Washington Post, Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, and the New York Times. He writes the blog
Politics, Power and Preventive Action, which covers U.S. national security policy, international security,

25

and conflict prevention. He tweets at @MicahZenko and was named by Foreign Policy as one of "The
FPTwitterati 100" in 2011 and 2012. Dr. Zenko is the author or coauthor of four Council Special Reports
(CSRs): Reforming U.S. Drone Strike Policies; Partners in Preventive Action: The United States and
International Institutions; Toward Deeper Reductions in U.S. and Russian Nuclear Weapons; and
Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action. His book, Between Threats and War: U.S. Discrete Military Operations
in the Post-Cold War World, was published by Stanford University Press.

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Appendix C: Panelist Presentations6

Panel 1: Lessons Learned from the 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance and Past
Quadrennial Defense Reviews

Shawn Brimley

Thinking about the Quadrennial Defense Review process is a great way to grapple with some of the
toughest defense policy and planning questions there are: from the current and future security
environment, to core roles and missions issues, to overseas basing, key regional policy issues, and the
size, shape, and operational tempo of our armed forces.

QDRs are best considered component parts of the broad arc of U.S. defense policy. QDRs make the most
sense as you think about the history of the post-Cold War, America’s role in the world, the post-9/11
era, and the overall health of the U.S. economy. This is the strategic context of QDRs. Individual QDRs
are, in this way, snapshots in time. These snapshots make the most sense as a broader portfolio – from
the Base Force and the Bottom-Up Review to the four QDRs. Across these reviews, recurring contours
of inquiry come into sharp relief:

• How to best assess the sufficiency of the current and planned force;
• How to understand core missions and how those missions relate to one another;
• How to understand the changing nature of warfare;
• How to address lowering entry barriers that have seen state and non-state actors gain access to
increasingly advanced technology;
• How to understand U.S. security commitments to key allies and partners;
• How to conceive of America’s forward deployed forces and overseas bases;
• How to encourage the military services to account for stability operations and building partner
security capacity in training, in doctrine and in force sizing;
• How to preserve America’s ability to project power at a time and place of its choosing;

But individual QDRs are also highly dependent on other factors, chief among them the disposition and
priorities of the Secretary of Defense. While QDRs are in the most basic sense an obligation to Congress,
most Secretaries of Defense think of QDRs as one of many tools he or she has to affect change in DOD.

The following are observations gleaned from the author’s role as the “drafter” of the 2010 QDR—a role
more akin to an observer of the process vice a decision-maker.

The author would like to thank Meggaen Neely for her assistance with this section of the report.
6
The written statements and briefs in the following section were prepared and submitted by the panelists, unless
denoted by an asterisk (*). Asterisked summaries of panelist presentations were prepared by the CSIS study team
based on the panelists’ oral presentations and a review of the conference transcript. Panelists were then offered
the opportunity to review the study team’s characterization of their remarks for accuracy.

27

• The 2010 QDR benefitted from having a core leadership team that had played very prominent
roles in past QDRs. This might have been the first “first term” QDR team of political appointees
that had a high level of previous QDR experience. This dynamic manifested in two ways:
o Michele Flournoy managed to convince Secretary Gates (who had not presided over a
QDR) of its utility as a tool to implement his vision and drive change. This was no small
task. Secretary Gates was several years into a highly successful tenure and had already
established his own processes, and had a proven track record of making hard defense
decisions (e.g. FCS, F-22, DDG-1000 etc.)
o The QDR leadership team in OSD Policy – Flournoy, James Miller, Kathleen Hicks –
understood the importance of getting the QDR Terms of Reference (TOR) right. It was a
very good and concise outline of the key issues, the approach behind the use of
scenarios and the force-planning methodology; and a clear outline as to the overall
governance process. The organization of the 2010 QDR matched up pretty well with the
organization of the TOR.

o Key Point: Ensuring the QDR Terms of Reference has the Secretary’s early buy-in is
crucially important.

• The 2010 QDR was notable for its clear focus on current conflicts. Secretary Gates did not have
much patience for long-term naval gazing when well over a hundred thousand troops were in
harm’s way. So much of the QDR is spent assessing the sufficiency of today’s force in the context
of the need to “prevail in today’s wars.” This decision was right and proper for a Secretary
charged with oversight of two ongoing wars.

o Key Point: Wartime QDRs should focus on ongoing conflicts as well as future
challenges.

• In a similar way the 2010 QDR focused on “Preserving and Enhancing” the All-Volunteer force as
a core defense objective—elevating discussions of how to sustain the force in a way that
previous QDRs had not.

o One challenge the 2010 QDR team faced in this area was working with actors in the
military personnel and readiness space across the DOD enterprise that had little
awareness of or experience in previous QDRs.

o Key Point: If the 2014 QDR attempts to deal with some of defense enterprise
management issues like the unsustainable growth of health care and benefits, it will
be critically important for the Secretary to make the importance of the QDR clear to
those OSD and service organizations not typically involved in them.

• The 2010 QDR was also notable for including a sizeable section on the issue of risk. But this
element of the strategy was not as integrated as it should have been.

o Key Point: The 2014 QDR should deal explicitly with the question of how to
understand strategic risk. This element of the defense strategy should be “owned” by

28

civilian policymakers and the Secretary. It is not appropriate for uniformed officials to
drive discussions about “strategic” risk.

• The force-sizing and shaping construct was an output of some sophisticated modeling that
DASDs David Ochmanek and Dan Chiu led in developing. It used multiple “integrated security
constructs”— different combinations of plausible scenarios designed to test the force’s capacity
to deal with overlapping missions.

o In this way the 2010 QDR went arguably further than previous efforts in terms of overall
scope and the time horizon. For example some of the ISCs included steady-state
deterrence, overseas presence, and security force assistance missions aggregated
together over a number of years, with contingencies embedded within.

• However, the sophistication of the force-sizing construct made it difficult to fully express in an
unclassified document.

• This potentially points to the need for subsequent QDRs to more fulsomely employ the ability to
generate classified portions of the formal QDR report to Congress. The author does not believe
the QDR legislation that requires the entire report to be unclassified.

• For the 2010 QDR some of the specific congressional requirements were met by sending
classified documents to the Hill, but it is worth considering integrating a classified appendix into
the actual QDR report. Such an appendix could go into much greater detail on the specific
scenarios used, the assumptions employed, and the risks inherent in choosing a particular force
architecture or set of defense policies.

• It is possible that many of the critics of the QDR, had they seen the details of what was done in
terms of the force sizing and shaping construct, would have understood more of what DOD was
doing in terms of using ISCs etc.

• Moreover, a classified component of the QDR could be disseminated within DOD, and could
provide better and more specific guidance to the Services and the COCOMs, who will typically
interpret the unclassified QDR in “creative ways” during the next budget cycle, or when
developing other guidance (e.g. GEF, GDF etc.). A formal classified component of the QDR could
prevent months of debating “first principles” based on what an unclassified QDR really “meant
to say.”

o Key Point: The 2014 QDR should include a classified component that is formally
integrated into the QDR report to Congress, and can be leveraged inside DOD to
disseminate key implementation guidance.

Ultimately the core challenge with QDRs is that they generally try to be multiple things to multiple
audiences, QDRs are:

1. An enterprise-wide long-term strategy document
2. An important near-term lever for the current FYDP and budget cycle

29

3. A Secretary’s personal precision guided munition
4. A critical public relations and strategic communications document
5. A response to specific Congressional legislation

o Key Point: It is unreasonable to expect QDRs to satisfy all five of these.

The author observed the development of the 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance while on the National
Security Council staff at the White House.

