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Exercising Essential Statistics Fourth Edition 4th Edition Evan Berman
Exercising Essential Statistics Fourth Edition 4th Edition Evan Berman
Exercising Essential Statistics
Fourth Edition
Exercising Essential Statistics
Fourth Edition
Evan Berman
Victoria University of Wellington
XiaoHu Wang
City University of Hong Kong
FOR INFORMATION:
CQ Press
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Copyright © 2018 by CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. CQ
Press is a registered trademark of Congressional Quarterly Inc.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any
form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying,
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permission in writing from the publisher.
Printed in the United States of America
ISBN: 978-1-5063-4895-7
All trademarks depicted within this book, including trademarks appearing as part of a screenshot,
figure, or other image are included solely for the purpose of illustration and are the property of their
respective holders. The use of the trademarks in no way indicates any relationship with, or endorsement
by, the holders of said trademarks. SPSS is a registered trademark of International Business Machines
Corporation. Excel is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation. All Excel screenshots in this
book are used with permission from Microsoft Corporation.
This book is printed on acid-free paper.
Acquisitions Editor: Carrie Brandon
Editorial Assistant: Duncan Marchbank
eLearning Editor: John Scappini
Production Editor: Bennie Clark Allen
Copy Editor: Sarah J. Duffy
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Cover Designer: Anupama Krishnan
Marketing Manager: Jennifer Jones
Contents
Introduction
Chapter 1 Why Statistics for Public Managers and Analysts?
Q & A
Critical Thinking
Application Exercises
Further Reading
Chapter 2 Research Design
Q & A
Critical Thinking
Application Exercises
Further Reading
Chapter 3 Conceptualization and Measurement
Q & A
Critical Thinking
Application Exercises
Further Reading
Chapter 4 Measuring and Managing Performance: Present and Future
Q & A
Critical Thinking
Application Exercises
Further Reading
Chapter 5 Data Collection
Q & A
Critical Thinking
Application Exercises
Further Reading
Chapter 6 Central Tendency
Q & A
Critical Thinking
Data-Based Exercises
Further Reading
Chapter 7 Measures of Dispersion
Q & A
Critical Thinking
Data-Based Exercises
Further Reading
Chapter 8 Contingency Tables
Q &A
Critical Thinking
Data-Based Exercises
Further Reading
Chapter 9 Getting Results
Q & A
Critical Thinking
Data-Based Exercises
Further Reading
Chapter 10 Introducing Inference: Estimation from Samples
Q & A
Critical Thinking
Data-Based Exercises
Further Reading
Chapter 11 Hypothesis Testing with Chi-Square
Q & A
Critical Thinking
Data-Based Exercises
Further Reading
Chapter 12 The T-Test
Q & A
Critical Thinking
Data-Based Exercises
Further Reading
Chapter 13 Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
Q & A
Critical Thinking
Data-Based Exercises
Further Reading
Chapter 14 Simple Regression
Q & A
Critical Thinking
Data-Based Exercises
Further Reading
Chapter 15 Multiple Regression
Q & A
Critical Thinking
Data-Based Exercises
Further Reading
Chapter 16 Logistic Regression and Time Series Regression
Q & A
Critical Thinking
Data-Based Exercises
Further Reading
Chapter 17 Survey of Other Techniques
Q & A
Critical Thinking
Data-Based Exercise
Further Reading
Chapter 18 Excel User’s Guide
Loading the Data Analysis ToolPak
Locating the Insert Function (fx)
The Excel Sheet Screen and Descriptive Statistics Procedure
Frequency Distributions
Chi-Square Test
One-Sample T-Test
Two-Samples T-Test
ANOVA
Regression
Creating Charts in Excel
Chapter 19 SPSS User’s Guide
SPSS Screens
Creating a Variable
Univariate Analysis: Means and Frequency Distributions
Variable Labels and Values
Defining Missing Values
Selecting a Subset of Observations for Analysis
Index Variables I: Cronbach Alpha
Index Variables II: Construction
Recoding Data
Hypothesis Testing with Chi-Square
T-Tests
Conclusion
Chapter 20 Dataset Documentation
Public Perceptions
General Description
Methods
Detailed Summary
Note on Variables
Survey Instrument: Orange County Citizen Survey
Employee Attitudes
General Description
Methods
Detailed Summary
Note on Variables
Survey Instrument: Seminole County Government Employee Survey
Community Indicators
General Description
Summary of Variables
Watershed
General Description
Background
Summary of Individual Variables: Condition Indicators
Summary of Individual Variables: Vulnerability Indicators
Productivity
General Description
Background
Summary of Variables
Crime
General Description
Background
Summary of Variables
Time
General Description
Summary of Variables
Florida County Conservation Spending Database
General Description
Background
Summary of Variables
Introduction
This workbook is an integral part of the Essential Statistics for Public
Managers and Policy Analysts, Fourth Edition, package. The textbook
introduces theory and concepts and offers many examples that show
relevance and application, and this workbook strengthens understanding by
illustrating applications and encouraging analysts to think through statistical
concepts in new and engaging ways. In short, practice makes perfect, and the
applications found here are key to mastering statistics.
Chapters 1 through 17 correspond to those in the textbook. The “Chapter
Objectives” at the beginning of each textbook chapter are a good guide to
what you will be practicing in each workbook chapter. To help students
understand new concepts, four sections are featured that target different
aspects of learning. Specifically, each of these chapters is divided into the
following sections:
“Q & A” facilitates student learning of the statistical concepts through
questions and answers. It is an ideal study guide for tests.
“Critical Thinking” consists of short exercises to stimulate further
conceptual insights into statistics and applications.
“Application Exercises” in Chapters 1–5 and “Data-Based Exercises” in
Chapters 6–17 help students develop hands-on skills using practical
applications. The exercises in Chapters 6–17 draw on datasets provided
on the companion website, http://study.sagepub.com/bermaness4e.
“Further Reading” lists work toward self-study in areas of interest to
readers, including articles that students may wish to access.
This workbook also includes chapters that extend the material covered in the
textbook. Chapter 18 is a user’s guide to essential statistics in Excel®.
Chapter 19 describes how to use SPSS, a statistical analysis program. It
provides a step-by-step approach for ease of learning. Chapter 20 provides
documentation for the datasets provided on the companion website. The
datasets are provided in SPSS®*, SAS, SYSTAT, and Stata formats for easy
use.
* SPSS is a registered trademark of International Business Machines
Corporation.
The data sets are available at the SAGE Publishing/CQ Press website:
http://study.sagepub.com/bermaness4e. If you have any difficulty
accessing the datasets, just email Sage at orders@sagepub.com or call Sage at
the number on this website. The datasets are the same as in the third edition,
and a new one has been added, “Florida Counties.” The website includes
bonus data, a complete report based on an actual citizen survey, as well as a
presentation in Microsoft PowerPoint, which will help users stretch their
imaginations as they think about how to present their data to others in the
public realm. The report and survey instrument are available electronically in
Microsoft Word for your convenience. A file discussing the use of
spreadsheets in public management and analysis, including examples in
Microsoft Excel, is also available.
We hope this workbook will help users in their learning. Moreover, we hope
they are able to readily apply some of these exercises to problems in their
workplaces.
Have a question or feedback? Just send us an e-mail, and we’ll be happy to
respond. Let us know what works for you and how we can further improve
this workbook. We look forward to hearing from you.
Evan Berman
evanmberman@gmail.com
XiaoHu Wang
xwang1989@gmail.com
Chapter 1 Why Statistics for Public
Managers and Analysts?
Q & A
1. Identify five ways in which analysis and data often are used.
The five ways are as follows: (1) to describe and analyze societal
problems, (2) to describe policies and programs, (3) to monitor progress
and prevent fraud, (4) to improve program operations, and (5) to
evaluate policy and program outcomes.
2. How does quantitative analysis assist in decision making?
Quantitative analysis provides a factual underpinning of situations and
responses by quantifying the extent of problems and situations and the
actual or likely impact of proposed strategies. At the very least, a focus
on facts and objective analysis can reduce judgment errors stemming
from overly impressionistic or subjective perceptions that are factually
incorrect.
3. Identify six competencies for analysis.
The six competencies are (1) being familiar with data sources in your
line of work, (2) being able to collect your own data, (3) analyzing data,
(4) communicating results from analysis, (5) bringing to quantitative
analysis the theory and practice of management and policy analysis, and
(6) having a strong sense of ethics relating to quantitative analysis.
4. What is scientific research?
Scientific research is the careful, systematic process of inquiry that leads
to the discovery or interpretation of facts, behaviors, and theories.
Scientific research is distinguished from personal and other forms of
research or inquiry by rather strict standards for accepting new facts and
theories as knowledge and by a process that includes other scientists in
making such determinations.
5. What is statistics?
Statistics is the body of systematic knowledge and practice that provides
standards and procedures for drawing conclusions from one’s data.
Statistics includes specific tools for analyzing data, too.
6. Identify four stages of proficiency in quantitative analysis.
The four stages of proficiency are know-nothing, journeyman,
technocrat, and sophisticated expert. Each stage is associated with
distinct development objectives.
7. What three areas of ethical concern are identified in connection with
analysis?
The three areas are as follows: (1) fully disclosing the purposes of
analysis, (2) integrity in analysis and communication, and (3) concern
for the impact of analysis and research on the welfare of human subjects.
8. What is scientific misconduct?
Scientific misconduct is generally understood as the violation of the
standard norms of scholarly conduct and ethical behavior in scientific
research. Scientific misconduct, when considered by others to be
significant or severe, can diminish one’s reputation and negatively affect
one’s career, including the possibility of dismissal from one’s job and
adverse legal action.
9. What is the specific problem of dual purposes?
Analysts must balance potentially conflicting purposes of (1) furthering
programs and policies and (2) establishing objective truths about how
well a program is performing.
10. Which practices are associated with furthering the integrity of analysis
and communication?
Analysts should be honest, objective, accurate, and complete. Analysts
should not hide facts, change data, falsify results, or consider only data
that support a favored conclusion. Analysts should also fully report the
sources of their data, data collection methodologies, and any possible
gaps and shortfalls, and they should assess the impact of such
shortcomings on their findings. Results should be presented in
straightforward and nonmisleading ways. These norms provide essential
guidance to analysts throughout the entire analytical process.
11. What concern should analysts have for the impact of research on the
welfare of human subjects?
Researchers and analysts should recognize and minimize the potential
harm that their research and analysis could have on research subjects.
Most human subjects research is now subject to oversight by
institutional review boards to ensure that risks to subjects are reasonable
and that possible harm is identified and minimized.
Critical Thinking
Note to students: These questions further understanding of selected key
points made in the textbook. Questions in the next section, “Application
Exercises,” are designed to encourage application of the key points in
practice.
1. What is the difference between describing the extent of a social
problem and describing the factors that give rise to it? Give an
example. How can the latter be useful for developing programs and
policies?
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
2. What is the role of statistics in connection with the six competencies
mentioned in the text? What else might be needed to attain these
competencies?
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
3. Many programs produce routine, administrative data that are used
to monitor progress and prevent fraud. How useful are such data
for the five common uses of analysis and data mentioned in the text?
What other data might be needed, such as might be obtained from
citizen or client surveys?
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
4. Identify a person or situation associated with each of the four stages
of proficiency in quantitative analysis.
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
5. Explain how the following concerns of ethics can affect research and
its utilization: (1) dual purposes, (2) full disclosure, (3) truthfulness,
(4) alternative explanations, (5) communication, and (6) well-being
of human subjects. Give examples of each.
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
Application Exercises
Note to students: This section is called Data-Based Exercises in later chapters
(starting in Chapter 6) and will provide you with hands-on exercises that
involve real datasets.
1. Identify five problems or challenges in your area of interest that
would benefit from analysis or research.
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
____________________________________________________________________
2. Identify at least two examples, in your area of interest, of each of the
five common uses of analysis and data.
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
3. What data exist in your area of interest? Are there any datasets
with which managers and analysts are expected to be familiar?
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
4. At what stage of proficiency do you see yourself? What is necessary
to get beyond this stage? Develop some learning objectives for
yourself.
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
5. Explain how a customer or citizen survey might be useful in your
area of interest. What topics might such a survey address? What
challenges do you foresee?
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
6. (a) Consider the following proposition: “Almost every department
needs people with analytical skills.” Verify this proposition by
interviewing managers in your area of interest. Which analytical
skills do they say that they are looking for? (b) Research salaries at
the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Industry-Specific
Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates, at
www.bls.gov/oes/current/oessrci.htm, and compare wages for
occupations that vary in analytical content, for example,
management positions in budgeting, information technology, human
resource management, and parks and recreation.
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
7. Identify and consider some ethical situations that would challenge
the integrity of your analysis and research, such as being asked to
withhold relevant information. How might you deal with such
situations?
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
8. Research the policies and practices that pertain to ethics in research
in your agency or in an agency in your area of interest. If there are
none, suggest two or three that would serve as a foundation for a
more extensive set of policies.
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________
Further Reading
Various books offer additional information about the importance and uses of
research and analysis in public service. A popular book is Eugene Bardach,
Practical Guide for Policy Analysis: The Eightfold Path to More Effective
Problem Solving, 5th ed. (Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 2015). A rather
different approach is William Dunn, Public Policy Analysis: An Introduction
(New York: Prentice Hall, 2016). Scholarship about the use of policy analysis
and research traces back to the development of policy analysis as a field in
the 1970s and efforts to get public agencies to use it in the 1970s and 1980s.
A classic text about the use of analysis is Aaron Wildavski, Speaking Truth to
Power: The Art and Craft of Policy Analysis (Piscataway, N.J.: Transaction,
1987). Since then, research has focused varyingly on the capacity of
government organizations to develop or have policy research and analysis
capabilities, and the utilization of such knowledge in their decision-making
processes.
Different events and contexts lead to different foci in research. In recent
years, a focus has been the utilization of “evidenced-based” policy, resulting
from increased capacity of performance measurement (see Chapter 4) and
policy analysis. A representative article in this genre is Gary VanLandingham
and Torey Silloway, “Bridging the Gap between Evidence and Policy
Makers: A Case Study of the Pew-MacArthur Results First Initiative,” Public
Administration Review 76 (2016): 542–546, and, somewhat older, Michael
Howlett, “Policy Analytical Capacity and Evidence-Based Policy-Making:
Lessons from Canada,” Canadian Public Administration 52 (2009): 153–175.
While the use of evidence is ever more popular, concerns are growing as
well; see Holger Strassheim and Pekka Kettunen, “When Does Evidence-
Based Policy Turn into Policy-Based Evidence?” Evidence & Policy: A
Journal of Research, Debate and Practice 10 (2014): 259–277. As these
articles suggest, the problem of research utilization is found throughout the
world. An older, award-winning article is Réjean Landry, Moktar Lamari,
and Nabil Amara, “The Extent and Determinants of the Utilization of
University Research in Government Agencies,” Public Administration
Review 63 (March/April 2003): 192–205. This article received the Louis
Brownlow Award from the American Society for Public Administration for
the best article published in Public Administration Review in 2003. Earlier,
the focus was on the development of performance measurement. See, for
example, Evan Berman and XiaoHu Wang, “Performance Measurement in
U.S. Counties: Capacity for Reform,” Public Administration Review 60
(September/October 2000): 409–420, which reflects the then-growing
development of performance measures in local government. But as times
change, so, too, does research.
A classic book about the ethics of analysis is Darrell Huff, How to Lie with
Statistics (New York: Norton, 1993, 1954). Other books on this topic are Joel
Best, More Damned Lies and Statistics: How Numbers Confuse Public Issues
(Berkeley: University of California Press, 2012, 2001) and Matthew
Robinson and Renee G. Scherlen, Lies, Damned Lies, and Drug War
Statistics: A Critical Analysis of Claims Made by the Office of National Drug
Control Policy (Albany: State University of New York Press, 2014). As the
progress of these titles shows, the genre is getting ever more tailored around
specific topics. The National Institutes of Health website provides
educational materials that discuss protections for human subjects, which is
applicable to all types of research, including studies that public policy
managers and analysts might conduct that involve humans in some way, for
example, by administering surveys. Training materials related to approval
processes for such research (such as by institutional review boards that are
found at many research centers and universities) may also be found on the
web (see, for example, http://osp.od.nih.gov/office-clinical-research-and-
bioethics-policy).
Chapter 2 Research Design
Note to students: This chapter includes questions and exercises relating to the
textbook introduction to Section II (Research Methods), indicated by SI
(Section Introduction).
Q & A
1. What is research methodology? (SI)
Research methodology is the science of methods for investigating
phenomena. Research methods are used in almost every social science
discipline and can be applied to many different kinds of problems,
including those found in public and nonprofit management and analysis.
2. What is basic research? What is applied research? (SI)
Basic research is a research activity whose purpose is to develop new
knowledge about phenomena such as problems, events, programs or
policies, and their relationships. Applied research is a research activity
whose purpose is to develop knowledge for addressing practical
problems.
3. What are quantitative research methods? What are qualitative
research methods? (SI)
Quantitative research methods involve the collection of data that can be
analyzed using statistical methods. The purpose of quantitative research
is to quantify the magnitude of phenomena, to provide statistical
evidence about factors affecting these phenomena, and to quantify the
impacts of programs and policies. Qualitative research methods involve
the collection and analysis of words, symbols, or artifacts that are
largely nonstatistical in nature. Typically, the purpose of qualitative
research is to identify and describe new phenomena and their
relationships.
4. What are variables?
Variables are empirically observable phenomena that vary.
5. What are attributes?
Attributes are the specific characteristics of a variable, that is, the
specific ways in which a variable can vary. All variables have attributes.
For example, the variable “gender” has two attributes: male and female.
6. How is descriptive analysis different from the study of relationships?
Descriptive analysis provides information about (the level of) individual
variables, whereas the study of relationships provides information about
the relationships among variables.
7. Define the terms independent variable and dependent variable.
All causal relationships have independent and dependent variables. The
dependent variable is the variable that is affected (caused) by one or
more independent variables. Independent variables are variables that
cause an effect on other variables but are not themselves shaped by other
variables.
8. What is a causal relationship, and how is it different from an
association?
Most studies describe relationships among variables. When relationships
are causal, one variable is said to be the cause of another. When
variables are only associated with each other, no effort is made to
identify patterns of causation.
9. What is required for establishing a claim of causality?
To establish causality, there must be both empirical correlation and a
plausible theory that explains how these variables are causally related.
10. What is a hypothesis?
A hypothesis is a relationship that has not yet been tested empirically.
11. What six steps are involved in program evaluation?
The six steps are as follows: (1) defining program goals and activities,
(2) identifying which key relationships will be studied, (3) determining
what type of research design will be used, (4) defining and measuring
study concepts, (5) collecting and analyzing program data, and (6)
presenting study findings.
12. What are rival hypotheses? What are control variables?
Rival hypotheses state threats to the credibility of study conclusions.
Control variables are variables used in empirical research to evaluate
rival hypotheses.
13. Explain the role of statistics in determining the impact of rival
hypotheses (or control variables) on program outcomes.
The impact of rival hypotheses can seldom be ascertained through
research design alone. Statistics, then, are used to examine these
impacts. (Statistics are also used for other purposes, explained in
subsequent chapters of Essential Statistics for Public Managers and
Policy Analysts.)
