Stephen fuller final
- 1. Potomac Officers Club Post-Sequestration Summit May 14, 2013 The Washington Area’s Post- Federally Dependent Economy Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University
- 2. Federal Spending Patterns In the Washington Area
- 3. 2010 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Local Serving Activities 34.8% Non-Local Business 12.0 % Total Federal 39.8% Procurement 19.1% Other Federal 10.7 % Fed Wages & Salaries 10.0% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 4. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, 1980-2012 $ Billions TOTAL = $1,023.5 Billion Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report $80.0 B $75.6 B
- 5. Professional & Business Services Washington MSA -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2002 2005 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tot 2012 = 702,300Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 6. 150 200 250 300 350 400 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Federal Employment in the Washington Metro Area, 1950-2012 000s Eisenhower Kennedy – Johnson Nixon - Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush 2 - 5 + 74 + 35 + 17 0 -8.6 - 37 + 24 Obama +17.5 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 7. Federal Government Washington MSA -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2002 2005 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Tot 2012 = 377,400Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 8. Summary for Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area, 2010-2012 • Federal Procurement Outlays declined 8.4% between FY 2010 and FY 2012. • Federal employment has declined since peaking in July 2010, losing 8,700 jobs or 2.25%. • Federal payroll declined by 0.6% between FY 2010 and FY 2011 and will continue to decline as the workforce shrinks and older workers retire and are replaced by younger workers.
- 9. How Has Reduced Federal Spending Affected The Washington Area Economy?
- 10. Metro Area Comparisons Job Change 2011-2012 15 Largest Metro Areas 18 31 32 40 40 41 42 44 50 61 64 84 99 99 136 -300 -100 100 300 Philadelphia Minneapolis Boston Seattle Detroit Phoenix Atlanta Miami SF-Oakland Chicago Dallas Los Angeles Houston New York (000s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis WASHINGTON
- 11. 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: Mar 2012 – Mar 2013 -10 10 30 50 70 90 110 130 (000s) Washington + 36,100 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 12. Annual Job Change Washington MSA, 2002-2013 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 2002 2005 2008 (000s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 13. Job Change by Sector Mar 2012 – Mar 2013 Washington MSA 1 0 -1 -1 6 -3 2 11 -2 9 9 -3 7 -20.0 -10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total = 36,100 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 14. Job Change by Sector Feb 2013 – Mar 2013 Washington MSA 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 7 2 3 0 0 5 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total = 23,600 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 15. Job Change by Sector Mar 2012 – Mar 2013 District of Columbia 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 1 0 -1 5 -4 1 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total 2,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 16. Job Change by Sector Mar 2012 – Mar 2013 Suburban Maryland 0 0 -1 0 0 0 2 5 -1 5 2 -1 2 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total 11,900 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 17. Job Change by Sector Mar 2012 – Mar 2013 Northern Virginia 0 0 0 -1 4 -3 -3 3 2 8 2 2 4 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Information Financial Other Services Construction Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade State & Local Govt Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. Prof. & Bus. Svcs (000s) Total 17,900 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 18. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 8.3 – DC 7.6 – U.S. 6.4 – SMD 5.2 – MSA 4.0 - NVA Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, 2006-2013 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)
- 19. Washington Area Economic Outlook: 2012-2017
- 20. Job Growth in the Washington Area By Sector, 2012-2017 (in thousands) Sector 2012 2017 Change Percent Prof. & Bus. Ser. 697.4 841.2 143.8 20.6 Federal Gov’t 380.4 358.4 - 22.0 - 5.8 Education/Health 380.2 419.0 38.8 10.2 S & L Gov’t 309.7 321.6 11.9 3.8 Hospitality 276.8 285.0 8.2 3.0 Retail Trade 254.1 266.6 12.5 4.9 Other Services 182.8 185.3 2.5 1.4 Financial Services 150.0 154.7 4.7 3.1 Construction 146.4 201.8 55.4 37.8 Information Ser. 80.6 87.6 7.0 8.7 Other Sectors (3) 175.0 193.2 18.2 10.4 Total Jobs 3,033.4 3,314.4 281.0 9.3
- 21. Major Sources of Job Growth in the Washington Area , 2012-2017 (in thousands) Growth Sectors 2012 2017 Change Percent Prof. & Bus. Ser. 697.4 841.2 143.8 20.6 Education/Health 380.2 419.0 38.8 10.2 Construction 146.4 201.8 55.4 37.8 Sub-Totals 1,224.0 1,462.0 238.0 19.4 % Total 40.4 44.1 84.7_________ Totals 3,033.4 3,314.4 281.0 9.3 Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis
- 22. Occupation Net New % of Total % Change Business and Financial 52,253 14.7 13.7 Computer, Math and Sci 33,630 9.4 14.2 Health Care (all occup.) 31,915 9.0 13.7 Office Admin Support 30,334 8.5 6.3 Sales & Related Occup. 29,246 8.2 7.0 Personal Care Occup. 23,892 6.7 15.2 Management Occupations 22,964 6.4 7.1 Education & Training 21,642 6.1 10.6 Totals 224,234 63.0 10.0 Source: EMSI Inc., GMU Center for Regional Analysis Washington Metropolitan Area: Major Sources of Net New Jobs 2012-2017
- 23. Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 D.C. 10.5 14.1 5.6 7.3 8.7 9.7 7.9 5.7 Sub. MD -6.5 4.4 4.8 13.6 16.8 20.7 18.5 15.2 No. VA 8.7 17.4 18.0 24.5 30.5 39.1 36.8 26.1 REGION 12.7 35.9 28.4 45.4 56.0 69.5 63.2 47.0 Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000 Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight Jan. 7 2013, GMU Center for Regional Analysis NOTE: 2012 Total is the sum of sub-regions and does not agree with the Mar 18, 2013 published MSA total.
- 24. -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis Economic Outlook (GRP), 2012-2017 Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) DC SM MSA NV
- 25. 2017 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Local Serving Activities 37.8% Non-Local Business 16.2 % Total Federal 29.2% Procurement 12.0% Other Federal 9.7 % Fed Wages & Salaries 7.5 % Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis