Fullerpresentationnvareconomicsummit 100929125840-phpapp02
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The document summarizes an economic outlook presentation given by Dr. Stephen Fuller from George Mason University. It provides data on job growth, unemployment rates, and housing market trends for the Washington D.C. metro area and Northern Virginia region from 2007 to 2010. Charts show the Washington area recovering from job losses during the recession, with unemployment decreasing. Housing sales and prices are also beginning to increase again after declines. The forecast predicts continued growth in the regional economy through 2015, with increasing employment across D.C., suburban Maryland, and Northern Virginia.
Fullerpresentationnvareconomicsummit 100929125840-phpapp02
- 1. NVAR’s 14th Annual Economic Summit September 16, 2010 The Outlook for the Washington Area Economy Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University
- 2. -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change
- 3. 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change July 09 – July 10 -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 (000s) Washington + 41,800 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 4. Annual Job Change Washington MSA -100 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2002 2004 2006 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 5. Annual Job Change Northern Virginia -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2002 2004 2006 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 6. Job Change by Sector Dec 2007 – Dec 2009 Washington MSA -4 -5 -8 -13 -11 2 -37 -3 -23 -4 13 24 -9 -40 -20 0 20 40 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total - 79,300 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 7. Job Change by Sector July 2009 – July 2010 Washington MSA 0 1 -3 -5 -3 3 -5 12 12 -7 4 20 14 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total 41,200 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 8. Job Change by Sector July 2009 – July 2010 Northern Virginia 0 -1 -2 -4 -1 3 -7 10 7 -1 7 7 4 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total 22,700 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 9. Unemployment Rate 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 % Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted U.S. Washington 9.7 6.3 5.2 Northern Virginia
- 10. 15 Largest Job Markets Ranked by Unemployment Rate July 2010 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 % US 9.7 Source: BLS, NOT Seasonally Adjusted 6.3
- 12. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through August 2010 12-Month Moving Average Northern Virginia
- 13. Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-the-Year-Change 2000 – 2010, MSA -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-May, 2006 >100 % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis % Aug = - 0.3%
- 14. Total Active Listings Per Sale August Each Year 0 5 10 15 20 25 LDN PG FFXARL DC MONT PW Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 15. Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types 6 11 1414 20 22 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 6 4 0 0 -2 0 -9 -5 -12-11 -13-13 -16-17 -23 -18 -23 -25 -24 -26 -20-18 -14 -10 -9 -7 0 -4 3 9 6 6 4 6 5 4 7 5 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 2010
- 16. Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types 5 10 1414 2223 1 1 -1-1-3 -1 -2 1 2 1 -3 -5-4 -15 -12 -18-17 -19-20-22 -25 -32 -28 -29-30 -28-28 -22 -19 -12 -8 -2 -1 9 5 11 15 19 161716 1211 9 9 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 % Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 2010
- 17. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2003 2005 Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate Washington Metro, All Housing Types % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Hanley Wood
- 18. Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011 Metro Area 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
- 19. Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Sept. 2011 Northern Virginia 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
- 21. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015 Washington Area and Sub-state Portions (Annual % Change) -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 % DC SM MSA NV Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 22. Employment Change by Sub-state Region (000s) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 D.C. 5.3 10.1 -0.7 6.2 7.2 6.7 7.2 7.3 Sub. MD 4.8 -1.4 -26.7 9.3 9.7 11.1 13.3 14.7 No. VA 13.2 4.4 -24.5 16.7 20.4 26.5 28.3 29.9 REGION 23.3 12.9 -51.9 32.2 37.3 44.3 48.8 51.9 Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS
- 23. -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 % Source: Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GDP/GRP 2000 - 2015 Washington U.S.