• The DSG was an excellent product—short, precise, and some clear decisions made. This clarity
was necessitated by the nearly $500 billion in cuts prompted by the Budget Control Act and the
near certainty of further cuts in the future.

o Key Point: The budget pressure probably helped provide discipline and urgency to the
review process (e.g. similar to the Base Force and Bottom-Up Review processes after
the Cold War).

• The DSG process was also notable for the degree to which the President got involved. By the
author’s count he held 3 Oval Office meetings with key players, in addition to a full National
Security Council session.

• No President has been so involved in a Pentagon defense review in recent history, so that
additional level of Presidential scrutiny gave the document some cohesion and refinement that
might not have otherwise been there.

o Key Point: The author’s preference for the 2014 QDR would be to follow the example
of the DSG in terms of being very concise and precise in terms of the issues, and
couple this public document with a classified report that goes into specific detail with
issue-by-issue argumentation and criteria for implementation.

M. Elaine Bunn7

I’ll address 2 issues:
1) insights from 2010 QDR process,
2) this QDR’s inclusion of nuclear, missile defense, space, and cyber issues

1) After the 2010 QDR, OSD Policy asked NDU to provide them some lessons learned to pass on to the
new team; Vince Manzo and I conducted non-attribution interviews with participants --from various
parts of OSD—OSDP, AT&L and CAPE – as well as JS, and services. I plan to relay the main points.
o The project reminded me of Edith Wharton’s opening line in Ethan Frome:
"I had the story, bit by bit, from various people, and, as generally happens in such cases,
each time it was a different story."

7
The opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this paper are those of the author, and do not necessarily
reflect the views of the National Defense University, the U.S. Department of Defense or any other agency of the
U.S. Government.

30

o So if you hear something and think, “that wasn’t my experience in the 2010 QDR,” rest assured
it was somebody’s.
o Obviously, the context surrounding each QDR is unique. But there are some issues and tensions
that keep coming up in QDRs, and may be useful address those for the next one.

• High-level ownership: Every QDR team needs observable high-level (that is, Secretary or Deputy
Secretary) buy-in and support. While some have opined that QDRs are massive wasters of time, we
have to do them; and high-level ownership shows that the goat rope is worth doing, that all the
hours spent will be considered by and important to decision-makers; it’s the reason to cooperate in
a difficult endeavor. Most interviewees thought the 2010 QDR had that buy-in and the resulting
value-added to senior-level officials.
o The 2010 QDR was unique in that the Obama administration’s first Secretary of Defense was a
holdover from the Bush administration. So Secretary Gates had already articulated priorities for
the Department of Defense (DoD) in his Foreign Affairs essay, the 2008 National Defense
Strategy, and other public speeches, and had already created an internal process for developing
policy and strategy. Secretary Gates was already using the “small group, large group, and large
group plus” structure to review strategic issues; a number of new officials for the 2010 QDR
said they integrated themselves into this process rather than creating new ones.
o This time, the constellation is the opposite: New SecDef, but holdover of many of the other
folks in OSD involved in the last QDR (though often in different positions) – in Policy alone, you
have Jim Miller, Kath Hicks, Dan Chiu, Christine Wormuth, David Ochmanek This time, the issue
will be how to ensure that Sen Hagel, if he’s confirmed, buys in and OWNS the process. In
addition, there’s getting buy-in from the new folks across OSD, JS and the services – from the
top to the bottom – while at the same time taking advantage of the experienced voices from the
last QDR. As one person said, “you need someone that has run through this jungle before and
understands the process.”
o Many interviewees said – even in interviews a couple of years ago – that a contracting defense
budget likely would set the context for the next QDR. Probably a reason the next SecDef will
HAVE to be heavily involved.
o Related to that high-level ownership: TOR - One interviewee said that Secretary Gates
established ownership of the QDR by signing the Terms of Reference (TOR). But the interviewee
acknowledged that this approach dragged out the TOR drafting process, frontloaded a lot of
decisions, and triggered arguments over almost every word. But enabling the QDR team to
“jump off a higher launch pad” was worth it, they thought.
o SecDef Gates made clear that he was driving the QDR, and that he and USDP Flournoy would be
the only ones with the authority to say what would and would not be decided within the
process. It's problematic when every DoD official – civilian and military – promises to address
every issue in the QDR. That creates unrealistic expectations that cannot possibly be met.

• Outside messaging/Inside Guidance: The QDR Report has dual purposes; it must provide guidance
for internal DoD planning while also communicating U.S. defense policy and strategy to Congress,
the U.S. public, the broader analytical community, and other countries. These purposes are in
tension with one another. It’s the tradeoff between capturing complexity, and communicating
policy in a comprehensible way. As one interviewee said, “a message to the world can’t be a
document that provides good guidance” in preparing DoD to analyze and plan. The 2010 QDR team
developed a force planning construct that it perceives as more suitable for the complexity of the

31

contemporary security world, but which was not conducive to a “bumper sticker” explanation. As a
result, internal and external reactions to and comprehension of the new construct have been mixed.

• Differing goals and objectives: Not surprisingly, different organizations involved in the QDR
possessed different goals, perspectives, and processes and have incentives to protect organizational
equities.
o An example was OSD Policy’s efforts to introduce a new analytical methodology for defense
planning.
o Developing a more flexible analytical process would inevitably reduce the services’ influence
over the assumptions, data, and force requirements that underpin the defense planning
scenarios. Recognizing that the services likely would resist this change, OSDP’s strategy was to
foster transparency and open discussions within DoD about altering the assumptions and
planning scenarios. The interviewee said that debating disagreements, hosting inclusive
discussions and “breaking bread” with counterparts in the Joint Staff while discussing
differences over analytical issues was an effective approach to instituting change. In some cases,
they were able to persuade others about the merits of the new analytical approach, and when
they were not, they at least explained the rationale underlying their decisions.
o It may not surprise you that interviewees from the services and Joint Staff had different views.
Some said that OSDP was not transparent about the new scenario assumptions and that OSDP’s
assumptions were privileged over others. But despite these impressions, the same interviewees
said that their analytical counterpoints in OSDP were reasonable, patient, and knowledgeable.
These reactions demonstrate that changes impacting other organizations’ equities and influence
will face resistance, but transparency and building personal relationships can mitigate these
challenges.

• But there’s a limit to that. Several interviewees from the services admitted that their institutional
goal is to come out of the QDR process without losing resources—and recognized that this goal is
inconsistent with a strategic review’s goal of assessing if “we’re producing the capacity and
capability the Nation requires.” Unfortunately, the QDR process pits the services against each other
in a competition for resources. As long as it does so, they noted, each will enter the review trying to
wear a force-field because that is “the nature of cats and dogs.”

• Transparency and building personal relationships can mitigate but not eliminate frictions when
attempting to institute changes that impact other organizations’ equities and influence.

• Cabal vs Committee: There is a tradeoff between an inclusive and exclusive QDR process.
o The 2010 QDR sought to balance that, but many OSDP interviewees said it leaned heavily
toward inclusiveness and transparency.
o This approach yielded several intangible benefits, such as cultivating communities of interest for
emerging strategic issues and networks that have helped with QDR implementation.
o Yet some interviewees said that it also enabled organizations to challenge QDR analyses before
they were fully fleshed out or ready for prime time.
o And of course, transparency and inclusiveness are subjective.
o Someone from OSDP said that they always circulated slides to the larger group for comments
before taking them to the Secretary. But an interviewee from the services complained that they

32

often only had one day to review and comment on slides before they went to senior decision-
makers, and even when OSDP started circulating slides earlier, it often ignored comments.

