EU Agriculture & the net-zero challenge
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The document discusses pathways for the EU agriculture sector to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Agriculture currently accounts for 29.3% of EU greenhouse gas emissions and emissions from the sector are increasing. Reaching net-zero will require a combination of increased efficiency, greater carbon removals through practices like improved soil management, and reduced production of high-emission foods. Significant changes will be needed in production, consumption, technology, markets, and policy to transform the food system while avoiding external emissions impacts.
EU Agriculture & the net-zero challenge
- 1. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu EU Agriculture & the net-zero challenge What pathways towards a low-carbon and resilient EU agriculture sector in 2050 Ben Allen & Anna Lórant Institute for European Environmental Policy (IEEP) UNFCCC COP23 – Bonn, 10 November 2017
- 2. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu Agriculture’s contribution to EU GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) 29.3% Energy supply 19.2% Transport19.0% Industry 11.5% Residential & commercial 11.3% Agriculture Others • Large MS Variation • FR, DE, UK ~44% • Contribution likely to become more significant over time
- 3. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu Agricultural GHG emissions (CO2/non-CO2) 42.9% Enteric fermentation 15.4% Manure 38.0% Soils
- 4. The rationale for action on agriculture • Agriculture is a major source of GHG emissions • EU emissions from agriculture are now increasing, both in absolute and relative terms • EU agriculture production sector has a large land use impact outside its boarders
- 5. ‘net-zero emissions will be required from all sectors at some point around 2050’ COP21 Paris Climate Agreement
- 6. What makes agriculture special? • Potential to compensate for emissions through carbon sequestration and storage • Mitigation actions can deliver co- benefits: economic, environmental & social • Agriculture also has a role in – ensuring EU food and nutrition security, – Incomes and territorial developments, – & the social & environmental benefits delivered by the sector
- 7. ‘Future climate action in the agriculture sector relies on the choices of 12 million farmers ’
- 8. Actions to reduce emissions • Efficiency gains: reduce GHG emissions per unit of production • Reduced output: reduced GHG emissions in absolute terms. • Increased removals: e.g. through land use change or building carbon in soils Benefits and risks • Emissions reduced and allows production gains but risks a rebound effect, e.g. rise in consumption due availability. • Overall emissions reduced but risks leakage to 3rd countries due to demand • Potential income stream and adaptation co-benefits. Potential leakage effect, might not reduce actual emissions from production All within the agriculture sector
- 9. ‘reaching net-zero emissions will require a combination of approaches: increased efficiency, greater removals, & reduced production of high GHG-intensity products’
- 10. Drivers of change • changing environmental and climatic conditions to which farming systems need to adapt; • technological advancements to address challenges in the sector; • Markets that influence production and trade; • policy drivers that help shape the decisions made by Member States and farmers.
- 11. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu Consumption Meat consumption and production is a major source of GHGs; Reducing food waste is essential Environment Drives adaptation, not mitigation; Impacts crops more than livestock Technology Better application of existing techniques is as important as new developments; Public perception is key Technology Climate mitigation tech is still rare in agriculture; Rebound effect is a risk of efficiency gains Markets EU markets are complex and part of global commodity trade; Long supply chains limit reinvestment in the sector Policy Targets work; External policies have significant influence; Climate tends to be secondary focus of current CAP measures
- 12. Reaching net-zero emissions in the EU, whilst avoiding external impacts, is likely to require a more systematic change in the way we produce and consume food.
- 13. www.ieep.eu @IEEP_eu Thank you For more information about IEEP’s work on climate and agriculture or the NZ2050 project, please contact: ballen@ieep.eu +44(0)7421767684 @ecoboy79