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Empirical Process
                                            Control
                                                                          by
                                                                      Geir Amsjø




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”                www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2011.
Empirical vs. Defining
agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
“At the University of California at Irvine, ... they
                                       just planted grass... they waited a year and
Empirical vs. Defining                  looked at where people had made paths in the
                                       grass and built the side walks there.”
agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company                  www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Defined Process Control                           Inspired by the assembly line

agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software        www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
Empirical Process Control                              Based on the the Scientific Method

agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software       www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
Scientific Method Steps:
       • Ask a Question
       • Do Background Research
       • Construct a Hypothesis
       • Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment
       • Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion
       • Communicate Your Results




                                        Scientific Method
agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
Software
                                                           Development

                                        Which Metaphor?
agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software     www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
?
                                                             Software
                                                           Development

                                        Which Metaphor?
agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software       www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
Which Metaphor?
agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
Which Metaphor?
agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
Process Control vs Complexity




                                                                                            The Cynefin
                                                                                            Framework




                                                                                     From “A Leader’s Framework
                                                                                      for Decision Making” by D.
                                                                                       Snowden & M. Boone in
                                                                                       Harvard Business Review,
                                                                                              NOV 2007.

agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Process Control vs Complexity




                                                                                                        The Cynefin
                                                                                                        Framework
                                                                          Defined
                                                                      Process Control

                                                                                                 From “A Leader’s Framework
                                                                                                  for Decision Making” by D.
                                                                                                   Snowden & M. Boone in
                                                                                                   Harvard Business Review,
                                                                                                          NOV 2007.

agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”               www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Process Control vs Complexity



                                                     Empirical
                                                  Process Control

                                                                                                        The Cynefin
                                                                                                        Framework
                                                                          Defined
                                                                      Process Control

                                                                                                 From “A Leader’s Framework
                                                                                                  for Decision Making” by D.
                                                                                                   Snowden & M. Boone in
                                                                                                   Harvard Business Review,
                                                                                                          NOV 2007.

agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”               www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Defined vs Empirical




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Defined vs Empirical
                  “How to maximize resource utilization and activity speed”




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Defined vs Empirical
                  “How to maximize resource utilization and activity speed”




                                    “How to maximize learning and innovation”




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Scientific Method vs Scrum

         Ask a Question


  • Do Background
         Research
  • Construct a Hypothesis
  • Test Your Hypothesis by
         Doing an Experiment
  • Analyze Your Data and
         Draw a Conclusion
  • Communicate Your
         Results




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Scientific Method vs Scrum
                                                                      • “They clearly need better browsing
         Ask a Question
                                                                        capabilities. What if we provided
                                                                        Geographical Browsing?”
  • Do Background
         Research
  • Construct a Hypothesis
  • Test Your Hypothesis by
         Doing an Experiment
  • Analyze Your Data and
         Draw a Conclusion
  • Communicate Your
         Results




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”                     www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Scientific Method vs Scrum
                                                                      • “They clearly need better browsing
         Ask a Question
                                                                        capabilities. What if we provided
                                                                        Geographical Browsing?”
  • Do Background
                                                                      • Do some investigation in that area
         Research
  • Construct a Hypothesis
  • Test Your Hypothesis by
         Doing an Experiment
  • Analyze Your Data and
         Draw a Conclusion
  • Communicate Your
         Results




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”                     www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Scientific Method vs Scrum
                                                                      • “They clearly need better browsing
         Ask a Question
                                                                        capabilities. What if we provided
                                                                        Geographical Browsing?”
  • Do Background
                                                                      • Do some investigation in that area
         Research
                                                                      • Define User Stories for this. Estimate
  • Construct a Hypothesis
                                                                        and prioritize (MMF, MVP).
  • Test Your Hypothesis by
         Doing an Experiment
  • Analyze Your Data and
         Draw a Conclusion
  • Communicate Your
         Results




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”                     www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Scientific Method vs Scrum
                                                                      • “They clearly need better browsing
         Ask a Question
                                                                        capabilities. What if we provided
                                                                        Geographical Browsing?”
  • Do Background
                                                                      • Do some investigation in that area
         Research
                                                                      • Define User Stories for this. Estimate
  • Construct a Hypothesis
                                                                        and prioritize (MMF, MVP).
  • Test Your Hypothesis by
                                                                      • Run Sprint
         Doing an Experiment
  • Analyze Your Data and
         Draw a Conclusion
  • Communicate Your
         Results




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”                     www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Scientific Method vs Scrum
                                                                      • “They clearly need better browsing
         Ask a Question
                                                                        capabilities. What if we provided
                                                                        Geographical Browsing?”
  • Do Background
                                                                      • Do some investigation in that area
         Research
                                                                      • Define User Stories for this. Estimate
  • Construct a Hypothesis
                                                                        and prioritize (MMF, MVP).
  • Test Your Hypothesis by
                                                                      • Run Sprint
         Doing an Experiment
                                                                      • Do Sprint review. Deliver the
  • Analyze Your Data and
                                                                        increment (?)
         Draw a Conclusion
  • Communicate Your
         Results




