FTTH @ last
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The document discusses the evolution and importance of fiber optic technology in telecommunications, emphasizing its benefits including reduced costs and improved bandwidth. It critiques the industry's resistance to adopting new technologies and models, suggesting that sustainability and future advancements hinge on leveraging such innovations. The author calls for a shift in thinking to embrace new services and connectivity solutions that align with modern demands.
FTTH @ last
- 1. FTTH @ Last ? Peter Cochrane cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Friday, 13 January 12
- 2. The debate has lasted a long long time... Friday, 13 January 12
- 3. What we know for sure! Friday, 13 January 12
- 4. There are no silver bullets! Friday, 13 January 12
- 5. No killer apps! Friday, 13 January 12
- 6. No ‘one’ topology or ‘one’ technology ! Friday, 13 January 12
- 7. There are no mysteries either - we have known sufficient for decades to make the right choices ! Friday, 13 January 12
- 8. Decades of operating experience, roll outs, studies, and engineering give us 20:20 vision ! Friday, 13 January 12
- 9. Long lines optical fibre •Revolutionised telecoms •Sidelined microwave radio •Sidelined satellites •Enabled the internet •Reduced manpower > 80% •Reduced faults > 99% •Increased capacity > 106 •Vastly reduced costs •Vastly improved profit margins Friday, 13 January 12
- 10. Local loop optical fibre • Technically viable 1984 • Economically viable 1986 • In manufacture 1990 • Far East roll out ~1993 • UK roll out ~1991 • UK cancellation 1991 Friday, 13 January 12
- 11. What was on offer • Reduced switch sites >90% • Reduced staffing > 70% • Reduced truck rolls > 95% • Infinite bandwidth • Endless upgradability • Remote programability • Customer autonomy • Vastly reduced costs • Vastly improved profit margin • New business opportunities Friday, 13 January 12
- 12. How big an investment? In 1992 - for an EU Telco only 3 - 5 years of profit ! Friday, 13 January 12
- 13. What went wrong ? •Vested interests •Limited thinking •A lack of real understanding - technology - economics - customers - markets •The false promise of copper •An inability to change Friday, 13 January 12
- 14. ...and a string of really dumb questions followed... Why would anyone want :- • 64kbit/s • 256kbit/s • 1Mbit/s • 10Mbit/s • 100Mbit/s • 1000Mbit/s ...and what would they use it for ? Friday, 13 January 12
- 15. Can you imagine.... Why do you want to travel at:- • 20km/h • 40km/h • 60km/h • 80km/h • 100km/h • 120km/h ...and what are you going to use this car for ? Friday, 13 January 12
- 16. And the specification.... Up to 100 km/l Depends on driving conditions, a strong tail wind, and long downhill slope Friday, 13 January 12
- 17. It is as if an industry chose to ignore all e v i d e n c e , m a r ke t pressure, customer demand, IT progress & the next industrial revolution... Friday, 13 January 12
- 18. So perhaps we should be looking at the bigger picture... Friday, 13 January 12
- 19. Sustainability cannot be realised with old technologies and old industry models... Friday, 13 January 12
- 20. Changing all the light bulbs and tinkering at the edges won’t cure this problem.. Friday, 13 January 12
- 21. We have to stop doing things like this and find planet (and people) friendly alternatives... Friday, 13 January 12
- 22. Underused video conference is a sign of the lack of network bandwidth and connectivity... ...it does not signify a lack of need, demand, or suitable technology ! Friday, 13 January 12
- 23. Home, remote, and working on the move are obvious winners too... ...but only if you can get the bandwidth and connectivity you need... Friday, 13 January 12
- 24. But there is widespread frustration at the extremely low bandwidth and poor connectivity available today ... Friday, 13 January 12
- 25. It undermines and prevents the widespread use of the latest technologies... Friday, 13 January 12
- 26. < 7 % of internet ready TV sets can gain access at sufficient speed to be useable... Friday, 13 January 12
- 27. I collected these Global average test results over the past year as I travelled the planet... Global average Friday, 13 January 12
- 28. d !! I collected these o rl w ic Global average test results over e tr m the past year as I sy m a travelled the an planet... n ot is t IT B u Global average Friday, 13 January 12
- 29. Bandwidth & connectivity present the ultimate road block to our progress... Friday, 13 January 12
- 30. Our future and that of the planet lies in the hands of new technologies and new models for industry and society... Friday, 13 January 12
- 31. I only have time to illustrate this with a few samples of some of the biggest changes on the horizon.... Friday, 13 January 12
- 32. It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot.... ...and the next industrial revolution Nano Bio IT + AI Friday, 13 January 12
- 33. It all hinges on the the next tech hot spot.... ...and the next industrial revolution Nano Bio IT + AI This is where all the real action is going to be Friday, 13 January 12
- 34. Moving on from bulk materials and the destruction of resources... ...3D printing is going mainstream in industry... and soon it will be in every office and home Friday, 13 January 12
- 35. It is revolutionising the way we think of design & production... ...enabling new ways to realize c o m p l e x s t r u c t u re s , a n d integrated components... Friday, 13 January 12
- 36. In the extreme it will change everything... ...and we have to think in terms of shipping designs and not goods... Friday, 13 January 12
- 37. Hardware Access OPEN Networks Software Friday, 13 January 12
- 38. Hardware Access OPEN Networks Software Friday, 13 January 12
- 39. Hardware ig n D es t Access en lo pm D e ve OPEN on bu ti Networks i st ri on D a ti n ov In Software Friday, 13 January 12
- 40. Bridging the organic and the biological to create new materials and capabilities... Friday, 13 January 12
- 41. Programming materials to form 3D objects of predefined shape & function... Friday, 13 January 12
- 42. Sensors and decoding the genome in minutes will change medicine and care... ...whilst the decoding the protein will lead to a new chapter for the human race... Friday, 13 January 12
- 43. We can now manipulate individual atoms and program cell by cell... Friday, 13 January 12
- 44. And our machines are designing machines... Friday, 13 January 12
- 45. And our machines are designing machines... Friday, 13 January 12
- 46. Still at an infantile stage - part magic - part reality... Friday, 13 January 12
- 47. AI for the professions and the masses via The Cloud... Friday, 13 January 12
- 48. And there is so much more... • Social nets use GPS to go real • Machine to machine + robotics • Telepresence for maintenance • Logistics and RFID + tracking • Vehicle and people tracking • Appliance and device tracking • Dynamic energy management • Interactive books & newspapers • Interactive media • The death of radio,TV, print +++ Friday, 13 January 12
- 49. Huh ! Run that past me one more time: The e c o n o m i c c a s e fo r FTTH is unproven ?? Friday, 13 January 12
- 50. No one is seeing or forecasting a downturn in net traffic... Friday, 13 January 12
- 51. The ‘potential’ gap is huge for new services and new applications... Friday, 13 January 12
- 52. New thinking is required, but there are exemplar companies and countries from which to learn... • Japan • Korea • China • Scandinavia • ++++ • Jersey (Channel Islands Friday, 13 January 12
- 53. The biggest challenges facing the netco industry ? • History • Old mindsets • Old models • Existing operations • Vested interests • Change Friday, 13 January 12
- 54. The most recent net/ telco transformation... • 1Gbit/s bi-directional • 100% ducted - no overhead • WiFi + 3G in every terminal • Fibre to every company completed • FTTH roll out underway Friday, 13 January 12
- 55. A few specifics... • Fibre roll from periphery to core • Address high net worths first • Small housing clusters next • Encourage self install • Encourage community action • 100% Ethernet • 1 NGN for fixed & mobile • Point to point fibre • Office grade equipment • Mobile only - SIP on demand • PSTN + MPLS Closure Friday, 13 January 12
- 56. Customer access... • Open access 3G • Open access WiFi • Upgrade to 4/5G later • Guard the fibre connection • Leave all RG45 access open • Get customers to wire their own Friday, 13 January 12
- 57. The island-wide vision... • FTTH & Office @ 1Gbit/s • Hybrid wireless where necessary •Seamless wireless access everywhere • Open to all users on all devices • 3G @ 14Mbit/s • 4G, 5G when available • WiFi @ > 50Mbit/s • WiMax as required Friday, 13 January 12
- 58. And migrate the business model into new services... Friday, 13 January 12
- 59. And what of the future, what’s over the horizon for the industry... ...is there more? Friday, 13 January 12
- 60. And what of the future, what’s over the horizon for the industry... ...is there more? Friday, 13 January 12
- 61. Oh yes , and it demands even more bandwidth and connectivity? Friday, 13 January 12
- 62. Where you are ? Oh yes , and it Where you have been ? Where you are likely to be going to ? demands even Who you have met ? more bandwidth Who you are going to meet ? Who you call ? and connectivity? Who calls you ? Who you TXT - IM - Link ? All your contacts All your urls All you passwords What you are doing now ? What have you done in the past ? What games you play ? What apps you use ? What music you listen to...? What you watch...? What you read...? ++++++++++ Friday, 13 January 12
- 63. And the £, $, € is in the MetaData... Friday, 13 January 12
- 64. ca-global.org cochrane.org.uk Thank You COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s Friday, 13 January 12