Demographic Processes
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The document explores population dynamics through fertility, mortality, and migration, highlighting demographic transitions and their implications for social structures. It discusses manifest and latent functions of social patterns, the consequences of aging populations in countries like Japan and the U.S., and potential economic impacts of declining birth rates. The emphasis is on understanding the underlying processes and considering policy responses to demographic changes.
Demographic Processes
- 1. Explanations & Supplemental Information for Chapter 19 of The Sociology Project
- 4. • Understanding of set of processes underlying • Births, • Deaths, • Movement into and out of given population • Describing change in • Fertility, • Mortality, • Migration • Understanding what might be causing changes
- 5. MANIFEST functions of a social pattern outcomes people consciously intend or predict from the actions they choose the explanations they give themselves LATENT functions of a social pattern the outcomes that regularly occur but are neither foreseen or intended. must be discovered through research POPULATION dynamics stem from BOTH
- 6. LATENT Polygyny Dowry (economic) Marry late (age) Taboos about non-marital sexual intercourse Higher divorce rates Religious bans (180 days/year) Breastfeeding MANIFEST Potions, spells, etc. Since 1850 B.C., barrier methods of contraception used Coitus interruptus Abortion Infanticide (c.f. story of Moses...)
- 8. Core Concept: Demographic transition • Initial pretransition period: • high fertility • high mortality • Transitional period • mortality first declines • followed by decline in fertility • Posttransition period • both fertility and mortality are low
- 10. Sudan-1950 Start of first demographic transition Rapid decreases in mortality, but much later and slower decreases in fertility, which in turn imply very rapid population growth U.S. End of first demographic transition Age pyramid after age 60 Replacement fertility Japan Completed first demographic transition Below replacement fertility
- 12. Immigration • U.S.: Population involves in- and out-migration • Japan: Very small immigrant population Population momentum • U.S.: Continued slow growth • Japan: Initial and then decreased growth
- 13. Baby Boom bulge in middle of pyramid. Long lives means many more elderly in future years.
- 14. First demographic transition • Impacts kinds of disease and health conditions affecting countries Epidemiological transition • Healh transition of population • from health conditions primarily involving infectious disease • to health conditions primarily involving chronic disease
- 16. 16 Why 40-44? First bar = 1976 (What year were these women 20 years old?) Last bar = 1998 (What year were these women 20 years old?) What pattern?
- 17. 17 Light Saber
- 18. Planning for a world with many elders & few babies.
- 20. This pattern is very likely, unless something occurs that causes the death rate of the elderly to increase dramatically. Source: United Nations FPA: Ageing in the Twenty-First Century: A Celebration and A Challenge http://www.unfpa.org/webdav/site/global/shared/documents/publications/2012/UNFPA-Main-Report-Part2.pdf
- 21. Will some countries age more quickly than others? Japan (if fertility remains at very low subreplacement levels) • Rapid population aging • Rapid population decline Demographic Winter (Friday’s film) will report fertility figures for some of European countries that are well below 2.0, some as low as 1.1 children per woman (population will be half its current size in 33 years).
- 22. This pattern is somewhat less certain. No nation has ever reversed the decline in birth-rate. However, governments in Japan, Russia and Sweden are trying to boost their birth rates. Such policies might have an impact.
- 24. Some social scientists have great concern that population decline will have economic and social consequences that will be hard to live with. They produced a film titled Demographic Winter.
- 25. What are the patterns of childbearing? What are the economic impacts? What are the social trends that generated and sustain the pattern? Is this a problem? If so, what policies are needed?
- 26. The search for causes is seeking explanation If the situation is considered a problem, the resolution is not necessarily the reversal of the original circumstances. Example: Obesity is a growing problem because we have more, cheaper food than any time in history. No one suggests going back to less efficient agriculture to cure obesity – but other policies do try to have an impact on the problem. The facts in the film are solid. It is designed to be provocative so that people think.
- 27. Explanations & Supplemental Information for Chapter 19 of The Sociology Project
Editor's Notes
- #9: Nations and regions do not return to pretranstion levels of high fertility.
- #13: Definition:Population momentum: Tendency of population that has been changing in size to continue to change in size even if factors such as fertility and mortality have shifted to levels that would, in the long run, imply no change in population size.
- #14: Baby boomers: Persons born between 1946 and 1964Reflection of the baby boom in the children of the baby boomers in U.S.Peak for the children of Japan’s baby boomers sharper than in U.S.
- #15: DefinitionsEpidemiology: Study of health-related events in populations, their characteristics, their causes, and their consequences.
- #22: Pace of population growth and pace of population aging are fundamentally questions involving population dynamics.