14. How are quasi-experimental designs different from classic,
randomized experiments?
In a classic experimental design, participants are randomly assigned to
either a control or an experimental group. The only systematic difference
between the groups is that study group participants receive an
intervention (called a stimulus, such as a therapy, subsidy, or training).
Any outcome differences between these two groups are then attributed
to the systematic difference—the treatment. Such testing conditions are
seldom possible in public management and policy. Quasi-experimental
designs are imperfect research designs that may lack baselines,
comparison groups, or randomization, which are present in classic,
randomized experiments.
15. What are threats to external validity?
Threats to external validity are those that jeopardize the generalizability
of study conclusions to other situations. These threats often concern
unique features of the study population or research design.
16. What are threats to internal validity?
Threats to internal validity are those that jeopardize study conclusions
about whether an intervention in fact caused a difference in the study
population. These threats often question the logic of study conclusions.
Critical Thinking
1. Give examples of basic and applied research questions that might be
raised in the context of (1) a program to reduce adult illiteracy and
(2) a program that fights international terrorism. (SI)
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
2. Why are both quantitative and qualitative methods indispensable in
addressing questions of basic and applied research? (SI)
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
3. Give some examples of variables. Why are variables key to
research?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
4. A program aims to reduce adult illiteracy by providing reading
sessions during evening hours. Identify the dependent and
independent variables.
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
5. A study examines the impact of gender and drug use on school
performance and political orientations. Identify the dependent and
independent variables.
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
6. It is said that in Sweden an empirical association exists between the
presence of storks and the incidence of new babies. Explain what is
necessary to establish a claim of causation. Do storks really bring
babies?
_________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
7. A study examines the relationship between race and crime. Is this a
causal relationship or an association? Explain.
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
8. Apply the following statement to program evaluation: “Research
begins with asking questions.” Think about a program that you
know about as a basis for answering this question.
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
9. The developers of the adult literacy program mentioned in question
4 claim that the program is effective. By what measures might this
effectiveness be demonstrated?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
10. What might be some rival hypotheses regarding the effectiveness of
this adult literacy program?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
11. Discuss an experimental research design for testing the effectiveness
of an anger management program. Then apply the three quasi-
experimental designs mentioned in Box 2.2 in the text.
_________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
Application Exercises
1. Give examples of basic and applied research questions in your area
of interest. (SI)
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
2. Give examples of quantitative and qualitative research methods in
your area of interest. (SI)
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__________________________________________________________________
3. Consider the following variables: the number of immigrants,
attitudes toward abortion, and environmental pollution. What
might be some attributes of each of the variables?
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4. You have been asked to develop a neighborhood crime control
program. Thinking ahead, you develop a strategy for evaluating the
program in subsequent months and years. Define the program and
identify dependent and independent variables that can be used to
evaluate it.
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5. Identify a problem in your area of interest. Identify the dependent
and one or more independent variables affecting this problem.
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6. Consider a program or policy in your area of interest. How do the
specific issues raised in the text regarding program evaluation apply
to your program or policy? For instance, give some examples of how
difficult it can be to document program outcomes.
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7. Discuss how you can apply the six steps of program evaluation to a
specific program in your area of interest.
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8. Find an article that discusses a specific program evaluation and
identify in it each of the six steps of program evaluation.
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9. Identify some rival hypotheses (control variables) that might affect
conclusions about the effectiveness of an adult literacy program.
Then, discuss how an experimental research design and several
quasi-experimental designs might be helpful for determining the
effectiveness of the program.
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10. Define the objectives of a job training program, and then identify
some rival hypotheses regarding possible outcomes. Explain how
baselines and comparison groups might be used.
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Further Reading
The all-time, best-selling, easy-to-read general textbook on research methods
in social science (general) is Earl Babbie, The Practice of Social Research,
14th ed. or later (Belmont, Calif.: Wadsworth, 2016). A book with a focus on
statistics in public administration is Maureen Berner, Statistics for Public
Administration: Practical Uses for Better Decision Making, 2nd ed.
(Washington, D.C.: ICMA, 2013). A variety of books on program evaluation
may be found readily online, and we encourage readers to choose one. An
example is David Royse, Bruce A. Thyer, and Deborah K. Padgett, Program
Evaluation: An Introduction to an Evidence-Based Approach, 6th ed.
(Boston, Mass.: Cengage, 2015). Another source with applications in public
administration is Kathryn E. Newcomer, Harry P. Hatry, and Joseph S.
Wholey (Eds.), Handbook of Practical Program Evaluation, 4th ed. (San
Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2015). A classic book on program evaluation is Peter
Rossi, Mark W. Lipsey, and Howard E. Freeman, Evaluation: A Systematic
Approach, 7th ed. or later (Thousand Oaks, Calif.: Sage, 2003), but that book
is now getting dated.
Research methods are used widely in scholarly research, of course. The
Journal of Policy Analysis and Management publishes many articles that
evaluate specific programs and policies. Some of these articles, though not
all, are grounded in economic thought. Policy journals are doing well these
days, and many fields have their own policy journals, such as Education
Policy, Transport Policy, Space Policy, Environmental Policy and
Governance, Research Policy, and so on. Also, most empirical articles in the
leading journals in public administration, political science, and nonprofit
management use the terminology of independent, dependent, and control
variables discussed in this chapter. You should have no problem picking up
any leading scholarly journal in your field and finding these terms used. A
few studies in public and nonprofit management and policy analysis use
comparison groups and quasi-experimental designs, but most rely on
statistical techniques to account for control variables. These techniques are
discussed later in the textbook.
Chapter 3 Conceptualization and
Measurement
Q & A
1. What is a scale?
A scale is the collection of attributes that is used to measure a specific
variable. Scales are important because they define the nature of
information about variables.
2. What is a nominal-level scale? What is an ordinal-level scale?
A nominal-level scale exhibits no ordering among the categories. The
variable “region” is an example of a variable with a nominal scale. An
ordinal-level scale exhibits order among categories, though without
exact distances between successive categories. Likert scales are
examples of ordinal scales. Variables with ordinal- or nominal-level
scales are called categorical (or discrete) variables.
3. What is an interval-level scale? What is a ratio-level scale?
Interval- and ratio-level scales exhibit both order and distance among
categories. The only difference between interval and ratio scales is that
the latter have a true zero. Income is an example of a ratio-level variable
when it is measured in actual dollars; someone who earns $75,000 per
year makes exactly three times that of someone making $25,000, and it
is possible to make $0 (no income). The distinction between ratio- and
interval-level variables is typically of little relevance to public and
nonprofit administration and policy analysis. Variables with interval-
and ratio-level scales are also called continuous variables.
4. What are incomplete, ambiguous, and overlapping scales? Why must
they be avoided?
An incomplete scale omits response categories, an ambiguous scale has
ill-defined response categories, and an overlapping scale has at least one
response that is covered by more than one category. Incomplete,
ambiguous, and overlapping scales should be avoided because they have
limited measurement validity.
5. Define and contrast the terms variable and concept.
Variables are empirically observable phenomena that vary, whereas
concepts are abstract ideas. Variables are observed directly; concepts are
observed indirectly (through variables).
6. Describe the two steps involved in concept measurement.
Concept measurement involves two steps: first, the process of specifying
all relevant dimensions of concepts (conceptualization) and, second, the
process of specifying which variables will be used to measure
(operationalization). Complex concepts and those that are key to the
research design are usually conceptualized with greater rigor than are
those that are simple or less key to the program or evaluation.
7. What three strategies of operationalization are mentioned in the text?
Three approaches to operationalization are (1) to develop separate
measures for each dimension, (2) to develop a single set of measures
that encompass the dimensions, and (3) to develop a single measure.
These three strategies reflect a declining order of rigor.
8. What is the theorem of the interchangeability of indicators, and why is
it important?
The theorem of the interchangeability of indicators states that if several
measures are equally valid indicators of a concept, then any subset of
these measures will be valid as well. In other words, there are many
valid ways to measure a given concept. This theorem is important
because it implies that the analyst’s task is to choose one approach and
then justify that that approach is a valid one.
9. What is an index variable?
An index variable is a variable that combines the values of other
variables into a single indicator or score. Index variables are commonly
used to empirically measure abstract concepts and multifaceted
phenomena.
10. How are index variables constructed?
Index variables are constructed by summing the values of variables that
measure distinct, though related, aspects of the concept. When a value of
one or more measurement variable(s) is missing, the respective value of
the index variable is also missing. (See Table 3.2 in the textbook for an
example.)
11. Name four strategies for validating index variables.
First, analysts argue that their measurement variables are reasonable
from a theoretical perspective (that is, they have content validity).
Second, they show that, empirically, index measures have an appropriate
range of values. Third, they show that the variables are correlated with
each other (that is, they have high internal reliability). Fourth, index
variables can be compared with other known measures, derived from
external (other studies) or internal (the same study) sources.
Respectively, these are referred to as criterion and construct validity.
12. What is Cronbach alpha? What values are acceptable?
Cronbach alpha, also called measure alpha, is a measure of internal
reliability. This is the extent to which measurement variables are
correlated with each other. Variables that measure the same concept are
assumed to correlate with each other. Alpha values between 0.80 and
1.00 are considered good, values between 0.70 and 0.80 are acceptable,
and values below 0.70 are poor and indicate a need for analysts to
consider a different mix of measurement variables that measure their
concept.
Critical Thinking
1. Explain the following statement: “Scales should encompass all of the
possible values that a variable can assume.”
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2. Explain the following statement. “Continuous-level scales are
preferred over ordinal-level scales, which in turn are preferred over
nominal-level scales.”
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3. Explain how measurement scales (for example, Likert scales) can
affect the phrasing of survey questions.
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4. The text states that “no correct number of dimensions or variables
exist, only bad or lacking ones.” Explain this statement.
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5. The text distinguishes three approaches to operationalization. When
should the most rigorous approach be used? When should the least
rigorous approach be used?
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6. A study wishes to measure “citizen trust in government” through
the number of lawsuits filed against the federal government.
Evaluate the measurement validity of this approach.
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7. Explain the theorem of the interchangeability of indicators.
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8. Explain the following statement: “When one or more of the
measurement variables are missing from an observation, the value
of the index variables for that observation is missing, too.” What are
the pros and cons of guessing the values of missing observations?
Why should this not be done?
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9. Explain the following concepts, and give an example of each: (1)
face validity, (2) construct validity, (3) criterion validity, and (4)
content validity.
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10. Explain the following statement: “Analysts usually collect a few
more variables than are minimally needed because they cannot
know, prior to reliability analysis, which variable mix will have a
sufficiently high alpha score to lend empirical support for the index
measure.”
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Application Exercises
1. Examine the citizen survey in the documentation for the Public
Perceptions dataset, in Chapter 20 of this workbook. What level of
measurement scale is used for the different items?
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2. Give some examples of nominal-, ordinal-, interval-, and ratio-level
variables in your area of interest.
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3. An analyst wishes to measure public support for a new welfare
program. (1) Develop some suitable measures using Likert items on
a survey. (2) Show how incomplete, ambiguous, and overlapping
scales create problems of measurement validity.
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4. A survey of citizens assesses the extent to which they perceive that
the federal government works democratically. A second study
measures the extent to which the governments of different countries
are democratic. Conceptualize democracy in each of these two study
contexts.
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5. Develop an index variable to measure “fear of statistics” among
students in public and nonprofit management. Then develop an
index variable to measure a concept in your area of interest.
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6. Select a sample of six Government Accountability Office reports
(see Box 2.1 in the text) or scholarly articles that use empirical data.
Examine how these reports or articles address the matter of
measurement validity.
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7. Develop some measures that might be used in a study that assesses a
neighborhood crime control program. Discuss some challenges of
measurement validity as well as strategies for dealing with these
challenges.
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Further Reading
Conceptualization and measurement are typically discussed in books on
research methods and program evaluation, and readers are referred to those
mentioned in Chapter 2 of this workbook.
It is instructive to consider articles that show different approaches to
operationalizing study concepts. An example of the first approach to
operationalization discussed in the text (measures of different dimensions
combined in separate indices and subsequently aggregated into a “super”
index) is XiaoHu Wang, Christopher V. Hawkins, Nick Lebredo, and Evan
M. Berman, “Capacity to Sustain Sustainability: A Study of U.S. Cities,”
Public Administration Review 72 (2012): 841–853. This study shows index
measures of environmental sustainability practices, economic sustainability
practices, and social sustainability practices. Each of these measures is
composed of 10 or more survey items, and each of these index measures is
subsequently aggregated into a super index of “sustainability.” A similar
approach is taken on a very different topic in Evan M. Berman and Jonathan
P. West, “Managing Emotional Intelligence in U.S. Cities: A Study of Public
Managers,” Public Administration Review 68 (2008) 742–758. This article
shows how “emotional intelligence” is conceptualized using four dimensions.
The scientific literature is full of such examples on a broad range of topics,
including environmental sustainability, organizational inclusion,
neighborhood safety, and others. Many articles also validate their index
measures such as through triangulation. You may want to research your
library’s resources for articles that show indexes in your area of interest.
Chapter 4 Measuring and Managing
Performance: Present and Future
Q & A
1. What is performance measurement?
Performance measurement provides a real-time assessment of what a
program is doing, what resources it is using, and what it has
accomplished recently. As an analytical process, it is designed to
produce such information on an ongoing basis; it provides a snapshot
that integrates important, frequently quantitative information about
programs and policies. Performance measurement helps managers
improve program monitoring and accountability and, by focusing on
measurable results, improve program performance and stakeholder
satisfaction, too.
2. How is performance measurement related to program evaluation?
Whereas program evaluation focuses on the past (what has a program or
policy achieved?), performance measurement focuses on the present
(what is a program or policy achieving?). Performance measurement
developed from program evaluation. While thorough, program
evaluation can be quite cumbersome and hence may produce
information that is neither ongoing nor timely for management purposes.
By contrast, performance measurement aims to be an up-to-date
management information system.
3. What is the logic model?
The logic model is a way of conceptualizing program performance that
shows relationships among inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes, and
goals. (See Chapter 4 in the textbook for a schematic model.)
4. What is the difference between outputs and outcomes?
Outputs are the immediate, direct results of program activities.
Outcomes are specific changes in behaviors or conditions that are
measures of goal attainment.
5. What problem of measurement validity is mentioned in the text in
connection with performance measurement, and how is it addressed?
Performance measures should avoid problems of inaccurate or
incomplete measurement. In practice, performance measures do have
these problems, and managers need to be clear about what their
performance measures include and what they do not. Performance
measures are best regarded as indicators only, to be used in conjunction
with other, often qualitative information about programs and policies.
6. What is effectiveness?
Effectiveness is the level of results of a program or treatment. It is
typically measured by one or more output or outcome measures.
7. What is efficiency?
Efficiency is the unit cost to produce a good or service. It is calculated
as the output or outcomes over inputs, or O/I. Efficiency indicators can
be calculated in different ways and should reflect program management
concerns.
8. What are workload ratios?
Workload ratios are the ratios of activities over inputs, or A/I. For
example, a workload ratio is the number of students in anger
management courses per teacher providing such courses. Distinguishing
between workload ratios and efficiency measures is important: a high
caseload of clients does not mean that they are being served well.
9. What are benchmarks?
Benchmarks are standards against which performance is measured.
Internal benchmarks are standards that organizations select based on
what their own prior programs have achieved or on what they feel is
appropriate. External benchmarks are standards that are set based on the
performance of other organizations and programs.
10. What are equity measures?
Equity measures are used to compare performance across different
groups. Often, output and outcome measures can be analyzed for
different populations, types of organizations, and the like.
11. What is performance management?
Performance management is generally defined as activities to ensure that
goals are consistently being met in an effective and efficient manner.
Activities include using performance measures for improving
accountability, service delivery, and managerial decision making, which
is our focus here. Performance analysis is used in performance
management to gain an understanding of program performance and the
factors affecting it.
12. What is forecasting? How is it related to planning?
A forecast is a prediction about the future. This is sometimes also called
a projection or prognosis. Forecasting is different from planning;
whereas forecasting discusses what the future will look like, planning
provides a normative model of what the future should look like.
Planning often starts with forecasting to establish what the future is
likely to look like in order to develop alternative futures or scenarios
that might be preferred.
13. How are statistical methods used for forecasting?
Statistical methods typically describe and aim to extrapolate quantitative
trends based on past and present data. Analysis can involve no more
than the simple extrapolation of the past few data points, but it can also
analyze complex cyclical patterns and model other variables affecting
past and present levels.
14. What are judgment-based methods of forecasting?
Judgment-based methods of forecasting often use experts to assess the
likelihood of futures occurring. Experts can be brought together in
groups or as individuals. For example, the Delphi method is a
forecasting method that asks experts to respond anonymously through
several rounds of written surveys.
15. What are some key practices and standards for making forecasts?
Forecasts are more reliable for shorter periods; forecasting should use
multiple methods; data and experts should be as up-to-date and valid as
possible; forecasts should use as much information as possible about the
past, present, and future; assumptions and limitations should be stated
clearly; the accuracy of forecasts should be determined wherever
possible; forecasts of more complex methods are not always more
accurate than simple ones; forecasting should begin by identifying a full
range of possible future scenarios and events; forecasting should note
unusual past events that affect past data and adjust forecasts or the data
accordingly; and forecasters should expect their forecasts to be
challenged.
Critical Thinking
1. How is a system of key indicators such as performance
measurement different from a system of comprehensive
measurement?
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__________________________________________________________________
2. Explain how performance measurement provides useful
information about programs and policies, even if it is not free from
measurement errors.
__________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
3. Is the number of arrests by police officers an activity, an output, or
an outcome? Explain your answer.
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__________________________________________________________________
4. Give an example of the distinction between efficiency and a
workload ratio not mentioned in the text.
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__________________________________________________________________
5. Examine the measures in Table 4.1 in the textbook. Can you
improve on these? Can you identify other measures? In what way
might inaccurate or incomplete data affect these measures?
__________________________________________________________________
__________________________________________________________________
Exploring the Variety of Random
Documents with Different Content
Belgian coasts, the waters through which most of the world's trade
must pass," cried Haeseler enthusiastically.
"But that would mean annexation of Belgium and Holland,"
demanded Franz.
Count Haeseler, having instructions not to answer questions of
that kind, bent over a series of maps illustrating the history of
Frederick the Second, while the War Lord, disregarding the question,
commanded curtly: "The strategic points, please."
Count Haeseler traced them at the end of a blue pencil:
"King Frederick planned a quick march from the Rhine through
Belgium, forcing Liége, then the capital of an ecclesiastical
principality, and pouncing upon Nieuport on the North Sea. Next, he
intended to attack Dunkirk and Gravelines. Then to Calais. His final
objective point was Paris, of course."
"Never heard of such a plan," said Franz.
"Because at Frederick's time these territories were an apanage
of the Habsburgs," volunteered the War Lord. "Proceed, Haeseler."
