Environment Energy
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- Indonesia faces challenges from unsustainable energy development including high dependency on fossil fuels and exploitation of natural resources. This has contributed significantly to air pollution. - Transitioning to cleaner energy sources is complex, as demonstrated by past attempts with varying degrees of success using different fuels in different time periods and sectors. Large-scale transition is unpredictable. - The research aims to develop an emissions inventory, identify transition enablers and barriers through interviews, and determine health and environmental impacts of scenarios through energy modeling to inform Indonesia's optimal long-term energy path.
Environment Energy
- 1. Environmental Impact of Energy Transition in Indonesia Anjar Priandoyo aap519 @york.ac.uk
- 2. • Meeting point of Eurasian Plate and Australian Plate • 17,000+ Islands, 200+ Active Volcanoes, 40% World Geothermal Resources • #3 Largest Tropical Rainforest, #2 Exporter of Coal & Palm Oil, OPEC Member • #4 Largest Population, Developing Countries, GDP Per Capita $ 3,500, Largest Muslim Country Where is Indonesia ?
- 3. Introduction UNDERSTANDING ENERGY TRANSITION IS IMPORTANT • Indonesia is a country with unsustainable energy development. It is indicated by large dependency of fossil fuel such as coal and oil, massive exploitation of natural resources such as palm oil and use of traditional biomass fuel. • Indonesia is one of largest emitter of air pollutants in Asia. High rates of emissions are expected from intensive energy related activities and biomass open burning including forest fires. • Unsustainable energy development is one of the biggest contributor of air pollution in Indonesia. Clean energy transition is required to ensure sustainable energy development
- 4. The Complexity of Transition FIRST AND BEST DOES NOT ALWAYS WIN THE RACE Fuel Status Year Size LPG Success 2007- 2010 50 million HH Coal Briquettes Fail 2006- 2007 1 million HH Palm Oil Success 2010- 2014 2 Mton (7% palm oil production), 7 Million vehicles Jatropha curcas Fail 2006- 2008 < 0.1 Mton, Japan planted since 1942 Sugar Cane Fail 2006- 2008 <2 Mton Households Transports
- 5. The Complexity of Transition LARGE SCALE TRANSITION IS UNPREDICTABLE In 1900, Indonesia’s main energy source is coal which accounted for 70% of energy mix. By 1960, oil which 70% of energy mix and as of 2010, Oil accounted for 52% Gas 29%, Coal 15%, Renewable 5% Transition Kerosene to LPG Biodiesel Geothermal Coal Timeframe 2007-2010 2010-2014 1980-2010 1989-1999 Market or Sector Urban and Rural Households Transportation Electricity National Energy Supply Annual Growth Rate 401% 92% 7.83% 30% Main Factors Increased Oil Price Declining Palm Oil Price, Increased Oil Price Market Liberalization, Increased Oil Price Commodity Boom, Electrification Program
- 6. Ring of Fire 2004 Indonesia 9.2 SR Tsunami (160,000 deaths) Tsunami affecting 0.3% Indonesian GDP 2006 Jogjakarta Earthquake (5,600 deaths) 200+ volcano, 40+ active volcano
- 7. 1992, 1997, 2002, 2014 Forest Fire 2.5 Million Hectare Size Forest Fire CO2 15.95 Mt CO2/day Emission $15.72bn; £10.5bn (1.9% Indonesian GDP) 1997 Forest Fires release 2.57 Gt Carbon (Nature)
- 8. • The 1997-1998 El Nino prompted the burning of 9.7 million hectare of forests and cost Indonesia approximately US$9 billion. During the El Nino event, over 2 million hectares of peat swamp forests were burned. Estimated 0.81 and 2.57 gigatonnes (Gt) Co2 is released • In 2015, affected 31 million ha, estimated 1 giga ton Co2 El-Nino and Forest Fire
- 9. Research Objective A COMBINATION OF QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE APPROACH IS PERFORMED TO UNDERSTAND THE IMPACT OF ENERGY TRANSITION • Develop the emission inventory as the basis of environmental impact of energy transition. The focus of emission inventory would be on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP). • Identify the enablers and obstacle of energy transition in Indonesia. A qualitative analysis using semi-structured interview is used. • Determine the wider health and environmental impacts resulting from energy transition from the use of renewable energy or clean energy sources. The analysis is performed using Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP).
- 10. Semi Structured Interview TO IDENTIFY ENABLERS AND OBSTACLE OF TRANSITION No Group Institution Respondent 1 Private Sector Indonesian Energy State Owned Company Indonesia SOE - EPC Engineering Company 3 2 Private Sector Multinational Energy Company Multinational Bank 3 3 Private Sector Energy Consultant Management Consultant 5 4 NGO - Energy International Energy & Environment NGO Indonesian Energy NGO 5 5 NGO - Researcher Indonesian University Indonesian Research Institution 5 6 Government - Energy Ministry of Energy 2 7 Government - Finance Ministry of Finance 6 8 Regional Government Regional Government 5
- 11. Emission Inventories THE BASIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT No Sectors 1 Combustion in the Energy Industries 2 Combustion in Manufacturing Industries 3 Transport 4 Combustion in Other Sectors 5 Fugitive emissions (non-combustion) for fuels 6 Industrial processes (non-combustion) emissions 7 Solvent and other product use 8 Agriculture 9 Vegetation fires and Forestry 10 Waste No Area 1 Brick kilns 2 Coke production technology split 3 Oil production data 4 Methane from coal mining 5 Road transport 6 Residential biomass fuel consumption 7 Crop residue open-burning 8 Rice cultivation 9 Solid waste incineration by open burning 10 Municipal solid waste in landfill 11 Domestic wastewater treatment and discharge
- 12. Long Term Energy Planning WHAT IS THE OPTIMAL ENERGY SCENARIO FOR INDONESIA Emission Inventories Scenario Analysis Scenario Development Clean Energy Transition Renewable Energy Transition Alternative Energy Transition Basic Services Development
- 13. Field Work “….Indonesia producing 1.2 billion traditional bricks annually (2013). Rice husks and wood is main fuel that used to cook bricks. A bricks can be cooked up to 7 days…” Location: Cirebon, West Java November 2016
- 14. Field Work “….Traditional lime production in Indonesia. Natural gas is used for fuel in lime processing…” Location: Cirebon, West Java November 2016
- 15. Thank You
- 16. Wind and Solar Map
- 17. • Java Island is 30% smaller than Great Britain • 150+ million population (from total 250+ mill) 18+ active volcano (from total 200+ volcano) Java Island
Editor's Notes
- #17: [1] http://www.3tier.com/en/support/resource-maps [2] http://www.martinot.info/Martinot_et_al_AR27.pdf ource: Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images and Christopher Thomond [3] http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/jan/27/feed-in-tariffs-renewable-energy [4] http://www.theguardian.com/uk/the-northerner/2012/jun/08/wind-turbines-bempton-flamborough-david-hockney-yorkshire