DSD-INT 2017 Bayesian network approach for climate change and drr scenarios’ testing - Duo
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The document presents a Bayesian network approach for assessing climate change impacts and disaster risk reduction (DRR) scenarios, focusing on coastal areas in Italy and Spain. It emphasizes the need for integrated tools for local coastal risk assessments and highlights methodologies for evaluating floods and erosion risks. Key findings suggest that the hotspot tool can effectively simulate current conditions and compare various scenarios, but acknowledges limitations related to model approximations and vulnerability relations.
DSD-INT 2017 Bayesian network approach for climate change and drr scenarios’ testing - Duo
- 1. BAYESIAN NETWORK APPROACH FOR CLIMATE CHANGE AND DRR SCENARIOS’ TESTING Pilot Cases from Italy and Spain Marc Sanuy - Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya - marc.sanuy@upc.edu Enrico Duo - University of Ferrara - enrico.duo@unife.it Wiebke S. Jäger - Delft University of Technology - w.s.jager@tudelft.nl Paolo Ciavola - University of Ferrara - cvp@unife.it José A. Jiménez - Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya - jose.jimenez@upc.edu XBeach X (10th Year Anniversary) Conference Wednesday, 01 November 2017 - Friday, 03 November 2017 Delft, The Nederlands
- 2. Motivation • Increasing RISK due to increasing HAZARD and EXPOSURE on the coasts • Need for integrated, multi-hazard tools for local coastal risk assessments in support for coastal management: • Current and future scenario comparison • DRR measures and strategies comparisons • Need to manage large amount of data/simulations
- 3. Aim and Scope Source: Van Dongeren, A., Ciavola, P., Martinez, G., Viavattene, C., Bogaard, T., Ferreira, O., Higgins, R. and Mccall, R.: Introduction to RISC-KIT: Resilience-increasing strategies for coasts, Coast. Eng., doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.10.007, 2017.
- 4. Case Study SitesTorderaDelta Catalunya,Spain LidodegliEstensi–Spina Emilia-Romagna,Italy Source: Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-345, in review, 2017.
- 5. Methodology(*) Source • Regional/Local Scale Pathways • Local Scale (CSS) Receptors • Building Scale Consequences • Building Scale RISK=HAZARDxCONSEQUENCES Source: Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-345, in review, 2017. (*) Adapted from: Jäger, W. S., Christie, E. K., Hanea, A. M., Den Heijer, C. and Spencer, T.: A Bayesian network approach for coastal risk analysis and decision making, Coast. Eng., doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.05.004, 2017.
- 6. Source Pathways … Source: Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-345, in review, 2017. Tordera Delta: • External Forcings • Source Propagation (SWAN) • XBeach (Curv. Grid) • St. Esteve 2008 Event Lido degli Estensi-Spina: • Bulk Storm Data • Triangular Synthetic Storms • XBeach (Rect. Grid) • St. Agatha 2015 Event
- 7. … ReceptorsConsequences! Source: Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-345, in review, 2017.
- 8. … ReceptorsConsequences! Source: Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-345, in review, 2017. Classification of RD to define the Level of Risk for Flooding Significant erosion in the buffer if it is higher than defined thresholds The Level of Risk for Erosion depends on the affected buffer (or combination of them)
- 9. Bayesian Network Boundary Conditions Receptors Hazards Consequences Measures Source: Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-345, in review, 2017.
- 10. Events and Scenarios Historical and Synthetic Events: • Current and Climate Change Scenarios • DRR Scenarios Source: Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-345, in review, 2017.
- 11. CC DRR Tordera Delta: • +73cm SLR RCP8.5 2100(*) • Morphological accomodation(**) • Storm direction shift EE/S(§) Lido degli Estensi-Spina: • +30cm RSLR (incl. subsidence§§) RCP8.5 2050(*) • NO morph. accomodation (*) Vousdoukas et al. (2016) (**) Bosom (2014) , Jiménez et al. (2017) , Bruun (1962) (§) Casas-Prat and Sierra (2012) (§§) Taramelli et al., 2015 Source: Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-345, in review, 2017.
- 12. CC DRR Tordera Delta: • +73cm SLR RCP8.5 2100(*) • Morphological accomodation(**) • Storm direction shift ES(§) Lido degli Estensi-Spina: • +30cm RSLR (incl. subsidence§§) RCP8.5 2050(*) • NO morph. accomodation (*) Vousdoukas et al. (2016) (**) Bosom (2014) , Jiménez et al. (2017) , Bruun (1962) (§) Casas-Prat and Sierra (2012) (§§) Taramelli et al., 2015 Source: Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-345, in review, 2017.
- 14. Tordera Delta L. Estensi-Spina NODRRDRR 96 simulations 96 simulations
- 15. Tordera Delta – Flooding Risk - Eastern Storms Tordera Delta – Flooding Risk - South+Eastern Storms Source: Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-345, in review, 2017.
- 16. Tordera Delta – Erosion Risk - Eastern Storms Tordera Delta – Erosion Risk - South+Eastern Storms Source: Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-345, in review, 2017.
- 17. Lido di Spina – Flooding Risk – All Storms Lido di Spina – Erosion Risk – All Storms Source: Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-345, in review, 2017.
- 18. Source … Consequences!
- 19. Source … Consequences!
- 20. Source … Consequences! NO DRR WD DRR Current Scenario ClimateChange Scenario TWL Hs Source: Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess- 2017-345, in review, 2017.
- 21. Main Conclusions • The Hotspot tool is able to reproduce the current conditions at the two CSS • It is able to compare scenarios (i.e. CC and DRR) in an integrated manner: – Increasing RISK (i.e. flooding and erosion) due to CC – Best performance DRR: artificial dune (with/without) nuorishment and managed retreat • SourceConsequences and SourceConsequences • The comparison is statistically valid (i.e. large number of simulations) • It is flexible and can integrate multiple hazards and consequences at the receptor scale (i.e. socio-economic aspects) • Limitations: – numerical approximations of the model chain – the adopted vulnerability relations – the design of the measures and the future conditions Space for Improvements
- 22. Sanuy, M., Duo, E., Jäger, W. S., Ciavola, P., and Jiménez, J. A.: Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2017-345, in review, 2017. Join the discussion at: https://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci- discuss.net/nhess-2017-345/ This work is under review in NHESS and is online for OPEN DISCUSSION: JOIN THE DISCUSSION!!! Thank you!