Formulate stronger hypotheses
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The document emphasizes the importance of formulating strong hypotheses for effective abductive design research, detailing the need for clear, testable relationships based on sound assumptions. It offers a step-by-step framework for hypothesis development and highlights the pitfalls of poor hypotheses, which can misguide design efforts and fail to address user needs. Ultimately, the focus is on using structured research methods to validate or invalidate assumptions, ensuring designs meet both business goals and audience expectations.
![WHO IS THE AUDIENCE? WHAT ARE THE PROBLEMS? WHAT IS THE BEST SOLUTION?
GENERATIVE RESEARCH
EVALUATIVE RESEARCH
Different ways to write hypotheses
“Ask the right questions
to get insights that lead to the
right solutions“
We believe that [this people are
a potential (new) audience]
because of [this reason]
We believe that [this audience
will behave this way] because of
[this reason]
We believe that [this audience
with these goals] have [this job
to be done]
We believe that [this audience have this
problem achieving this goal] because of
[this reason]
We believe that [this audience have this
pain/frustration] leading to [this
consequence]
We believe that [this audience using
this solution] will results in [this
outcome]
We believe that [this solution] will
results in [this change in the audience
mental model/behaviour]
If we provide [this solution] then [this
audience will be able to achieve this
outcome] leading to [this improvement]
If [this solution the best solution for the
audience to achieve this outcome] then
[we will see this improvement]](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/formulatestrongerhypothesescopy-160319220621/85/Formulate-stronger-hypotheses-11-320.jpg)
Formulate stronger hypotheses
- 1. FORMULATE STRONGER HYPOTHESES FOR A MORE EFFECTIVE ABDUCTIVE DESING RESEARCH Photo credit: Andrew Filer Carmen Brion @Tea_monster UX Camp Brighton 2016
- 2. ❖ Hypotheses come from the best information available ❖ Often need an educated guess based on some evidence Abductive reasoning ✴ starts with an incomplete set of observations ✴ proceeds to the likeliest possible explanation Why Abductive Design Research?
- 3. Multidisciplinary design teams and stakeholders ❖ align on the problem space and its level of complexity ❖ separate assumptions from facts ❖ prioritise and select assumptions to validate Hypotheses make design research ✴ more targeted ✴ collaborative Hypotheses guide design teams
- 4. Where these hypotheses fit within the design framework? UnderstandObserve Define Ideate Prototype/MVP DISCOVER DEFINE PROBLEM DEFINITION DEVELOP IM PLEM ENT Re-define Test THINK MAKE CHECK LEARN LEAN UX DESING THINKING Validate/Invalidate/Reframe Hypotheses Hypotheses 2 1
- 5. ❖ Lead to aimless research ❖ Makes it hard to validate assumptions ❖ Give teams a false sense of going in the right direction ❖ Designs don’t solve problems for the business or the customer Bad hypotheses lead to aimless design Photo credit: Quinn Dombrowski ✴ Hypotheses are tricky to formulate ✴ Poor hypotheses are as bad or worse than no hypotheses
- 6. Formulating sound hypotheses: purposeful abductive design research We need to go back to the scientific method Photo credit: Lefteris Heretakis
- 7. ❖ It is simple and unambiguous ❖ Has an independent variable and a dependent variable ❖ States a clear relationship between these two variables, based on some evidence ❖ It is testable, measurable, falsifiable and positive Photo credit: Gerry Lauzon What makes a hypothesis sound?
- 8. Photo credit: Markus Spiske Adductive Design Research Framework 1. DEFINE ASSUMPTIONS 2. DEFINE THE PROBLEMS TO SOLVE 3. FORMULATE THE HYPOTHESES 4. DEFINE THE RESEARCH TO ASSESS THE HYPOTHESIS 5. RUN THE RESEARCH 6. ASSESS THE RESULTS OF THE RESEARCH
- 9. WHO IS THE AUDIENCE? WHAT ARE THE PROBLEMS? WHAT IS THE BEST SOLUTION? GENERATIVE RESEARCH EVALUATIVE RESEARCH Worth considering when formulating a hypothesis “Find the root cause, don’t just put a plaster over the symptoms” • Impact of the solution to the business? • Will the audience use/pay for this solution? • Is there a sustainable market for this solution? • Who is the audience? • Job to be done by the audience? • Potential new segments? • What are their behaviours? • What are the business problems? • What does the business aim to achieve with the new solution? • Audience problems? • Audience pains and frustrations? • Do solutions solve the problems? • How solutions fit with the audience mental models? • How does the solution meet the business goals? • How is the solution working? • Impact to the audience? • Which solution is better?
- 10. Photo credit: Markus Spiske Formulating hypotheses is tricky ➡ This is not a hypothesis. It is just a description of a design feature. If we offer pagination to online shoppers then they will have more items to explore Bad hypothesis If pagination is a more efficient way to find items then online shoppers will find items quicker using pagination than using infinite scrolling Good hypothesis ➡ A way to formulate a hypothesis for this design feature. Ask why having items to explore it is important to users.
- 11. WHO IS THE AUDIENCE? WHAT ARE THE PROBLEMS? WHAT IS THE BEST SOLUTION? GENERATIVE RESEARCH EVALUATIVE RESEARCH Different ways to write hypotheses “Ask the right questions to get insights that lead to the right solutions“ We believe that [this people are a potential (new) audience] because of [this reason] We believe that [this audience will behave this way] because of [this reason] We believe that [this audience with these goals] have [this job to be done] We believe that [this audience have this problem achieving this goal] because of [this reason] We believe that [this audience have this pain/frustration] leading to [this consequence] We believe that [this audience using this solution] will results in [this outcome] We believe that [this solution] will results in [this change in the audience mental model/behaviour] If we provide [this solution] then [this audience will be able to achieve this outcome] leading to [this improvement] If [this solution the best solution for the audience to achieve this outcome] then [we will see this improvement]
- 12. References The Real Lean Startup Book http://www.trikro.com/downloads/playbook Hypotheses-led design ❖ https://medium.com/@mwambach1/hypotheses-driven-ux- design-c75fbf3ce7cc#.d7rhwimep ❖ https://www.thoughtworks.com/insights/blog/how-implement- hypothesis-driven-development ❖ http://www.slideshare.net/inusese/cindy-alvarez-embracing- hypothesis-driven-design Scientific hypotheses ❖ http://www.wikihow.com/Write-a-Hypothesis
- 13. For listening :) “Few ideas work on the first try. Iteration is key to innovation” ― Sebastian Thrun Photo credit: Paul Downey