"I can only reassert what I have submitted to Your Majesty
more than once—namely, that King Frederick's plan is as sound to-
day as at the time——"
"When Prussia presented England with Canada and made
secure her Empire in India," interrupted the War Lord. "And isn't she
grateful for the inestimable services rendered by us with a generous
heart?" he continued, warming his thighs and his wrath at the gas
logs. "Won't allow us to acquire coaling stations in any part of the
world. Shuts the door in our face in Africa, Asia and America, and
supports with treasure and blood, if necessary, any scheme intended
to impede Germany's progress, territorially and economically.
"We depend for our very life on foreign trade, yet England
would restrict us to the Baltic and a few yards of North Sea coast.
"Franz," he cried, rising and holding out his hand, "I will turn
the Adriatic into an inland lake for the Emperor of the Slavs if you
will help me secure the French Channel coast line, the north-eastern
districts and the continental shores of the Straits of Dover. Is it a
bargain?"
Franz, too, had risen, and was about to clasp the War Lord's
hand when his eye lit upon the field-marshal. "You bound me to
secrecy," he said doggedly, "yet our private pourparlers seem to be
property of your General Staff."
"The heads of my General Staff know as much as I want them
to, Herr von Este, no more, no less," replied the War Lord in a
strident voice. Then, in less serious mood: "Come, now, the
Kapellmeister does not play all the instruments, does he? and don't
you think I have more important things to do than worry over charts
and maps and figures. That is his work," inclining his head toward
the field-marshal.
When Franz the Sullen still withheld acquiescence the War Lord
continued in a bantering tone: "He is preparing the way, is Haeseler.
While at Strassburg and neighbourhood, take a look at his sixteenth
army corps, kneaded and knocked into invincibility by him. If there is
a superior war machine, then our Blücher was beaten at Waterloo.
Let his boys once get across the French frontier—they will never
again leave La Belle France. Haeseler catechism!"
And more in the same boastful martinet vein, winding up with
the promise of sending to the Austrian heir de luxe editions of
Haeseler's contributions to the General Staff history of the Franco-
German War and of his technical writings on cavalry exercises and
war discipline—a sure way of pleasing Franz. Yet it was patent
enough that the Jesuit disciple was only half mollified. Desperate
means were in order!
"I tell you what"—the War Lord dropped his voice—"I will lend
you Haeseler for a fortnight or a month. Invite him to Konopischt"
(the Austrian heir's Hungarian seat) "and find out everything. What
he doesn't know about horse, foot and artillery, especially horse, is
not worth knowing."
At last Franz's face lit up. "I'll take you at your word," he said
warmly.
Franz's thirst for military knowledge was insatiable. He had read
most of the books, ancient and modern, on the science of war; had
consulted all living army leaders of the day; was, of course, in
constant communication with his own General Staff; and knew the
methods of the Austrian, Russian, German and Spanish cavalry, both
by practice and observation, since he took his honorary
proprietorship of the Bavarian Heavy Troopers, the Saxon Lancers,
the Russian 26th Dragoons and the Spanish Mounted Chasseurs very
seriously. But to have Haeseler for private mentor and adviser, to be
hand and glove with the premier cavalry expert of the world, at one
time apprentice of Frederick Charles, the Red Prince, was indeed a
priceless privilege.
"Will you come?" he asked Haeseler.
"Oh yes, he is coming, don't you worry," cried the War Lord,
even before Haeseler finished the phrase: "At your Imperial
Highness's command."
"His Excellency shall demonstrate to me that the offensive
partnership you propose will be to mutual advantage," said Franz
quickly, to forestall possible further arguments on the exchange of
the Italian Adriatic for the French-Belgian-Dutch Channel coasts.
CHAPTER XVII
DIAMOND CUT DIAMOND
The War Lord's Secret Staircase—Some Outspoken
Opinions—Royal Fisticuffs—Otto of Bavaria—A Secret
Service Man—More Dreams
The reports of two meetings between exalted personages, held on
the eve of the day memorable for the conference at the General
Staff building, would furnish a clever editor with "deadly parallels" of
vast interest.
Dramatis personæ of one meeting: The War Lord and Bülow.
Scene: The library of the Frederick Leopold Palace, nearly opposite
the Chancellory.
Meeting number two: Franz von Este and Lorenz Schlauch,
Cardinal Archbishop of Gross Wardein, Hungary. Scene: A private
parlour in the Hôtel de Rome, near the Schloss.
The pall of secrecy hung over both trysting places. Cardinal
Schlauch, of his Hungarian Majesty's most obnoxious Opposition,
would have lost caste with his followers if seen with the "Habsburg
Nero," and the latter would have had a strenuous quart d'heure with
Francis Joseph had "Uncle" known of his intimacy with Schlauch.
Hence the room at the hotel, and Adolph Muehling, guard of honour,
outside the door.
Why press the old proprietor into service, when a word to the
Commandant of Berlin would have brought sentinels galore?
Because Count Udo von Wedell, head of the German Secret
Service, occasionally unloads a uniformed stenographer on an
unsuspecting, but suspected, visitor to Berlin; and, Udo failing,
Captain von Tappken, his right-hand man, might be tempted to do
so. Spy mistrusts spy, you know.
On his part the War Lord was as anxious to keep his conference
with Bülow from Franz, as Este was to invent excuses for wishing a
night free from social duties or official business. Accordingly Wilhelm
had twice changed the programme.
His first idea was to receive Bülow at the Schloss. No; Franz
might hear of it. His valet (Father Bauer) was singularly well supplied
with money, and royal lackeys (confound them!) prefer trinkgeld to
medals, even. Again, he might drive to the Wilhelmstrasse himself, if
it were not for those penny-a-liners at the Kaiserhof, a whole
contingent of them, bent on getting coin out of nothing. Already
vague hints at an incognito royal visitor had appeared in one or two
gutter journals.
"Augustus tells me that Frederick Leopold had his Berlin house
thoroughly overhauled. Nothing unusual about inspecting the
renovated lair of the Prussian Croesus?" suggested Prince Phili
Eulenburg. He referred, of course, to the Grand Master of Ceremony
and the Lord of Klein-Glenicke, the War Lord's cousin and brother-in-
law.
"By Jove, you are almost too smart for an ambassador, Phili,"
cried Majesty; "you deserve a wider field, the Wilhelmstrasse or the
Governorship of Klein-Popo should be yours. Meanwhile, and until
one of those posts becomes vacant, 'phone Bülow to meet me in
Leopold's library at nine sharp. Moltke shall send six men of the First
Guards to investigate garden and all, and they will remain for
corridor duty. Augustus, of course, must communicate with Leopold's
maître d'hôtel."
At 8.55 P.M. the War Lord, in mufti, fur collar of his great-coat
hugging the tops of his ears, slipped down the secret staircase
leading from his apartments to a side door, and into Count von
Wedell's quiet coupé. The Secret Service man who acted as groom
had mapped out a circuitous route, avoiding the Linden and
Charlottenstrasse.
When the carriage passed the Kaiserhof the War Lord could not
resist the temptation to bend forward. "Udo," he said, "are you not
ashamed of yourself, robbing these poor devils at the journalists'
table? If they knew how I am suffering in your springless cab—oh,
but it does hurt!—it would mean at least ten marks in their pocket."
"Confound their impudence," said Count von Wedell. "But Your
Majesty's criticism of the coupé is most à propos—just in time to
insert the item for a new one in the appropriation."
"The devil!" cried the War Lord. "I thought this ramshackle
chariot your personal property."
Wilhelm likes to spend other people's money, but with State
funds it is different, for every pfennig spent for administration
reduces the total His Majesty "acquires."
True, Prussia spells despotism tempered by Parliament, but her
kings can never forget the good old times when appropriations for
the Court were only limited by the State's utmost resources.
"My own!" gasped Wedell. "Would I dare worry Your Majesty's
sacred bones in an ark like this?"
The carriage entered the palace stableyard, the gates of which
opened noiselessly in obedience to a significant crack of the whip.
Sentinels posted inside and out, civil service men in frock-coats
and top-hats, who muttered numbers to their chief, replying in kind!
"Everything all right, Bülow upstairs," whispered Udo in Russian.
He went ahead of the War Lord through lines of his men, posted at
intervals of three paces in the courtyard and at the entrance. The
vestibule was splendid with electric light for the first time in the
history of the old palace.
As the suspicious War Lord observed, Marshal Augustus had
been busy indeed. Heavy portières everywhere, over doors,
windows, and oeils-de-boeuf; to passers-by the Leopold Palace was
as dead and forlorn as during the past several years.
Up the newly carpeted grand stairway the War Lord rushed. The
smiling Bülow stood at the library door. Wilhelm merely extended his
hand; he was too full of his subject to reply to Bülow's respectful
greetings and inquiries after his health.
"Wedell will stay," he said, "for our talk will concern his
department no less than yours."
Bülow had arranged arm-chairs about the blazing fireplace, but
the War Lord was in no mood to sit down.
"Here's a devil of a mess," he said, "just discovered it in time.
That confounded Este is too much of a blackleg to be trusted."
"Too deeply steeped in clericalism," suggested Bülow.
"That and Jesuitism, Romanism, Papism and every other
sableism. Found him out in our first confab, and to-day's meeting
with Haeseler confirmed it. He will never consent to a Roman Empire
of German nationality. Wants all Italy for himself and Rome for his
Church. Intolerable!" cried the War Lord, as he strode up and down.
"Twenty marks if Otto were in his place."
The War Lord's joke drew tears of appreciative hilarity from the
obsequious eyes of the two courtier-politicians.
"Your Majesty's remark reminds me of a patriotic speech made
by the Prince of Bueckeberg at the beginning of the railway age: 'We
must have a railway in Lippe, even if it costs five thousand thalers,'
said His Transparency, amid thunderous applause."
This from the Chancellor, who, like Talleyrand, delights in
quotations and has a knack of introducing other people's witty, or
stupid, sayings when desiring to remain uncommittal on his own
part. In this instance he would rather exhaust Bartlett and his
German confrère Hertslet than discuss that Prince of mauvais sujets,
Otto of Austria.
At the time of the discussion (it was in 1903—three years before
the royal degenerate died) the father of the present heir to the Dual
Monarchy was on the apex of his ill-fame.
He beat his wife and his creditors, he disgraced his rank, his
manhood, and, though thirty-eight years of age, was frightened from
committing the worst excesses at home only by the threat of
corporal punishment at the hands of his uncle, the Emperor. For
Francis Joseph, most Olympian of monarchs, according to the
upholders of Spanish etiquette at the Hofburg, is very apt indeed to
give a good imitation of the petty household tyrant when roused. For
this reason, probably, his late consort, the Empress Elisabeth, used
to liken him to a cobbler.
Francis Joseph's most recent fistic exploit at Otto's expense was
still, at that time, the talk of the European Courts. It appears that
His Imperial Highness, at dinner with boon companions, had
emptied a dish of spinach over the head of uncle's marble statue,
and prolonged the fun by firing over-ripe tomatoes, pimentos,
spaghetti and other dainties at the already abundantly decorated
effigy.
When finally he ordered Count Salm, his Court marshal, to send
for a "mandel"—fifteen pieces—of ancient eggs to vary the
bombardment, Salm refusing, of course, he assaulted the Excellency,
sword in hand, and a general medley ensued, in which considerable
blue blood was spilt. No lives lost, yet the innocent bit of passe-
temps brought the Emperor's fist and cane into play again.
But our mutton is getting cold.
"Unfortunately," said von Bülow, "Franz Ferdinand is a
particularly healthy specimen of humanity."
"And even should he die like a Balkan royalty——" suggested
von Wedell.
"I thought you had been unable definitely to trace Russia's fine
Italian hand in the Belgrade murders?" demanded the War Lord
sharply.
"For which many thanks," murmured Bülow.
"With Your Majesty's permission, I referred to the older
generation of Balkan assassins," said Udo.
"Well, let it pass, Monsieur le Duc d'Otrante." The War Lord
frequently addressed his Minister of Police by Fouché's title, while
commenting upon Napoleon's bad taste in raising that functionary to
so high an estate. "After all," he used to say, "he was nothing but a
spy, and as treacherous as the Corsican himself."
This, it will be observed, came with peculiar ill grace from
Wilhelm, who, like the first Emperor of the French, demeaned
himself to direct personally his Secret Service, and to associate with
the cashiered army officers, agents provocateurs, etc., of this branch
of government.
"What if Otto, as Emperor of the Slavs, sets up a claim for all
Poland, Your Majesty's with the rest?" Bülow had asked.
"I would rather see my sixty millions of people dead on the
battle-field than give up an inch of ground gained by Frederick the
Great and the rest of my ancestors!" cried the War Lord, as if he
were haranguing a mob. "Besides, why should Otto, more than
Franz, covet my patrimony?"
"Because of his relationship with the Saxon Court through her
Imperial Highness Josepha."
"Pipe-dreams——" snarled the War Lord contemptuously. Then,
seeing Bülow redden, he added: "On Otto's part, I mean."
"I beg Majesty's pardon—not entirely," quoth Wedell. "Dresden
is still making sheep's eyes at Warsaw, and when Your Majesty
spoke about a grand Imperial palace to be built in Posen, King
George remarked: 'Suits me to the ground. I hope he'll make it after
the kind American multimillionaires boast of.' This on the authority of
a Saxon noble whose family established itself in the kingdom long
before Albert the Bold."
"Children and disgruntled aristocrats tell the truth," commented
the War Lord; "sometimes, at least," he added after a while. Then
suddenly facing Bülow, he continued in an angry tone: "That black
baggage, wherever one turns. Unless there be a Lutheran Pope,
Monsieur l'Abée de Rome will try and catholicise Prussia, even as
Benedict XIV. tried to do through Maria Theresa."
"It was another Benedict, was it not, who offered public prayers
that Heaven be graciously pleased to foment quarrels between the
heretic Powers?" suggested Bülow, pulling a volume on historic dates
from the shelf as if to verify his authority.
"What of it?" demanded the War Lord impatiently.
"One of the heretic Powers prayed against was England, Your
Majesty."
"And you want to insinuate that I must pocket all the insults
Edward may find it expedient to heap upon me?"
"Nothing is farther from my mind, of course. I merely meant to
point to the historic fact that the Catholics always pool their
interests, always fight back to back, while the disunity and open
rivalries among non-Catholic Powers——"
"I know the litany," interrupted the War Lord rudely; "but let's
return to Este. What do you intend to do with that chap?"
"Make him work for us tooth and nail," said Bülow, "and as for
any extra dances with the Saxon or His Holiness—well, Udo will keep
an eye on him. From this hour on he must be kept under constant
observation, whether at home or abroad, in his family circle or the
army mess, at manoeuvre or the chase, at the Hradschin or at
Konopischt."
The War Lord, visibly impressed, laid his massive right hand on
Count von Wedell's shoulder.
"Where is Este now?" looking at the clock.
"Suite eighteen, Hôtel de Rome."
"With whom?"
"Cardinal Schlauch."
"Bishop Tank of Gross-Wardein? And who is watching them?"
"Number 103, garlic and bartwichse to the backbone."
"Under the bed?"
"No, Your Majesty; in it. I varied the programme for His
Highness's sake. Like an old maid who persists in the hope of
catching a man sometime, he never misses looking under the bed."
"I will examine '103' in Königgrätzerstrasse at 9 A.M. to-
morrow," commanded the War Lord; "and, Udo, if you love me, have
him well aired. An hour or two of goose-step would do the garlic-
eater the world of good."
The number, of course, referred to a Secret Service man. They
have no names so far as the Government knows, or wants to know,
and, despite their usefulness, are looked upon as mauvais sujets. To
make up for this their pay is rather better than that of the average
German official. They get a little less than the equivalent of £4 a
week and 10s. a day for expenses. These sums constitute the
retaining fee; their main income depends on the jobs they are able
to pull off. They get paid for all business transacted, in accordance
with its importance. When on a foreign mission, they may send in
bills up to £2 per day for personal expenses, but in all ordinary
circumstances the 10s. per diem must suffice.
The War Lord turned once more to Bülow. "You said: 'Make him
work for us.' I would willingly sentence him for life to the treadmill.
What's your idea of work for Franz?"
"I refer to Your Majesty's complaint that the Austrian army is in
a state of unreadiness, of unpreparedness for war. Now, while I have
no opinion whatever as to Herr von Este's capacity as a general, I do
know that organisation and discipline are ruling passions with him."
"He would rather beat a recruit than go to Mass," interpolated
Udo.
"The right spirit," approved the War Lord, "and it shall serve my
purposes. I taught the Bavarians to out-Prussian the Prussian; the
Austrians shall follow suit, or Franz will know the reason why.
"A drill-ground bully by nature and inclination, he will know how
to make an end to Blue Danube saloperie; and if strap and rod won't
do, he will use scorpions, like that ancient King of Judea—or did he
hail from Mecklenburg, Bülow?" Autocratically ruled Mecklenburg is
Bülow's own particular fatherland.
"I am sure the riding-whip always sufficed in our domains,"
smiled the Chancellor; "but Your Majesty is right: rose water
wouldn't make much impression on Slovaks and Croatians."
"Well then," said the War Lord, "here is the programme: No
more about Lutheran popeship, Holy Roman Empire of German
nationality, future of the Holy See and so forth. Nauseate him, on
the other hand, with Austrian military schweinerei (piggishness),
which ought to disappear from the face of the earth in the shortest
possible order to make room for the glories of Prussian drill,
discipline and efficiency.
"With von der Goltz knocking the Turk into shape and Franz Este
driving the devil of irresolution and maniana out of the Dual
Monarchy, we will be in a position to defy the world—and to fight it,
too."
CHAPTER XVIII
A SECRET SERVICE EPISODE
No. 103 Arrives—The Spy's Report—The Archduke and
the Cardinal—The Ruling of the Church
Count von Wedell's office on Königgratzerstrasse.
Royal coupé driving up and down the opposite side of the
street. No groom—dismounted chasseur with feather hat stands
guard at the big oaken door entrance.
Long-legged brown horses, evident habitat: England. As a rule,
the War Lord drives with blacks or greys; likewise the wheel-spokes
of the vehicles used by him are gilded. Those of the carriage we
observe are chocolate colour, with just a thin silver line. Wilhelm
sometimes travels incog. in his own capital. By the way, why always
chocolate-coloured carriages when royalty does not wish to radiate
official lustre? In the reminiscences of the third Napoleon "the little
brown coupé" figured largely when the Emperor of the French went
poaching on strange preserves, and other monarchs had the same
preference.
Inside the Imperial office building: sentinels with fixed bayonets
at each corridor entrance; over the coco-nut mat, covering the right-
hand passage, a thick red Turkey runner; Secret Service men in top-
hats and Prince Albert coats every ten paces. At the extreme end a
big steel double door.
"No. 103," whispered the speaking-tube into Count Wedell's ear.
"Three minutes late," snarled that official; "but I will pay him
back."
"No. 103," in faultless evening dress (though it is nine in the
morning), is conducted through the right-hand passage. He is at
home here, but no one recognises him. Secret Service rule: No
comradeship with other agents of the Government. You are a
number, no more.
As he is ushered through the lines of sentinels, the royal
chasseur, drawn broadsword in his right, opens the door with his left
hand. Count Wedell meets him on the threshold.
"Kept Majesty waiting," grumbled the Privy Councillor sotto
voce.
"Cab broke down, Excellency," No. 103 excused himself.