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”                     www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Scientific Method vs Scrum
                                                                      • “They clearly need better browsing
         Ask a Question
                                                                        capabilities. What if we provided
                                                                        Geographical Browsing?”
  • Do Background
                                                                      • Do some investigation in that area
         Research
                                                                      • Define User Stories for this. Estimate
  • Construct a Hypothesis
                                                                        and prioritize (MMF, MVP).
  • Test Your Hypothesis by
                                                                      • Run Sprint
         Doing an Experiment
                                                                      • Do Sprint review. Deliver the
  • Analyze Your Data and
                                                                        increment (?)
         Draw a Conclusion
                                                                      • Have retrospective, update Product
  • Communicate Your
                                                                        Backlog (learning)
         Results




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”                     www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Implications of Empirical




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Implications of Empirical

 • Learning is “hard cash”




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Implications of Empirical

 • Learning is “hard cash”

 • Speed is vital for learning




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Implications of Empirical

 • Learning is “hard cash”

 • Speed is vital for learning

 • A safe-to-fail environment




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Implications of Empirical

 • Learning is “hard cash”

 • Speed is vital for learning

 • A safe-to-fail environment

 • We must expect to fail




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Implications of Empirical

 • Learning is “hard cash”

 • Speed is vital for learning

 • A safe-to-fail environment

 • We must expect to fail

 • Team self-organize and find the best possible
      way to perform the work




agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Implications of Empirical

 • Learning is “hard cash”

 • Speed is vital for learning

 • A safe-to-fail environment

 • We must expect to fail

 • Team self-organize and find the best possible
      way to perform the work

 • The best “experiments” lead to both valuable
      product increments and learning

agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
Contact and information




• geir.amsjo@agile42.com,

• www.agile42.no

• www.agile42.com



• Blog: scrummaster.no

• Twitter: @gamsjo



agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great”   www.agile42.com |   All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.

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Empirical processcontrol

  • 1. Empirical Process Control by Geir Amsjø agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2011.
  • 2. Empirical vs. Defining agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 3. “At the University of California at Irvine, ... they just planted grass... they waited a year and Empirical vs. Defining looked at where people had made paths in the grass and built the side walks there.” agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 4. Defined Process Control Inspired by the assembly line agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
  • 5. Empirical Process Control Based on the the Scientific Method agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
  • 6. Scientific Method Steps: • Ask a Question • Do Background Research • Construct a Hypothesis • Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment • Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion • Communicate Your Results Scientific Method agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
  • 7. Software Development Which Metaphor? agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
  • 8. ? Software Development Which Metaphor? agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
  • 9. Which Metaphor? agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
  • 10. Which Metaphor? agile42 | We advise, train and coach companies building software www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2010.
  • 11. Process Control vs Complexity The Cynefin Framework From “A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making” by D. Snowden & M. Boone in Harvard Business Review, NOV 2007. agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 12. Process Control vs Complexity The Cynefin Framework Defined Process Control From “A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making” by D. Snowden & M. Boone in Harvard Business Review, NOV 2007. agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 13. Process Control vs Complexity Empirical Process Control The Cynefin Framework Defined Process Control From “A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making” by D. Snowden & M. Boone in Harvard Business Review, NOV 2007. agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 14. Defined vs Empirical agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 15. Defined vs Empirical “How to maximize resource utilization and activity speed” agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 16. Defined vs Empirical “How to maximize resource utilization and activity speed” “How to maximize learning and innovation” agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 17. Scientific Method vs Scrum Ask a Question • Do Background Research • Construct a Hypothesis • Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment • Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion • Communicate Your Results agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 18. Scientific Method vs Scrum • “They clearly need better browsing Ask a Question capabilities. What if we provided Geographical Browsing?” • Do Background Research • Construct a Hypothesis • Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment • Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion • Communicate Your Results agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 19. Scientific Method vs Scrum • “They clearly need better browsing Ask a Question capabilities. What if we provided Geographical Browsing?” • Do Background • Do some investigation in that area Research • Construct a Hypothesis • Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment • Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion • Communicate Your Results agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 20. Scientific Method vs Scrum • “They clearly need better browsing Ask a Question capabilities. What if we provided Geographical Browsing?” • Do Background • Do some investigation in that area Research • Define User Stories for this. Estimate • Construct a Hypothesis and prioritize (MMF, MVP). • Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment • Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion • Communicate Your Results agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 21. Scientific Method vs Scrum • “They clearly need better browsing Ask a Question capabilities. What if we provided Geographical Browsing?” • Do Background • Do some investigation in that area Research • Define User Stories for this. Estimate • Construct a Hypothesis and prioritize (MMF, MVP). • Test Your Hypothesis by • Run Sprint Doing an Experiment • Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion • Communicate Your Results agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 22. Scientific Method vs Scrum • “They clearly need better browsing Ask a Question capabilities. What if we provided Geographical Browsing?” • Do Background • Do some investigation in that area Research • Define User Stories for this. Estimate • Construct a Hypothesis and prioritize (MMF, MVP). • Test Your Hypothesis by • Run Sprint Doing an Experiment • Do Sprint review. Deliver the • Analyze Your Data and increment (?) Draw a Conclusion • Communicate Your Results agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 23. Scientific Method vs Scrum • “They clearly need better browsing Ask a Question capabilities. What if we provided Geographical Browsing?” • Do Background • Do some investigation in that area Research • Define User Stories for this. Estimate • Construct a Hypothesis and prioritize (MMF, MVP). • Test Your Hypothesis by • Run Sprint Doing an Experiment • Do Sprint review. Deliver the • Analyze Your Data and increment (?) Draw a Conclusion • Have retrospective, update Product • Communicate Your Backlog (learning) Results agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 24. Implications of Empirical agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 25. Implications of Empirical • Learning is “hard cash” agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 26. Implications of Empirical • Learning is “hard cash” • Speed is vital for learning agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 27. Implications of Empirical • Learning is “hard cash” • Speed is vital for learning • A safe-to-fail environment agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 28. Implications of Empirical • Learning is “hard cash” • Speed is vital for learning • A safe-to-fail environment • We must expect to fail agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 29. Implications of Empirical • Learning is “hard cash” • Speed is vital for learning • A safe-to-fail environment • We must expect to fail • Team self-organize and find the best possible way to perform the work agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 30. Implications of Empirical • Learning is “hard cash” • Speed is vital for learning • A safe-to-fail environment • We must expect to fail • Team self-organize and find the best possible way to perform the work • The best “experiments” lead to both valuable product increments and learning agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.
  • 31. Contact and information • geir.amsjo@agile42.com, • www.agile42.no • www.agile42.com • Blog: scrummaster.no • Twitter: @gamsjo agile42 | The Agile Coaching Company—“Coaching Good Teams to Great” www.agile42.com | All rights reserved. Copyright © 2007 - 2012.

