Why Robots, AI, AL and Quantum Computing
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Professor Peter Cochrane's lecture discusses the exponential growth of technology, particularly in AI, robotics, and quantum computing, and their vital role in solving complex global challenges like climate change. He emphasizes that existing computational models are inadequate for addressing nonlinear problems and that a combination of advanced technologies is essential for progress. Cochrane warns of the societal and ecological impacts of technological dependency while advocating for innovative approaches to create sustainable solutions.
Why Robots, AI, AL and Quantum Computing
- 1. Why Robots, AI, AL AND Quantum Computing ? Prof Peter Cochrane OBE petercochrane.com Date: 23 Jan 2020 Time: 18.00 - 21.00 PUBLIC LECTURE A154, Lindop Building, CollegeLaneCampus AL109AB
- 2. n e m e s i s o r g e n e s i s “Our technological progress now sees us solving problems and creating things way beyond the abilities furnished by our biology” “It also sees us creating challenges that may threaten our long-term survival and that of all life on the planet” “There is no going back, no reverse gear; our technological dependency is complete - and we have to look in that directions for solutions”
- 3. A X I O M AT I C
- 4. t h e r m o d y n a m i c s This will Understand This Never Adding more and more of these disconnected brains does not improve the situation significantly
- 5. I CE M E LT Our computer models are crude and incomplete but the approximations they give us are alarming! Panicking is a very poor substitute for thinking
- 6. N at u r a l D i s a s t e r s DITTO
- 7. E x t r e m e W e at h e r DITTO
- 8. G lo b a l Wa r m i n g 1990 1940 1980 2020 1.0C 0.6C 0.2C -0.2C -0.6C -1.0C 1362 W/m2 1361 W/m2 1360 W/m2 Solar Irradiance Mean Global Temp Rise
- 9. G lo b a l Wa r m i n g 1990 1940 1980 2020 1.0C 0.6C 0.2C -0.2C -0.6C -1.0C 1362 W/m2 1361 W/m2 1360 W/m2 Solar Irradiance Mean Global Temp Rise irrefutable evidence unclear/dubious solutions
- 10. G lo b a l Wa r m i n g The distribution of change is not homogenous it is clustered with hot and cold regions/spots A very small temperature change can result in a very a big impact on the weather system “The system is fundamentally non- linear and way beyond our math and computing abilities”
- 11. G lo b a l Wa r m i n g The distribution of change is not homogenous it is clustered with hot and cold regions/spots A very small temperature change can result in a very a big impact on the weather system “The system is fundamentally non- linear and way beyond our math and computing abilities” irrefutable evidence change is happening to w hat end ?
- 12. S I D E B A R : d e m o g r a p h i c s Immigrant labour is now an essential Not enough skilled and unskilled people Insufficient highly educated professionals Low numbers of innovators and change agents A very limited number of problem solvers Unfit for purpose education systems Stretched to breaking healthcare +++++++ People migrations to come Aging populations throughout the developed and developing world technology is all w e have that is grow ing exponentially
- 13. S o l u t i o n s “The problems confronting us d e m a n d f a r m o r e t h a n changing all the lightbulbs, saving plastic and paper, bottle tops, solar panels, wind farms” This is a complex situation and there are no simple solutions - we face many difficult challenges and decisions… N o s i l v e r b u l l e t s
- 14. s e g u e o u t : S I M P L E Linear System; The input and output change in direct proportion step-by-step - E.G. y = m x + c Non-Linear System; The input and output do not change in direct proportion - E.G. y = m xn+ c
- 15. C O M P L E X Linear System; A given set of input conditions always result in the same outcome but in a complex hard to understand way Non-Linear System; A given set of input conditions never result in the same outcome
- 16. e x a m p l e ( S ) 1) When asked the same question periodically from being sober tototally inebriated the answers will span a range of p o s s i b i l i t i e s b e c o m i n g increasingly unlikely with time. 2) Outcomes are influenced by the starting conditions and previous activities…stored states and memories in a computer for example!