"Don't let it happen again. You will stand under the chandelier
facing the inner room. Attention!" commanded the chief.
And at attention, every nerve vibrating with excitement and
expectancy, No. 103 stood like a statue in the Avenue of Victory, but
with rather more grace, for no man living could imitate the War
Lord's marble dolls without provoking murder. Wedell had gone into
the inner room, the entrance of which was framed by heavy damask
portières with gold lace set a jour.
"Portholes," thought No. 103, sizing up the decorations; and,
keyhole artist that he is, he soon met a pair of eyes gazing at him
through the apertures.
"Majesty taking a peep," he reflected. "I wonder what he thinks
of the man who went back on his native Nero for filthy lucre."
Whether he thought well of him or not, the War Lord kept No.
103 standing full twenty-five minutes. If in his youth he had not had
a particularly cruel drill-ground sergeant, he could not have endured
the pain and fatigue.
Suddenly the portières parted: the War Lord, seated at a
"diplomat's" writing-desk; Count Wedell, toying with a self-cocking
six-shooter, stood at his left.
"If that thing goes off and accidentally hits me," thought No.
103, "there is a trap-door under this rug, and a winding staircase
leading to a sewer, I suppose, as in the Doge's Palace." Comforting
thought, but who cares for a spy?
"Approach," ordered the War Lord in a high-pitched voice. When
No. 103 was within three paces of the Majesty, Wedell held up his
hand.
"His Majesty wants to know all about last night," said the Privy
Councillor.
"Did Herr von Este really look under the bed?" queried the War
Lord, tempering the essential by the ridiculous.
"He did indeed," replied No. 103; "and I nearly betrayed my
presence between the sheets watching him."
"What happened?"
"Nothing, Your Majesty; just a thought passing through my
mind."
"Out with it," cried the War Lord, when No. 103 stopped short.
The agent provocateur looked appealingly at Count Wedell. "I
humbly beg to be excused."
"I command you!"
"Well then, Your Majesty, it occurred to me that I ought to have
planted a mark's worth of asafoetida under that bed."
Did the stern Majesty laugh? He guffawed and roared enough to
split his sides—the lines between the sublime and the low are not
tightly drawn in Berlin.
"This fellow has wit," said the War Lord to Udo. "When you
come to think of it, asafoetida is mighty appropriate ammunition to
use against the Jesuit disciple." Then, with a look to No. 103:
"Proceed."
"Details and all," commanded von Wedell.
"The minutest," emphasised the War Lord.
"May it please Your Majesty, I was in that bed three hours
before the parties came into the room. The Cardinal had hired Suite
18 expressly for the meeting, his lodgings being elsewhere in the
hotel. He was first to arrive, and swore lustily because there was no
crucifix or prie-Dieu, as ordered.
"Cursed like a trooper, eh?" cried the War Lord. "Make a note of
that, Udo. When I am Lutheran pope I will visit the grand bane upon
any cardinal guilty of saying naughty words."
"Your Majesty will have the All Highest hands full," remarked
von Wedell. "What about Prince Max?"
"I shall take devilish good care that the Saxon idiot never
achieves the red hat. Making eyes at Warsaw and a friend at the
Curia! What next?" To No. 103: "Proceed."
"An impromptu altar was quickly set up, and when Herr von
Este was announced——"
"What name?" interrupted the War Lord.
"Ritter von Wognin, Your Majesty."
Count von Wedell promptly explained: "One of the minor Chotek
titles."
"I always said he was his wife's husband," affirmed the War
Lord, with an oath. Then, to No. 103: "Well?"
"The Cardinal had taken his stand at the side of the crucifix, and
when the Ritter walked in elevated his hand pronouncing the
benediction, whereupon the Austrian heir dropped on his knees. The
Cardinal seemed in no hurry to see him rise, but finally held out his
hand, saying: 'In the name of the Holy Church I welcome thee, my
son.'
"And Este kissed his hand, didn't he?" cried the War Lord.
"He certainly bent over the Cardinal's hand, and I heard a
smack," replied No. 103.
"That settles it," said the War Lord; "the foot-kiss for me when I
am pope of the Lutheran Church."
"May it please Your Majesty," continued No. 103, "the two
gentlemen then settled down in easy chairs and engaged in a long,
whispered conversation in which alleged sayings of Your Majesty
were freely quoted by Herr von Este."
"Enough," interrupted the War Lord; and at a sign from Wedell
No. 103 backed towards the door, which opened from outside. "You
will await a possible further summons in here," said Count Wedell's
secretary, ushering No. 103 into a waiting-room.
"How much has that fellow got on credit?" demanded the War
Lord.
Wedell pulled out a card index drawer. "Upwards of thirteen
thousand marks."
"He knows that he'll lose it to the last pfennig if he squeals?"
"The case of our man who exchanged Barlinnie Jail for the
service of Sir Edward Grey brought that home with peculiar force to
everybody in the Wilhelmstrasse and Königgrätzerstrasse," replied
Udo.
It should be interpolated here that German spies receive only
two-thirds of the bonuses accruing to them. One-third of all "extras"
remain in the hands of the Government at interest, to be refunded
when his spyship is honourably discharged. If he is caught and does
not betray his trust, then these savings par order de mufti are paid
over to his family or other heirs; if he betrays his Government, then
the Government gets even with him by confiscating the spy's
accumulated savings, which arrangement gives the Secret Service
office a powerful hold on its employees.
"Very well, recall the millionaire-on-good-behaviour," quoth the
Majesty.
No. 103 proved the possession of a marvellously retentive
memory. Quoting His Highness's confidences to the Cardinal, he
repeated almost word for word the War Lord's conversation with
Franz, both at the Schloss and at the General Staff office.
"Any memoranda used?" demanded Wilhelm abruptly.
"None, Your Majesty."
"Did the Cardinal take notes?"
"No, Your Majesty. When Herr von Este urged him to do so, he
said it was unnecessary, since he never forgot matters of
importance; in fact, could recite a text verbatim after tens of years."
"Curse their stenographic memories," said the War Lord. "I hope
you were careful to note what Schlauch said," he added in a stern,
almost threatening voice.
"I memorised his talk to the dotlets on the i's," replied the
Secret Service man, bowing low. "Quite an easy matter, for His
Eminence used words sparingly—
"To conceal his thoughts, of course." This from the War Lord.
Then No. 103 read the "notes" from his mental memorandum
pad. The Cardinal, it appears, laid down three rules "for the
guidance of his 'dear son' and all other Catholic princes:
"I. Agreements with heretic sovereigns do not count unless they
serve the interests of the Church.
"II. If the proposed Slav Empire would bring about the
submission of the orthodox heretics to the Church of Rome, no
amount of blood and treasure spent in so laudable a cause may be
called extravagant, the sacrifice being for God Almighty.
"III. But if there should be a by-product" (our own term, the
Cardinal's being too circumstantial) "a by-product in the shape of a
heretic pope—pardon the blasphemous word—then Franz's ambition
would be a stench in the nostrils of the Almighty, excommunication
would be his fate in this world, the deepest abyss of hell in the
other."
Count von Wedell, misinterpreting his master, thought "it was to
laugh," but a look upon the War Lord's face caused him to change
his attitude.
"Pay No. 103 five thousand marks, half in cash, half in reserve,"
said Wilhelm, disregarding the one-third clause for a purpose, no
doubt. "I have no further commands for him at present."
Count Wedell stepped forward from the inner room, and the
portières automatically closed before No. 103 had finished his
obeisance.
CHAPTER XIX
BERTHA AND FRANZ
On Forbidden Ground—A Talk on Brain-Curves—Bertha
is Afraid—Shades of Krupp—"Charity Covers ——"—A
Dramatic Exit
"Oh, Franz, tell me what it all means!"
If Bertha and the chief engineer had been real lovers, and had
selected the moon for a place of rendezvous, they could not have
been safer from intrusion than in the late Frederick Krupp's library
with the door unlocked, for the "room sacred to His Majesty" was a
sort of Bluebeard chamber into which no eye but the War Lord's and
Bertha's must look.
Bertha had shown her mother a parcel of documents which
Uncle Majesty had ordered her to read carefully. "I will go to the
library, where I will be undisturbed," she said in her decisive tone,
while the butler was serving early strawberries sent from Italy.
Strawberries in January in a little Rhenish town! It reminds us that
when Charles V., warrior and gourmet-gourmand, sucked an orange
in winter-time, his Court was prostrate with astonishment and
admiration.
And Alexis Orloff won Catherine the Great from his brother
Gregory—temporarily, at least—by sending to the Semiramis of the
North a plate of strawberries for the New Year. Yet nowadays any
well-to-do person can indulge all the year round in the luxuries that
made Charles and Catherine the envied of their Imperial class.
Bertha was in the War Lord's chair, for she felt very Olympian
since she had returned from the Berlin Court, while Franz sat on the
tabouret affected by the Krupp heiress during the interviews with
her guardian.
"What did Zara really mean?" repeated Bertha.
"Are you prepared to hear the truth, the whole truth, and
nothing but the truth?" queried Franz.
Bertha Krupp moved uneasily in her high seat. Her mental
stature had advanced rapidly under the War Lord's teachings,
disguised as coaxings, and while the sound principles implanted in
her bosom by a good mother were at bottom unimpaired, she was
beginning to learn the subtle art of putting her conscience to sleep
when occasion demanded—a touch of Machiavellism!
Just now she would have loved to shut up Franz, as she was
wont to silence her mother by a word or look, though less rudely,
perhaps, but her fondness for the man—though she was not at all in
love with Franz—forced her to be frank with him.
"Speak as a friend to a friend," she said warmly.
"Well then——" began Franz.
Bertha covered his mouth with her hand. "A moment, please.
May I tell Uncle Majesty?"
"What I have to say is no secret of mine and certainly it is not
news to the War Lord. By all means tell him if you dare."
"If I dare?" echoed Bertha.
"My own words."
Franz spoke very earnestly, almost solemnly: "Will you hear me
to the end, whether you like the tune or not?"
"If it relates to Zara's prophecies, I will," said Bertha. "But," she
added falteringly, "you know I mustn't listen to criticism of my
guardian."
Franz shrugged. "I quite understand. Forbidden ground even for
your Mother."
Bertha felt the sting of reproval keenly, and did not like it.
Indeed, at the moment she would have given up gladly a
considerable portion of her wealth to be restored to Franz's
unconditional and unrestricted good graces. So, humbling herself,
she temporarily abandoned her high estate and again became the
unsophisticated girl whom Franz used to call sister. "Do go on," she
urged; "it was all so romantic, so strange, so mysterious, and you
know I love to feel creepy."
Franz had risen and approached the great central window. "May
I draw the curtains?" he asked, looking over his shoulder.
"They must not see you. I will."
Bertha tugged the golden cords. "Working overtime again?" she
queried, as she observed the blazing smoke-stacks.
"More's the pity, for every pound of steam going up those
chimneys means so many lives lost, and for all those lives, Bertha,
you will have to account to God."
"Old wives' tales," commented the Krupp heiress, as if the War
Lord in person played souffleur. "On the contrary, as you well know,
war preparedness means peace, means preservation; and with us in
particular it means happiness and prosperity to the ten thousands of
families in this favoured valley. It spells education, arts, music, care
of children and of the sick and disabled. It means cheerfulness, such
as ample wage and a future secured confer; it means care-free old
age." As she recounted these benefits her enterprises were actually
dispensing Bertha looked at the chief engineer with a slightly
supercilious air.
"Well rehearsed," remarked Franz dryly.
"Oh, if you want to be rude——"
"I do," said Franz, taking hold of her wrist; "I am sick of all this
lying palaver about good coming out of evil, and I want you to be
sick of it too, Bertha."
The Krupp heiress leaned back in her chair, crossing her arms.
"At the American Embassy I heard rather a quaint saying day before
yesterday: 'Go as far as you like.'
"A most apt saying," admitted Franz. "Thank you for the licence.
As I was going to point out, you did attach too little significance to
Zara's words, thought them mere piffle of the kind for sale in
necromancers' tents. There is enough of that, God knows, but do
not lose sight of the fact that at all times and in all walks of life there
have existed persons having the gift of prophecy. Who knows but
Zara has?"
Bertha was now rigid with attention. She had moved knee from
knee; her feet were set firmly on the carpet, while the upper part of
her body straightened out. "I don't follow," she said almost
pleadingly.
"Let me explain," continued Franz. "You and I and the vast
majority of people can look into the past—a certain curvature of our
brain facilitating the privilege. Another similar or dissimilar set of
brain-cells, or a single curvature, might lift for us the veil that now
obscures the future."
"The future?" gasped Bertha.
"Indeed, the future; and, practically considered, there is nothing
so very extraordinary about it, for what will happen to-morrow, or
the day after to-morrow, is in the making now. If, for instance, the
Krupp works were going into bankruptcy a year hence, the
unfavourable conditions that constitute the menace to our prosperity
would be at their destructive work now. Do you follow?" added
Franz.
"I think I do," said Bertha.
"Hence I say the gift of prophecy presupposes a correct
interpretation of the past and present as well as the peculiar gift of
extraordinary brain development—a rare gift, so sparsely distributed
that in olden times prophets were credited with interpreting the will
of the Almighty."
"Franz," cried Bertha, her face pallid and drawn, her hands
twitching. "Oh, my God!" she screamed, as if nerve-shattered by an
awful thought suddenly burst upon her; "you don't believe—no, you
can't——! Tell me that you do not think it was God's voice speaking
through Zara?" And, as if to shut out some horrible vision, the Girl-
Queen of Guns covered her face with both hands.
"It is not for me to pronounce on things I don't know," replied
Franz. "Judged by what you have told me, Zara suited her prophecy
for the most part to facts and to existing tendencies, conditions and
ambitions on the part of political parties and high personages."
"She called me the coming arch-murderess of the age, insisted
that the warrior-queens of past times, even the most heartless and
most cruel, had been but amateurs compared with me in taking
human lives—— Oh, Franz, tell me it is not true! She was romancing,
was she not? She lied to frighten me and to get a big trinkgeld."
"I wish it were so," said Franz earnestly; "but, unfortunately,
she had a clear insight into the future as it may develop, unless you
call a halt to incessant, ever-increasing, ever-new war preparations."
Many years ago I read a manuscript play by a Dutch author, in
the opening scenes of which a Jew tried to sell another Jew a bill of
goods. Shylock number two wanted the stuff badly, but calculated
that by a show of indifference he might obtain them for a halfpenny
less. On his part, Isaac was as eager to sell as the other was to buy,
but the threatened impairment of his fortune called for strategy. So
he feigned that he did not care a rap whether the goods changed
hands or not, and the two shysters remained together a whole long
act engaging in a variety of business that had nought to do with the
original proposition, each, however, watching for opportunity to re-
introduce it, now as a threat, again as a bait, and the third and
seventh and tenth time in jest. So Bertha, having once disposed of
the war preparation bogey, according to Uncle Majesty's suggestion,
now returned to it in slightly different form. She was determined to
discount Zara's prophecies at any cost.
Getting ready to fight was tantamount to backing down;
spending billions for guns and ammunition and chemicals and
fortifications and espionage and war scares and whatnots was mere
pretext for keeping the pot boiling in the workman's cottage, and the
golden eagles rolling in the financier's cash drawer, and so on ad
infinitum. When Bertha had finished she thought Zara's prophecies
very poor stuff.
Franz came in for the full quota of that sort of argument out of
a bad conscience so warped by hypocrisy. Our Lady of the Guns no
doubt believed every word she said, or rather repeated—dear
woman's way! She always firmly trusts in what suits her, logic, proof
to the contrary, stubborn facts notwithstanding. Instinct or intuition,
she calls it.
"That is no way to dispose of so grave a subject," said Franz.
"But what can I do?"
"Prevent more wholesale family disintegration, forestall future
mass-murder, future dunging of the earth with blood and human
bones."
Franz put both hands on the girl's shoulders. "Bertha," he said
impressively, "make up your mind not to sign any more death-
warrants, stop making merchandise intended to rob millions of life
and limb and healthy minds, while those coming after them are
destined physical or moral cripples that one man's ambition may
thrive."
"Shut down the works, you mean?" cried Bertha; and,
womanlike, indulged once more the soothing music of self-
deception: "It would ruin the Ruhr Valley, throw a hundred thousand
and more out of work; and what could they do, being skilled only in
the industries created by my father and grandfather?
"Papa, Uncle Alfred, the first Krupp—God bless their souls!—
were they founders of murder-factories, as you suggest? No, a
thousand times no. Their skill, their genius, their enterprise has been
the admiration of the world. Everybody admits that they were men
animated by the highest motives and principles. They made
Germany."
"I don't deny it; I underline every word you have said, Bertha.
The foundations for Germany's greatness were laid within a stone's
throw of this window; much of her supremacy in politics and
economics was conceived between these four walls. But now that
the goal is achieved, that the Fatherland enjoys unprecedented
wealth and prosperity—let well enough alone."
"You talk as if I were the War Lord!" cried Bertha.
"You are his right hand: the War Lady."
"He is my guardian, my master."
"Only for a while. You don't have to submit to his dictation when
of age."
Carried away by emotion, Franz had spoken harshly at times,
but now his tone became coaxing.
"When you come into your own, promise me, Bertha, to accept
no more orders for armament and arms of any kind. Dedicate the
greatest steel plant of the world to enterprises connected with
progress, with the advancement of the human race! Build railways,
Eiffel towers for observation, machinery of all sorts, ploughs and
other agricultural implements, but for God's sake taboo once and for
all preparations for murder and destruction!"
Bertha covered her ears. "Don't use such words; they are
uncalled for, inappropriate." Then, with a woman's ill-logic, she
repeated the last. "'Destruction'—you don't take into consideration
what your 'destructive' factors have done for my people, what they
are doing for humanity right along. Auntie Majesty thinks our
charities and social work superior to Rockefeller's, and God forbid
that I ever stop or curtail them."
"Yes! Think of your charities," said Franz; "take the Hackenberg
case. What is he—a soldier blasted and crippled in mind and body by
the war of 1870. Essen's industry made a wreck of Heinrich, and he
costs you one mark a day to keep for the rest of his life; three
hundred and sixty-five marks per year, paid so many decades, what
percentage of your father's profits in the war of 1870-71 does the
sum total represent?"
"A fraction of a thousandth per cent., perhaps. Another fraction
pays for the son Johann's keep, another for that of the two younger
boys, another for Gretchen, etc., etc."
"But if there had been no war, Heinrich would not have been
disabled, and consequently would not have burdened charity with
human wreckage! Do you see my point?"
"Go on," said Bertha.
"Because you are used to it, maybe the Hackenberg case does
not particularly impress you. You were not born when Heinrich
sallied forth in the name of patriotism. But reflect: there are
thousands of charitable institutions like yours, not so richly endowed,
not so splendid to look upon, but charnel-houses for Essen war
victims just the same. And all filled to overflowing—even as the
Krupp treasury is. Yet that Franco-German war, that made the
Krupps and necessitated the asylums and hospitals, was Lilliputian
compared with the Goliath war now in the making—partly thanks to
you, Bertha."
"But I have told you time and again there will be no war, that I
have the highest authority for saying so!" cried Bertha angrily.