• Insufficient Analytic tools vs overanalysis.
o Some interviewees thought OSDP needed its own analytical capabilities; another questioned
whether the QDR puts too many resources toward quantitative analysis, both inside and
contract, arguing that principals typically made big decisions before seeing analytical results.
Many saw qualitative exercises as a complement to the formal analytical process during the
2010 QDR.
o Many of those we interviewed said that tabletop games – essentially discussion exercises with a
scenario or several variations – were integral to raising awareness of and consensus on the
severity of emerging Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) challenges, and for addressing issues such
as cyber operations and ISR – that is, issues on which senior leaders needed insight, but the
defense community did not – and probably still does not – yet know how to analyze.

Strategic capabilities in QDR
2) Second set of issues: this QDR, arguably for the first time ever, will include nuclear, missile defense,
space and cyber – instead of their being covered in separate studies, à la the NPR and BMDR of four
years ago.
• This time, because this is a second-term QDR, I gather that it won’t go back to the basics or
change the underlying objectives of the first-term NPR or BMDR, or the space or cyber policy of
the last few years, but rather will “refresh” implementation results. I could imagine, for instance,
the QDR looking at what the role of globally-deployable nuclear weapons is in broader extended
deterrence and assurance of allies, including in Asia. Or for Missile Defense – both homeland and
in theaters – the question of ‘How much is enough?’
• For all these strategic capabilities, QDR leaders will have the challenge of figuring out the analytic
framework.
• Seems to me that the most likely of the unlikely scenarios where nuclear weapons may actually be
used is if someone else uses them in a regional scenario that escalates from a conventional crisis
or conflict-- either because of miscalculation or desperation.
• It raises the analytic issues of how to think about these capabilities in conventional scenarios
against potential adversaries where nuclear, cyber or space threats are in the background. These
“strategery” issues are far too often “put in a box” and not examined as part of other larger
national security concerns.
• It’s not as simple as, “if that happens, it’s over to STRATCOM.” If adversaries have these
capabilities, we have to factor in how to deter their use, or fight through if they are used. That has
to be the concern not only of those whose portfolios include strategic capabilities, but those who
buy conventional forces, plan for conventional operations, write policy for dealing with
adversaries and allies in regions wherever these capabilities exist.
• Being organized to coordinate across conventional, nuclear, defenses, space, cyber domains and
functions in crises is something this QDR might explore, to ensure that different organizations
aren't working at cross-purposes (e.g., do pre-delegated cyber operations undercut the messages
that the President wants to send to the adversary.)
• It's about crisis management and providing capabilities (meaning thoughts and plans and people
and weapons) for presidential options.

33

• And it will certainly be an analytic challenge; I don’t think we know how to model crises like that,
and we certainly don’t know how to model what’s needed to deter or assure – they’re not exactly
quantifiable. Tabletop exercises may give insights, though.
• I found a RAND study of the 1997 (!) QDR as I was preparing for today, which said “ a toolbox of
new analytical tools is needed for evaluation of anticipated new classes of issues.” It also noted
that “decisions were too often carried to closure without regard or thought to the ... cross-
disciplinary implications.” 8
• Four QDRs later, we need to get on with figuring that out – how to integrate strategic capabilities
in the QDR, and how to analyze what’s needed in programmatic terms – all in a challenging budget
environment.

Rudy deLeon*

Sequestration and a change of leadership are two wildcards for the upcoming Quadrennial Defense
Review (QDR). Rudy deLeon turned to past strategic reviews, commenting on those factors that ensured
their success. In 1981, Caspar Weinberger had a “blank sheet of paper exercise,” implementing budgets
under the Reagan administration that created many technologies used today. The Bottom-Up Review of
1993 proved successful, Mr. deLeon argued, because the Secretary of Defense, the chairman of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff, and the Joint Chiefs had an active role in producing it. Secretary William Cohen’s strategic
review resulted from a meeting at the National Defense University with the Joint Chiefs and the
chairman, the combatant commanders, and the president in attendance. Finally, Mr. deLeon recalled
the QDR under Secretary Robert Gates, which focused on U.S. involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan
rather than the normal procedure of focusing on future rounds of budget requests.

Mr. deLeon argued that similar factors should carry over to this QDR. First, the Department of Defense
(DoD) should focus on guiding policy after the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. Obviously, this
includes the rebalance to the Pacific region, but also North Africa and other areas where the U.S.
expects to deploy military forces. Second, policy guidance requires re-thinking how to sustain the all-
volunteer force in the long-term. Third, the QDR should address the problems in weapons acquisition,
particularly of moving from research to production. Without resolving this, the United States will fail to
modernize its inventory. Finally, DoD must deal with the growing costs in operations and maintenance
(O&M), an expensive account that increases more than any other part of the defense budget. Failure to
do so would result in a reduction of U.S. force structure.

Mr. deLeon concluded that consensus amongst the new Secretary of Defense, the chairman, and the
Joint Chiefs could solve these problems surrounding the upcoming QDR.

Jim Thomas*

Jim Thomas argued that there is no worse way of making good strategy than a quadrennial defense
review, given the number of people involved and the diversity of audiences. The result is a document

8
“Quadrenniel Defense Review Analysis: A Retrospective Look at Joint Staff Participation,” by John Schrader,
Leslie Lewis and Roger Allen Brown, 1999, RAND NDRI, available at
http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/documented_briefings/2007/DB236.pdf

34

filled with obvious statements reflective of the lowest common denominator around which relevant
parties could agree. This does not constitute a strategy.

Mr. Thomas then noted that there has been great continuity in strategic reviews, dating back to 1993.
For example, QDRs has been concerned about WMD and asymmetric warfare threats since the 1990s.
Mr. Thomas argued that this indicates consensus on the general strategic direction of the country;
however, the difficulty of formulating actionable steps to achieve our objectives remains.

Furthermore, there are limits to what can be achieved in the QDR. Mr. Thomas stated that no QDR has
had a notable impact on force structure - with the notable exception of increasing special operations
forces (SOF) in 2006 - since the Bottom-Up Review of 1993, as force structure decisions have been
driven largely by budget and wartime necessity. Nonetheless, if the United States wants to remain a
global superpower, it must maintain the principle of concurrency, the capability to conduct at least two
contingencies – although multiple contingencies may be re-defined as punitive actions rather than
canonical major combat operations.

Mr. Thomas continued, noting that QDRs could be more helpful in shaping the force, rather than
attempting to size it, especially if they can offer a compelling vision of future conflicts and critical
operational challenges for which US and allied military forces should prepare. The challenge for any
QDR is to forecast the strategic environment 20 years out while remaining relevant to nearer term
challenges. Mr. Thomas recalled working on the 2006 QDR, which focused on offering recommendations
for managing four concrete problems, which were seen as enduring challenges stretching from the
present and persisting well into the future.

Next, Mr. Thomas underscored the criticality of DoD’s most senior leaders driving change rather than
looking to bottom up bureaucratic approaches to offer changes to the status quo. The involvement of
senior officials, with the authority to make tradeoffs in roles and capabilities should guide the process
and direct staffs to conduct more detailed analyses once agreements in principle are reached on the
broader issues. In the absence of such senior-level participation, bureaucratic protectionism will prevail
and the QDR are likely to simply preserve the status quo.

The upcoming QDR might draw lessons from the 2006 QDR given both were second-term QDRs and
represented inflection points (2006 being the first conducted in war and 2014 being the first that might
begin to look beyond wars in Iraq and Afghanistan). If this is the case, Thomas advised the upcoming
QDR to operationalize the 2012 Defense Strategic Guidance (DSG), which he argued set out a reasonable
strategic direction for DoD, although it may need some refinement. The QDR could then be used as an
alignment process to bridge the gap between the strategic parameters of the DSG and DoD’s program of
record.