Editor's Notes

  • #2: \n
  • #3: \n
  • #4: If you have to produce the same thing day in day out - an assembly line might work.\nThe different steps are highly specialized to do one thing extremely good.\nThen also the related processes might work for you.\n(In manufacturing almost nobody uses waterfall anymore)\n
  • #5: Solving completely new problems requires exploration. A more or less strong hypothesis, then designing an experiment, then analysing the result to create an even stronger hypothesis.\n\nFinne ut så raskt som mulig om det er et problem som er verd å løse\n\n\n
  • #6: \n
  • #7: \n
  • #8: Creating software is a creative exercise. It is about solving the problem ONCE. There is no production issue in IT. Like in Science we need to create good experiments to as quickly and efficient as possible learn wether our hypothesis is strong or not.\n\n
  • #9: Simple\n Repeating patterns and consistent events\n Clear cause-and-effect\n Relationships evident to everyone;\n Right answer exists\n Fact-based management\nComplicated\n Expert diagnosis required\n Cause-and-effect relationships discoverable but not immediately apparent to everyone\n More than one right answer possible\n Known unknowns\n Fact-based management\nComplex\n Flux and unpredictability\n No right answers\n Emergent instructive patterns\n Unknown unknowns\n Many competing ideas\n A need for creative and innovative approaches\n Pattern-based leadership\nChaotic\n High turbulence\n No clear cause-and-effect relationships, so no point in looking for right answers\n Unknowables\n Many decisions to make and no time to think\n High tension\n Pattern-based leadership\nDisorder\nYou will have disorder when you don´t understand where you are.\n
  • #10: Simple\n Repeating patterns and consistent events\n Clear cause-and-effect\n Relationships evident to everyone;\n Right answer exists\n Fact-based management\nComplicated\n Expert diagnosis required\n Cause-and-effect relationships discoverable but not immediately apparent to everyone\n More than one right answer possible\n Known unknowns\n Fact-based management\nComplex\n Flux and unpredictability\n No right answers\n Emergent instructive patterns\n Unknown unknowns\n Many competing ideas\n A need for creative and innovative approaches\n Pattern-based leadership\nChaotic\n High turbulence\n No clear cause-and-effect relationships, so no point in looking for right answers\n Unknowables\n Many decisions to make and no time to think\n High tension\n Pattern-based leadership\nDisorder\nYou will have disorder when you don´t understand where you are.\n
  • #11: Teamet har begrenset frihet (selvsagt) slik at inkrementene fører til et helhetlig produkt.\n\n\n
  • #12: Teamet har begrenset frihet (selvsagt) slik at inkrementene fører til et helhetlig produkt.\n\n\n
  • #13: \n
  • #14: \n
  • #15: \n
  • #16: \n
  • #17: \n
  • #18: \n
  • #19: \n
  • #20: \n
  • #21: \n
  • #22: \n
  • #23: \n
  • #24: \n
  • #25: \n