"Authority," mocked Franz. "The French of 1870 had the no-war
'authority' of Napoleon III., the Germans that of William I., before
the edict went forth to kill, to maim, to destroy, to strew the earth
with corpses and fill the air with lamentations! So it will be this
month, this year, next year—for history ever repeats itself—until the
hour for aggression, which will be miscalled a defence of our holiest
principles and interests, has struck.
"The air pressure has increased," continued Franz, parting the
window curtains; "see the lowering clouds! And watch the storm
coming up, lashing them in all directions. West and east they are
spreading, and, look, north too! They are falling on Northern France,
on the Lowlands and Russia like a black pall."
"You prophesy a universal war?" shrieked Bertha.
"The answer is in your ledger. For thirty and more years your
firm has been arming the universe. Since your father's death you
have distributed armaments on a vaster scale than ever, and now, I
understand, the pace that killeth is to be still more increased.
"When you have furnished Germany with all the guns, the
ammunition, the chemicals, the flying machines, the cruisers, the
submarines, the hand grenades—what then? Presto! a pretext of the
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Exercising Essential Statistics Fourth Edition 4th Edition Evan Berman

  • 1. Exercising Essential Statistics Fourth Edition 4th Edition Evan Berman download https://ebookbell.com/product/exercising-essential-statistics- fourth-edition-4th-edition-evan-berman-22675668 Explore and download more ebooks at ebookbell.com
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  • 7. Exercising Essential Statistics Fourth Edition Evan Berman Victoria University of Wellington XiaoHu Wang City University of Hong Kong
  • 8. FOR INFORMATION: CQ Press An Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. 2455 Teller Road Thousand Oaks, California 91320 E-mail: order@sagepub.com SAGE Publications Ltd. 1 Oliver’s Yard 55 City Road London, EC1Y 1SP United Kingdom SAGE Publications India Pvt. Ltd. B 1/I 1 Mohan Cooperative Industrial Area Mathura Road, New Delhi 110 044 India SAGE Publications Asia-Pacific Pte. Ltd. 3 Church Street #10-04 Samsung Hub
  • 9. Singapore 049483 Copyright © 2018 by CQ Press, an Imprint of SAGE Publications, Inc. CQ Press is a registered trademark of Congressional Quarterly Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 978-1-5063-4895-7 All trademarks depicted within this book, including trademarks appearing as part of a screenshot, figure, or other image are included solely for the purpose of illustration and are the property of their respective holders. The use of the trademarks in no way indicates any relationship with, or endorsement by, the holders of said trademarks. SPSS is a registered trademark of International Business Machines Corporation. Excel is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation. All Excel screenshots in this book are used with permission from Microsoft Corporation. This book is printed on acid-free paper. Acquisitions Editor: Carrie Brandon Editorial Assistant: Duncan Marchbank eLearning Editor: John Scappini Production Editor: Bennie Clark Allen Copy Editor: Sarah J. Duffy Typesetter: C&M Digitals (P) Ltd. Proofreader: Jen Grubba Cover Designer: Anupama Krishnan Marketing Manager: Jennifer Jones
  • 10. Contents Introduction Chapter 1 Why Statistics for Public Managers and Analysts? Q & A Critical Thinking Application Exercises Further Reading Chapter 2 Research Design Q & A Critical Thinking Application Exercises Further Reading Chapter 3 Conceptualization and Measurement Q & A Critical Thinking Application Exercises Further Reading Chapter 4 Measuring and Managing Performance: Present and Future Q & A Critical Thinking Application Exercises Further Reading Chapter 5 Data Collection Q & A Critical Thinking Application Exercises Further Reading Chapter 6 Central Tendency Q & A Critical Thinking Data-Based Exercises Further Reading Chapter 7 Measures of Dispersion Q & A Critical Thinking
  • 11. Data-Based Exercises Further Reading Chapter 8 Contingency Tables Q &A Critical Thinking Data-Based Exercises Further Reading Chapter 9 Getting Results Q & A Critical Thinking Data-Based Exercises Further Reading Chapter 10 Introducing Inference: Estimation from Samples Q & A Critical Thinking Data-Based Exercises Further Reading Chapter 11 Hypothesis Testing with Chi-Square Q & A Critical Thinking Data-Based Exercises Further Reading Chapter 12 The T-Test Q & A Critical Thinking Data-Based Exercises Further Reading Chapter 13 Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) Q & A Critical Thinking Data-Based Exercises Further Reading Chapter 14 Simple Regression Q & A Critical Thinking Data-Based Exercises Further Reading
  • 12. Chapter 15 Multiple Regression Q & A Critical Thinking Data-Based Exercises Further Reading Chapter 16 Logistic Regression and Time Series Regression Q & A Critical Thinking Data-Based Exercises Further Reading Chapter 17 Survey of Other Techniques Q & A Critical Thinking Data-Based Exercise Further Reading Chapter 18 Excel User’s Guide Loading the Data Analysis ToolPak Locating the Insert Function (fx) The Excel Sheet Screen and Descriptive Statistics Procedure Frequency Distributions Chi-Square Test One-Sample T-Test Two-Samples T-Test ANOVA Regression Creating Charts in Excel Chapter 19 SPSS User’s Guide SPSS Screens Creating a Variable Univariate Analysis: Means and Frequency Distributions Variable Labels and Values Defining Missing Values Selecting a Subset of Observations for Analysis Index Variables I: Cronbach Alpha Index Variables II: Construction Recoding Data Hypothesis Testing with Chi-Square
  • 13. T-Tests Conclusion Chapter 20 Dataset Documentation Public Perceptions General Description Methods Detailed Summary Note on Variables Survey Instrument: Orange County Citizen Survey Employee Attitudes General Description Methods Detailed Summary Note on Variables Survey Instrument: Seminole County Government Employee Survey Community Indicators General Description Summary of Variables Watershed General Description Background Summary of Individual Variables: Condition Indicators Summary of Individual Variables: Vulnerability Indicators Productivity General Description Background Summary of Variables Crime General Description Background Summary of Variables Time General Description Summary of Variables Florida County Conservation Spending Database General Description Background
  • 15. Introduction This workbook is an integral part of the Essential Statistics for Public Managers and Policy Analysts, Fourth Edition, package. The textbook introduces theory and concepts and offers many examples that show relevance and application, and this workbook strengthens understanding by illustrating applications and encouraging analysts to think through statistical concepts in new and engaging ways. In short, practice makes perfect, and the applications found here are key to mastering statistics. Chapters 1 through 17 correspond to those in the textbook. The “Chapter Objectives” at the beginning of each textbook chapter are a good guide to what you will be practicing in each workbook chapter. To help students understand new concepts, four sections are featured that target different aspects of learning. Specifically, each of these chapters is divided into the following sections: “Q & A” facilitates student learning of the statistical concepts through questions and answers. It is an ideal study guide for tests. “Critical Thinking” consists of short exercises to stimulate further conceptual insights into statistics and applications. “Application Exercises” in Chapters 1–5 and “Data-Based Exercises” in Chapters 6–17 help students develop hands-on skills using practical applications. The exercises in Chapters 6–17 draw on datasets provided on the companion website, http://study.sagepub.com/bermaness4e. “Further Reading” lists work toward self-study in areas of interest to readers, including articles that students may wish to access. This workbook also includes chapters that extend the material covered in the textbook. Chapter 18 is a user’s guide to essential statistics in Excel®. Chapter 19 describes how to use SPSS, a statistical analysis program. It provides a step-by-step approach for ease of learning. Chapter 20 provides documentation for the datasets provided on the companion website. The datasets are provided in SPSS®*, SAS, SYSTAT, and Stata formats for easy use.
  • 16. * SPSS is a registered trademark of International Business Machines Corporation. The data sets are available at the SAGE Publishing/CQ Press website: http://study.sagepub.com/bermaness4e. If you have any difficulty accessing the datasets, just email Sage at orders@sagepub.com or call Sage at the number on this website. The datasets are the same as in the third edition, and a new one has been added, “Florida Counties.” The website includes bonus data, a complete report based on an actual citizen survey, as well as a presentation in Microsoft PowerPoint, which will help users stretch their imaginations as they think about how to present their data to others in the public realm. The report and survey instrument are available electronically in Microsoft Word for your convenience. A file discussing the use of spreadsheets in public management and analysis, including examples in Microsoft Excel, is also available. We hope this workbook will help users in their learning. Moreover, we hope they are able to readily apply some of these exercises to problems in their workplaces. Have a question or feedback? Just send us an e-mail, and we’ll be happy to respond. Let us know what works for you and how we can further improve this workbook. We look forward to hearing from you. Evan Berman evanmberman@gmail.com XiaoHu Wang xwang1989@gmail.com
  • 17. Chapter 1 Why Statistics for Public Managers and Analysts? Q & A 1. Identify five ways in which analysis and data often are used. The five ways are as follows: (1) to describe and analyze societal problems, (2) to describe policies and programs, (3) to monitor progress and prevent fraud, (4) to improve program operations, and (5) to evaluate policy and program outcomes. 2. How does quantitative analysis assist in decision making? Quantitative analysis provides a factual underpinning of situations and responses by quantifying the extent of problems and situations and the actual or likely impact of proposed strategies. At the very least, a focus on facts and objective analysis can reduce judgment errors stemming from overly impressionistic or subjective perceptions that are factually incorrect. 3. Identify six competencies for analysis. The six competencies are (1) being familiar with data sources in your line of work, (2) being able to collect your own data, (3) analyzing data, (4) communicating results from analysis, (5) bringing to quantitative analysis the theory and practice of management and policy analysis, and (6) having a strong sense of ethics relating to quantitative analysis. 4. What is scientific research? Scientific research is the careful, systematic process of inquiry that leads to the discovery or interpretation of facts, behaviors, and theories. Scientific research is distinguished from personal and other forms of research or inquiry by rather strict standards for accepting new facts and theories as knowledge and by a process that includes other scientists in making such determinations.
  • 18. 5. What is statistics? Statistics is the body of systematic knowledge and practice that provides standards and procedures for drawing conclusions from one’s data. Statistics includes specific tools for analyzing data, too. 6. Identify four stages of proficiency in quantitative analysis. The four stages of proficiency are know-nothing, journeyman, technocrat, and sophisticated expert. Each stage is associated with distinct development objectives. 7. What three areas of ethical concern are identified in connection with analysis? The three areas are as follows: (1) fully disclosing the purposes of analysis, (2) integrity in analysis and communication, and (3) concern for the impact of analysis and research on the welfare of human subjects. 8. What is scientific misconduct? Scientific misconduct is generally understood as the violation of the standard norms of scholarly conduct and ethical behavior in scientific research. Scientific misconduct, when considered by others to be significant or severe, can diminish one’s reputation and negatively affect one’s career, including the possibility of dismissal from one’s job and adverse legal action. 9. What is the specific problem of dual purposes? Analysts must balance potentially conflicting purposes of (1) furthering programs and policies and (2) establishing objective truths about how well a program is performing. 10. Which practices are associated with furthering the integrity of analysis and communication? Analysts should be honest, objective, accurate, and complete. Analysts should not hide facts, change data, falsify results, or consider only data that support a favored conclusion. Analysts should also fully report the sources of their data, data collection methodologies, and any possible gaps and shortfalls, and they should assess the impact of such shortcomings on their findings. Results should be presented in
  • 19. straightforward and nonmisleading ways. These norms provide essential guidance to analysts throughout the entire analytical process. 11. What concern should analysts have for the impact of research on the welfare of human subjects? Researchers and analysts should recognize and minimize the potential harm that their research and analysis could have on research subjects. Most human subjects research is now subject to oversight by institutional review boards to ensure that risks to subjects are reasonable and that possible harm is identified and minimized. Critical Thinking Note to students: These questions further understanding of selected key points made in the textbook. Questions in the next section, “Application Exercises,” are designed to encourage application of the key points in practice. 1. What is the difference between describing the extent of a social problem and describing the factors that give rise to it? Give an example. How can the latter be useful for developing programs and policies? ____________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________ 2. What is the role of statistics in connection with the six competencies mentioned in the text? What else might be needed to attain these competencies?
  • 20. _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ 3. Many programs produce routine, administrative data that are used to monitor progress and prevent fraud. How useful are such data for the five common uses of analysis and data mentioned in the text? What other data might be needed, such as might be obtained from citizen or client surveys? _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ 4. Identify a person or situation associated with each of the four stages of proficiency in quantitative analysis. _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________
  • 21. ____________________________________________________________________ 5. Explain how the following concerns of ethics can affect research and its utilization: (1) dual purposes, (2) full disclosure, (3) truthfulness, (4) alternative explanations, (5) communication, and (6) well-being of human subjects. Give examples of each. ____________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________ Application Exercises Note to students: This section is called Data-Based Exercises in later chapters (starting in Chapter 6) and will provide you with hands-on exercises that involve real datasets. 1. Identify five problems or challenges in your area of interest that would benefit from analysis or research. ____________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________ ____________________________________________________________________ 2. Identify at least two examples, in your area of interest, of each of the five common uses of analysis and data.
  • 22. _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ 3. What data exist in your area of interest? Are there any datasets with which managers and analysts are expected to be familiar? _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ 4. At what stage of proficiency do you see yourself? What is necessary to get beyond this stage? Develop some learning objectives for yourself. _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ 5. Explain how a customer or citizen survey might be useful in your area of interest. What topics might such a survey address? What challenges do you foresee? _____________________________________________________________________
  • 23. _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ 6. (a) Consider the following proposition: “Almost every department needs people with analytical skills.” Verify this proposition by interviewing managers in your area of interest. Which analytical skills do they say that they are looking for? (b) Research salaries at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Industry-Specific Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates, at www.bls.gov/oes/current/oessrci.htm, and compare wages for occupations that vary in analytical content, for example, management positions in budgeting, information technology, human resource management, and parks and recreation. _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ 7. Identify and consider some ethical situations that would challenge the integrity of your analysis and research, such as being asked to withhold relevant information. How might you deal with such situations? _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________
  • 24. _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ 8. Research the policies and practices that pertain to ethics in research in your agency or in an agency in your area of interest. If there are none, suggest two or three that would serve as a foundation for a more extensive set of policies. _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________________ Further Reading Various books offer additional information about the importance and uses of research and analysis in public service. A popular book is Eugene Bardach, Practical Guide for Policy Analysis: The Eightfold Path to More Effective Problem Solving, 5th ed. (Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 2015). A rather different approach is William Dunn, Public Policy Analysis: An Introduction (New York: Prentice Hall, 2016). Scholarship about the use of policy analysis and research traces back to the development of policy analysis as a field in the 1970s and efforts to get public agencies to use it in the 1970s and 1980s. A classic text about the use of analysis is Aaron Wildavski, Speaking Truth to Power: The Art and Craft of Policy Analysis (Piscataway, N.J.: Transaction, 1987). Since then, research has focused varyingly on the capacity of government organizations to develop or have policy research and analysis
  • 25. capabilities, and the utilization of such knowledge in their decision-making processes. Different events and contexts lead to different foci in research. In recent years, a focus has been the utilization of “evidenced-based” policy, resulting from increased capacity of performance measurement (see Chapter 4) and policy analysis. A representative article in this genre is Gary VanLandingham and Torey Silloway, “Bridging the Gap between Evidence and Policy Makers: A Case Study of the Pew-MacArthur Results First Initiative,” Public Administration Review 76 (2016): 542–546, and, somewhat older, Michael Howlett, “Policy Analytical Capacity and Evidence-Based Policy-Making: Lessons from Canada,” Canadian Public Administration 52 (2009): 153–175. While the use of evidence is ever more popular, concerns are growing as well; see Holger Strassheim and Pekka Kettunen, “When Does Evidence- Based Policy Turn into Policy-Based Evidence?” Evidence & Policy: A Journal of Research, Debate and Practice 10 (2014): 259–277. As these articles suggest, the problem of research utilization is found throughout the world. An older, award-winning article is Réjean Landry, Moktar Lamari, and Nabil Amara, “The Extent and Determinants of the Utilization of University Research in Government Agencies,” Public Administration Review 63 (March/April 2003): 192–205. This article received the Louis Brownlow Award from the American Society for Public Administration for the best article published in Public Administration Review in 2003. Earlier, the focus was on the development of performance measurement. See, for example, Evan Berman and XiaoHu Wang, “Performance Measurement in U.S. Counties: Capacity for Reform,” Public Administration Review 60 (September/October 2000): 409–420, which reflects the then-growing development of performance measures in local government. But as times change, so, too, does research. A classic book about the ethics of analysis is Darrell Huff, How to Lie with Statistics (New York: Norton, 1993, 1954). Other books on this topic are Joel Best, More Damned Lies and Statistics: How Numbers Confuse Public Issues (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2012, 2001) and Matthew Robinson and Renee G. Scherlen, Lies, Damned Lies, and Drug War Statistics: A Critical Analysis of Claims Made by the Office of National Drug Control Policy (Albany: State University of New York Press, 2014). As the
  • 26. progress of these titles shows, the genre is getting ever more tailored around specific topics. The National Institutes of Health website provides educational materials that discuss protections for human subjects, which is applicable to all types of research, including studies that public policy managers and analysts might conduct that involve humans in some way, for example, by administering surveys. Training materials related to approval processes for such research (such as by institutional review boards that are found at many research centers and universities) may also be found on the web (see, for example, http://osp.od.nih.gov/office-clinical-research-and- bioethics-policy).
  • 27. Chapter 2 Research Design Note to students: This chapter includes questions and exercises relating to the textbook introduction to Section II (Research Methods), indicated by SI (Section Introduction). Q & A 1. What is research methodology? (SI) Research methodology is the science of methods for investigating phenomena. Research methods are used in almost every social science discipline and can be applied to many different kinds of problems, including those found in public and nonprofit management and analysis. 2. What is basic research? What is applied research? (SI) Basic research is a research activity whose purpose is to develop new knowledge about phenomena such as problems, events, programs or policies, and their relationships. Applied research is a research activity whose purpose is to develop knowledge for addressing practical problems. 3. What are quantitative research methods? What are qualitative research methods? (SI) Quantitative research methods involve the collection of data that can be analyzed using statistical methods. The purpose of quantitative research is to quantify the magnitude of phenomena, to provide statistical evidence about factors affecting these phenomena, and to quantify the impacts of programs and policies. Qualitative research methods involve the collection and analysis of words, symbols, or artifacts that are largely nonstatistical in nature. Typically, the purpose of qualitative research is to identify and describe new phenomena and their relationships. 4. What are variables?