35

Panel 2: Unique Challenges Facing DOD under Budgetary Pressures

Gordon Adams

Slide 1

36

Slide 3

37

Slide 5

38

Slide 7

39

Slide 9

40

David J. Berteau*

David Berteau began by noting DoD’s demonstrated ability to execute fiscally disciplined, long-term
programming that reflects the Department’s future investment plans. As a result, DoD historically has
had a better baseline for managing a changing fiscal reality than any other agency, he said.

Reflecting on Todd Harrison’s remarks, Mr. Berteau observed that the internal cost growth in the O&M
and personnel accounts are already increasing the pressure on investment (especially R&D and
procurement) such that the latter accounts will occupy only 20 percent (combined) of the defense
budget if current trends continue. This level of spending would be insufficient to implement the 2012
DSG and would likely result in a force capable of conducting few missions beyond homeland defense.
Mr. Berteau expressed his concern that these issues were not being addressed by the internal guidance
documents in current circulation within the Department. Independent of sequestration or BCA caps,
DoD is ignoring FY2014 and beyond at its peril, he said.

Turning to the impact on the defense industrial base, Mr. Berteau noted that the major primes are well
positioned to survive this age of fiscal uncertainty, based on their earnings reports and calls with Wall
Street analysts; however, the second and third tier suppliers are far more vulnerable, and DoD does not
have a sustainable policy for supporting them over the long-term. This issue will be particularly evident
in services contracts, which will be disproportionately impacted by the deferral of contracts stemming
from sequestration.

41

Mr. Berteau underscored the necessity – and difficulty – of addressing the execution and
implementation during the QDR process. “Strategy is fine [and it is necessary for setting priorities], but
until you can implement it and execute it, it’s really just a bunch of words,” he concluded.

Todd Harrison

Why This Drawdown
is Different

Todd Harrison

42

DoD Base Budget and End Strength

Slide 2

Budget Share of Military Personnel Costs

43


(FY01-FY12): 4.2%


Slide 4


FY13 Budget Request (w/ Reforms): 0.3%

(FY01-FY12): 4.2%


44

Three Options for Military Personnel Costs
Reduce End Reduce Cost Increase Budget
Strength Growth Share
President’s Request (Initial BCA Caps)
FY21 DoD Budget: $618B $618B $618B
Military Personnel Budget Share: 34% 34% 36%
Growth in Cost per Troop: 2.6% 1.9% 2.6%
Active End Strength: 1,319,000 1,401,000 1,401,000

Sequestration-Level Cuts
Military Personnel Budget Share: 34% 34% 40%

Slide 6

Budget Share of O&M Costs

45


(FY01-FY12): 2.7%

Slide 8

(FY12-FY17): 1.9%

(FY01-FY12): 2.7%

46

Three Options for O&M Costs
Reduce End Reduce Cost Increase Budget
Strength Growth Share
President’s Request (Initial BCA Caps)
O&M Budget Share: 31% 31% 37%

Sequestration Level Cuts
O&M Budget Share: 31% 31% 40%
Growth in Cost per Troop: 2.5% -0.4% 2.5%

Slide 10

Bottom Line

Hard Choices:
If DoD wants to maintain end strength at currently
planned levels but cannot reduce the growth rate of
personnel and O&M costs below their historical
norms then personnel and O&M costs could
consume 80% of the budget by FY21.

47

Michael E. O’Hanlon*

Michael O’Hanlon began his presentation by identifying what he considers to be the basic tenets of U.S.
defense strategy: a focus on the Middle East and the Western Pacific; a two-contingency capability; a
robust all-volunteer force; and a world-class industrial base. Dr. O’Hanlon then argued that further
programmatic cuts will be required in order to comply with the 2011 Budget Control Act but that these
cuts could be structured in such a way that would maintain consistency with presidential guidance and
preserve key strategic tenets.

For example, Dr. O’Hanlon recommended reducing the active-duty Army to 450,000 and the active-duty
Marine Corps to 160,000. With regard to the Navy, Dr. O’Hanlon proposed Sea Swap for surface
combatants with crews of 200 to 300. This practice is already utilized for mine sweepers and ballistic
missile submarines and, if expanded, would enable a reduction in the fleet from 286 to 270.

For strategic forces, Dr. O’Hanlon suggested that the United States maintain 1,550 warheads until it
secures another treaty with Russia, but advocated a shift in nuclear force structure. He proposed
cutting the ICBM force in half and placing stronger emphasis on the bomber force, which will at any rate
be maintained for conventional missions. Dr. O’Hanlon also recommended uploading the Ohio-class
submarine to full capacity and cutting the fleet to eight.

Next, Dr. O’Hanlon argued that the United States should rethink the F-35’s intended role and mission
set. He advised its use for high-end missions like deterring China in the Western Pacific, not as a
replacement for fourth-generation aircraft. This would require only half of the planes in current plans.

With regard to the all-volunteer force, Dr. O’Hanlon called for compensation reform; retirement reform
with a focus on enhancing equity as well as generating savings; and cost-sharing in TRICARE and other
health programs.

Dr. O’Hanlon concluded with a suggestion for U.S. strategy in the Persian Gulf. Instead of using
expensive and inefficient aircraft carriers, he proposed largely placing capabilities on land in allied
territory. He estimated that implementing these proposals could result in approximately $200B in
savings over 10 years.

Keynote Address

Stephen J. Hadley*

Stephen Hadley recommended that, in conducting the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR), defense
planners begin with a broadly defined vision of the security environment within which the United States
will need to operate in twenty years. This vision should not look solely at political-military issues, but
also at demographics, food and energy security, climate change, health pandemics, and other issues that
could bear upon the future security environment.

The QDR should then develop a strategy to meet the challenges of the future security environment. Mr.
Hadley observed that, in the Cold War, the United States had a strategy but struggled with developing

48

tactics; now, the United States has tactics with no strategy. There may be no single overarching strategy
– two or three different strategies may be required – but, at any rate, the QDR should not move from
sketching the threat environment directly to policies, programs, and force structures. Furthermore,
Hadley stated that the QDR can be sure to get most of the strategy wrong and should thus “prepare to
be unprepared.” Failure to keep this challenge in mind or to conduct the QDR in this systematic manner
will almost certainly result in a force that is suited only to fighting the last war.

Defense planners must then consider the types of capabilities that will be needed to implement the
strategy and to meet the challenges our nation will face. These capabilities should not be confined to
military resources, but should include the capabilities of U.S. allies, other U.S. departments and
agencies, universities, charitable foundations, and private business.

Turning to the issue of current fiscal challenges, Mr. Hadley argued that the QDR should be written in a
fiscally unconstrained environment. He referred to Secretary Robert Gates’ comment that the 2010 QDR
was informed by fiscal realities, but not constrained by them. Mr. Hadley then emphasized the need to
modernize U.S. forces, which will require substantial additional resources. There is a price to pay for not
re-capitalizing, one that in the long run will be much greater, he noted. The QDR can be a helpful tool in
balancing capability requirements and resources if it describes how to provide security in the projected
threat environment without fiscal constraints and then displays clearly the cuts needed to
accommodate fiscal realities and the risks those cuts will produce.

Next, Mr. Hadley outlined the three biggest challenges for the upcoming QDR. First, we must rethink the
nation’s counterterrorism strategy, which has become tactical and not strategic. The emphasis on
drones has become a political problem for U.S. allies and a recruiting tool for terrorists. It does not
address the change in the threat, which has moved from being Al-Qaida centric to Al-Qaida affiliates.
Mr. Hadley recommended that the QDR consider reestablishing counterterrorism partnerships, which
the United States will need to rely more upon to maintain regional stability as it withdraws from the
Middle East, and the strategic communications challenge.

