Gcpl Result Update

4QFY2010 Result Update I FMCG
April 26, 2010

Godrej Consumer Products ACCUMULATE
CMP Rs298
Performance Highlights Target Price Rs329
Godrej Consumer (GCPL) posted a Top-line growth of 48.1% yoy, in-line with Investment Period 12 Months
our Estimates. However, the Earnings growth at 54.6% yoy was ahead of our
expectations. Adjusted for Godrej Sara Lee’s (GSL) contribution, the Top-line Stock Info
and Earnings growth stood at 5.3% yoy and 16% yoy, respectively. After the
Sector FMCG
4QFY2010 results, we have marginally tweaked our numbers to factor in the
slowdown in the core domestic business (Soaps and Hair Colours). Market Cap (Rs cr) 9,175
We maintain an Accumulate on the stock.
Beta 0.2
Earnings beat estimates, Domestic growth at 1.9% disappointing: Godrej 52 WK High / Low 334/130
Consumer (GCPL) reported a strong Top-line growth at 48.1% yoy to Rs509cr.
Godrej-Sara Lee (GSL) contributed Rs147cr to the Top-line, adjusted for which Avg. Daily Volume 73,918
GCPL posted a disappointing growth of 5.3% yoy to Rs362cr. Moreover,
Face Value (Rs) 1
international operations (particularly Africa) registered strong growth during
the quarter (we estimate it at ~19% yoy), which indicates that domestic BSE Sensex 17,745
operations (without GSL) grew just 1.9% yoy. We estimate that Soaps declined
Nifty 5,322
~3% yoy and Hair Colours grew in low single digits. We attribute the same to
base effect and negative value growth. GCPL’s consolidated Earnings for the Reuters Code GOCP.BO
quarter registered a growth of 54.6% yoy to Rs92cr, aided by the increase in
Bloomberg Code GCPL @IN
the Top-line and Margin expansion. On the operating front, GCPL delivered a
Margin expansion of 154bp yoy to 21.1%, driving a 59.7% yoy growth in Shareholding Pattern (%)
EBITDA to Rs108cr, partially aided by a low base and GSL’s consolidation. A
614bp yoy jump in Gross Margins (owing to a low base effect) aided Margin Promoters 71.8
expansion. MF/Banks/Indian FIs 2.9
Outlook and Valuation: Going ahead, we expect the growth momentum to FII/NRIs/OCBs 18.5
decelerate and expect GCPL to post a 15% CAGR in the Top-line and a 14%
CAGR in Earnings during FY2010-12E, as the benefits of price hikes fade out, Indian Public 6.8
GSL’s consolidation effect forms a base and Gross Margin expansion peaks Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
out. At the CMP of Rs297, GCPL is trading at 21x FY2012E EPS of Rs14.2.
With GCPL's wider portfolio, stronger performance of its International Sensex 5.7 56.6 24.7
business, the likely acquisition of the remaining 51% stake in GSL from Sara
Lee and a potential upside trigger from further acquisitions (likely in Latin GCPL 20.4 125.2 116.8
America), we believe that the stock still offers significant triggers for sustained
performance. Hence, we maintain an Accumulate on the stock, with a Target
Price of Rs329, valuing GCPL at 23x FY2012E EPS.

Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E Mar (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 1,393 2,041 2,412 2,720
% chg 26.3 46.5 18.2 12.7
Net Profit (Adj) 172.6 339.6 392.4 437.8
% chg 8.4 96.7 15.5 11.6
OPM (%) 14.6 20.0 20.2 20.3
EPS (Rs) 5.6 11.0 12.7 14.2
P/E (x) 53.2 27.0 23.4 21.0 Anand Shah
P/BV (x) 13.5 12.1 9.5 7.7 Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 334
E-mail: anand.shah@angeltrade.com
RoE (%) 46.9 51.3 45.4 40.5
RoCE (%) 30.3 41.6 42.0 40.5
Chitrangda Kapur
EV/Sales (x) 6.5 4.4 3.7 3.2
Tel: 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 323
EV/EBITDA (x) 44.5 22.3 18.3 15.8 E-mail: chitrangda.kapur@angeltrade.com
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: Not factored Tura/Megasari Numbers

1
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539

GCPL I 4QFY2010 Result Update

Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance Update (Consolidated)
Y/E March (Rs cr) 4QFY10 4QFY09 % chg FY2010 FY2009 % chg
Net Sales 509.2 343.9 48.1 2,041.2 1,393.0 46.5
Consumption of RM 226.8 174.3 30.1 946.3 769.5 23.0
(% of Sales) 44.5 50.7 46.4 55.2
Staff Cost 32.7 24.2 34.9 187.7 87.6 114.4
(% of Sales) 6.4 7.0 9.2 6.3
Advertising 34.5 15.3 125.2 172.1 99.7 72.5
(% of Sales) 6.8 4.5 8.4 7.2
Other Expenses 107.7 62.8 71.6 327.8 232.4 41.0
(% of Sales) 21.2 18.3 16.1 16.7
Total Expenditure 401.7 276.6 45.2 1,633.9 1,189.3 37.4
Operating Profit 107.5 67.3 59.7 407.3 203.7 99.9
OPM (%) 21.1 19.6 20.0 14.6
Interest 2.7 4.8 11.1 20.1
Depreciation/Amortisation 6.1 4.0 50.0 23.6 19.2 22.7
Other Income 12.2 10.3 18.4 47.3 44.8 5.6
PBT (excl Ext. Items) 111.0 68.8 61.3 419.9 209.2 100.7
Ext Income/(Expenses) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
PBT (incl Ext. Items) 111.0 68.8 61.3 419.9 209.2 100.7
(% of Sales) 21.8 20.0 20.6 15.0
Prov. for Taxation 19.2 9.4 103.8 80.3 36.0 123.4
(% of PBT) 17.3 13.7 19.1 17.2
Recurring PAT 91.8 59.4 54.6 339.6 173.3 96.0
PATM (%) 18.0 17.3 16.6 12.4
Reported PAT 91.8 59.4 54.6 339.6 173.3 96.0
Equity Shares (cr) 30.8 25.7 30.8 25.7
EPS (Rs) 3.0 2.3 28.9 11.0 6.7 63.4
Source: Company, Angel Research

Godrej Sara Lee drives Top-line growth; adjusted growth at 5.3% yoy
disappointing

Godrej Consumer (GCPL) reported strong Top-line growth at 48.1% yoy to Rs509cr
(Rs344cr), in-line with our expectations of a 51% yoy growth to Rs519cr.
Godrej-Sara Lee (GSL) contributed Rs147cr to the Top-line for the quarter. However,
adjusted for GSL’s revenue, GCPL posted a growth of 5.3% yoy to Rs362cr which
was below our expectation. Moreover, international operations (particularly Africa)
registered strong growth during the quarter (we estimate it at ~19% yoy) which
indicates that domestic operations (without GSL) grew just 1.9% yoy. While our talks
with the management indicate pressure on volumes but no significant decline in
Soaps or Hair Colour, the muted growth in domestic business (we had modeled in
moderation) has come as a negative surprise to us. We attribute the same to base
effect and negative value growth.

Margin expansion boosts Earnings, which grow 54.6% yoy

GCPL’s consolidated Earnings for the quarter registered a growth of 54.6% yoy to
Rs92cr (Rs59cr), ahead of our estimates of a 37% yoy growth to Rs81cr. In terms of
Earnings, GSL’s consolidation contributed Rs23cr during the quarter, adjusted for
which the growth in Bottom-line stood at 16% yoy to Rs69cr. The robust growth in
the Top-line and Margin expansion boosted Earnings. However, in terms of EPS
(adjusted for dilution of share swap to acquire GSL), GCPL registered a growth of
28.9% yoy to Rs3 (Rs2.3).

April 26, 2010 2


OPM expands 154bp, aided by 614bp Gross Margin expansion

At the operating front, GCPL delivered a Margin expansion of 154bp yoy to 21.1%
(19.6%), driving a 59.7% yoy growth in EBITDA to Rs108cr (Rs67cr), partially aided
by a low base and GSL’s consolidation. A 614bp yoy jump in Gross Margins (owing
to a low base effect) and a decrease of 62bp yoy in Staff costs were the key drivers
behind the Margin expansion. However, higher Other expenditure (up 290bp yoy)
and a jump in Advertising spends (up 232bp yoy) kept Margins under check. Going
ahead, we expect input costs for GCPL to rise, as palm oil prices have hardened
during the quarter and as the benefits of inventory/price covers fade away. We have
modeled in a 200bp contraction in Gross Margins during FY2010-12E.