  • 28. Variables are empirically observable phenomena that vary. 5. What are attributes? Attributes are the specific characteristics of a variable, that is, the specific ways in which a variable can vary. All variables have attributes. For example, the variable “gender” has two attributes: male and female. 6. How is descriptive analysis different from the study of relationships? Descriptive analysis provides information about (the level of) individual variables, whereas the study of relationships provides information about the relationships among variables. 7. Define the terms independent variable and dependent variable. All causal relationships have independent and dependent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is affected (caused) by one or more independent variables. Independent variables are variables that cause an effect on other variables but are not themselves shaped by other variables. 8. What is a causal relationship, and how is it different from an association? Most studies describe relationships among variables. When relationships are causal, one variable is said to be the cause of another. When variables are only associated with each other, no effort is made to identify patterns of causation. 9. What is required for establishing a claim of causality? To establish causality, there must be both empirical correlation and a plausible theory that explains how these variables are causally related. 10. What is a hypothesis? A hypothesis is a relationship that has not yet been tested empirically. 11. What six steps are involved in program evaluation? The six steps are as follows: (1) defining program goals and activities, (2) identifying which key relationships will be studied, (3) determining what type of research design will be used, (4) defining and measuring study concepts, (5) collecting and analyzing program data, and (6)
  • 29. presenting study findings. 12. What are rival hypotheses? What are control variables? Rival hypotheses state threats to the credibility of study conclusions. Control variables are variables used in empirical research to evaluate rival hypotheses. 13. Explain the role of statistics in determining the impact of rival hypotheses (or control variables) on program outcomes. The impact of rival hypotheses can seldom be ascertained through research design alone. Statistics, then, are used to examine these impacts. (Statistics are also used for other purposes, explained in subsequent chapters of Essential Statistics for Public Managers and Policy Analysts.) 14. How are quasi-experimental designs different from classic, randomized experiments? In a classic experimental design, participants are randomly assigned to either a control or an experimental group. The only systematic difference between the groups is that study group participants receive an intervention (called a stimulus, such as a therapy, subsidy, or training). Any outcome differences between these two groups are then attributed to the systematic difference—the treatment. Such testing conditions are seldom possible in public management and policy. Quasi-experimental designs are imperfect research designs that may lack baselines, comparison groups, or randomization, which are present in classic, randomized experiments. 15. What are threats to external validity? Threats to external validity are those that jeopardize the generalizability of study conclusions to other situations. These threats often concern unique features of the study population or research design. 16. What are threats to internal validity? Threats to internal validity are those that jeopardize study conclusions about whether an intervention in fact caused a difference in the study population. These threats often question the logic of study conclusions.
  • 30. Critical Thinking 1. Give examples of basic and applied research questions that might be raised in the context of (1) a program to reduce adult illiteracy and (2) a program that fights international terrorism. (SI) __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 2. Why are both quantitative and qualitative methods indispensable in addressing questions of basic and applied research? (SI) __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 3. Give some examples of variables. Why are variables key to research? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________
  • 31. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 4. A program aims to reduce adult illiteracy by providing reading sessions during evening hours. Identify the dependent and independent variables. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 5. A study examines the impact of gender and drug use on school performance and political orientations. Identify the dependent and independent variables. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 6. It is said that in Sweden an empirical association exists between the presence of storks and the incidence of new babies. Explain what is necessary to establish a claim of causation. Do storks really bring babies?
  • 32. _________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 7. A study examines the relationship between race and crime. Is this a causal relationship or an association? Explain. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 8. Apply the following statement to program evaluation: “Research begins with asking questions.” Think about a program that you know about as a basis for answering this question. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________
  • 33. __________________________________________________________________ 9. The developers of the adult literacy program mentioned in question 4 claim that the program is effective. By what measures might this effectiveness be demonstrated? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 10. What might be some rival hypotheses regarding the effectiveness of this adult literacy program? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 11. Discuss an experimental research design for testing the effectiveness of an anger management program. Then apply the three quasi- experimental designs mentioned in Box 2.2 in the text. _________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________
  • 34. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ Application Exercises 1. Give examples of basic and applied research questions in your area of interest. (SI) __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 2. Give examples of quantitative and qualitative research methods in your area of interest. (SI) __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 3. Consider the following variables: the number of immigrants, attitudes toward abortion, and environmental pollution. What
  • 35. might be some attributes of each of the variables? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 4. You have been asked to develop a neighborhood crime control program. Thinking ahead, you develop a strategy for evaluating the program in subsequent months and years. Define the program and identify dependent and independent variables that can be used to evaluate it. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 5. Identify a problem in your area of interest. Identify the dependent and one or more independent variables affecting this problem. _________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________
  • 36. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 6. Consider a program or policy in your area of interest. How do the specific issues raised in the text regarding program evaluation apply to your program or policy? For instance, give some examples of how difficult it can be to document program outcomes. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 7. Discuss how you can apply the six steps of program evaluation to a specific program in your area of interest. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 8. Find an article that discusses a specific program evaluation and identify in it each of the six steps of program evaluation. __________________________________________________________________
  • 37. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 9. Identify some rival hypotheses (control variables) that might affect conclusions about the effectiveness of an adult literacy program. Then, discuss how an experimental research design and several quasi-experimental designs might be helpful for determining the effectiveness of the program. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 10. Define the objectives of a job training program, and then identify some rival hypotheses regarding possible outcomes. Explain how baselines and comparison groups might be used. _________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________
  • 38. __________________________________________________________________ Further Reading The all-time, best-selling, easy-to-read general textbook on research methods in social science (general) is Earl Babbie, The Practice of Social Research, 14th ed. or later (Belmont, Calif.: Wadsworth, 2016). A book with a focus on statistics in public administration is Maureen Berner, Statistics for Public Administration: Practical Uses for Better Decision Making, 2nd ed. (Washington, D.C.: ICMA, 2013). A variety of books on program evaluation may be found readily online, and we encourage readers to choose one. An example is David Royse, Bruce A. Thyer, and Deborah K. Padgett, Program Evaluation: An Introduction to an Evidence-Based Approach, 6th ed. (Boston, Mass.: Cengage, 2015). Another source with applications in public administration is Kathryn E. Newcomer, Harry P. Hatry, and Joseph S. Wholey (Eds.), Handbook of Practical Program Evaluation, 4th ed. (San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 2015). A classic book on program evaluation is Peter Rossi, Mark W. Lipsey, and Howard E. Freeman, Evaluation: A Systematic Approach, 7th ed. or later (Thousand Oaks, Calif.: Sage, 2003), but that book is now getting dated. Research methods are used widely in scholarly research, of course. The Journal of Policy Analysis and Management publishes many articles that evaluate specific programs and policies. Some of these articles, though not all, are grounded in economic thought. Policy journals are doing well these days, and many fields have their own policy journals, such as Education Policy, Transport Policy, Space Policy, Environmental Policy and Governance, Research Policy, and so on. Also, most empirical articles in the leading journals in public administration, political science, and nonprofit management use the terminology of independent, dependent, and control variables discussed in this chapter. You should have no problem picking up any leading scholarly journal in your field and finding these terms used. A few studies in public and nonprofit management and policy analysis use comparison groups and quasi-experimental designs, but most rely on statistical techniques to account for control variables. These techniques are discussed later in the textbook.
  • 39. Chapter 3 Conceptualization and Measurement Q & A 1. What is a scale? A scale is the collection of attributes that is used to measure a specific variable. Scales are important because they define the nature of information about variables. 2. What is a nominal-level scale? What is an ordinal-level scale? A nominal-level scale exhibits no ordering among the categories. The variable “region” is an example of a variable with a nominal scale. An ordinal-level scale exhibits order among categories, though without exact distances between successive categories. Likert scales are examples of ordinal scales. Variables with ordinal- or nominal-level scales are called categorical (or discrete) variables. 3. What is an interval-level scale? What is a ratio-level scale? Interval- and ratio-level scales exhibit both order and distance among categories. The only difference between interval and ratio scales is that the latter have a true zero. Income is an example of a ratio-level variable when it is measured in actual dollars; someone who earns $75,000 per year makes exactly three times that of someone making $25,000, and it is possible to make $0 (no income). The distinction between ratio- and interval-level variables is typically of little relevance to public and nonprofit administration and policy analysis. Variables with interval- and ratio-level scales are also called continuous variables. 4. What are incomplete, ambiguous, and overlapping scales? Why must they be avoided? An incomplete scale omits response categories, an ambiguous scale has ill-defined response categories, and an overlapping scale has at least one
  • 40. response that is covered by more than one category. Incomplete, ambiguous, and overlapping scales should be avoided because they have limited measurement validity. 5. Define and contrast the terms variable and concept. Variables are empirically observable phenomena that vary, whereas concepts are abstract ideas. Variables are observed directly; concepts are observed indirectly (through variables). 6. Describe the two steps involved in concept measurement. Concept measurement involves two steps: first, the process of specifying all relevant dimensions of concepts (conceptualization) and, second, the process of specifying which variables will be used to measure (operationalization). Complex concepts and those that are key to the research design are usually conceptualized with greater rigor than are those that are simple or less key to the program or evaluation. 7. What three strategies of operationalization are mentioned in the text? Three approaches to operationalization are (1) to develop separate measures for each dimension, (2) to develop a single set of measures that encompass the dimensions, and (3) to develop a single measure. These three strategies reflect a declining order of rigor. 8. What is the theorem of the interchangeability of indicators, and why is it important? The theorem of the interchangeability of indicators states that if several measures are equally valid indicators of a concept, then any subset of these measures will be valid as well. In other words, there are many valid ways to measure a given concept. This theorem is important because it implies that the analyst’s task is to choose one approach and then justify that that approach is a valid one. 9. What is an index variable? An index variable is a variable that combines the values of other variables into a single indicator or score. Index variables are commonly used to empirically measure abstract concepts and multifaceted phenomena. 10. How are index variables constructed?
  • 41. Index variables are constructed by summing the values of variables that measure distinct, though related, aspects of the concept. When a value of one or more measurement variable(s) is missing, the respective value of the index variable is also missing. (See Table 3.2 in the textbook for an example.) 11. Name four strategies for validating index variables. First, analysts argue that their measurement variables are reasonable from a theoretical perspective (that is, they have content validity). Second, they show that, empirically, index measures have an appropriate range of values. Third, they show that the variables are correlated with each other (that is, they have high internal reliability). Fourth, index variables can be compared with other known measures, derived from external (other studies) or internal (the same study) sources. Respectively, these are referred to as criterion and construct validity. 12. What is Cronbach alpha? What values are acceptable? Cronbach alpha, also called measure alpha, is a measure of internal reliability. This is the extent to which measurement variables are correlated with each other. Variables that measure the same concept are assumed to correlate with each other. Alpha values between 0.80 and 1.00 are considered good, values between 0.70 and 0.80 are acceptable, and values below 0.70 are poor and indicate a need for analysts to consider a different mix of measurement variables that measure their concept. Critical Thinking 1. Explain the following statement: “Scales should encompass all of the possible values that a variable can assume.” _________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________
  • 42. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 2. Explain the following statement. “Continuous-level scales are preferred over ordinal-level scales, which in turn are preferred over nominal-level scales.” __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 3. Explain how measurement scales (for example, Likert scales) can affect the phrasing of survey questions. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 4. The text states that “no correct number of dimensions or variables exist, only bad or lacking ones.” Explain this statement. __________________________________________________________________
  • 43. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 5. The text distinguishes three approaches to operationalization. When should the most rigorous approach be used? When should the least rigorous approach be used? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 6. A study wishes to measure “citizen trust in government” through the number of lawsuits filed against the federal government. Evaluate the measurement validity of this approach. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________
  • 44. 7. Explain the theorem of the interchangeability of indicators. _________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 8. Explain the following statement: “When one or more of the measurement variables are missing from an observation, the value of the index variables for that observation is missing, too.” What are the pros and cons of guessing the values of missing observations? Why should this not be done? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 9. Explain the following concepts, and give an example of each: (1) face validity, (2) construct validity, (3) criterion validity, and (4) content validity. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________
  • 45. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 10. Explain the following statement: “Analysts usually collect a few more variables than are minimally needed because they cannot know, prior to reliability analysis, which variable mix will have a sufficiently high alpha score to lend empirical support for the index measure.” __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ Application Exercises 1. Examine the citizen survey in the documentation for the Public Perceptions dataset, in Chapter 20 of this workbook. What level of measurement scale is used for the different items? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________
  • 46. __________________________________________________________________ 2. Give some examples of nominal-, ordinal-, interval-, and ratio-level variables in your area of interest. _________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 3. An analyst wishes to measure public support for a new welfare program. (1) Develop some suitable measures using Likert items on a survey. (2) Show how incomplete, ambiguous, and overlapping scales create problems of measurement validity. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 4. A survey of citizens assesses the extent to which they perceive that the federal government works democratically. A second study measures the extent to which the governments of different countries are democratic. Conceptualize democracy in each of these two study contexts. __________________________________________________________________
  • 47. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 5. Develop an index variable to measure “fear of statistics” among students in public and nonprofit management. Then develop an index variable to measure a concept in your area of interest. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 6. Select a sample of six Government Accountability Office reports (see Box 2.1 in the text) or scholarly articles that use empirical data. Examine how these reports or articles address the matter of measurement validity. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________
  • 48. __________________________________________________________________ 7. Develop some measures that might be used in a study that assesses a neighborhood crime control program. Discuss some challenges of measurement validity as well as strategies for dealing with these challenges. _________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ Further Reading Conceptualization and measurement are typically discussed in books on research methods and program evaluation, and readers are referred to those mentioned in Chapter 2 of this workbook. It is instructive to consider articles that show different approaches to operationalizing study concepts. An example of the first approach to operationalization discussed in the text (measures of different dimensions combined in separate indices and subsequently aggregated into a “super” index) is XiaoHu Wang, Christopher V. Hawkins, Nick Lebredo, and Evan M. Berman, “Capacity to Sustain Sustainability: A Study of U.S. Cities,” Public Administration Review 72 (2012): 841–853. This study shows index measures of environmental sustainability practices, economic sustainability practices, and social sustainability practices. Each of these measures is composed of 10 or more survey items, and each of these index measures is subsequently aggregated into a super index of “sustainability.” A similar approach is taken on a very different topic in Evan M. Berman and Jonathan P. West, “Managing Emotional Intelligence in U.S. Cities: A Study of Public
  • 49. Managers,” Public Administration Review 68 (2008) 742–758. This article shows how “emotional intelligence” is conceptualized using four dimensions. The scientific literature is full of such examples on a broad range of topics, including environmental sustainability, organizational inclusion, neighborhood safety, and others. Many articles also validate their index measures such as through triangulation. You may want to research your library’s resources for articles that show indexes in your area of interest.
  • 50. Chapter 4 Measuring and Managing Performance: Present and Future Q & A 1. What is performance measurement? Performance measurement provides a real-time assessment of what a program is doing, what resources it is using, and what it has accomplished recently. As an analytical process, it is designed to produce such information on an ongoing basis; it provides a snapshot that integrates important, frequently quantitative information about programs and policies. Performance measurement helps managers improve program monitoring and accountability and, by focusing on measurable results, improve program performance and stakeholder satisfaction, too. 2. How is performance measurement related to program evaluation? Whereas program evaluation focuses on the past (what has a program or policy achieved?), performance measurement focuses on the present (what is a program or policy achieving?). Performance measurement developed from program evaluation. While thorough, program evaluation can be quite cumbersome and hence may produce information that is neither ongoing nor timely for management purposes. By contrast, performance measurement aims to be an up-to-date management information system. 3. What is the logic model? The logic model is a way of conceptualizing program performance that shows relationships among inputs, activities, outputs, outcomes, and goals. (See Chapter 4 in the textbook for a schematic model.) 4. What is the difference between outputs and outcomes? Outputs are the immediate, direct results of program activities.
  • 51. Outcomes are specific changes in behaviors or conditions that are measures of goal attainment. 5. What problem of measurement validity is mentioned in the text in connection with performance measurement, and how is it addressed? Performance measures should avoid problems of inaccurate or incomplete measurement. In practice, performance measures do have these problems, and managers need to be clear about what their performance measures include and what they do not. Performance measures are best regarded as indicators only, to be used in conjunction with other, often qualitative information about programs and policies. 6. What is effectiveness? Effectiveness is the level of results of a program or treatment. It is typically measured by one or more output or outcome measures. 7. What is efficiency? Efficiency is the unit cost to produce a good or service. It is calculated as the output or outcomes over inputs, or O/I. Efficiency indicators can be calculated in different ways and should reflect program management concerns. 8. What are workload ratios? Workload ratios are the ratios of activities over inputs, or A/I. For example, a workload ratio is the number of students in anger management courses per teacher providing such courses. Distinguishing between workload ratios and efficiency measures is important: a high caseload of clients does not mean that they are being served well. 9. What are benchmarks? Benchmarks are standards against which performance is measured. Internal benchmarks are standards that organizations select based on what their own prior programs have achieved or on what they feel is appropriate. External benchmarks are standards that are set based on the performance of other organizations and programs. 10. What are equity measures? Equity measures are used to compare performance across different
  • 52. groups. Often, output and outcome measures can be analyzed for different populations, types of organizations, and the like. 11. What is performance management? Performance management is generally defined as activities to ensure that goals are consistently being met in an effective and efficient manner. Activities include using performance measures for improving accountability, service delivery, and managerial decision making, which is our focus here. Performance analysis is used in performance management to gain an understanding of program performance and the factors affecting it. 12. What is forecasting? How is it related to planning? A forecast is a prediction about the future. This is sometimes also called a projection or prognosis. Forecasting is different from planning; whereas forecasting discusses what the future will look like, planning provides a normative model of what the future should look like. Planning often starts with forecasting to establish what the future is likely to look like in order to develop alternative futures or scenarios that might be preferred. 13. How are statistical methods used for forecasting? Statistical methods typically describe and aim to extrapolate quantitative trends based on past and present data. Analysis can involve no more than the simple extrapolation of the past few data points, but it can also analyze complex cyclical patterns and model other variables affecting past and present levels. 14. What are judgment-based methods of forecasting? Judgment-based methods of forecasting often use experts to assess the likelihood of futures occurring. Experts can be brought together in groups or as individuals. For example, the Delphi method is a forecasting method that asks experts to respond anonymously through several rounds of written surveys. 15. What are some key practices and standards for making forecasts? Forecasts are more reliable for shorter periods; forecasting should use multiple methods; data and experts should be as up-to-date and valid as
  • 53. possible; forecasts should use as much information as possible about the past, present, and future; assumptions and limitations should be stated clearly; the accuracy of forecasts should be determined wherever possible; forecasts of more complex methods are not always more accurate than simple ones; forecasting should begin by identifying a full range of possible future scenarios and events; forecasting should note unusual past events that affect past data and adjust forecasts or the data accordingly; and forecasters should expect their forecasts to be challenged. Critical Thinking 1. How is a system of key indicators such as performance measurement different from a system of comprehensive measurement? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 2. Explain how performance measurement provides useful information about programs and policies, even if it is not free from measurement errors. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________
  • 54. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 3. Is the number of arrests by police officers an activity, an output, or an outcome? Explain your answer. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 4. Give an example of the distinction between efficiency and a workload ratio not mentioned in the text. __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ 5. Examine the measures in Table 4.1 in the textbook. Can you improve on these? Can you identify other measures? In what way might inaccurate or incomplete data affect these measures? __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________
  • 55. Exploring the Variety of Random Documents with Different Content
  • 56. Belgian coasts, the waters through which most of the world's trade must pass," cried Haeseler enthusiastically. "But that would mean annexation of Belgium and Holland," demanded Franz. Count Haeseler, having instructions not to answer questions of that kind, bent over a series of maps illustrating the history of Frederick the Second, while the War Lord, disregarding the question, commanded curtly: "The strategic points, please." Count Haeseler traced them at the end of a blue pencil: "King Frederick planned a quick march from the Rhine through Belgium, forcing Liége, then the capital of an ecclesiastical principality, and pouncing upon Nieuport on the North Sea. Next, he intended to attack Dunkirk and Gravelines. Then to Calais. His final objective point was Paris, of course." "Never heard of such a plan," said Franz. "Because at Frederick's time these territories were an apanage of the Habsburgs," volunteered the War Lord. "Proceed, Haeseler." "I can only reassert what I have submitted to Your Majesty more than once—namely, that King Frederick's plan is as sound to- day as at the time——" "When Prussia presented England with Canada and made secure her Empire in India," interrupted the War Lord. "And isn't she grateful for the inestimable services rendered by us with a generous heart?" he continued, warming his thighs and his wrath at the gas logs. "Won't allow us to acquire coaling stations in any part of the world. Shuts the door in our face in Africa, Asia and America, and supports with treasure and blood, if necessary, any scheme intended to impede Germany's progress, territorially and economically.