Second, the QDR must rethink the policy on safe havens in the Middle East. Mr. Hadley challenged the
popular notion that a decade of war is coming to an end, pointing to events in Libya, Syria, and Mali, and
instead noted that only US direct military involvement is ending. Mr. Hadley recommended renewing
intelligence partnerships in the region and finding ways to better ensure the safety of U.S. civilians,
given that they will be required to perform missions in insecure environments.

Mr. Hadley explained that these two challenges share a common feature: the Department of Defense
(DOD) needs the resources of non-DOD agencies and departments in order to have an effective strategy.
Therefore, these agencies should be involved in the QDR process. DoD should additionally utilize the
QDR process to advocate on behalf of these partner agencies for funding and to support their training.

The third challenge will be managing anti-access/area denial environments. Mr. Hadley stated that the
military understands the problem and knows how to solve it using in particular more naval forces. The
challenge, though, will be getting the military’s civilian masters to fund this approach.

In closing, Mr. Hadley advocated bringing Congress into the QDR process. DOD needs congressional
support for funding, so it could use the QDR to build that support in Congress, he argued. Mr. Hadley

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also recommended conducting the QDR and QDR Independent Review in parallel as well as using the
recommendations of the last QDR and Independent Review panel as a point of departure for the
upcoming review.

Panel 3: The Future International Security Environment

Mathew Burrows*

Mathew Burrows began his presentation by identifying the areas of the general strategic environment
that he believed had changed since the previous QDR and that would thus be of particular importance
for the upcoming QDR. First, Dr. Burrows noted the accelerating decline of the West. He predicted that
in 2030, Japan, North America, and Europe will comprise about 28 to 34 percent of global GDP, a
decrease from the current 55 percent.

A second change is the shift away from the state towards the individual. Dr. Burrows explained that,
because expanding access to disruptive technologies, individuals now have the ability to cause violence
on a scale that was previously reserved to the state. This does not mean that the state is going away, but
that there are more pressures on it. Given this shift, DoD must consider the importance of individuals in
its calculations as well as the influence of criminal networks.

Third, Dr. Burrows noted the threat of resource stress and population explosion in a significant portion
of the world. Burrows warned that these areas also suffer from a lack of governance, which undercuts
their ability to manage scarcity.

Finally, Dr. Burrows called for defense planners to consider the impact of discontinuous change and
referenced Maynard Keynes’ observation that people are unwilling to think about the future as different
from the present. Planners should recognize that unlikely occurrences might actually be interconnected
events, he argued, and furthermore, should consider how seemingly minor events might in fact have
major impacts. A final recommendation in dealing with discontinuous change is to recognize that the
system is not stable given these transitions. For this reason, leadership will be of great importance.

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Michael S. Chase9

9
The views expressed in this presentation are the author’s alone; they do not necessarily reflect those of the Naval
War College, Navy, or Department of Defense.

51

Slide 2

52

Slide 4

53

Slide 6

54

Slide 8

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Peter W. Singer*

Peter Singer opened his remarks by noting some broad trends that are likely to impact the future
security environment, including WMD proliferation, the rise of China both economically and militarily,
global population patterns, which could greatly increase the likelihood of urban warfare, and technology
exponential pace of advancement.

Technology moves rapidly, Dr. Singer observed, and as such, it is difficult to incorporate into strategic
planning. For example, since the 2001 QDR, the United States has expanded its unmanned aerial
systems from zero to over 8,000. And in the time it takes to conduct the QDR alone, computing power is
expected to double.

Dr. Singer then identified several additional technological issues that the upcoming QDR must address if
it is to prepare for future conflicts. In general, Dr. Singer made the point that the US position in this QDR
is akin to Great Britain’s in the 1920s, how to balance global commitments and responsibilities in a time
of great political, economic, and technologic change. Unlike that period, however, the barriers to entry
for advanced technology are much lower, as well as non-state groups far more relevant.

First, the upcoming QDR must be mindful of potential “game changers” in technology, those akin to the
computer in 1980 or Predator in 1995, not science fiction, but looming to create powerful new
capabilities and questions in the period the QDR should be planning for. Dr. Singer addressed a few

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technologies of note: robotics, cyber capabilities, nanotechnology, directed energy, and 3D printing all
hold the potential to create disruptions in tactics and doctrine.

Second, the upcoming QDR must protect new developments from current fiscal constraints and poor
investments. Dr. Singer noted that with restricted budgets, funding for newer technologies often suffer
versus current programs of record and research and development risks being heavily cut.

Third, the upcoming QDR Dr. Singer advised the United States to spread the risk in development,
hedging against capabilities that could become outdated before they can be deployed. In addition, the
United States should sustain competition in new keys areas of the acquisitions process and consider
ways of keeping defense acquisitions on pace with developments in the civilian market.

Dr. Singer then argued that the United States should ensure that its military personnel system is linked
to its strategic priorities, incentivizing proficiency on new technologies, rather than professionally
punishing those working in new fields. Finally, the upcoming QDR should address how to select those
technologies that have long half-lives and can be re-used in new and innovative ways (akin to the way
the B-52 has stayed relevant across generations) versus those that are merely the best of the last
generation.

Dr. Singer advised against thinking of technology as solving all problems or lifting the fog of war. Rather,
Dr. Singer explained that technological developments pose new problems and new questions that
should be considered in the upcoming QDR.

Micah Zenko

I am honored to have the opportunity to speak here at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies, and particularly on this panel with brilliant national security analysts who have informed my
thinking for many years. I plan to briefly address three factors that are shaping the future international
security environment: the increasing socialization of threats to the private sector, the influence of U.S.
behavior on the international security environment, and how policymakers perceive and characterize
national security threats.

Private Sector

American wealth and employment opportunities are increasingly concentrated in the private sector
versus the federal government. Since 1990, public sector wealth as a percentage of Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) and employment has only marginally increased following decades of constant growth
beginning in the 1950s. Meanwhile, the relative size and importance of the private sector—in terms of
innovation, economic growth, and critical infrastructure—have grown significantly. Given its role and
influence, how—and to what extent—should the U.S. government secure and protect the private sector
from a range of twenty-first century security threats? Or, on the flip side of that argument, how should
the government expect the private sector to protect itself?

For example, commercial shipping faces the threat of maritime piracy, which some experts argue cost
the global economy nearly $7 billion annually. According to the International Maritime Bureau (IMB),

57

piracy has reached a five-year low. In 2012, 297 ships were attacked, compared to 439 in 2011. At the
same time, the number of people taken hostage declined from 802 in 2011 to 585 in 2012. The IMB’s
director noted, “The continued presence of the navies is vital to ensuring that Somalia piracy remains
low. This progress could easily be reversed in naval vessels were withdrawn from the area.”

Since 2008, the U.S. Navy has contributed ships, aircraft, and a significant number of staff to the
counterpiracy effort. Equally important, the United States developed and paid for a universal line of
communication called Combined Enterprise Regional Information Exchange System – Maritime
(CENTRIXS-M). This system allows for the command and control of a multi-national coalition; nations
with a common interest and information exchange agreements are now able to share classified
information and conduct operations across various fleets. The financial costs of CENTRIXS-M are not
insignificant; the main burden to the U.S. Navy is the dedication of four or five platforms to this mission,
when roughly 100 of its 285 ships can be deployed at any point in time.

What security requirements does the U.S. government impose on U.S. flagged ships and/or non-U.S.
flagged ships that receive U.S. financing, insurance, or risk re-insurance? Not much—which is a mistake.
As Andrew Shapiro, assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, noted in March
2012: “To date, not a single ship with privately contracted armed security personnel aboard has been
pirated. Not a single one.” The going rate for a four-person security team to protect a commercial ship
for a forty-day transit through high-risk waters in East Asia is $65,000. Or, as General Petraeus testified
in April 2009: "We need the maritime shipping companies to do more than they have. We started off by
saying if you would just speed up when the pirates approach, that will help; if you take evasive action,
that's even better; and if you un-bolt the ladder that allows the pirates to climb onto your ship before
you set sail, you get extra credit for that.” These are the sort of preventive protection measures that the
U.S. government recommends for commercial shippers. If they want the U.S. military to assist in their
protection, preventive activities should be explicitly mandated.