- 17. S I M P L E r e a l i t y Simple Linear Problems Hard Linear Problems Nasty Problems “Where, and how, we are educated affords the illusion of a largely linear and well behaved universe that can be well characterised mathematically and modelled by computer programs”
- 18. C O M P L E X r e a l i t y Hard Non-Linear Problems Linear Problems “But, the universe is a fundamentally complex and non-linear place where the illusion of simplicity is transitory and short lived - and we face many problems beyond our human and digital computing abilities” Nasty Non-Linear Problems
- 19. C o m p u t i n g l i m i t s Digital computers are self limited by their inability to physically scale-up to cope with the exponential/ combinatorial complexity challenge of big (nasty) Non-Linear problems such as climate change, weather prediction, chemistry, biology, ecological and life systems, population change, conflict/ behavioural modelling of countries, societies, networks, economies al.
- 20. s tat u s Q U O A combination of Quantum Computing, AI, and Super Computers is required to solve problem sets of this kind. Super Computers are advanced and stable elements; AI is making rapid advances with many positive contributions already; whilst QC is still in its infancy!
- 21. s e g u e I N : s i m p l e m i n d e d Climate State Good Stable Bad Unstable Average Temperature State 1 State 2
- 22. s e g u e I N : s i m p l e m i n d e d Climate State Good Stable Bad Unstable Average Temperature State 1 State 2 Tundra Methane Release Amazon Destruction Ocean Temp Rise CO2 Forest Fires Ice Melt CO2 Pollution ++++
- 23. s e g u e I N : s i m p l e m i n d e d Climate State Good Stable Bad Unstable Average Temperature State 1 State 2 Tundra Methane Release Amazon Destruction Ocean Temp Rise CO2 Forest Fires Ice Melt CO2 Pollution ++++
- 24. T H E U P S I D E Where are we ? What do we have ? What can we actually do ? What is on the wider horizon ?
- 25. g e n o m e d e c o d e Demanded powerful digital computers and advanced robotics to achieve a workable price break
- 26. g e n o m e d e c o d e Demanded powerful digital computers and advanced robotics to achieve a workable price break characterises >5000 rare conditions used for >100 drug designs ALL LIFE ON EARTH FLORA and FAUNA is m ade of the sam e genom ic stuff
- 27. P r ot e i n F o l d i n g An ongoing challenge >1000 fold more complex than decoding the genome and demands strong AI to solve the ’N’ Dimensional complexity of folding and key/ pattern matching. Making good progress and the machines are learning fast…but faster and ever more powerful AI required to accelerate the process
- 28. P r ot e i n F o l d i n g An ongoing challenge >1000 fold more complex than decoding the genome and demands strong AI to solve the ’N’ Dimensional complexity of folding and key/ pattern matching. Making good progress and the machines are learning fast…but faster and ever more powerful AI required to accelerate the process M ASSIVE COM BINATORIAL COM PLEXITY OUT OF REACH FOR HUM ANITY BUT W ITHIN THE GRAsp of m achines
- 29. k i l l e r e r r o r s “Communication Errors in this path decide our ultimate fate” Our Genome can transmit correct or corrupted or mutated data Data can mutate or become corrupted during transport Outcome can be a cancer, virus, useful or mutated variant cellular structures >95% of all human ailments are thought to be down to data errors during the creation of new proteins - these mechanisms also looks to be vital to the evolution process
- 30. k i l l e r e r r o r s “Communication Errors in this path decide our ultimate fate” Our Genome can transmit correct or corrupted or mutated data Data can mutate or become corrupted during transport Outcome can be a cancer, virus, useful or mutated variant cellular structures >95% of all human ailments are thought to be down to data errors during the creation of new proteins - these mechanisms also looks to be vital to the evolution process decoding this com m s path dem ands QC and ai plus plus plus
- 33. Without QC we will never understand: -Life -Physics -Biology -Chemistry -Cosmology -Complexity -Non-Linearity -Quantum Mechanics -Many-Body Problems -G e o l o g i c a l D y n a m i c s -Weather/Climate Systems -++++++++++++++++++ s e g u e o u t : w h y Q C
- 34. QCs are NOT: -Digital -Deterministic -Long term stable -About to replace all our digital computers -Going to instantaneously crack all encryption QCs ARE: -Analogue -Subject to errors -Conditionally stable -Reliant on error correction -Produce probabalistic answers B ac k to A n a lo g u e
- 35. QCs work in a partnership with digital computers as their agents of control, algorithm programming, I/0 s e l e c t i o n a n d e r r o r c o r r e c t i o n : a n d t h a t i s v e r y unlikely to change unless we make some fundamentally new discoveries in physics and/or materials O P E R AT I O N QCs produce a range of possible/likely answers that c a n b e q u i c k l y t e s t e d b y a c o n v e n t i o n a l d i g i t a l computer
- 36. Q b i t d u a l i t y H a r d & E a s y t o u n d e r s t a n d ! D i g i t a l B i t s h a v e t w o i n v a r i a n t l o n g t e r m s t a b l e s t a t e s : 1:0 Quantum Bits enjoy a infinity of short term probabalistic stable states: 1 01 01 01 01 01010101010 Schrödinger Schrödinger “ S c h rö d i n g e r ’s B i t s"
- 37. a n a l o g y S p e e d o f s p i n r u l e s h e r e Tw o d i s t i n c t s t a t e s E n g i n e e r i n g L i c e n c e ! I m a g i n e t h i s c o i n s p i n n i n g 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 , 0 0 0 … 0 0 0 x f a s t e r
- 38. Hard problem I s o l a t e d o p e r a t i o n @ < 0 . 2 K I s o l a t e d T h e r m a l l y M e c h a n i c a l l y E M S h i e l d e d A n y f o r m o f e n e r g y i n p u t r e s u l t s i n Q i n s t a b i l i t y !