  • 57. "We depend for our very life on foreign trade, yet England would restrict us to the Baltic and a few yards of North Sea coast. "Franz," he cried, rising and holding out his hand, "I will turn the Adriatic into an inland lake for the Emperor of the Slavs if you will help me secure the French Channel coast line, the north-eastern districts and the continental shores of the Straits of Dover. Is it a bargain?" Franz, too, had risen, and was about to clasp the War Lord's hand when his eye lit upon the field-marshal. "You bound me to secrecy," he said doggedly, "yet our private pourparlers seem to be property of your General Staff." "The heads of my General Staff know as much as I want them to, Herr von Este, no more, no less," replied the War Lord in a strident voice. Then, in less serious mood: "Come, now, the Kapellmeister does not play all the instruments, does he? and don't you think I have more important things to do than worry over charts and maps and figures. That is his work," inclining his head toward the field-marshal. When Franz the Sullen still withheld acquiescence the War Lord continued in a bantering tone: "He is preparing the way, is Haeseler. While at Strassburg and neighbourhood, take a look at his sixteenth army corps, kneaded and knocked into invincibility by him. If there is a superior war machine, then our Blücher was beaten at Waterloo. Let his boys once get across the French frontier—they will never again leave La Belle France. Haeseler catechism!" And more in the same boastful martinet vein, winding up with the promise of sending to the Austrian heir de luxe editions of Haeseler's contributions to the General Staff history of the Franco-
  • 58. German War and of his technical writings on cavalry exercises and war discipline—a sure way of pleasing Franz. Yet it was patent enough that the Jesuit disciple was only half mollified. Desperate means were in order! "I tell you what"—the War Lord dropped his voice—"I will lend you Haeseler for a fortnight or a month. Invite him to Konopischt" (the Austrian heir's Hungarian seat) "and find out everything. What he doesn't know about horse, foot and artillery, especially horse, is not worth knowing." At last Franz's face lit up. "I'll take you at your word," he said warmly. Franz's thirst for military knowledge was insatiable. He had read most of the books, ancient and modern, on the science of war; had consulted all living army leaders of the day; was, of course, in constant communication with his own General Staff; and knew the methods of the Austrian, Russian, German and Spanish cavalry, both by practice and observation, since he took his honorary proprietorship of the Bavarian Heavy Troopers, the Saxon Lancers, the Russian 26th Dragoons and the Spanish Mounted Chasseurs very seriously. But to have Haeseler for private mentor and adviser, to be hand and glove with the premier cavalry expert of the world, at one time apprentice of Frederick Charles, the Red Prince, was indeed a priceless privilege. "Will you come?" he asked Haeseler. "Oh yes, he is coming, don't you worry," cried the War Lord, even before Haeseler finished the phrase: "At your Imperial Highness's command."
  • 59. "His Excellency shall demonstrate to me that the offensive partnership you propose will be to mutual advantage," said Franz quickly, to forestall possible further arguments on the exchange of the Italian Adriatic for the French-Belgian-Dutch Channel coasts. CHAPTER XVII DIAMOND CUT DIAMOND The War Lord's Secret Staircase—Some Outspoken Opinions—Royal Fisticuffs—Otto of Bavaria—A Secret Service Man—More Dreams The reports of two meetings between exalted personages, held on the eve of the day memorable for the conference at the General Staff building, would furnish a clever editor with "deadly parallels" of vast interest. Dramatis personæ of one meeting: The War Lord and Bülow. Scene: The library of the Frederick Leopold Palace, nearly opposite the Chancellory. Meeting number two: Franz von Este and Lorenz Schlauch, Cardinal Archbishop of Gross Wardein, Hungary. Scene: A private parlour in the Hôtel de Rome, near the Schloss. The pall of secrecy hung over both trysting places. Cardinal Schlauch, of his Hungarian Majesty's most obnoxious Opposition,
  • 60. would have lost caste with his followers if seen with the "Habsburg Nero," and the latter would have had a strenuous quart d'heure with Francis Joseph had "Uncle" known of his intimacy with Schlauch. Hence the room at the hotel, and Adolph Muehling, guard of honour, outside the door. Why press the old proprietor into service, when a word to the Commandant of Berlin would have brought sentinels galore? Because Count Udo von Wedell, head of the German Secret Service, occasionally unloads a uniformed stenographer on an unsuspecting, but suspected, visitor to Berlin; and, Udo failing, Captain von Tappken, his right-hand man, might be tempted to do so. Spy mistrusts spy, you know. On his part the War Lord was as anxious to keep his conference with Bülow from Franz, as Este was to invent excuses for wishing a night free from social duties or official business. Accordingly Wilhelm had twice changed the programme. His first idea was to receive Bülow at the Schloss. No; Franz might hear of it. His valet (Father Bauer) was singularly well supplied with money, and royal lackeys (confound them!) prefer trinkgeld to medals, even. Again, he might drive to the Wilhelmstrasse himself, if it were not for those penny-a-liners at the Kaiserhof, a whole contingent of them, bent on getting coin out of nothing. Already vague hints at an incognito royal visitor had appeared in one or two gutter journals. "Augustus tells me that Frederick Leopold had his Berlin house thoroughly overhauled. Nothing unusual about inspecting the renovated lair of the Prussian Croesus?" suggested Prince Phili Eulenburg. He referred, of course, to the Grand Master of Ceremony
  • 61. and the Lord of Klein-Glenicke, the War Lord's cousin and brother-in- law. "By Jove, you are almost too smart for an ambassador, Phili," cried Majesty; "you deserve a wider field, the Wilhelmstrasse or the Governorship of Klein-Popo should be yours. Meanwhile, and until one of those posts becomes vacant, 'phone Bülow to meet me in Leopold's library at nine sharp. Moltke shall send six men of the First Guards to investigate garden and all, and they will remain for corridor duty. Augustus, of course, must communicate with Leopold's maître d'hôtel." At 8.55 P.M. the War Lord, in mufti, fur collar of his great-coat hugging the tops of his ears, slipped down the secret staircase leading from his apartments to a side door, and into Count von Wedell's quiet coupé. The Secret Service man who acted as groom had mapped out a circuitous route, avoiding the Linden and Charlottenstrasse. When the carriage passed the Kaiserhof the War Lord could not resist the temptation to bend forward. "Udo," he said, "are you not ashamed of yourself, robbing these poor devils at the journalists' table? If they knew how I am suffering in your springless cab—oh, but it does hurt!—it would mean at least ten marks in their pocket." "Confound their impudence," said Count von Wedell. "But Your Majesty's criticism of the coupé is most à propos—just in time to insert the item for a new one in the appropriation." "The devil!" cried the War Lord. "I thought this ramshackle chariot your personal property." Wilhelm likes to spend other people's money, but with State funds it is different, for every pfennig spent for administration
  • 62. reduces the total His Majesty "acquires." True, Prussia spells despotism tempered by Parliament, but her kings can never forget the good old times when appropriations for the Court were only limited by the State's utmost resources. "My own!" gasped Wedell. "Would I dare worry Your Majesty's sacred bones in an ark like this?" The carriage entered the palace stableyard, the gates of which opened noiselessly in obedience to a significant crack of the whip. Sentinels posted inside and out, civil service men in frock-coats and top-hats, who muttered numbers to their chief, replying in kind! "Everything all right, Bülow upstairs," whispered Udo in Russian. He went ahead of the War Lord through lines of his men, posted at intervals of three paces in the courtyard and at the entrance. The vestibule was splendid with electric light for the first time in the history of the old palace. As the suspicious War Lord observed, Marshal Augustus had been busy indeed. Heavy portières everywhere, over doors, windows, and oeils-de-boeuf; to passers-by the Leopold Palace was as dead and forlorn as during the past several years. Up the newly carpeted grand stairway the War Lord rushed. The smiling Bülow stood at the library door. Wilhelm merely extended his hand; he was too full of his subject to reply to Bülow's respectful greetings and inquiries after his health. "Wedell will stay," he said, "for our talk will concern his department no less than yours." Bülow had arranged arm-chairs about the blazing fireplace, but the War Lord was in no mood to sit down.
  • 63. "Here's a devil of a mess," he said, "just discovered it in time. That confounded Este is too much of a blackleg to be trusted." "Too deeply steeped in clericalism," suggested Bülow. "That and Jesuitism, Romanism, Papism and every other sableism. Found him out in our first confab, and to-day's meeting with Haeseler confirmed it. He will never consent to a Roman Empire of German nationality. Wants all Italy for himself and Rome for his Church. Intolerable!" cried the War Lord, as he strode up and down. "Twenty marks if Otto were in his place." The War Lord's joke drew tears of appreciative hilarity from the obsequious eyes of the two courtier-politicians. "Your Majesty's remark reminds me of a patriotic speech made by the Prince of Bueckeberg at the beginning of the railway age: 'We must have a railway in Lippe, even if it costs five thousand thalers,' said His Transparency, amid thunderous applause." This from the Chancellor, who, like Talleyrand, delights in quotations and has a knack of introducing other people's witty, or stupid, sayings when desiring to remain uncommittal on his own part. In this instance he would rather exhaust Bartlett and his German confrère Hertslet than discuss that Prince of mauvais sujets, Otto of Austria. At the time of the discussion (it was in 1903—three years before the royal degenerate died) the father of the present heir to the Dual Monarchy was on the apex of his ill-fame. He beat his wife and his creditors, he disgraced his rank, his manhood, and, though thirty-eight years of age, was frightened from committing the worst excesses at home only by the threat of corporal punishment at the hands of his uncle, the Emperor. For
  • 64. Francis Joseph, most Olympian of monarchs, according to the upholders of Spanish etiquette at the Hofburg, is very apt indeed to give a good imitation of the petty household tyrant when roused. For this reason, probably, his late consort, the Empress Elisabeth, used to liken him to a cobbler. Francis Joseph's most recent fistic exploit at Otto's expense was still, at that time, the talk of the European Courts. It appears that His Imperial Highness, at dinner with boon companions, had emptied a dish of spinach over the head of uncle's marble statue, and prolonged the fun by firing over-ripe tomatoes, pimentos, spaghetti and other dainties at the already abundantly decorated effigy. When finally he ordered Count Salm, his Court marshal, to send for a "mandel"—fifteen pieces—of ancient eggs to vary the bombardment, Salm refusing, of course, he assaulted the Excellency, sword in hand, and a general medley ensued, in which considerable blue blood was spilt. No lives lost, yet the innocent bit of passe- temps brought the Emperor's fist and cane into play again. But our mutton is getting cold. "Unfortunately," said von Bülow, "Franz Ferdinand is a particularly healthy specimen of humanity." "And even should he die like a Balkan royalty——" suggested von Wedell. "I thought you had been unable definitely to trace Russia's fine Italian hand in the Belgrade murders?" demanded the War Lord sharply. "For which many thanks," murmured Bülow.
  • 65. "With Your Majesty's permission, I referred to the older generation of Balkan assassins," said Udo. "Well, let it pass, Monsieur le Duc d'Otrante." The War Lord frequently addressed his Minister of Police by Fouché's title, while commenting upon Napoleon's bad taste in raising that functionary to so high an estate. "After all," he used to say, "he was nothing but a spy, and as treacherous as the Corsican himself." This, it will be observed, came with peculiar ill grace from Wilhelm, who, like the first Emperor of the French, demeaned himself to direct personally his Secret Service, and to associate with the cashiered army officers, agents provocateurs, etc., of this branch of government. "What if Otto, as Emperor of the Slavs, sets up a claim for all Poland, Your Majesty's with the rest?" Bülow had asked. "I would rather see my sixty millions of people dead on the battle-field than give up an inch of ground gained by Frederick the Great and the rest of my ancestors!" cried the War Lord, as if he were haranguing a mob. "Besides, why should Otto, more than Franz, covet my patrimony?" "Because of his relationship with the Saxon Court through her Imperial Highness Josepha." "Pipe-dreams——" snarled the War Lord contemptuously. Then, seeing Bülow redden, he added: "On Otto's part, I mean." "I beg Majesty's pardon—not entirely," quoth Wedell. "Dresden is still making sheep's eyes at Warsaw, and when Your Majesty spoke about a grand Imperial palace to be built in Posen, King George remarked: 'Suits me to the ground. I hope he'll make it after the kind American multimillionaires boast of.' This on the authority of
  • 66. a Saxon noble whose family established itself in the kingdom long before Albert the Bold." "Children and disgruntled aristocrats tell the truth," commented the War Lord; "sometimes, at least," he added after a while. Then suddenly facing Bülow, he continued in an angry tone: "That black baggage, wherever one turns. Unless there be a Lutheran Pope, Monsieur l'Abée de Rome will try and catholicise Prussia, even as Benedict XIV. tried to do through Maria Theresa." "It was another Benedict, was it not, who offered public prayers that Heaven be graciously pleased to foment quarrels between the heretic Powers?" suggested Bülow, pulling a volume on historic dates from the shelf as if to verify his authority. "What of it?" demanded the War Lord impatiently. "One of the heretic Powers prayed against was England, Your Majesty." "And you want to insinuate that I must pocket all the insults Edward may find it expedient to heap upon me?" "Nothing is farther from my mind, of course. I merely meant to point to the historic fact that the Catholics always pool their interests, always fight back to back, while the disunity and open rivalries among non-Catholic Powers——" "I know the litany," interrupted the War Lord rudely; "but let's return to Este. What do you intend to do with that chap?" "Make him work for us tooth and nail," said Bülow, "and as for any extra dances with the Saxon or His Holiness—well, Udo will keep an eye on him. From this hour on he must be kept under constant observation, whether at home or abroad, in his family circle or the
  • 67. army mess, at manoeuvre or the chase, at the Hradschin or at Konopischt." The War Lord, visibly impressed, laid his massive right hand on Count von Wedell's shoulder. "Where is Este now?" looking at the clock. "Suite eighteen, Hôtel de Rome." "With whom?" "Cardinal Schlauch." "Bishop Tank of Gross-Wardein? And who is watching them?" "Number 103, garlic and bartwichse to the backbone." "Under the bed?" "No, Your Majesty; in it. I varied the programme for His Highness's sake. Like an old maid who persists in the hope of catching a man sometime, he never misses looking under the bed." "I will examine '103' in Königgrätzerstrasse at 9 A.M. to- morrow," commanded the War Lord; "and, Udo, if you love me, have him well aired. An hour or two of goose-step would do the garlic- eater the world of good." The number, of course, referred to a Secret Service man. They have no names so far as the Government knows, or wants to know, and, despite their usefulness, are looked upon as mauvais sujets. To make up for this their pay is rather better than that of the average German official. They get a little less than the equivalent of £4 a week and 10s. a day for expenses. These sums constitute the retaining fee; their main income depends on the jobs they are able to pull off. They get paid for all business transacted, in accordance with its importance. When on a foreign mission, they may send in
  • 68. bills up to £2 per day for personal expenses, but in all ordinary circumstances the 10s. per diem must suffice. The War Lord turned once more to Bülow. "You said: 'Make him work for us.' I would willingly sentence him for life to the treadmill. What's your idea of work for Franz?" "I refer to Your Majesty's complaint that the Austrian army is in a state of unreadiness, of unpreparedness for war. Now, while I have no opinion whatever as to Herr von Este's capacity as a general, I do know that organisation and discipline are ruling passions with him." "He would rather beat a recruit than go to Mass," interpolated Udo. "The right spirit," approved the War Lord, "and it shall serve my purposes. I taught the Bavarians to out-Prussian the Prussian; the Austrians shall follow suit, or Franz will know the reason why. "A drill-ground bully by nature and inclination, he will know how to make an end to Blue Danube saloperie; and if strap and rod won't do, he will use scorpions, like that ancient King of Judea—or did he hail from Mecklenburg, Bülow?" Autocratically ruled Mecklenburg is Bülow's own particular fatherland. "I am sure the riding-whip always sufficed in our domains," smiled the Chancellor; "but Your Majesty is right: rose water wouldn't make much impression on Slovaks and Croatians." "Well then," said the War Lord, "here is the programme: No more about Lutheran popeship, Holy Roman Empire of German nationality, future of the Holy See and so forth. Nauseate him, on the other hand, with Austrian military schweinerei (piggishness), which ought to disappear from the face of the earth in the shortest
  • 69. possible order to make room for the glories of Prussian drill, discipline and efficiency. "With von der Goltz knocking the Turk into shape and Franz Este driving the devil of irresolution and maniana out of the Dual Monarchy, we will be in a position to defy the world—and to fight it, too." CHAPTER XVIII A SECRET SERVICE EPISODE No. 103 Arrives—The Spy's Report—The Archduke and the Cardinal—The Ruling of the Church Count von Wedell's office on Königgratzerstrasse. Royal coupé driving up and down the opposite side of the street. No groom—dismounted chasseur with feather hat stands guard at the big oaken door entrance. Long-legged brown horses, evident habitat: England. As a rule, the War Lord drives with blacks or greys; likewise the wheel-spokes of the vehicles used by him are gilded. Those of the carriage we observe are chocolate colour, with just a thin silver line. Wilhelm sometimes travels incog. in his own capital. By the way, why always chocolate-coloured carriages when royalty does not wish to radiate official lustre? In the reminiscences of the third Napoleon "the little
  • 70. brown coupé" figured largely when the Emperor of the French went poaching on strange preserves, and other monarchs had the same preference. Inside the Imperial office building: sentinels with fixed bayonets at each corridor entrance; over the coco-nut mat, covering the right- hand passage, a thick red Turkey runner; Secret Service men in top- hats and Prince Albert coats every ten paces. At the extreme end a big steel double door. "No. 103," whispered the speaking-tube into Count Wedell's ear. "Three minutes late," snarled that official; "but I will pay him back." "No. 103," in faultless evening dress (though it is nine in the morning), is conducted through the right-hand passage. He is at home here, but no one recognises him. Secret Service rule: No comradeship with other agents of the Government. You are a number, no more. As he is ushered through the lines of sentinels, the royal chasseur, drawn broadsword in his right, opens the door with his left hand. Count Wedell meets him on the threshold. "Kept Majesty waiting," grumbled the Privy Councillor sotto voce. "Cab broke down, Excellency," No. 103 excused himself. "Don't let it happen again. You will stand under the chandelier facing the inner room. Attention!" commanded the chief. And at attention, every nerve vibrating with excitement and expectancy, No. 103 stood like a statue in the Avenue of Victory, but with rather more grace, for no man living could imitate the War Lord's marble dolls without provoking murder. Wedell had gone into
  • 71. the inner room, the entrance of which was framed by heavy damask portières with gold lace set a jour. "Portholes," thought No. 103, sizing up the decorations; and, keyhole artist that he is, he soon met a pair of eyes gazing at him through the apertures. "Majesty taking a peep," he reflected. "I wonder what he thinks of the man who went back on his native Nero for filthy lucre." Whether he thought well of him or not, the War Lord kept No. 103 standing full twenty-five minutes. If in his youth he had not had a particularly cruel drill-ground sergeant, he could not have endured the pain and fatigue. Suddenly the portières parted: the War Lord, seated at a "diplomat's" writing-desk; Count Wedell, toying with a self-cocking six-shooter, stood at his left. "If that thing goes off and accidentally hits me," thought No. 103, "there is a trap-door under this rug, and a winding staircase leading to a sewer, I suppose, as in the Doge's Palace." Comforting thought, but who cares for a spy? "Approach," ordered the War Lord in a high-pitched voice. When No. 103 was within three paces of the Majesty, Wedell held up his hand. "His Majesty wants to know all about last night," said the Privy Councillor. "Did Herr von Este really look under the bed?" queried the War Lord, tempering the essential by the ridiculous. "He did indeed," replied No. 103; "and I nearly betrayed my presence between the sheets watching him." "What happened?"
