E1 Scenario Planning
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This document discusses scenario planning as a strategic planning method. It describes the scenario planning process, which involves defining assumptions and drivers of change, developing initial scenarios, and identifying issues. The document then provides examples of scenarios for the library sector, including the effects of UK withdrawal from the EU or greater power for the European Court. Small groups are asked to develop scenarios focusing on alternative discovery sources, changed librarian roles, or other topics. Finally, the document summarizes scenarios developed in a previous workshop on commercialization of libraries, devolved ownership of services, universal skills, and niche librarians.
E1 Scenario Planning
- 1. Preparing for the Future: Technological Challenges and Beyond E1: Scenario Planning Brian Kelly Independent researcher/consultant at UK Web Focus Ltd. Tony Hirst Senior lecturer at The Open University Contact Details Brian Kelly Tony Hirst Email: ukwebfocus@gmail.com Email: tony.hirst@gmail.com Twitter: @briankelly Twitter: @psychemedia Blog: http://ukwebfocus.com/ Blog: http://blog.ouseful.info/ Slides and further information available at http://ukwebfocus.com/events/ili-2015-preparing-for-the-future/ UK Web Focus Event hashtag: #ili2015fut
- 2. E: Scenario Planning Scenario Planning Scenario planning is: • A strategic planning method that some organisations use to make flexible long-term plans. • An adaptation and generalization of classic methods used by military intelligence. Processes: • Step 1 - decide assumptions/drivers for change • Step 2 - bring drivers together into a viable framework • Step 3 - produce initial mini-scenarios • Step 4 - reduce to two or three scenarios • Step 5 - write the scenarios • Step 6 - identify issues arising 2 From http://en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/Scenario_planning
- 3. E: Scenario Planning Radical Scenarios Two day planning meeting for Intute (formerly RDN (Resource Discovery Network) in 2007 External facilitator set group exercise: “The Martians have landed and taken away Intute’s servers. You decide to launch a rescue mission. What aspects of your service are your top priority?” Suggestions: • The catalogue records • The management tools • The personalisation features • They can have the technology: the most important aspect is our community of cataloguers! 3 Note the Martians (in the form of money men) did arrive and removed the Intute servers, offices and staff!)
- 4. E: Scenario Planning Examples of Scenarios Context: effect of changes in Europe to library sector 4 Possible Scenarios UK leaves EU Scottish independence Greater power for European Court Withdrawal from European Court -ve: Move towards right; less public funding; more links with US +ve: Rediscovery of British culture Differential charging for students • Greater emphasis on privacy • Difficulties for US IT companies • Development of EU alternatives • Data hosting in EU countries • Weaker human rights, privacy & data protection legislation • Move towards US-model
- 5. E: Scenario Planning Need for Scenarios Context from NMC Horizon report – two difficult challenges: 5
- 6. E: Scenario Planning Scenario Design In small groups: • Choose a context: Competition from alternative sources of discovery Significantly changed roles for librarians Your own choice • Provide a set of bullet points: Highlighting possible scenarios (Possible implications of scenarios) (Ways of spotting signals of scenarios becoming true) 6 GroupExercise
- 7. E: Scenario Planning Scenarios From ILI 2013 Workshop • Possible scenarios 7 Commercialisation Devolved ownership Everyone’s a librarian The niche librarian
- 8. E: Scenario Planning Scenario 1: Commercialisation By 2016: • Libraries had responded by financial pressures by making significant use of commercial services • Companies are now looking to respond to pressure from shareholders to increase profits 8 Scenario 2: Devolution By 2016: • Facebook, Amazon, … had alienated users due to abuse of privacy, failure to pay taxes, … • There was a move towards small-scale services which were owned/managed by trusted organisations
- 9. E: Scenario Planning Scenario 3: Everyone’s a Librarian By 2016: • The majority are now connected using social networks and are comfortable in using the services • Skills which previously librarians possessed (cataloging resources, resource discovery, …) are now held by many • The role of the dedicated generalist librarian is questioned 9 Scenario 4: The Niche Librarian By 2016: • We had seen a decline in student numbers in library schools and the demise of their professional organisation following significant government cuts • The professional body asked its few remaining members for thoughts on the future of the profession
- 10. E: Scenario Planning Conclusions 10 • People typically don’t envisage the demise of their organisation or key services • But organisations and services do fold (Intute, UKOLN, Netskills, AHDS, …) • Scenario planning can provide a non- threatening ways of exploring implications
Editor's Notes
- #11: I’d welcome questions and comments. Note that I’ve published a blog post on which can be used for questions. Thank you.