- 39. C O M P L E X c o n t r o l T h e C r y o g e n i c , C o n t r o l a n d C o m p u t i n g P l a n t i s v a s t c o m p a r e d t o t h e Q C H a r d w a r e i n t e r m s o f p h y s i c a l s i z e a n d e n e r g y c o n s u m p t i o n M y Guess is w e w on’t see m uch w idespread use for a decade plus
- 40. Gary Kasparov IBM Deep Blue segue IN : GAME CHANGER 97 Considered to be impossible by philosophers
- 41. i n < 3 0 Y e a r s ~ 1,000,000,000 x chip capacity Cray 2 1985 $32M and 5kW iPhone 5 2012 $700 and 5W 3 x more powerful
- 42. A I S AVE S l i v e s N o w u b i q u i t o u s b u t i n v i s i b l e
- 43. R o b o t s & A I Ta k e o v e r o r b u d d y - b u d d y ? “Networked surgical/medical robots learn in parallel not serial like humans”
- 44. I N I N D U S T R Y Ta k e o v e r o r b u d d y - b u d d y ?
- 45. A I D E I S G N A N D R O B O T B U I L D
- 46. segue out: AI & Robotics Problem Algorithm Solution Computing Problem Algorithm Solution Machine Learning Problem Priming Algorithm Solution AI Outcomes Dynamic Algorithm Dynamic Correction
- 47. segue out: AI & Robotics Problem Algorithm Solution Computing Problem Algorithm Solution Machine Learning Problem Priming Algorithm Solution AI Outcomes Dynamic Algorithm Dynamic Correction
- 48. Where Are We Today?At the foothills of AI with a mountain to climb Intelligence Abilities Categories 1) Narrow Singular Problem Solving with human involvement in coding and tuning Human based algorithm Top down, Bottom up Machine learning Multiple Problem Classes with interactive memory - little or no human help Initial algorithms from (1) + a learning abilty - solves problems by observing, playing and creating rule sets 2) Learning 3) Cognitive 4) Wide A wide range of problem sets - with cognition & near 100% autonomy Initial algorithms from (2) + a degree of understanding - sees new ways of analysis and solution formulation Can address any problem type/set - has high level context/self awareness A completely new ‘mind’ proposition in a variety of species connected to the wider environment - autonomous Machine influence Human influence Most AI today is here as it is so very easy Google alpha-go IBM Watson
- 49. Where Are We Today?At the foothills of AI with a mountain to climb Intelligence Abilities Categories 1) Narrow Singular Problem Solving with human involvement in coding and tuning Human based algorithm Top down, Bottom up Machine learning Multiple Problem Classes with interactive memory - little or no human help Initial algorithms from (1) + a learning abilty - solves problems by observing, playing and creating rule sets 2) Learning 3) Cognitive 4) Wide A wide range of problem sets - with cognition & near 100% autonomy Initial algorithms from (2) + a degree of understanding - sees new ways of analysis and solution formulation Can address any problem type/set - has high level context/self awareness A completely new ‘mind’ proposition in a variety of species connected to the wider environment - autonomous Machine influence Human influence Most AI today is here as it is so very easy Google alpha-go IBM Watson Isolated Fixed Machines Networked Fixed Machines Networked Fixed/Mobile With Sensors Networked Fixed/Mobile With Full I/O Main Frame Main Frame PC Laptop Main Frame PC Laptop Mobile Main Frame PC Laptop Mobile Robot Sentient Machines Sentient Lifeforms Cyborgs