  • 72. "Nothing, Your Majesty; just a thought passing through my mind." "Out with it," cried the War Lord, when No. 103 stopped short. The agent provocateur looked appealingly at Count Wedell. "I humbly beg to be excused." "I command you!" "Well then, Your Majesty, it occurred to me that I ought to have planted a mark's worth of asafoetida under that bed." Did the stern Majesty laugh? He guffawed and roared enough to split his sides—the lines between the sublime and the low are not tightly drawn in Berlin. "This fellow has wit," said the War Lord to Udo. "When you come to think of it, asafoetida is mighty appropriate ammunition to use against the Jesuit disciple." Then, with a look to No. 103: "Proceed." "Details and all," commanded von Wedell. "The minutest," emphasised the War Lord. "May it please Your Majesty, I was in that bed three hours before the parties came into the room. The Cardinal had hired Suite 18 expressly for the meeting, his lodgings being elsewhere in the hotel. He was first to arrive, and swore lustily because there was no crucifix or prie-Dieu, as ordered. "Cursed like a trooper, eh?" cried the War Lord. "Make a note of that, Udo. When I am Lutheran pope I will visit the grand bane upon any cardinal guilty of saying naughty words." "Your Majesty will have the All Highest hands full," remarked von Wedell. "What about Prince Max?"
  • 73. "I shall take devilish good care that the Saxon idiot never achieves the red hat. Making eyes at Warsaw and a friend at the Curia! What next?" To No. 103: "Proceed." "An impromptu altar was quickly set up, and when Herr von Este was announced——" "What name?" interrupted the War Lord. "Ritter von Wognin, Your Majesty." Count von Wedell promptly explained: "One of the minor Chotek titles." "I always said he was his wife's husband," affirmed the War Lord, with an oath. Then, to No. 103: "Well?" "The Cardinal had taken his stand at the side of the crucifix, and when the Ritter walked in elevated his hand pronouncing the benediction, whereupon the Austrian heir dropped on his knees. The Cardinal seemed in no hurry to see him rise, but finally held out his hand, saying: 'In the name of the Holy Church I welcome thee, my son.' "And Este kissed his hand, didn't he?" cried the War Lord. "He certainly bent over the Cardinal's hand, and I heard a smack," replied No. 103. "That settles it," said the War Lord; "the foot-kiss for me when I am pope of the Lutheran Church." "May it please Your Majesty," continued No. 103, "the two gentlemen then settled down in easy chairs and engaged in a long, whispered conversation in which alleged sayings of Your Majesty were freely quoted by Herr von Este." "Enough," interrupted the War Lord; and at a sign from Wedell No. 103 backed towards the door, which opened from outside. "You
  • 74. will await a possible further summons in here," said Count Wedell's secretary, ushering No. 103 into a waiting-room. "How much has that fellow got on credit?" demanded the War Lord. Wedell pulled out a card index drawer. "Upwards of thirteen thousand marks." "He knows that he'll lose it to the last pfennig if he squeals?" "The case of our man who exchanged Barlinnie Jail for the service of Sir Edward Grey brought that home with peculiar force to everybody in the Wilhelmstrasse and Königgrätzerstrasse," replied Udo. It should be interpolated here that German spies receive only two-thirds of the bonuses accruing to them. One-third of all "extras" remain in the hands of the Government at interest, to be refunded when his spyship is honourably discharged. If he is caught and does not betray his trust, then these savings par order de mufti are paid over to his family or other heirs; if he betrays his Government, then the Government gets even with him by confiscating the spy's accumulated savings, which arrangement gives the Secret Service office a powerful hold on its employees. "Very well, recall the millionaire-on-good-behaviour," quoth the Majesty. No. 103 proved the possession of a marvellously retentive memory. Quoting His Highness's confidences to the Cardinal, he repeated almost word for word the War Lord's conversation with Franz, both at the Schloss and at the General Staff office. "Any memoranda used?" demanded Wilhelm abruptly. "None, Your Majesty."
  • 75. "Did the Cardinal take notes?" "No, Your Majesty. When Herr von Este urged him to do so, he said it was unnecessary, since he never forgot matters of importance; in fact, could recite a text verbatim after tens of years." "Curse their stenographic memories," said the War Lord. "I hope you were careful to note what Schlauch said," he added in a stern, almost threatening voice. "I memorised his talk to the dotlets on the i's," replied the Secret Service man, bowing low. "Quite an easy matter, for His Eminence used words sparingly— "To conceal his thoughts, of course." This from the War Lord. Then No. 103 read the "notes" from his mental memorandum pad. The Cardinal, it appears, laid down three rules "for the guidance of his 'dear son' and all other Catholic princes: "I. Agreements with heretic sovereigns do not count unless they serve the interests of the Church. "II. If the proposed Slav Empire would bring about the submission of the orthodox heretics to the Church of Rome, no amount of blood and treasure spent in so laudable a cause may be called extravagant, the sacrifice being for God Almighty. "III. But if there should be a by-product" (our own term, the Cardinal's being too circumstantial) "a by-product in the shape of a heretic pope—pardon the blasphemous word—then Franz's ambition would be a stench in the nostrils of the Almighty, excommunication would be his fate in this world, the deepest abyss of hell in the other." Count von Wedell, misinterpreting his master, thought "it was to laugh," but a look upon the War Lord's face caused him to change
  • 76. his attitude. "Pay No. 103 five thousand marks, half in cash, half in reserve," said Wilhelm, disregarding the one-third clause for a purpose, no doubt. "I have no further commands for him at present." Count Wedell stepped forward from the inner room, and the portières automatically closed before No. 103 had finished his obeisance. CHAPTER XIX BERTHA AND FRANZ On Forbidden Ground—A Talk on Brain-Curves—Bertha is Afraid—Shades of Krupp—"Charity Covers ——"—A Dramatic Exit "Oh, Franz, tell me what it all means!" If Bertha and the chief engineer had been real lovers, and had selected the moon for a place of rendezvous, they could not have been safer from intrusion than in the late Frederick Krupp's library with the door unlocked, for the "room sacred to His Majesty" was a sort of Bluebeard chamber into which no eye but the War Lord's and Bertha's must look. Bertha had shown her mother a parcel of documents which Uncle Majesty had ordered her to read carefully. "I will go to the
  • 77. library, where I will be undisturbed," she said in her decisive tone, while the butler was serving early strawberries sent from Italy. Strawberries in January in a little Rhenish town! It reminds us that when Charles V., warrior and gourmet-gourmand, sucked an orange in winter-time, his Court was prostrate with astonishment and admiration. And Alexis Orloff won Catherine the Great from his brother Gregory—temporarily, at least—by sending to the Semiramis of the North a plate of strawberries for the New Year. Yet nowadays any well-to-do person can indulge all the year round in the luxuries that made Charles and Catherine the envied of their Imperial class. Bertha was in the War Lord's chair, for she felt very Olympian since she had returned from the Berlin Court, while Franz sat on the tabouret affected by the Krupp heiress during the interviews with her guardian. "What did Zara really mean?" repeated Bertha. "Are you prepared to hear the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth?" queried Franz. Bertha Krupp moved uneasily in her high seat. Her mental stature had advanced rapidly under the War Lord's teachings, disguised as coaxings, and while the sound principles implanted in her bosom by a good mother were at bottom unimpaired, she was beginning to learn the subtle art of putting her conscience to sleep when occasion demanded—a touch of Machiavellism! Just now she would have loved to shut up Franz, as she was wont to silence her mother by a word or look, though less rudely, perhaps, but her fondness for the man—though she was not at all in love with Franz—forced her to be frank with him.
  • 78. "Speak as a friend to a friend," she said warmly. "Well then——" began Franz. Bertha covered his mouth with her hand. "A moment, please. May I tell Uncle Majesty?" "What I have to say is no secret of mine and certainly it is not news to the War Lord. By all means tell him if you dare." "If I dare?" echoed Bertha. "My own words." Franz spoke very earnestly, almost solemnly: "Will you hear me to the end, whether you like the tune or not?" "If it relates to Zara's prophecies, I will," said Bertha. "But," she added falteringly, "you know I mustn't listen to criticism of my guardian." Franz shrugged. "I quite understand. Forbidden ground even for your Mother." Bertha felt the sting of reproval keenly, and did not like it. Indeed, at the moment she would have given up gladly a considerable portion of her wealth to be restored to Franz's unconditional and unrestricted good graces. So, humbling herself, she temporarily abandoned her high estate and again became the unsophisticated girl whom Franz used to call sister. "Do go on," she urged; "it was all so romantic, so strange, so mysterious, and you know I love to feel creepy." Franz had risen and approached the great central window. "May I draw the curtains?" he asked, looking over his shoulder. "They must not see you. I will." Bertha tugged the golden cords. "Working overtime again?" she queried, as she observed the blazing smoke-stacks.
  • 79. "More's the pity, for every pound of steam going up those chimneys means so many lives lost, and for all those lives, Bertha, you will have to account to God." "Old wives' tales," commented the Krupp heiress, as if the War Lord in person played souffleur. "On the contrary, as you well know, war preparedness means peace, means preservation; and with us in particular it means happiness and prosperity to the ten thousands of families in this favoured valley. It spells education, arts, music, care of children and of the sick and disabled. It means cheerfulness, such as ample wage and a future secured confer; it means care-free old age." As she recounted these benefits her enterprises were actually dispensing Bertha looked at the chief engineer with a slightly supercilious air. "Well rehearsed," remarked Franz dryly. "Oh, if you want to be rude——" "I do," said Franz, taking hold of her wrist; "I am sick of all this lying palaver about good coming out of evil, and I want you to be sick of it too, Bertha." The Krupp heiress leaned back in her chair, crossing her arms. "At the American Embassy I heard rather a quaint saying day before yesterday: 'Go as far as you like.' "A most apt saying," admitted Franz. "Thank you for the licence. As I was going to point out, you did attach too little significance to Zara's words, thought them mere piffle of the kind for sale in necromancers' tents. There is enough of that, God knows, but do not lose sight of the fact that at all times and in all walks of life there have existed persons having the gift of prophecy. Who knows but Zara has?"
  • 80. Bertha was now rigid with attention. She had moved knee from knee; her feet were set firmly on the carpet, while the upper part of her body straightened out. "I don't follow," she said almost pleadingly. "Let me explain," continued Franz. "You and I and the vast majority of people can look into the past—a certain curvature of our brain facilitating the privilege. Another similar or dissimilar set of brain-cells, or a single curvature, might lift for us the veil that now obscures the future." "The future?" gasped Bertha. "Indeed, the future; and, practically considered, there is nothing so very extraordinary about it, for what will happen to-morrow, or the day after to-morrow, is in the making now. If, for instance, the Krupp works were going into bankruptcy a year hence, the unfavourable conditions that constitute the menace to our prosperity would be at their destructive work now. Do you follow?" added Franz. "I think I do," said Bertha. "Hence I say the gift of prophecy presupposes a correct interpretation of the past and present as well as the peculiar gift of extraordinary brain development—a rare gift, so sparsely distributed that in olden times prophets were credited with interpreting the will of the Almighty." "Franz," cried Bertha, her face pallid and drawn, her hands twitching. "Oh, my God!" she screamed, as if nerve-shattered by an awful thought suddenly burst upon her; "you don't believe—no, you can't——! Tell me that you do not think it was God's voice speaking
  • 81. through Zara?" And, as if to shut out some horrible vision, the Girl- Queen of Guns covered her face with both hands. "It is not for me to pronounce on things I don't know," replied Franz. "Judged by what you have told me, Zara suited her prophecy for the most part to facts and to existing tendencies, conditions and ambitions on the part of political parties and high personages." "She called me the coming arch-murderess of the age, insisted that the warrior-queens of past times, even the most heartless and most cruel, had been but amateurs compared with me in taking human lives—— Oh, Franz, tell me it is not true! She was romancing, was she not? She lied to frighten me and to get a big trinkgeld." "I wish it were so," said Franz earnestly; "but, unfortunately, she had a clear insight into the future as it may develop, unless you call a halt to incessant, ever-increasing, ever-new war preparations." Many years ago I read a manuscript play by a Dutch author, in the opening scenes of which a Jew tried to sell another Jew a bill of goods. Shylock number two wanted the stuff badly, but calculated that by a show of indifference he might obtain them for a halfpenny less. On his part, Isaac was as eager to sell as the other was to buy, but the threatened impairment of his fortune called for strategy. So he feigned that he did not care a rap whether the goods changed hands or not, and the two shysters remained together a whole long act engaging in a variety of business that had nought to do with the original proposition, each, however, watching for opportunity to re- introduce it, now as a threat, again as a bait, and the third and seventh and tenth time in jest. So Bertha, having once disposed of the war preparation bogey, according to Uncle Majesty's suggestion,
  • 82. now returned to it in slightly different form. She was determined to discount Zara's prophecies at any cost. Getting ready to fight was tantamount to backing down; spending billions for guns and ammunition and chemicals and fortifications and espionage and war scares and whatnots was mere pretext for keeping the pot boiling in the workman's cottage, and the golden eagles rolling in the financier's cash drawer, and so on ad infinitum. When Bertha had finished she thought Zara's prophecies very poor stuff. Franz came in for the full quota of that sort of argument out of a bad conscience so warped by hypocrisy. Our Lady of the Guns no doubt believed every word she said, or rather repeated—dear woman's way! She always firmly trusts in what suits her, logic, proof to the contrary, stubborn facts notwithstanding. Instinct or intuition, she calls it. "That is no way to dispose of so grave a subject," said Franz. "But what can I do?" "Prevent more wholesale family disintegration, forestall future mass-murder, future dunging of the earth with blood and human bones." Franz put both hands on the girl's shoulders. "Bertha," he said impressively, "make up your mind not to sign any more death- warrants, stop making merchandise intended to rob millions of life and limb and healthy minds, while those coming after them are destined physical or moral cripples that one man's ambition may thrive." "Shut down the works, you mean?" cried Bertha; and, womanlike, indulged once more the soothing music of self-
  • 83. deception: "It would ruin the Ruhr Valley, throw a hundred thousand and more out of work; and what could they do, being skilled only in the industries created by my father and grandfather? "Papa, Uncle Alfred, the first Krupp—God bless their souls!— were they founders of murder-factories, as you suggest? No, a thousand times no. Their skill, their genius, their enterprise has been the admiration of the world. Everybody admits that they were men animated by the highest motives and principles. They made Germany." "I don't deny it; I underline every word you have said, Bertha. The foundations for Germany's greatness were laid within a stone's throw of this window; much of her supremacy in politics and economics was conceived between these four walls. But now that the goal is achieved, that the Fatherland enjoys unprecedented wealth and prosperity—let well enough alone." "You talk as if I were the War Lord!" cried Bertha. "You are his right hand: the War Lady." "He is my guardian, my master." "Only for a while. You don't have to submit to his dictation when of age." Carried away by emotion, Franz had spoken harshly at times, but now his tone became coaxing. "When you come into your own, promise me, Bertha, to accept no more orders for armament and arms of any kind. Dedicate the greatest steel plant of the world to enterprises connected with progress, with the advancement of the human race! Build railways, Eiffel towers for observation, machinery of all sorts, ploughs and
  • 84. other agricultural implements, but for God's sake taboo once and for all preparations for murder and destruction!" Bertha covered her ears. "Don't use such words; they are uncalled for, inappropriate." Then, with a woman's ill-logic, she repeated the last. "'Destruction'—you don't take into consideration what your 'destructive' factors have done for my people, what they are doing for humanity right along. Auntie Majesty thinks our charities and social work superior to Rockefeller's, and God forbid that I ever stop or curtail them." "Yes! Think of your charities," said Franz; "take the Hackenberg case. What is he—a soldier blasted and crippled in mind and body by the war of 1870. Essen's industry made a wreck of Heinrich, and he costs you one mark a day to keep for the rest of his life; three hundred and sixty-five marks per year, paid so many decades, what percentage of your father's profits in the war of 1870-71 does the sum total represent?" "A fraction of a thousandth per cent., perhaps. Another fraction pays for the son Johann's keep, another for that of the two younger boys, another for Gretchen, etc., etc." "But if there had been no war, Heinrich would not have been disabled, and consequently would not have burdened charity with human wreckage! Do you see my point?" "Go on," said Bertha. "Because you are used to it, maybe the Hackenberg case does not particularly impress you. You were not born when Heinrich sallied forth in the name of patriotism. But reflect: there are thousands of charitable institutions like yours, not so richly endowed, not so splendid to look upon, but charnel-houses for Essen war
  • 85. victims just the same. And all filled to overflowing—even as the Krupp treasury is. Yet that Franco-German war, that made the Krupps and necessitated the asylums and hospitals, was Lilliputian compared with the Goliath war now in the making—partly thanks to you, Bertha." "But I have told you time and again there will be no war, that I have the highest authority for saying so!" cried Bertha angrily. "Authority," mocked Franz. "The French of 1870 had the no-war 'authority' of Napoleon III., the Germans that of William I., before the edict went forth to kill, to maim, to destroy, to strew the earth with corpses and fill the air with lamentations! So it will be this month, this year, next year—for history ever repeats itself—until the hour for aggression, which will be miscalled a defence of our holiest principles and interests, has struck. "The air pressure has increased," continued Franz, parting the window curtains; "see the lowering clouds! And watch the storm coming up, lashing them in all directions. West and east they are spreading, and, look, north too! They are falling on Northern France, on the Lowlands and Russia like a black pall." "You prophesy a universal war?" shrieked Bertha. "The answer is in your ledger. For thirty and more years your firm has been arming the universe. Since your father's death you have distributed armaments on a vaster scale than ever, and now, I understand, the pace that killeth is to be still more increased. "When you have furnished Germany with all the guns, the ammunition, the chemicals, the flying machines, the cruisers, the submarines, the hand grenades—what then? Presto! a pretext of the
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