Decision Making
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The document discusses decision making and the managerial decision making process. It describes the nature of managerial problems as crisis, non-crisis, or opportunities. It then outlines the 8 step decision making process as identifying the problem, criteria, weighing criteria, developing alternatives, analyzing alternatives, selecting an alternative, implementing, and evaluating. It discusses types of decisions, conditions of certainty, risk and uncertainty. It also covers decision making styles, biases, and creating effective decisions.
Decision Making
- 1. by: Muhammad Rizwan Qamar DECISION MAKING
- 2. Decision Making The process by which managers identify problems and try to resolve them
- 3. NATURE OF MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING Types of problems faced: • Crisis problems Serious: require immediate action • Non-crisis problems Require resolution but not both immediate and important • Opportunity problems Opportunity for organisational gain IF appropriate action taken
- 4. Decision Making • Decision – Making a choice from two or more alternatives. • The Decision-Making Process – Identifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria. – Developing, analyzing, and selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem. – Implementing the selected alternative. – Evaluating the decision’s effectiveness.
- 6. Step 1: Identifying the Problem • Problem – A discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs. • Characteristics of Problems – A problem becomes a problem when a manager becomes aware of it. – There is pressure to solve the problem. – The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the problem.
- 7. Step 2: Identifying Decision Criteria • Decision criteria are factors that are important (relevant) to resolving the problem. – Costs that will be incurred (investments required) – Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure) – Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm) Step 3: Allocating Weights to the Criteria • Decision criteria are not of equal importance: Assigning a weight to each item places the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision making process.
- 8. Criteria and Weights for Computer Replacement Decision Criterion Weight Memory and Storage 10 Battery life 8 Carrying Weight 6 Warranty 4 Display Quality 3
- 9. Step 4: Developing Alternatives • Identifying viable alternatives – Alternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem. Step 5: Analyzing Alternatives • Appraising each alternative’s strengths and weaknesses An alternative’s appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.
- 10. Assessed Values of Laptop Computers Using Decision Criteria
- 11. Step 6: Selecting an Alternative • Choosing the best alternative – The alternative with the highest total weight is chosen. Step 7: Implementing the Alternative • Putting the chosen alternative into action. Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision.
- 12. Evaluation of Laptop Alternatives Against Weighted Criteria
- 13. Step 8: Evaluating the Decision’s Effectiveness • The soundness of the decision is judged by its outcomes. – How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives? – If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong?
- 14. Decisions in the Management Functions
- 15. Making Decisions • Rationality – Managers make consistent, value-maximizing choices with specified constraints. – Assumptions are that decision makers: • Are perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical. • Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives. • Have a clear and specific goal • Will select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organization’s interests rather than in their personal interests.
- 17. The Role of Intuition • Intuitive decision making – Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment.
- 18. What is Intuition? Source: Based on L. A. Burke and M. K. Miller, “Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making,” Academy of Management Executive, October 1999, pp. 91–99.
- 19. GROUP DECISION MAKING ADVANTAGES ADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES DISADVANTAGES More information available More information available Time-consuming Time-consuming More More alternative solutions alternative solutions Delays & ill feeling possible Delays & ill feeling possible Increases solution Increases solution understanding & acceptance understanding & acceptance Domination by individuals Domination by individuals Builds member Builds member knowledge & skill base knowledge & skill base Risk of groupthink Risk of groupthink
- 20. Types of Problems and Decisions • Structured Problems – Involve goals that clear. – Are familiar (have occurred before). – Are easily and completely defined—information about the problem is available and complete. • Programmed Decision – A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.
- 21. Types of Programmed Decisions • Policy – A general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem. • Procedure – A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond (applying a policy) to a structured problem. • Rule – An explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do.
- 22. Policy, Procedure, and Rule Examples • Policy – Accept all customer-returned merchandise. • Procedure – Follow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation. • Rules – Managers must approve all refunds over $50.00. – No credit purchases are refunded for cash.
- 23. Problems and Decisions (cont’d) • Unstructured Problems – Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. – Problems that will require custom-made solutions. • Non programmed Decisions – Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring. – Decisions that generate unique responses.
- 24. Decision-Making Conditions • Certainty – A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known. • Risk – A situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives.
- 25. Expected Value for Revenues from the Addition of One Ski Lift Expected Probability = Value of Each Alternative Event Expected × Revenues Heavy snowfall $850,000 0.3 = $255,000 Normal snowfall 725,000 0.5 = 362,500 Light snowfall 350,000 0.2 = 70,000 $687,500
- 26. Decision-Making Conditions • Uncertainty – Limited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition, hunches, and “gut feelings”. • Maximax: the optimistic manager’s choice to maximize the maximum payoff • Maximin: the pessimistic manager’s choice to maximize the minimum payoff • Minimax: the manager’s choice to minimize maximum regret.
- 27. Decision-Making Styles (cont’d) • Types of Decision Makers – Directive • Use minimal information and consider few alternatives. – Analytic • Make careful decisions in unique situations. – Conceptual • Maintain a broad outlook and consider many alternatives in making decisions. – Behavioral • Avoid conflict by working well with others and being receptive to suggestions.
- 29. Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases
- 30. Decision-Making Biases and Errors • Heuristics – Using “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making. • Overconfidence Bias – Holding unrealistically positive views of one’s self and one’s performance. • Immediate Gratification Bias – Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.
- 31. Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont’d) • Anchoring Effect – Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information. • Selective Perception Bias – Selecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision maker’s biased perceptions. • Confirmation Bias – Seeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.
- 32. Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont’d) • Framing Bias – Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects. • Availability Bias – Losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events. • Representation Bias – Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist. • Randomness Bias – Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.
- 33. Decision-Making Biases and Errors (cont’d) • Sunk Costs Errors – Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences. • Self-Serving Bias – Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures. • Hindsight Bias – Mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known (afterthe-fact).
- 34. Decision Making for Today’s World • Guidelines for making effective decisions: – Understand cultural differences. – Know when it’s time to call it quits. – Use an effective decision-making process. • Habits of highly reliable organizations (HROs) – – – – – Are not tricked by their success. Defer to the experts on the front line. Let unexpected circumstances provide the solution. Embrace complexity. Anticipate, but also anticipate their limits.
- 35. The End !!
Editor's Notes
- #3: This lecture explores the nature of managerial decision making, including types of problems and decision-making situations managers can face. Managers as decision makers are evaluated and the steps in an effective decision-making process are considered. Further discussion can be found on page 132.
- #4: Page 133
- #20: Page 147