- 50. 5 TYPE 1 Reactive Task Specific Very Limited Largely Pattern Matching Human Programmers: Chess, cards, dominoes data, speech, pictures, characters, behaviours, movements+ Narrow Cognition Largely Programmed by AI alone: Subsume the networked knowledge of previous and current generations TYPE 3 Reasoning Multi-Task Ability Broadly Applicable TYPE 2 Learning Task Specific Broadly Applicable Memory and Analysis Initial Human AI Program That Then Adapts: Recognises highly complex/ large scale non-linear relationships LADDER A I P r o g r e s s Full Awareness May be categorised as a ‘being’: With a wide range of sensory units networked to other machines TYPE 4 Self-Aware ~ 70yrs to become a solid & deployable technology 2027 Robotic embodiment, extensive sensors & actuators plus entity networking rapidly raises the game 2017 Google Alpha GO p r o p e l s A I i n t o a n autonomous future of learning & doing 2024 AI-Human cooperation see exponential innovation & progress of AI capabilities
- 51. robots & AI Powering Industry and Trade
- 52. segue IN: learning fast A n y t h i n g y o u c a n d o I c a n d o b e t t e r …
- 53. ROBOT EGO ? Just showing off….
- 54. L i f e s av e d c r e at e d r e p u r p o s e d Nightmare, Nemesis, or n e w r o u t e s t o c u r e s , repairs, solutions ? “Carbon, Oxygen, Sulphur, Hydrogen, Phosphorus and Nitrogen, is not the only life supporting framework - they just happen to apply on this planet”
- 55. 321 × 500 Artificial Life A vitro within the last month Customised life-form constructed from frog cells - are we destined to become the agent of an evolutionary speed up
- 56. 321 × 500
- 57. 321 × 500 Code Generation - Malware B r e e d i n g - L i f e S y s t e m Simulation A r t i f i c i a l L i f e In silico since 1985 - now in use
- 58. M I C R O - R O B O T S Dumb today - smart tomorrow
- 59. A n d o u r B I G p r o b l e m s “We live in a closed and isolated system and there is no Plan(et) B” BACK TO TODAY “How do we build sustainable solutions/industries/food and material supplies ? ”
- 60. BIO-TECH nano-TECH AIRoboticsMulti-Disciplinary hot spot for the 21C New materials New industries New processes New capabilitiess Lower energy Lower waste Less friction i n d u s t r y 4 . 0 T h i s i s t h e f i r s t v i t a l s t e p p o lis h in g a ll o u r o ld in d u s t r ies T ec h a n d P r o c es s is n o t en o u g h
- 61. IoT 3G 4G 5G Blue Tooth WiFi GSM EGSM LTE Mesh-Nets ZigBee UNBLoRa RPMA BLE UNB UWB W-P Manufacture R&D BIO- nano AIRobotics I4.0 3R Cycling C r e a t i n g s u s t a i n a b i l i t y IoT = The future n e r v o u s s y s t e m o f t e c h & n e t s - a n E c o s p h e r e f o r u s a n d t h e p l a n e t F r o m b i r t h t o d e a t h , w e l f a re a n d e d u c a t i o n , e m p l o y m e n t , f a m i l i e s & f r i e n d s … … a l l h e a l t h c a re a n d a c t i v i t i e s h a v e t o b e s u p p o r t e d b y a s u s t a i n a b l e f r a m e w o r k t h a t s u p p o r t s a l l t h e n e e d s o f a l l h u m a n i t y
- 62. O B J E C T I V E For stability without conflict “We have to stop producing more and more for the few to start providing sufficient for the many” “Globalisation and information/ knowledge sharing are primary components of this ideal” Axiom - Cochrane
- 63. We might just hold all the necessary components to create tech sustainable solutions… …but it all starts with industry: the production and supply of goods, materials, foods, water and services to sustain peoples in a manner the planet can afford! Robotics AI Nano Tech BIO Tech IOT Cloud T h e J i g s a w
