Exponential Age

Editor's Notes

• #5: From 50K a GB to $10 a GB
• #11: With Exponential Changes Cost Decreases Size Decreases Performance Increases Time compresses With Exponential Changes Cost Decreases Size Decreases Performance Increases Time compresses Few people fail to recognize the incredible progress of technology over the past few decades, in particular computing, but comparatively few reflect on the broader impacts of this trend. Vernon Vinge and Ray Kurzweil have predicted that technological advancement will be happening so fast we will struggle to comprehend it The inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil has postulated that at some point in the future, a technological 'singularity' will occur,. This is the point at which technological progress, if plotted on a graph, essentially becomes a vertical line. Ray Kurzweil, 'The Singularity is Near' Of course this might never happen, or not for thousands of years. There could be some fundamental problem in mapping the network of neurons into a computer, or there could be some currently unknown, unique element to our brains that cannot be replicated in a machine, or we may simply end up destroying ourselves before computers can become powerful enough (more likely than you think...) But even if it is possible, the estimated time of the technological singularity varies. Ray Kurzweil puts the year as 2045, others put it earlier and some later. Personally, I think Kurzweil has it about right (although I am a little skeptical that the singularity will actually happen). Even if there are major problems in creating the software of the human brain, the hardware should be more than good enough by that time.
• #16: With Exponential Changes Cost Decreases Size Decreases Performance Increases Time compresses With Exponential Changes Cost Decreases Size Decreases Performance Increases Time compresses Few people fail to recognize the incredible progress of technology over the past few decades, in particular computing, but comparatively few reflect on the broader impacts of this trend. Vernon Vinge and Ray Kurzweil have predicted that technological advancement will be happening so fast we will struggle to comprehend it The inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil has postulated that at some point in the future, a technological 'singularity' will occur,. This is the point at which technological progress, if plotted on a graph, essentially becomes a vertical line. Ray Kurzweil, 'The Singularity is Near' Of course this might never happen, or not for thousands of years. There could be some fundamental problem in mapping the network of neurons into a computer, or there could be some currently unknown, unique element to our brains that cannot be replicated in a machine, or we may simply end up destroying ourselves before computers can become powerful enough (more likely than you think...) But even if it is possible, the estimated time of the technological singularity varies. Ray Kurzweil puts the year as 2045, others put it earlier and some later. Personally, I think Kurzweil has it about right (although I am a little skeptical that the singularity will actually happen). Even if there are major problems in creating the software of the human brain, the hardware should be more than good enough by that time.
• #17: 3 Billion people will be reachable Online commerce will overtake the physical world “Middle-men” will add value or be eliminated Peer-to-Peer for lending, funding, and ? will increase in important Slow to adapt legacy infrastructure will be replaced Virtual Currency will be increasingly important Banking will evolve to be more wholesale and platform. Financial services will be provided by a many types of actors.