Exld542 presentation1 version 2 08052013 v7
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This document discusses scenario planning and its use as a strategic tool for managing uncertainty about the future. It defines scenarios as stories about alternative futures that can help organizations make better decisions. The document outlines several scenario planning methodologies and tools, including those developed by Schwartz, Hammond, and Curry. It also provides examples of companies that use scenario planning and discusses how scenarios can be created and applied to different business situations. The overall message is that scenario planning allows organizations to better prepare for an uncertain future by challenging assumptions and considering different potential pathways.
Exld542 presentation1 version 2 08052013 v7
- 1. Scenario planning for success – the art of the long view Jonathon Hagger Gareth Houghting
- 2. • to discuss the use of scenarios, • to describe three scenario tools, • to apply those tools to a scenario, • to develop an understanding of scenarios The purpose of this presentation is -
- 3. Meet the minds behind scenarios Curry Hammond Schwartz Schwartz P., The art of the long view Hammond A., Which world? Scenarios for the 21st century Curry A., Acting on the future
- 4. “While the future is uncertain and much of it is beyond our control, we can control many aspects of it. We choose our future: we create it by what we do or fail to do.” Wendy Schultz, “Defining Futures Fluency” http://www.infinitefutures.com/essays/ff/ChFiveView.pdf
- 5. Jeremy Bentham on scenario planning for crucial choices in uncertain times http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=tzlnB_MszyM&NR=1
- 6. What are Scenarios ? “A tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decision might be played out right” (Schwartz, 1991)
- 7. Scenarios are about -
- 11. What are Scenarios? “That part of strategic planning which relates to the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future” (Ringland, 1998)
- 12. Scenarios are not about
- 14. Choosing a preferred or desired future,
- 16. Scenarios ARE about making better decisions with a desired future in mind.
- 17. We propose that “Scenarios allow better preparation for the future, through enabling the effective consideration of uncertainties through challenging individuals’ assumptions, values and beliefs. As we strategize today, we prepare for tomorrow.” Hagger & Houghting 2013
- 18. Articulate and isolate key decisions Conduct in-depth research Look closely at the driving forces Rehearse the implications Schwartz’s methodology
- 19. Scenarios are used by Shell Oil http://www.shell.com/global/future-energy/scenarios.html Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) http://ccs.mit.edu/21c/21CWP001.html#3 AutoNation http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/03/scenario-planning-advice-leadership-managing-planning.html Oracle http://docs.oracle.com/cd/E18727_01/doc.121/e12277/T515640T515644.htm
- 20. Demystifying Scenario Terminology Plain English Schwartz Hammond Status quo Official Future Market World Change for the worse Depression Fortress World Change for the better Transformative Transformed World
- 21. Curry vs Schwartz! Some similarities with Schwartz but a number of significant differences Focuses on defining the “system under scrutiny” leading to the eventual decision Less focus on planning, more consideration on causal or systems approaches Wide engagement with employees and stakeholders is vital giving greater depth in decision making
- 22. Typical scenarios process (Curry) © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision Scanning Understanding landscape Strategizing Visioning, priorities & future planning Approx 50 drivers ident- ified Axes Develop- ment Draft Scenarios developed An iterative process Scenario testing 20 drivers prioritised and tested
- 23. © HenleyCentreHeadlightVision Actions that are needed whatever the scenario (Imperatives) Involves assessing actions against capabilities and competencies, identifying opportunities and reviewing risks Drivers of change Scenarios Strategic implications Ideas for future strategy & action Actions needed to reach a preferred future outcome (Preferences) From scenarios to strategy
- 24. Limitations of scenario planning http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7b0cLn-wHU
- 25. Now its your turn You own a business that manufactures small arms. You will split into three groups, and each compile a future scenario. We will then discuss the long term viability of the company in each possible future world. Report back what you find
- 28. “Scenarios allow better preparation for the future, through enabling the effective consideration of uncertainties through challenging individuals’ assumptions, values and beliefs. As we strategize today, we prepare for tomorrow.” Hagger & Houghting 2013
- 29. So HOW DO we use scenarios?
- 30. Create plays,
- 32. Plan ahead
- 33. In closing Scenarios are “…tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future” (Ringland, 1998)
- 34. The importance of scenario planning to sustained success http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhoXFVQsIxw
- 35. More resources Introduction to Scenario Planning Video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVgxZnRT54E Scenario Thinking http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page Andrew Currys blog http://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/
- 36. Schwartz, P. (1996). The art of the long view: Planning for the future in an uncertain world. New York: Currency Doubleday. Pp. xii-xvi & 3-28. Hammond, A. (1998). Which world? Scenarios for the 21st century: Global destinies, regional choices. Washington, DC: Island Press. (13-25). Curry, A. (2007). Acting on the future. In B. Sharpe & K, van der Heijden (Eds). Scenarios for success: Turning insight into action. Chichester, England: John Wiley. (pp. 339-371). References
Editor's Notes
- #3: Perhaps add,Review papers by Hammond .. … …Discuss problems/contradictions to Scenario planning (Lindgren P297)
- #4: We will be using the writings of Schwartz, Hammond and Curry to guide us in preparing some scenarios, and to strategize for each scenario, or possible future.
- #5: The USAF started using scenarios after WW2, the Air Force tried to imagine what opponents might do. In the 60’s, Scenarios were refined for business use. Today it is used by some of the world’s largest businesses and government institutions. Some individuals also use scenarios to personal personal decisions.
- #7: “An internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be” (Porter, 1985)
- #11: Not sure about this one. We will have to word it carefully, scenarios are not about predicting the future, or creating vision, or a preferred future.
- #12: “A disciplined method for imaging possible futures in which organizational decisions may be played out” (Shoemaker, 1995)
- #18: I LOVE THE QUOTE!!! That’s some genius right there!!!
- #19: Articulate and isolate key decisionsWhat factors are most relevant to your situation?Consider the timing - 5 years, 10 years and beyondConduct in-depth researchLook in unusual places for possible trends
- #21: Hammonds 3 frameworks for looking at the world:Market world. A world in which current patterns continueFortress world. Reflects fundamental, but undesirable social change. (Widening gap between rich & poor. Poverty, crime etc)Transformed world.Reflects fundamental and desirable social changeAccording to Schwatrz three types of scenario or worlds normally arise –1) Official Future. When mainstream assumptions turn out to be correct;2) Depression. A tool for thinking about surviving in hard times;3) Transformative Economy.Quality of life, not quality of goods would be emphasized.
- #22: Has similarities with the drivers led, process based approach of Schwartz, but has significant differences that give space for greater interpretive reflection.The initial scenarios question is not about the ‘decision’ that is to be made, but instead it acts to define the “system under scrutiny” that will contain the eventual decision. So Curry’s view is not so focussed on planning, but on causal or systems approaches.Curry believes workshops should be attended by people from across the organisation and/or the stakeholder network, so they are likely to have a broad range of views, and not just decision makers.He believes this difference represents a clear contrast in how change occurs in organisations.
- #23: Time is limited, so choose a few drivers.
- #24: Which Drivers will have the most impact on the system under scrutiny? (Positive or Negative impact) NB to discus these at beginning of session…
- #29: I LOVE THE QUOTE!!! That’s some genius right there!!!
- #30: Does this make sense as a stand alone quote? Does it need referencing or is there another quote that is of more value?
- #34: “A disciplined method for imaging possible futures in which organizational decisions may be played out” (Shoemaker, 1995)