Soaps Revenue declines ~3%; Hair Colour growth moderates to low
single digits

GCPL’s Soaps business registered a decline of ~3%, largely owing to a high base
effect (4QFY2009 saw soaps clocking a 46% yoy growth) and negative value
growth. Our talks with the management indicate pressure on volume growth, but no
significant decline. Near-term growth in Soaps is likely to be driven by an increasing
focus on smaller packs (to drive rural penetration) and the successful launch of new
variants. The company continued to be the second-largest toilet soaps player in
India, increasing its market share to 10.5% from 9.4% in March 2009 (increased
sequentially, as well, by 20bp). Godrej No1 was re-launched in April 2010, with a
new shape, packaging and natural oils, and Cinthol Regular was launched in small
packs, priced at Rs6. Going ahead, we expect GCPL to witness increased competitive
pressures, owing to higher investments, and aggression from HUL and ITC.
Moreover, higher food inflation and the fading effect of price hikes, coupled with
higher competitive intensity, are likely to lead to a moderation in the revenue of this
segment.

GCPL’s Hair Colour business witnessed a moderation in growth to mid single digits,
owing to negative value growth and pressure on the volume front. GCPL maintained
its marketshare in the category on a sequential basis at 33.3%.

International Business on a strong footing; Keyline witnesses a slow-down

The performance of the International business registered yet another quarter of
steady gains, registering an overall growth of ~19% yoy, largely aided by significant
revenue traction in the Rapidol and Kinky businesses. For the full year FY2010,
Keyline Brands (UK), registered a muted growth of 9% yoy. However, African
operations, namely Rapidol (South Africa) and Kinky, posted a robust growth of 42%
yoy and 41% yoy, respectively, in INR terms. However, the Profitability of the
international operations came under pressure during the quarter (due to currency
volatility), and registered a decline of 18% to Rs2.5cr (Rs3.1cr).

Exhibit 2: Key Subsidiaries Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E Mar (Rs cr) 4QFY10 4QFY09 % chg FY2010 FY2009 % chg
Sales (Rs cr)
Keyline Brands 45.5 43.5 4 218.6 200.6 9
Rapidol 17.6 11.0 60 69.4 48.8 42
Kinky Group 13.9 10.7 30 72.3 51.4 41
GGME 4.5 3.0 50 17.7 12.2 45
Total Sales - Subsidiaries 81.4 68.2 19 378.0 313.1 21
Source: Company, Angel Research

April 26, 2010 3


Outlook and Valuation

After the 4QFY2010 results, we have marginally tweaked our numbers to factor in a
slowdown in the core domestic business (Soaps and Hair Colours). However, owing
to the strong growth in the insecticides business (Godrej Sara Lee) and the steady
performance of the International business (particularly Africa), our Top-line estimate
is largely unchanged. We have revised our Operating Margin marginally upwards to
factor in a higher Gross Margin (despite modeling almost a 200bp contraction over
FY2010-12E). However, inability to take price hikes (due to competitive pressures),
the impact of currency volatility on international operations and higher-than-
anticipated advertising spends carry downside risks to our estimates.

Exhibit 3: Revision in Estimates
Old Estimate New Estimate % chg
(Rs cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E
Revenue 2,420 2,742 2,412 2,720 (0.3) (0.8)
OPM (%) 19.9 20.2 20.2 20.3 25bp 5bp
EPS 12.6 14.3 12.7 14.2 1.0 (0.7)
Source: Angel Research

FY2010E has been a year of strong growth for GCPL, driven by significant Gross
Margin expansion, improved traction in the international business and consolidation
of GSL’s business. However, going ahead, we expect the growth momentum to
decelerate, and expect GCPL to post a 15% CAGR in the Top-line and a 14% CAGR
in Earnings during FY2010-12E, as the benefits of price hikes fade out, GSL’s
consolidation effect forms a base and the Gross Margin expansion peaks out.

At the CMP of Rs297, GCPL is trading at 21x FY2012E EPS of Rs14.2. While we have
not factored the Tura and Megasari deals into our numbers, owing to a lack of
details, particularly in terms of deal size, our preliminary analysis indicates that both
the deals are likely to be EPS accretive. Moreover, with GCPL's wider portfolio, a
stronger performance of its International business, the likely acquisition of the
remaining 51% stake in GSL from Sara Lee and a potential upside trigger from
further acquisitions (likely in Latin America), we believe that the stock still offers
significant triggers for sustained performance. Hence, we maintain an Accumulate
on the stock, with a Target Price of Rs329, valuing GCPL at 23x FY2012E EPS.

Exhibit 4: 1-year forward P/E band
350 14x 18x 22x 26x

300

250
Share Price (Rs)

200

150

100

50

-
Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09
Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10
Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09
Aug-05

Feb-06

Aug-06

Feb-07

Aug-07

Feb-08

Aug-08

Feb-09

Aug-09

Feb-10
Jun-05

Jun-06

Jun-07

Jun-08

Jun-09

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

April 26, 2010 4


Exhibit 5: 1-year forward P/E Chart
35.0

30.0

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

-

Apr-02

Dec-02
Apr-03

Dec-03
Apr-04

Dec-04
Apr-05

Dec-05
Apr-06

Dec-06
Apr-07

Dec-07
Apr-08

Dec-08
Apr-09

Dec-09
Apr-10
Aug-02

Aug-03

Aug-04

Aug-05

Aug-06

Aug-07

Aug-08

Aug-09
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research; Note: Red-line indicates 5-year average

Exhibit 6: 1-year forward Premium to Sensex Chart
100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

-20%

-40%

-60%
Dec-02

Dec-03

Dec-04

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09
Apr-02

Apr-03

Apr-04

Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10
Aug-02

Aug-03

Aug-04

Aug-05

Aug-06

Aug-07

Aug-08

Aug-09
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research; Note: Red-line indicates 5-year average

April 26, 2010 5


Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) Rs crore
Y/E Mar FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
Gross sales 990 1,133 1,435 2,082 2,456 2,768
Less: Excise duty 38 30 42 41 43 49
Net Sales 952 1,103 1,393 2,041 2,412 2,720
Other operating income - 1 4 4 8 9
Total operating income 952 1,104 1,397 2,045 2,420 2,729
% chg 36.0 16.0 26.5 46.4 18.3 12.8
Total Expenditure 772 888 1,189 1,634 1,926 2,169
Cost of Materials 462 518 770 946 1,148 1,314
Advertising Exp 77 92 97 172 200 223
Personnel 54 73 87 188 220 245
Others 178 206 237 328 358 388
EBITDA 180 214 204 407 486 551
% chg 27.2 19.4 (5.0) 100.0 19.3 13.3
(% of Net Sales) 18.9 19.5 14.6 20.0 20.2 20.3
Depreciation& Amortisation 14 18 19 24 28 32
EBIT 165 196 184 384 458 519
% chg 27.5 18.6 (6.0) 108.0 19.3 13.4
(% of Net Sales) 17.4 17.8 13.2 18.8 19.0 19.1
Interest & other Charges 10 15 19 11 10 9
Other Income 3 5 40 43 39 37
(% of PBT) 1.7 2.4 19.1 10.3 7.9 6.7
Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 159 187 209 420 494 556
% chg 20.0 18.3 11.6 100.7 17.5 12.6
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) (10) - (1) - - -
PBT (reported) 168 187 210 420 494 556
Tax 24 28 37 80 101 118
(% of PBT) 15.4 15.1 17.5 19.1 20.5 21.3
PAT (reported) 144 159 173 340 392 438
Add: Share of associates - - - - - -
Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - -
PAT after MI (reported) 144 159 173 340 392 438
ADJ. PAT 134 159 173 340 392 438
% chg 11.1 18.7 8.4 96.7 15.5 11.6
(% of Net Sales) 14.1 14.4 12.4 16.6 16.3 16.1
Basic EPS (Rs) 5.9 7.1 6.7 11.0 12.7 14.2
Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) 4.4 5.2 5.6 11.0 12.7 14.2
% chg 11.1 18.7 8.4 96.7 15.5 11.6

April 26, 2010 6


Balance Sheet (Consolidated) Rs crore
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 23 23 26 31 31 31
Preference Capital - - - - - -
Reserves& Surplus 99 149 541 727 940 1,161
Shareholders Funds 122 172 567 758 970 1,192
Minority Interest - - - - - -
Total Loans 174 187 278 233 208 183
Deferred Tax Liability 8 9 4 4 4 4
Total Liabilities 304 368 849 995 1,182 1,379
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 270 294 337 486 568 632
Less: Acc. Depreciation 111 125 110 133 162 193
Net Block 159 168 227 353 406 439
Capital Work-in-Progress 40 72 2 15 23 25
Goodwill 89 96 209 209 209 209
Investments 0 0 8 8 8 8
Current Assets 278 352 733 820 1,013 1,229
Cash 47 43 378 339 471 657
Loans & Advances 46 67 127 153 169 177
Other 184 243 228 328 373 396
Current liabilities 262 323 330 409 475 531
Net Current Assets 16 29 403 412 538 698
Mis. Exp. not written off - 3 - - - -
Total Assets 304 368 849 995 1,182 1,379

Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) Rs crore
Profit before tax 159 187 209 420 494 556
Depreciation 14 18 19 24 28 32
Change in Working Capital (12) (22) (45) (47) 5 24
Interest / Dividend (Net) 10 13 (17) (25) (20) (18)
Direct taxes paid 24 28 37 80 101 118
Others 5 (2) (5) (1) 1 1
Cash Flow from Operations 151 165 125 290 407 477
Inc./ (Dec.) in Fixed Assets (129) (63) (156) (161) (90) (67)
Inc./ (Dec.) in Investments 1 - (8) - - -
Cash Flow from Investing (128) (63) (164) (161) (90) (67)
Issue of Equity - - 396 5 - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans 105 13 90 (45) (25) (25)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 97 109 120 153 180 216
Interest / Dividend (Net) 10 13 (8) (25) (20) (18)
Cash Flow from Financing (2) (108) 375 (168) (186) (223)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash 21 (5) 336 (39) 132 186
Opening Cash balances 26 47 43 378 339 471
Closing Cash balances 47 43 378 339 471 657

April 26, 2010 7


Key Ratios
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 68.4 57.6 53.2 27.0 23.4 21.0
P/CEPS 45.3 37.9 39.9 25.3 21.8 19.5
P/BV 55.1 39.2 13.5 12.1 9.5 7.7
Dividend yield (%) 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.7 2.0
EV/Sales 9.8 8.5 6.5 4.4 3.7 3.2
EV/EBITDA 51.8 43.4 44.5 22.3 18.3 15.8
EV / Total Assets 30.6 25.4 10.7 9.1 7.5 6.3
Per Share Data (Rs)
EPS (Basic) 5.9 7.1 6.7 11.0 12.7 14.2
EPS (fully diluted) 4.4 5.2 5.6 11.0 12.7 14.2
Cash EPS 6.6 7.9 7.5 11.8 13.7 15.2
DPS 3.8 4.1 4.0 4.3 5.0 6.0
Book Value 5.4 7.6 22.1 24.6 31.5 38.7
Returns (%)
RoCE (Pre-tax) 72.3 58.5 30.3 41.6 42.0 40.5
Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 158.4 98.9 76.3 110.6 97.9 103.7
RoE 143.5 108.5 46.9 51.3 45.4 40.5
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3
Inventory / Sales (days) 51.9 63.4 43.9 42.4 39.5 36.5
Receivables (days) 18.5 16.9 15.8 16.2 17.0 16.6
Payables (days) 96.7 96.2 76.5 65.9 65.0 64.6

April 26, 2010 8


Research Team Tel: 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com

DISCLAIMER

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this
document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to
arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved),
and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment.

Angel Securities Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are
inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company
may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as
opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals.

The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable source believed to be true,
and is for general guidance only. Angel Securities Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we
cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel
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Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section).

Disclosure of Interest Statement GCPL
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies’ Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel and its Group companies.

Address: Acme Plaza, ‘A’ Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059.
Tel : (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800

Angel Broking Ltd: BSE Sebi Regn No : INB 010996539 / CDSL Regn No: IN - DP - CDSL - 234 - 2004 / PMS Regn Code: PM/INP000001546 Angel Securities Ltd:BSE: INB010994639/INF010994639 NSE:
INB230994635/INF230994635 Membership numbers: BSE 028/NSE:09946
Angel Capital & Debt Market Ltd: INB 231279838 / NSE FNO: INF 231279838 / NSE Member code -12798 Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd: MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM /
CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

April 26, 2010 9

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