DSD-INT 2015 - Towards new hydrological forecasting systems in Wales - Andrew How
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Natural Resources Wales is developing a new flood forecasting system for Wales to replace the existing system hosted by the Environment Agency. The new system will establish Wales' own forecasting capability rather than relying on a system developed for another organization. It will not simply replicate the existing setup, but will improve functionality in areas like probabilistic forecasting, dynamic risk assessment, data sharing, and mobile access. The goal is to utilize latest technologies and learn from other forecasting systems worldwide to provide improved flood warnings and risk information for Wales.
DSD-INT 2015 - Towards new hydrological forecasting systems in Wales - Andrew How
- 1. A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR WALES: CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES Andrew How Flood Forecasting Team Leader Cyfoeth Naturiol Cymru / Natural Resources Wales
- 2. WALES Flood Risk Summary Overview POPULATION COASTAL FLUVIAL With steep, fast responding river catchments; large areas of exposed coastline and a significant percentage of the population at risk of flooding – there are many challenges to flood forecasting
- 3. POPULATION • 3 million people live in Wales • 1 in 8 people live in properties at risk from fluvial or coastal flooding. • Over half the population of Wales live near to, or on, the coast. • £8 billion worth of assets at risk.
- 4. FLUVIAL Fast responding rivers. Typical river response; from a normal to severe event in less than 2 hours.
- 5. COASTAL • 1200km of coastline. • Sections of coastline exposed to large Atlantic swell waves and strong onshore winds • 2nd largest tidal range in the world with complex tide / surge interaction. • Large storm surge risk • Significant coastal communities.
- 6. • Where have we been? • Where are we now? • Where are we going?
- 7. • Where have we been?
- 8. Timeline of flood forecasting in Wales pRE - 2004 Local dispersed service
- 9. Timeline of flood forecasting in Wales 2004
- 10. 2004 2005 Timeline of flood forecasting in Wales
- 11. 2004 2005 2007 2006 2008 2009 2011 2010 2012 2013 Timeline of flood forecasting in Wales Centralised Coastal Forecasting Centralised Fluvial Forecasting New Coastal Forecasting Model
- 12. 2004 2005 2007 2006 2008 2009 2011 2010 2012 2013 Dockable windows Expanded fluvial forecasting including boundary change Improved interface Timeline of flood forecasting in Wales Model improvements Ensemble forecasting Improved data feeds
- 13. 2004 2005 2007 2006 2008 2009 2011 2010 2012 2013 + + = Timeline of flood forecasting in Wales
- 14. • No IT infrastructure • No IT kit • No established ways of working Former EAW Users Former CCW Users Former FCW UsersNRW New organisation
- 15. • Building our own ICT – World has changed – cloud – Government Digital Services (GDS) “Cloud first or justify” – Large System Integrators vs budgetary challenges • Economic commitment – Providing high quality skilled jobs in Wales Early decisions
- 16. Former EAW Users Former CCW Users Former FCW UsersNRW Office 365 Cloud Services Former EAW Users Former CCW Users Former FCW UsersNRW Office 365 Cloud Services Former EAW Users Former CCW Users Former FCW UsersNRW Office 365 Cloud Services Apprenticeship scheme • First funded Microsoft Apprenticeship scheme in Wales • 2 year apprenticeship with industry qualification • Currently we have 9 apprentices • Scheme has been adopted by other organisations • Allows organic growth of our ICT Team Early decisions
- 17. • Majority of applications run in cloud • Many of our servers are cloud based • We only pay when we are using them • We can “spin up” a server in less than 5 minutes • Applications are being simplified as they are migrated MyNRW Azure VPN Connections Mobile Deployment CRM Office 365 Apprenticeship Scheme StarLIMS NRW Kit RolloutIntranet DMS Internet Yammer Lync VOIP Telephony Mobile Apps Applications
- 18. 2004 2005 2007 2006 2008 2009 2011 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 Timeline of flood forecasting in Wales Version upgrades Expanded coverage Improved and recalibrated models Templates Model schematics Telemetry polling User permissions
- 19. 2004 2005 2007 2006 2008 2009 2011 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 Timeline of flood forecasting in Wales
- 20. • Where have we been? • Where are we now?
- 21. • Environment Agency replacing NFFS • Natural Resources Wales establishing own capability • Migrate existing NFFS for Wales Wales’ forecasting system
- 22. Challenges • Forecasting system which is hosted on infrastructure based in a separate organisation • Forecasting system developed > 10 years ago • New organisation with limited resources • Limited timescales • Managing existing system whilst developing the new system Advantages • Extensive configuration experience • Established ways of working • Open and flexible approach to IT • Ability to utilise latest technological innovations • Opportunity to learn from implementations of FEWS around the world
- 23. • Where have we been? • Where are we now? • Where are we going?
- 24. Not just a ‘lift and shift’ of the current setup Methods of access Reporting Sharing data Archiving Basic functionality of supporting systems Probabilistic forecasting Dynamic assessment of risk Establish our own capability Way forward Improved functionality
- 25. Not just a ‘lift and shift’ of the current setup Methods of access Reporting Sharing data Archiving Basic functionality of supporting systems Probabilistic forecasting Sharing data Dynamic assessment of risk Way forward Establish our own capability Improved functionality
- 26. Sharing data
- 27. Sharing data
- 28. Basic functionality of supporting systems Sharing dataBasic functionality of supporting systems
- 29. Basic functionality of supporting systems
- 30. Basic functionality of supporting systems
- 31. Basic functionality of supporting systemsImproved functionality Improved functionality
- 34. Probabilistic forecasting Improved functionalityProbabilistic forecasting
- 35. Probabilistic forecasting • Understanding of uncertainty • Better able to capture range of risks • Increased processing / cloud computing • Running all models with all inputs
- 36. Probabilistic forecasting Dynamic assessment of risk Dynamic assessment of risk
- 37. Dynamic assessment of risk • Real time updating of risk based on the latest forecast • Dynamic colouring of flood risk areas • Sharing data with professional partners
- 38. Methods of access Dynamic assessment of riskMethods of access
- 39. Methods of access App / web access Tailored to mobile working Access forecast meteorological / hydrological data Operational functionality Full synch Ability to run standalone Full application Minimal synch / no synch Ability to run models and assess output Operational functionality
- 41. Archiving • Currently using standard FEWS archive • We’ve done little development since implementation • Retrieving data is not always successful • Limited searchability and useability of data • Local working practice to manually archive Local Data Stores – noting any exceedances • How do we automate this more effectively? • How do we combine archive with additional systems: telemetry data / historical data / meteorological data? • How do we tailor this for: training / post event analysis / model calibration or verification / report generation?
- 43. Reporting
- 44. Reporting
- 45. • Where have we been? • Where are we now? • Where are we going?
- 46. Any questions?