Futuristic multi-model approach : Customizing adaptation packages to reduce vulnerability to climate change (ICRISAT Annual report 2015)
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The document outlines a project in Nkayi, Zimbabwe, aimed at developing tailored adaptation packages for farmers to combat the impacts of climate change, specifically addressing increased vulnerability due to rising temperatures. Using a multi-model framework, researchers created customized scenarios to aid policymakers in making informed decisions and promote sustainable agricultural practices. Key interventions include crop diversification, fertilizer microdosing, and improved livestock management, all designed to enhance resilience and increase farm net returns while addressing food security and poverty.
Futuristic multi-model approach : Customizing adaptation packages to reduce vulnerability to climate change (ICRISAT Annual report 2015)
- 1. Assess Climate Change risks Engage stakeholders Co-design pathways ▪▪ Climate data - GCMs2 ▪▪ Crop model APSIM3 & DSSAT4 ▪▪ Livestock model LivSim ▪▪ Economic model TOA-MD5 Environment Government Crops Extension agents Livestock Climate Use multi-model framework Map network of experts Lessons learned from AgMIP1 Phase I Customize drastic adaptation packages to suit farm types instead of blanket application of incremental technologies 1 Agricultural Model Intercomparison Project; 2 Global Climate Models; 3 Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator; 4 Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer; 5 Trade Off Analysis - Multi-Dimensional model Follow up scenarios with Contrast future biophysical and socio- economic conditions based on optimistic and pessimistic assumptions. 2015 2050 Define future scenarios Expert discussion External review Stakeholder feedback Discuss scenarios with policy makers Redesign farm systems Key elements of packages for all farm types Crops having market demand Drought-tolerant crops Dual purpose forage New crops Fertilizer microdosing Livestock Design drastic adaptation packages Evaluate impact AgMIP Impact Explorer • Web-based tool for scenario and information visualization • Supports information exchange among stakeholders and researchers • Guides decision making • Documentation and feedback. Customizing adaptation packages to reduce vulnerability to climate change 2. Futuristic multi-model approach 11Building Climate-Smart Villages10 Building Climate-Smart Villages
- 2. Hit by two consecutive droughts, farmers in Zimbabwe are reeling under the impact of unpredictable climate. The situation is much worse in Nkayi district, one of the sites of this project. Statistics show that this district has the highest poverty prevalence in Zimbabwe. Future scenarios predict that 60% of farming households will be exposed to greater vulnerability due to an estimated 2 -3.5°C rise in temperature*. Researchers say that the time to begin equipping Nkayi farmers to face a grim 2050 climate scenario is now. Building on the lessons learnt from Phase I of the project, the Phase II interventions aimed at tailoring drastic adaptation packages to suit farm types. To substantiate the benefits of this package over the blanket technology packages in use, the following interventions were made. Using a multi-model framework for climate, crop, livestock and socio-economic simulation, customized climate change adaptation packages were developed for farmers in Nkayi, Zimbabwe. The computer- simulated scenarios are helping policy makers to make crucial decisions to support farmers. Interventions Researchers modeled scenarios for 1. Incremental Change package 2. Radical Change package for three farm types Crop model - APSIM4 & DSSAT5 Crop management: fertilizer, rotation, varieties,… Effects on on-farm crop production; rangeland grass production Climate data - GCMs3 Historical (1980-2010) Mid century (2040-2070) Projected changes in temperature, precipitation Livestock model - LivSim On-farm feed production; rangeland biomass Effects on livestock production (milk, off-take, mortality rates) Economic model - TOA-MD6 Household characteristics, agricultural production prices, costs Economic effects of climate change and adaptations on entire farms Assessing vulnerability to Climate Change A multi-model framework with climate, crop, livestock and socio-economic components was used to create scenarios. The challenge * Source: Alexander C. Ruane, NASA/AgMIP Zimbabwe Establishing stakeholder networks Stakeholder networks were mapped to bring together expertise on crops, livestock, markets, environment, climate change, agricultural extension and rural development. Communication channels were designed at national and sub-national scales for leveraging synergies from improved access to markets, technologies and subject expertise. Future scenarios Optimistic Estimated productivity growth rate of key drivers Pessimistic 60% of farming households exposed to greater vulnerability 40% 30%35% 25% maize cattleother crops small ruminants Agricultural produce: 5-20% 60% Cultivated land: Small ruminants: Poor farmers would double flocks price growth increase Very Poor will lose up to 9% of net returns and others a smaller portion Co-designing pathways - define future scenarios Information exchange among stakeholders and researchers was through AgMIP Impact Explorer, a web-based tool used for scenario and information visualization and documentation. Together they defined future biophysical and socio-economic conditions that were contrasted based on optimistic and pessimistic assumptions. Scenarios were followed up with expert discussion, external review and stakeholder feedback to design the adaptation package. (Left picture) In the face of climate change, the most appropriate and profitable crops, based on robust research information, must be promoted at the local and national scale. (Right picture) Some farmers have already shifted from maize to more drought tolerant sorghum. Photos: S Homann, ICRISAT 13Building Climate-Smart Villages12 Building Climate-Smart Villages
- 3. Maize Sorghum Groundnut Beans Mucuna Banagrass Fertilizer Cattle/small ruminants Milk production (% of cropland) kg N/ha Offtake rate Liter/day/cow Very poor No cattle, 1.3 ha 3 times 1.4 3.8 25 - - 6.7 0/3 n.a Poor < / = 8 cattle, 1.8 ha 2.8 times 1.4 3.3 - 33 - 6.7 2.5/4.2 1.9 Better-off > 8 cattle, 2.5 ha 3.5 times 3.2 2.5 - 25 25 6.7 2.9/5 1.5 Increase/decrease in adaptive package when compared to farmers’ practice in three farm types Adaptation package Adaptation packages were designed for the below three categories: • Very poor: Farm size 1.3 ha; no cattle • Poor: Farm size 1.8 ha; 8 cattle or less • Better-off: Farm size 2.5 ha; more than 8 cattle The key features of the packages are - 1. Crop diversification: • Less maize and more groundnuts for better soil fertility, family nutrition and income • Drought-tolerant sorghum for ‘Very poor’ • Dual purpose forage mucuna pruriens to support livestock and improve soil fertility • Other crops: Common beans (for Very poor), Banagrass (for Better-off). 2. Fertilizer microdosing: For increased yields 3. Livestock: More cattle and small ruminants for economic gain 4. Milk production: Protein rich fodder from mucuna and groundnut haulms increases milk yield. For incentivizing farmers for adoption of the adaptation package large-scale measures need to be taken by policy makers and key stakeholders for linking farmers to markets and integrating crop and livestock production. Drought and disease tolerant fodder legume mucuna pruriens enriches the soil in nitrogen and provides valuable protein-rich fodder resources for the farmer. Photo: P Masikati, ICRAF AgMIP projections show that poverty will reduce significantly if climate smart technologies are adopted; yet many, especially those without livestock will remain poor. Photo: S Homann, ICRISAT Evaluated impact of drastic adaptation packages on net returns: Very Poor: Will double their returns Poor & Better-off: Will increase by 50-75% Entire community: Will see an 86% increase on net returns as compared to 72% for incremental technologies Projected impact Increase in farm net returns (%) Drastic packages Incremental change Very Poor 120 50 Less Poor >50 20 Better off 75 <20 Farmers below poverty line (%) Drastic packages Incremental change With large cattle herds 35 65 With small cattle herds 75 >90 Without livestock 100 100 ▪▪ Poverty levels might remain high, even after drastic economic changes and tailored investments. ▪▪ Substantial change in poverty rates will be for those with large cattle herds. The impact of climate change is hard to quantify and policy makers find it difficult to estimate the cost of the interventions needed to combat it. In this case computer-simulated scenarios gave policy makers a picture of what was ahead helping them make necessary decisions. Greater support for groundnut value chains With the support of the Government of Zimbabwe, ICRISAT imported 20 tons of groundnut seed from Malawi, which was distributed to farmers for seed multiplication and testing. This was in response to Nkayi farmers demand for quality certified seeds and also in line with scientists’ recommendations for reviving groundnut cultivation given its high market demand and its use as nutritious feed, fodder and soil enriching properties. More at: http://www.zimnewsnow.com/ node/704#sthash.g3lGW5sY.dpuf Promoting sorghum and millet Recognizing the need to promote more drought tolerant crops, the Government of Zimbabwe has set the purchase price for sorghum and millet to equal maize. 2015 IMPACT Project: Re-designing smallholder crop-livestock systems in semi-arid Southern Africa to address poverty and enhance resilience to climate change: stakeholder driven integrated multi-modeling research Investor: AgMIP receives major support from UK Aid, USDA, USAID, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Partners: Wageningen University, Germany; ICRISAT This work is being undertaken as part of the 15Building Climate-Smart Villages14 Building Climate-Smart Villages