Technologies That Will Change Everything
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This document discusses emerging technologies and their potential impacts. It covers topics like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, robotics, cyborgs, smart materials, fusion power, artificial life, malware, biobots, network bots, and more. The document notes that many of these technologies are still in early experimental stages and face challenges before being ready for widespread use. It also discusses debates around AI safety and the relationship between humans and increasingly intelligent machines.
Technologies That Will Change Everything
- 1. Technologies THAT WILL CHANGE everything Professor Peter Cochrane OBE www.petercochrane.com
- 2. W h at ’ s H o t W H AT ’ s N O T 0 -10 10 -20+ Timeframe Years 6 x Prime in 40 mins
- 3. Arti fi cial Life AI Quantum Computing Robotics Cyborgs Smart Materials F U S I O N P O W E R Sustainable reactions remain illusive R&D to date spans over 80 years Still more energy in than out! China's EAST Tokamak 120 M oK for 101s and 160 M oC for 20s Sustained plasma at 70 M oK for 17min 36s Fusion energy requires >150 M°K “It may just be all a matter of scale”?
- 4. E A S Y T O D R A W H A R D T O B U I L D Q = Energy Out Energy In Qt = Electrical Energy Out Total Energy In Qp = Thermal Energy Out Plasma Energy In Used for the sales pitch & all scienti fi c comparisons Energy
- 5. A N E R R O R I N Acc o u n t i n g ? E ffi ciency Q = Energy Out Energy In Qt << 0.1 x Qp The world record e ffi ciency Qp = 70% but the Qt << 7% - Ouch! Qt = Electrical Energy Out Total Energy In Qp = Thermal Energy Out Plasma Energy In Used for the all scienti fi c comparisons !
- 6. C O L D F U S I O N C O S T I N G Z I P From professionals to inventors & cranks in sheds - all failed and raised false hopes in 1970s - 90s
- 7. D O n ’ t H o l d y o u r b r e at h Fusion power looks to be a real a long shot and may just remain a dream for another lifetime!
- 8. Apes many features of real life Q U A N T U M C O M P U T I N G A n a l o g u e n o t D i g i t a l Proba bali stic not deter ministic ’ N ’ Re s u l t s n o t a s i n g u l a r o u t c o m e Q u a n t u m N o i s e t h e s i n g l e b i g g e s t l i m i t e r
- 9. F A L S E C L A I M S I n s t a n t l y d e c r y p t s C re d i t C a rd s I n s t a n t l y d e c r y p t s B a n k Tra n s f e r s Credit cards use asymmetric encryption algorithms (e.g. RSA), QC completely breaks them in about 15 seconds per card Bank transactions use symmetric algorithms (e.g. 256 AES), Quantum Computing and Grover’s Algorithm only weakens them QDecryption easily defeated by going to 512 to 1024 to 2048…AES RSA sees an exponential rise in compute time AES = Advanced Encryption Standard RSA = Rivest–Shamir–Adleman
- 10. F A L S E C L A I M S W i l l re l a c e ( a l l ) d i g i t a l c o m p u t e r s Mass shippin g in ~5years Fundamentally we face two problem sets: - Linear well suited to Digital Computing - Non-Linear well suited to Quantum Computing And Quantum Results have to be reverse computed digitally in order to locate the correct answer out of the many produced! SO = You will not be saying goodbye to your PC or Mainframe - and you will not be seeing a QC in your o ffi ce anytime soon!
- 11. OB SER VAT ION IIT 2017 Why do we need Quantum Computing in the fi rst place ? AI IoT Nets Mobile Trading Conflict Robotics Genetics Medicine Climatics Economics Proteomics Environment +++++++++ From the sociology of people to the sociology of things! The universe &everything in it is fundamentally non-linear
- 12. OB SER VAT ION IIT 2017 Why do we need Quantum Computing in the fi rst place ? AI IoT Nets Mobile Trading Conflict Robotics Genetics Medicine Climatics Economics Proteomics Environment +++++++++ There is no general understanding of non-linear systems: no general theor y, mathematics or models It is way beyond our intellect/intuition and guessing - it is also increasingly r isky - we need mac hine help From the sociology of people to the sociology of things! Averages , tell us nothing; trends are transient; and we have to think in terms of emergent behaviour s The universe &everything in it is fundamentally non-linear
- 13. OB SER VAT ION IIT 2017 Why do we need Quantum Computing in the fi rst place ? AI IoT Nets Mobile Trading Conflict Robotics Genetics Medicine Climatics Economics Proteomics Environment +++++++++ There is no general understanding of non-linear systems: no general theor y, mathematics or models It is way beyond our intellect/intuition and guessing - it is also increasingly r isky - we need mac hine help From the sociology of people to the sociology of things! Averages , tell us nothing; trends are transient; and we have to think in terms of emergent behaviour s The universe &everything in it is fundamentally non-linear We a r e i n a n e w p h a s e o f s y s t e m design & release sans any sure knowledge of what they will do, a n d w h a t o u t c o m e s might occur… E m b r a c i n g A I a n d mac hine modelling is now imperative as is Quantum Computing
- 14. S T A T U S Q U O R e a l i t y c h e c k : p r o b l e m s - Qu Bits using atoms, e lectrons, phot ons?? - C h o i c e o f s u b s t r a t e r e m a i n s u n d e c i d e d - A rch itecture /physica l c onfiguration still TBD! - Operating tempe rat ure s ext remely low <0.01K - Cooling plant ve ry big and operat ing costs high - Qu Bit Noise is far too high for st able computation - Qu Bit Conc atena tion e xponentially limited by noise - S y s t e m s s t i l l c o n d i t i o n a l l y u n s t a b l e a n d u n r e l i a b l e - Qu Bit count record cu rrently 127 by IBM: we need >1k Developments are nowhere n ear st ab l e: mo st o f t h e tech is still very much in th e exper i men tal stag e:
- 15. R E A D Y T O S H I P ? R e a l i s t i c p r o j e c t i o n s a r e h a r d “Current QCs are not yet powerful enough to tackle problems that can’t be performed by traditional computers” “We still don’t know the ‘magic number’ of Qubits that will make QCs supremely useful in the real world” December 2022 C o m m e r c i a l P r o d u c t s : G o v & C o r p s > 2 0 3 0 L a r g e C o m p s > 2 0 3 5 / 4 0 E D U / S M E s > 2 0 4 0 / 5 0 D o m e s t i c > 2 0 5 0
- 16. a r t i f i c i a l L i f e ( A L ) Apes many features of real life - Tends to create order - ie negative entropy - Achieves some level of sustainability - Evolves without or with human help - Solves problems in new ways - Interacts with environments - Mostly acts autonomously - Replicates or reproduces
- 17. a r t i f i c i a l L i f e ( A L ) Aping life, or not, A-Life solves problems in new ways “Life always fi nds a way, it breaks free, it expands to new territories, and crashes through barriers painfully, maybe even dangerously” Successes So Far - Software - Mini-Bots - Biological - Bio-Bots - Nano-Bots - Nanological - Network-Bots - Hybrid-Combos Je ff Goldblum (Alias Dr. Ian Malcolm. Jurassic Park 22 Jun 2017
- 18. R A P I D M A L W A R E S p e c i a t i o n A r t i f i c i a l L i f e B r e e d i n g M a l w a r e
- 19. R A P I D M A L W A R E S p e c i a t i o n A r t i f i c i a l L i f e B r e e d i n g M a l w a r e We had this capability 30 years ago but neglected to develop it ! The Dark Side embraced it and now uses to breed Malware!
- 20. B I O B O T S A N D R E P L I C A T I O N N e v e r o b s e r v e d i n n a t u r e !
- 21. B I O B O T S A N D R E P L I C A T I O N N e v e r o b s e r v e d i n n a t u r e ! O b v i o u s a p p l i c a t i o n s i n m e d i c i n e a n d p r o b a b l y a g o o d p a r t n e r f o r b i o a n d n a n o t e c h . T h e a p p l i c a t i o n p o s s i b i l i t i e s a r e o n l y l i m i t e d b y o u r i m a g i n a t i o n & w h a t e v o l u t i o n d e c i d e s t o d o . T h i s i s o n l y t h e f i r s t s p e c i e s !
- 22. N E T w o r k B O T S T h e T r a v e l l i n g S a l e s m a n P r o b l e m
- 23. N E T w o r k B O T S E m m e r g e n t P r o p e r t i e s ? ? ? Applications in Cyber Security, behavioural analysis, allocating resources, tra ffi c routing, people management +++ extendable to ’n-dimensional’ space…
- 24. A p i n g N AT U R E W e h a v e l e a r n e d a l o t f r o m o b s e r v i n g a n i m a l s f u n g i & p l a n t s E v e r y c a s e h a s v e r y s i m p l e r u l e s t h a t r e s u l t i n c o m p l e x b e h a v i o u r s
- 25. R O B O T S WE, are totally dependent “Robots now produce the bulk of all our goods and have moved into logistics, warehousing and surgery+++ They solve the global problems of people shortages and eradicate poor quality introduce by human operators”
- 26. R O B O T S WE, are totally dependent “Robots now produce the bulk of all our goods and have moved into logistics, warehousing and surgery+++ They solve the global problems of people shortages and eradicate poor quality introduce by human operators”
- 27. T e c h n o l o g y I s n o t E v i l WE, on the other hand…! “Give an intelligent robot a weapon and teach it to hunt down and kill our own kind - now that is a different proposition”
- 30. S o o n t o b e S E N T I E N T A IWe cannot survive without it ! “Already ubiquitous & a critical component of I4.0, Society 5.0, and vital for sustainability” Medicine Industry Transport Logistics Farming Defence Law and Order Pharma Energy Networks Trading Health Services R&D Science Design Judiciary InterNet Commerce eCommerce
- 31. D E b a t e Academic & Futile “ P o l i t i c i a n s a n d p h i l o s o p h e r s c a n discuss till the cows come home, but this is a done deal - the cat is out of the bag and our dependence is total - and there is no going back ” “It is now down to us and what we choose to do - it always is”
- 32. F r o m N a r r o w T O G e n e r a l A I O NTO S E NT I E N CE C o m p u t i n g / I T p r o g r e s s i o n : t a s k s p e c i f i c t o g e n e r a l p u r p o s e - P C ! “ T h e s i n g l e b i g g e s t m i s t a k e t h e A I c o m m u n i t y h a v e m a d e i s t o a s s u m e h u m a n s a s s o m e g o l d s t a n d a r d r e f e r e n c e o f a b i l i t y a n d / o r p e r f o r m a n c e f u n c t i o n ” “ B u i l d i n g a n a r t i f i c i a l h u m a n b r a i n i s a n i n t e r e s t i n g t a r g e t , b u t c r e a t i n g n e w i n t e l l i g e n c e s i s a f a r m o r e i m p o r t a n t / u r g e n t o n e ”
- 33. M e a n i n g l e s s I Q a n d T u r i n g T E S T
- 34. S p e c i a l i s e d S U P E R I O R I T Y “The good news Dave, is that the computer’s passed the Turing Test, but you have failed” GO Poker Chess Complexity Mamagrams Comp Games Protein Folding Medical Diagnosis Composing Music Drawing/Painting Circuit Design Data Analysis Transcription Chip Design ++++ Machine learning and rule creation have overtaken human programming for AI
- 35. C O M M O N E R R O R The attributes of physical dexterity, fl exibility, mobility, communication, intelligence and evolved to meet the speci fi c demands of given environments - many of which we (humans) cannot survive in! Our speci fi c human capabilities and attributes were tuned by evolution to meet the physical opportunities and limitations of surface living on planet earth - not in water, air or space! “Speciated superiority is a nonsense”
- 36. H U M A N I S I N G I N T E R F A C E S Human-AI voice interactions now the norm and getting better by the day!
- 37. D E f a c t o H O M E & O F F I C E Vehicles, Devices, Appliances, Wearables +Apps…et al Ask yourself: - How much AI do I own ? - How many times do I interact with AI every day ? Me: > 20 > 100
- 38. Digital Computing Networking Sensors Sentience Analogue Computing Sensors Sentience Linear Non-Linear Non-Linear Future Cyborgs ? Future Arti fi cial Life? Quantum Computing Bio-Evolution Quantum Bio Computing ? Quantum Bio Computing ? Biological Life Intelligence AI AI Robotics T h e B I G P i c t u r e
- 39. P R O S T H E T I C S A N D I m p l a n t s Could you say no thanks?
- 40. W e a r a b l e s Could you say no thanks? And without you would su ff er and die early
- 41. This would rede fi ne the expression - ‘Always On-Line’ N e t w o r k e d F O R L I F E ?
- 42. L E A D E R S I N T H E F I E L D ?
- 43. C Y B O R G MUTATION Prosthetics Implants Augmentation AI + Nets + Human A hard to resist future of convergence… Wearables BodyNet
- 44. A P A R T I N G H Y P O T H E S I S We posit the following concatenation as the most likely path to sentience: Life => an emergent property of Complexity Complexity & Chaos => the ground state of our non-linear universe Intelligence => an emergent property of Life Sentience => an emergent property of Intelligence Complexity => an emergent property of Chaotic Clustering
- 45. Could you resist, Would you Say no ? Thank you petercochrane.com 1995