- 64. We are tech/solution rich - we just need the will & application T h e c o re t e c h n o l o g i e s necessary to realise new materials & manufacturing methods also requires a w r a p p e r o f f u n c t i o n a l support with monitoring, data gathering, mining, management, supervision, services, security…. Robotics AI Nano Tech BIO Tech IOT Cloud BIGDATA SMALL DATA Logistics Production Services Support 3R 3 & 4D Printing Micro Forming ProgramableForming/Shaping Smart Materials Programable Colouration Embedded Intelligence Micro Lattice Structures SelfRepair Distributed Automation Localised Production Human-Robot Buddy-Buddy Working Human-AI Team Working Machine + AI Globalisation New Materials Management Genetics Proteomics Stem cells Smart Supply Chains Auto-Immunity Sociology of Things Autonomous Security GPS Tracking opportunity
- 65. I4.0: Kernel New materials, sciences, tech, engineering, processes, automation, robotics, intelligences, thinking… BIO-TECH nano-TECH AIRobotics Superior metals, plastics, ceramics, electronics and eletro-optics, mechtranics, sensors and actuators +++ Low cost processing and forming + high efficiency, low energy and material cost with >95% recovery at the end of life
- 66. New Metals Negating the destructive practices of Industry I/2/3 whilst achieving superior properties and performance at much lower energy cost
- 67. Nano-Tech
- 68. C o at i n g s
- 69. C o at i n g s
- 70. M e t a l , P l a s t i c , C o n c r e t e + + + S E L F H E A L I N G
- 71. Self cleaning Printed panels Colour programmable Self repairing to a point Integrated energy storage Not wholly possible yet - but certainly feasible f e a s i b l e v e h i c l e s
- 72. T o B e C o m m e r c i a l i s e d
- 73. w h e e l / t y r e r e v o l u t i o n
- 74. m a n y va r i A n ts
- 75. W h e e l F u t u r e s
- 76. - Materials inventory & suppliers - Production process detail - Vehicle compatibilities - Full logistics record - Storage histories - Handling details - History of use - Temperature - Humidity - Stress - Failures - Repairs - Disposal - Recycle - Reuse - +++ - Dynamic element of a vehicle - Performance optimisation - Parameter adjustment - Pressure adaptation - Suspension trim - +++ D u m b T o S m a r t
- 77. Wired to wireless T h e e ra d i c a t i o n o f cables now pending D u m b T o S m a r t
- 78. Cost /unit << $0.01 Power/unit << 0.1uW P r i n ta b l e s
- 79. Localised facilities cut down on component part logistics cost with bulk powders/fluids shipped direct to small shops …the potential for transport saving here is vast… … s h i p p i n g d e s i g n s a n d s p e c i f i c a t i o n s i n s t e a d o f products is the next big step for globalisation… Plastic Metal Po w d e r Delivery Small Local Company P r o d u c t i o n
- 80. …cost effective ?? P R I N T E D
- 81. 7Bn mouths demand modern farming technology F E E D I N G T H E W O R L D
- 82. FEEDING (MORE?) WITH LESS More planet friendly - less energy, materials and damage ?
- 83. I n t e r n e t o f p e o p l e P e r s o n a l l y , l o c a l l y , g l o b a l l y c o n n e c t e d Tagged Food Prepared/Consumed Food What we Do Are We Well ? AnalysysInformed Diagnosis The Out
- 84. I n t e r n e t o f p e o p l e P e r s o n a l l y , l o c a l l y , g l o b a l l y c o n n e c t e d Tagged Food Prepared/Consumed Food What we Do Are We Well ? AnalysysInformed Diagnosis The Out
- 85. I n t e r n e t o f p e o p l e P e r s o n a l l y , l o c a l l y , g l o b a l l y c o n n e c t e d Tagged Food Prepared/Consumed Food What we Do Are We Well ? AnalysysInformed Diagnosis The Out
- 86. N o n - I n v a s i v e t o I n v a s i v e t o i m p l a n t Non Invasive Invasive(ish) Invasive User Driven Doctor/User Doctor Driven ’n’ hours/day 24/7 Melts Away F U T U R E M O N I T O R I N G
- 87. A X I O M Things that Think want to Link and Things that Link want to Think
- 88. Why oh why do we think we are unique ? h u m a n r e a c t i o n