Similarly, a number of U.S. industries—most recently financial institutions—make two complimentary
demands of the U.S. government: (1) protection from complex and sophisticated cyberattacks, and (2)
imposition of no mandatory protection regulations. Non-covert federal spending on cybersecurity is set
to grow by nearly 9 percent per year over the next five years, increasing from just over $9 billion in 2011
to an estimated $14 billion in 2016—this does not include cybersecurity spending in the black budgets.
Meanwhile, a study by Ponemon Institute argues that utilities and energy companies could protect
themselves from 95 percent of all cyberattacks—which is the highest level that is plausibly achievable—
if they increased average annual cybersecurity spending seven-fold, from $46 million to $345 million.
That would be a tremendous price to pay. But someone is going to have to pay to protect the private
sector from malicious cyberattacks that will only become more frequent and sophisticated over time,
and there should be a broader conversation about how to share this financial burden.

U.S. Influence and the International Security Environment

From first-hand experience on many similar panels over the years, the United States is often described
as existing in a vacuum, in which it is simply threatened by external factors. In this conception, the
United States does not have the agency to shape the world; rather, the world “happens” to the United
States.

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I have spent much of the past five years studying America’s increasing use of targeted killings, which are
overwhelmingly conducted by drones. Although the Obama administration claims that non-battlefield
targeted killings comply with all applicable domestic and international laws, it will not specifically
acknowledge which body of international law applies regarding the laws of armed conflict and
international humanitarian law. The Obama administration will only admit that the laws are “reinforcing
and complimentary.” It is important to emphasize that no other country—except for perhaps Israel—
agrees with the U.S. interpretation of the legality and scope of its targeted killings. Moreover, despite
claims by senior White House counterterrorism adviser John Brennan that every legitimate target poses
“an imminent threat of violent attack against the United States,” this simply does not reflect the full
range of individuals killed by targeted killings.

The Obama administration has repeatedly acknowledged that, as the lead actor in using drones for
targeted killings, it is setting precedents that other nations could follow. This is an important point to
emphasize since there are an increasing number of U.S. government officials and national security
analysts at think tanks and in academia who contend that the United States does not exert normative
influence on the behavior of other states. If this were the case, then the Pentagon and State
Department could fire its communications staff and shut down its websites. However, the Obama
administration recognizes that the way in which they think about, use, and justify targeted killings will
shape the behavior of other states, and potentially nonstate, actors.

In January 2012, Peter Singer published an op-ed in the New York Times capturing much of what I hear
regarding drones and targeted killings. Singer wrote: “Last year, I met with senior Pentagon officials to
discuss the many tough issues emerging from our growing use of robots in war. One of them asked, ‘So,
who then is thinking about all this stuff?’” In light of someone “thinking about all this stuff,” the scope
and intensity of drone strikes has increased markedly during the Obama administration. And how the
United States uses its drones—with little transparency or constraints—could justify how emerging drone
powers use them as well. This would be a world in which targeted killings occur with impunity against
anyone deemed an “enemy” by states or nonstate actors, without accountability for legal justification,
civilian casualties, and proportionality. Since drones have inherent advantages over other weapons
platforms—persistence, responsiveness, and no risks to pilots—we could see increased uses of lethal
force by states outside of its sovereignty territory that undermine core U.S. interests, such as preventing
armed conflict, promoting human rights, and strengthening international legal regimes.

The United States is potentially playing a similar role in shaping the international security environment
through offensive cyberattacks, or those that achieve kinetic-like effects. Since 2006, according to the
National Military Strategy for Cyberspace Operations, it has been U.S. policy that the "[Pentagon] will
conduct kinetic missions to preserve freedom of action and strategic advantage in cyberspace" that "can
be either offensive or defensive and used in conjunction with other mission areas." However, there is
little clarity about many aspects of U.S. offensive cyber capabilities, including what those capabilities
are, who authorizes cyberattacks, and the rules of engagement (assuming one can attribute the source
of an initial attack and identify a proportional target). A senior U.S. official declared: "Those are always
classified things. It's not helpful to the United States to give a road map to the enemy to know when
something is an attack on the nation and when it is not." This assumes that only the “enemy” watches
what that United States says and does. If all cyber offensive programs remain classified, the United
States cannot engage or normatively influence other actors.

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Threat Inflation

Perhaps the most important factor in shaping the international security environment is how
policymakers—including influencers like think tanks, academia, lobbying groups, and the media—
perceive and characterize threats. It is my belief that many of these actors engage in chronic habit of
threat inflation not only for their own bureaucratic and material self-interests, but also because it is the
accepted conventional wisdom in the Beltway and beyond that the United States is declining power in
the face of rising foreign threats.

For example, last year, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Martin Dempsey testified before
Congress: “I can’t impress upon you that in my personal military judgment, formed over thirty-eight
years, we are living in the most dangerous time in my lifetime, right now.” General Dempsey was born in
1952, and I would politely disagree that the world is more dangerous today than, say, during the Berlin
Crises of 1958 to 1961, or other Cold War crises.

Dempsey also claims—and many apparently agree—that the information age and spread of technology
has increased the likelihood of organizations or individuals using violence. The problem with this
argument is that the world should have witnessed a growth of all forms of conflict as lethal technologies
and modern communications proliferated over the centuries, but, in fact, the opposite has taken place.
We are experiencing a long downward trend in all forms of interpersonal violence, criminal violence,
pogroms, and warfare. The only form of violence that has increased over the past fifty years is suicide;
according to the World Health Organization, global suicide rates between 1950 and 2000 increased by
almost 50 percent for men and 33 percent for women.

Beyond violence, I would argue that the world that the United States inhabits today is a remarkably safe
and secure place. It is a world with greater political freedom, increased economic opportunity, and
longer life expectancy than at virtually any other point in human history. The United States faces no
plausible existential threats, no great power rival, and no near-term competition for the role of global
hegemon. The U.S. military is the most powerful in the world, and will remain unchallenged for the
foreseeable future. The United States should only pursue a grand strategy based upon the most
accurate characterization of the international security climate as possible, in combination with the
resources available. Due to cuts of roughly $350 million over the next ten years, the defense budget is
projected to have low levels of growth, although Congress could demand that the services find
additional savings in the FY2014 budget. In an era of diminished national security spending, the United
States must be honest about which threats are significant, and for which the military is uniquely suited
to respond to. And which threats are neither significant, nor the primary responsibility of the U.S.
military.

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Panel 4: Considerations for the 2014 Quadrennial Defense Review

Barry M. Blechman

A New US Defense
Strategy for a New Era
Military Superiority, Agility,
and Efficiency

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Members of the Defense Advisory Committee

Slide 2

US National Defense Interests
Vital Interests
• Protecting the US homeland from foreign enemies.
• Protecting US allies from attack.
• Ensuring unimpeded access to the global commons.

Conditional Interests
• Intervening in intra-state conflicts to enforce a government’s
responsibility to protect its own citizens from genocide, crimes against
humanity, ethnic cleansing, or grave and systematic war crimes.
• Stabilizing governance in nations to avoid the emergence of new threats
to US interests, such as the establishment of terrorist groups.

“Problems to be managed, not solved”

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Comparative Strengths and Weaknesses
Overwhelming military superiority
• Air
• Sea
• Space
• Special Operations
But not omnipotence. Capabilities to
• Defeat insurgencies,
• Stabilize governance, and
• Ensure security for societies in distant
regions…
…are limited, at best
“This is not because of any deficiencies in, nor malpractices by, the US armed forces. The
task of imposing order, providing good governance, and inculcating democratic values in
foreign, undeveloped societies riven by internal conflicts is simply too hard a task, and not
one for which military forces are particularly well-suited.”

Slide 4

Ten Operating Principles
1. The US owes a huge debt to all those who have served in the nation’s wars,
and particularly to the men and women who have served repeatedly in Iraq
and Afghanistan.

2. The US should implement as a high priority long-standing proposals to utilize
manpower more efficiently; to reform personnel compensation systems; and to
streamline the system used to acquire equipment, goods, and services.

3. The US should maintain space, air, and naval forces superior to those of any
potential adversary.

4. The US should maintain robust and technologically advanced special operations
forces to counter terrorists and criminal enterprises, protect US citizens overseas,
and for other contingencies.

5. Priority in research and development (R&D) budgets, and additional funds, should
be given to basic research and the pursuit of advanced military capabilities.

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Ten Operating Principles (cont’d)
6. The US should continue to exercise global leadership by working cooperatively with
allies and friends to ensure their security, but should strive to ensure that these
nations contribute a proportionate share of the cost of these defense preparations.

7. The US should shift over time from a mind-set that emphasizes static deployments
overseas, relying instead on frequent rotations of expeditionary forces home-based in
the United States in order to exercise jointly with allies, to familiarize themselves with
potential combat theaters, and to demonstrate US resolve and capabilities.

8. The US should strongly resist being drawn into protracted land wars.

9. The US should reduce the size of its nuclear forces as rapidly as possible, preferably
through a new treaty with Russia, and make commensurate reductions in planned
nuclear modernization programs.

10. The US should defer additional deployments of Continental US (CONUS) missile
defenses until relevant technologies mature and seem assured of providing effective
capabilities, but continue to develop cooperative theater missile defense systems with
partners in regions threatened by hostile states with short- and mid-range missiles.

Slide 6

Efficiencies

“If all of these efficiencies
were realized, they would
represent close to $1 trillion,
or almost 20 percent of the
10-year defense budget plan.”

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Budget Levels Considered

Slide 8

Force Structure Implications
High Priorities Lower Priorities
• Near term technology
• Special Operations Forces
development and procurement

• Cyber Warfare capabilities • Army Force Structure

• Basic and Applied Research,
• Active F-16s
especially for ISR and penetrivity
• Classified Funding • Active Lift aircraft

• USMC end-strength
• Next-Generation Bomber

• Most Navy force structure • Navy Cruisers

• Theater Missile Defense • CONUS-based Missile Defense

• Rotational Deployments • Nuclear forces

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Thomas Donnelly*

Thomas Donnelly began by expressing uncertainty with regard to the durability of the Defense Strategic
Guidance (DSG), questioning if the United States would maintain the DSG’s priorities or instead revert to
a more traditional national security strategy following the conclusion of President Barack Obama term in
office.

Mr. Donnelly then noted that, while all QDRs have planned for uncertain conditions, he regards the
future security environment for which the 2014 QDR must plan as particularly uncertain. Defense
planners should hedge against this uncertainty by avoiding irreversible programmatic decisions. With
regard to the nuclear force structure, for example, Mr. Donnelly warned against further reductions,
arguing that domestic nuclear capabilities are difficult to reconstitute and the United States’ deterrence
requirements in the future are uncertain. To Mr. Donnelly, these factors suggest the need for caution in
the implementation of New START programs.

Next, Mr. Donnelly turned to American involvement overseas. With difficult missions and fewer
resources, the United States should reconsider how it develops alliances. Mr. Donnelly suggested that
the United States should work to knit allies together rather than continue to emphasize bilateral
relationships, thus providing a more comprehensive and robust basis for deterrence and assurance.

Finally, Mr. Donnelly noted the need to systematically consider the role defense-industrial base, as well
as civil-military and executive-legislative relations, within the QDR planning process and called upon
those involved to encourage transparency and inclusion. Those involved should also recognize that the
post-World War II consensus on defense has eroded and that the upcoming QDR has a unique
opportunity to bridge the communications gap.

P. Stephen Stanley*

Given the fiscal constraints and strategic changes in the world, Stephen Stanley argued that the
upcoming QDR will be particularly challenging and will need to focus on balancing strategy and
resources. To sharpen the discussion of necessary trade-offs, the QDR should thus focus on a few key
issues.

One issue that must be considered is the force-planning construct. Addressing this issue will require an
identification of those capabilities that must be prioritized as well as a consideration of the roles and
missions of the National Guard and reserve forces. Mr. Stanley noted an evolution in previous QDRs,
from the 2001 1-4-2-1 construct, to 2006’s focus on the baseline capabilities needed to execute two
simultaneous major theater wars, to 2010’s emphasis on capabilities need to execute both the wars in
Iraq and Afghanistan and undefined future contingencies. As these force planning constructs became
progressively more complicated, they made it easier for advocates to find a place to justify their force
structure.

A second issue is the nature of U.S. engagement overseas, which in turn holds implications for force
structure. For this reason, the United States must think about the kinds of missions it wants to conduct
and the types of capabilities that will be needed to execute them. This will also require consideration of

66

alliance relationships and the allied capabilities that the United States will be willing to rely under
further budget constraints.

Finally, Mr. Stanley argued that the next QDR should set general parameters within which the military
service Chiefs can develop fiscally balanced service organizational constructs that reflect their
professional military advice.

Barry Watts

Resource Constraints:

• Since Sept 11, 2001, DoD’s baseline budget’s gone from $297B (FY01) to $530B (FY12)
• Congress & the White House have agreed to reduce DoD’s topline by $475B over 10 years
($48.7B/year)
• The Pentagon hopes to realize another $200B in efficiency savings over 5 years
• Paying for the all-volunteer force: like Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid, the costs of the all-
volunteer force appear unsustainable
• The (revised) sequester could still cut another $489.2 (TY $) over 9 years?) from DoD’s topline

A Pessimistic Prediction:

• By 2016 the national debt will have grown from $16 to 20T

On the One Hand:

• We’re out of Iraq & withdrawing from Afghanistan
• OCO: ~$1.3 trillion (including $47B for MRAPS and another $20B for IED detection)
• Osama bin Laden is dead
• And the U.S. appetite for protracted counterinsurgency & national building conflicts is near zero

On the other hand:

• Al Qaeda and affiliated terrorists continue to threaten Western security:
o The Benghazi attack, the attack on the BP refinery in Algeria, Mali, etc.
o The Taliban, supported by Pakistan, may be growing in strength
• Opportunity cost of Afghanistan & Iraq: ~$1.3T (including $47B for MRAPS and another $20B for
IED detection)
• The procurement holiday of the 1990s largely continued through the 2000s
o Except for the 187 F-22s, all the Air Forces combat aircraft were funded before FY94
• Our West European allies are a declining source of help

Growing Challenges to Unfettered U.S. Access to Critical Regions (e.g., the Persian Gulf and the Western
Pacific) and the Global Commons:

• Nuclear proliferation since 1991 (India, Pakistan, and North Korea)
• The Iranian nuclear program, which could ultimately trigger a nuclear cascade in the Middle East

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• Russia’s development of a new generation of very-low-yield nuclear weapons & doctrine that
envisions their use to “de-escalate” conventional conflicts that threaten Russian’s territorial
integrity or sovereignty
• Have we, as Paul Bracken argues, entered a second nuclear age in which the use of a few low-
yield nuclear weapons becomes thinkable?
• Do the Pakistanis and Indians really understand each other’s nuclear red lines?
o Or is the Indian-Pakistani border the most dangerous in the world?
• China’s growing anti-access/area denial capabilities aimed at denying to the western Pacific by
U.S. carrier battle groups as far east as Guam and putting U.S. forward bases in the region at risk
• Iranian efforts to develop A2/AD capabilities in the Persian Gulf
• Challenges, ranging from G-RAMM to cyber, to America’s precision-centric way of war and post-
World War II approach to overseas power projection
o The spread of non-nuclear precision strike will make power projection with forward-
deployed forces and from overseas bases and ports increasingly difficult and costly
o If the costs in blood and treasure of traditional power projection become great enough,
the United States could be forced to rethink its role in the world

Hard Strategic Choices Lie Ahead:

“Resources are always limited in comparison with our wants, always constraining our actions. (If
they did not, we could do everything, and there would be no problem of strategic choice.)”
— Hitch and McKean, 1960

• Strategic choice involves prioritization: deciding which capability areas to favor with preferential
investment and which to neglect or even abandon
• Not everything can be a priority
o 150 top priorities aren’t a strategy
o The really critical capability areas probably can’t exceed a dozen, and less than ten
would be even better
• Andrew Krepinevich has argued for a strategic policy of assured access, which would give
priority to maintaining access to critical regions and the global commons on which the U.S.
economy and American prosperity depend
o Assured access might well be a long-term guiding policy comparable to the guiding
policy of containment during the Cold War
o But the real test lies in choosing the equipment, forces and capabilities to favor with
preferential investment over time in order to implement assured access and the
willingness to neglect most everything else
o Faced with this very issue during the 2001 strategy review, Andrew Marshall offered this
candidate list:
Reconnaissance precision strike
Air dominance
Undersea warfare
Space
Robotics
Realist combat training

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o The absence of heavy mechanized ground forces pretty much brought the strategy
review to a halt and no consensus within DoD on a short list of critical capability areas
has been achieved since 2001
o I’d probably a couple more capability areas to the candidate 2001 list:
A credible nuclear deterrent
SOF recce-strike
o Cyber is another possibility
o But until you begin making these sorts of implementation choices and pushing them
down to acquisition priorities, operational concepts, and organizational arrangements,
you don’t really have a strategy

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Appendix D: List of Participants

Gordon Adams M. Elaine Bunn
Stimson Center
National Defense University
David Adesnik
Ted Burke
Institute for Defense Analyses
Boeing
Paul Amato
JB Burns
GSA/NMD
BAE Systems, Inc.
Brian Arakelian
Mathew Burrows
OSDP/Strat
Analysis and Production Staff, NIC
David W. Barno
Emily Cashel
Center for a New American Security
American Enterprise Institute
Charlie Benham
Christopher Castelli
Stimson Center
Inside the Pentagon
Jeff Bennett
Michael Chase
Defense Business Board
Naval War College
David J. Berteau
Sunjin Choi
Langham Partners
Barry M. Blechman
Pat Christian
Stimson Center
DPMO
Shawn Brimley
Carolyn Closs-Walford
Center for a New American Security
ARNG G-5
Mike Brown
Lachlan M. Colquhoun
HD&ASA
OSDP/Strat
Scott Buchanan
Laura Cooper
SOLIC/SO&CT
OSD Policy
Victor J. Bunch, Sr.
Anthony Cordesman
CNAS/USMC

70

Jessica L. Cox Bill Greer
ISA/ME ARNG G-5
William Forrest Crain Stephen Hadley
HQDA G-8 RiceHadleyGates LLC
Catherine Dale John J. Hamre
Congressional Research Service Center for Strategic and International Studies
Rudy deLeon Nobutoshi Hanai
Center for American Progress Mitsubishi
Josh DeLong Todd Harrison
DHS/PLCY/SPAR Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
Pete Dillon Shannon Hayden
Atlantic Council APSA/EA
J.R. Drushal Steve Hedrick
Atlantic Council NGB J8
Charles Dunavant David Helvey
USN QDR APSA/EA
Norman Edwards Frank G. Hoffman
JCS/J-8 National Defense University Press
Matthew Fargo Paul Hulley
Center for Strategic and International Studies SO/LIC
Daniel Flynn Eli Jacobs
Office of the Director of National Intelligence Center for Strategic and International Studies
David Forman Andrew Jesmain
Center for a New American Security Booz Allen
Peter M. Gavares Harry Kamain
Rolls-Royce North America, Inc. Department of State
Adam Genest Conor Kantwill
ARNG G-6 Safran USA

71

Mara Karlin Struan MacDonald
OSDP/Strat OSDP/Strat
Kelsey Keating Don Maraska
Defense Business Board USMC
Patrick Kelly Mark S. Massey, Jr.
MCRI Center for Strategic and International Studies
Thomas Kindem Todd McAllister
BAE Systems, Inc. USMC QDR
Van Kinney Esther McClure
GSA/NMD OSDP/Strat
Frank D. Kistler Rhys McCormick
NGB/CF Center for Strategic and International Studies
Otto Kreisher Joe McInnis
AOL Defense/Seapower Magazine USA G-8
Scott Kripowicz Frank McKenzie
Missile Defense Agency USMC QDR
Mark C. Kustra Joe McMenamin
USMC HD&ASA
Steven Kwast Zachary Mears
USAF QDR National Security Staff
Kent Laborde Leo Michel
OSDP/Strat National Defense University
Howie Lind John Milam
FLUOR Dynamis
Lauren Linde Christopher Miller
Center for American Progress SOLIC/SCT
Maxwell Litton Jim Mitre
Saab OSD Policy

72

Alexander H. Montgomery Marsha Porter
GSA/CWMD/CBRND DPMO
Madeline Mortelmans Eric Ridge
OSD Center for Strategic and International Studies
Clark A. Murdock Kimberley A. Roberts
Center for Strategic and International Studies Science Applications International Cooperation
Meggaen Neely John Rossi
Center for Strategic and International Studies USA G-8
John D. Nelson Scott Sanborn
JCS/J-5 Center for Army Analysis
Steve Nicolucci Kelley Sayler
Center for Strategic and International Studies Center for Strategic and International Studies
Daniel J. O’Donohue Brian Schires
USA QDR Rolls-Royce North America
Michael E. O’Hanlon Chip Schrader
Brookings Institution Lockheed Martin
Jean Francois Pactet Geoffery W. Seaver
Center for Strategic and International Studies National Defense University
Jeffrey P. Pellegrino Mark Simakovsky
Center for Strategic and International Studies Office of Senator Mark Warner
Chip Pickett Peter Singer
Renaissance Strategic Advisors Brookings Institution
W. Stephen Piper Bill Smith
Piper Pacific International LMI
Andres Ploompuu David Sobyra
National Guard Review CN&GT
John F. Plumb Daniel Spector
NMD/Space Eurasia Group

73

Baker Spring Jacob Stokes
Heritage Foundation Center for a New American Security
Steve Stanley Jim Thomas
Northrop Grumman Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
Shawn Steene Harlan Ullman
NMD/Space Atlantic Council
Jon Stephenson Larry VanHorn
ARNG G-8 ARNG G-8
Jud Von Kolnitz
USN QDR
Lonn Waters
OSDP/Strat
Barry Watts
Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
Noel Williams
USMC QDR
Micah Zenko
Council on Foreign Relations

74

a report of the csis
energy and national
security program

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Policy
a disciplined approach to forward-looking policymaking

1800 K Street, NW | Washington, DC 20006
Tel: (202) 887-0200 | Fax: (202) 775-3199
E-mail: books@csis.org | Web: www.csis.org
Author
Hisham Akhonbay

August 2012

CHARTING
our future

CSIS Report Preparing for the 2014 QDR

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