Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010

Supported by:

Global Trade Flow Index
Q2 - 2010

October 2010

AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Preview Window for Q3‟10
• Appendix

© 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 2

Global trade growth in Q2 2010 has slowed down and rose by 3.6% q-o-q
following a cautious optimism, while Asia-Pacific and Latin America continue
to rise on trade growth
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
TOTAL TRADE- TOP 23 COUNTRIES (BILLION USD)
Despite the slowing of trade recovery momentum,
trade volumes continued to grow in Q2 2010,
characterized by easing of the crisis-induced 2.000
2027 2016 13,0
credit crunch and the rebuilding of inventories in 1926
several economies 1803 1784
1698 1721
1631 1621 1638 8,0
Growth in the Eurozone picked up in Q2 2010
1.600 1506
with the recovery in construction output and
positive growth in its domestic consumption,
however its trade recovery faced a downside risk 1356 1391 3,0

as export volumes declined slightly in all major
European regions 1.200
-2,0

USA total trade increased majorly on account of
6.2% q-o-q rise in its imports with increase in both -7,0
oil and non-oil imports, further widening the trade 800
deficit in Q2 2010
-12,0
China‟s accelerating export growth rate of 23%
over Q1 2010 has continued to be a major 400
component supporting its economic growth, -17,0
outpacing US

Brazil‟s exports surged 7% q-o-q in Q2 2010 on 0 -22,0
account of steady growth in the agriculture Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10
industry and services sector, while Mexico Growth (%)
witnessed a 5.3% q-o-q growth in its exports of
goods because of the big jump in sale of Volume (billion USD)

automotive products to US
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Appendix


China replaced US at No.1 position, backed by its own domestic consumption
and a huge jump in industrial production along with accelerating exports
Trade related parameters Market related parameters
Trade Volume Domestic
RANK RANK Q-o-Q Growth Foreign Market Global Trade
Country Score Market Score
Q2-2010 Q1-2010 Score (B) Score (C) Index Score*
(A) (D)

China 1 2 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 16.00

United States 13.27
2 1 3.77 3.53 3.36 3.66

Germany 3 3 2.62 3.33 3.56 3.69 9.24

Japan 4 4 1.68 3.32 3.43 3.60 5.78

France 5 5 1.26 3.25 3.37 3.67 4.33

Netherlands 6 6 1.24 3.35 3.38 3.73 4.32

South Korea 7 9 1.05 3.57 3.51 3.73 3.80
United
8 7 1.07 3.35 3.32 3.70 3.68
Kingdom
Italy 9 8 1.04 3.35 3.45 3.65 3.62

Canada 10 11 0.92 3.53 3.29 3.67 3.21

Belgium 11 10 0.90 3.25 3.39 3.63 3.09

Mexico 12 14 0.70 3.56 3.43 3.71 2.50
Russian
13 12 0.72 3.22 3.44 3.45 2.43
Federation

Note : * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved

Brazil’s decelerating trade growth and India’s poor performance over the last
quarter led to their fall in their global ranking in Q2 2010
Trade related parameters Market related parameters
Domestic
RANK RANK Trade Volume Q-o-Q Growth Foreign Market Global Trade
Country Market Score
Q2-2010 Q1-2010 Score (A) Score (B) Score (C) Index Score*
(D)

India 14 13 0.65 3.40 3.21 3.43 2.19

Spain 15 15 0.61 3.16 3.30 3.66 2.07

Australia 16 17 0.48 3.76 3.92 3.64 1.81

Brazil 17 16 0.45 3.62 3.55 3.73 1.62

Poland 18 19 0.41 3.66 3.45 3.65 1.45

Switzerland 19 18 0.39 3.31 3.33 3.69 1.35

Sweden 20 20 0.35 3.47 3.47 3.67 1.23

Austria 21 21 0.34 3.26 3.45 3.65 1.16

Czech
22 22 0.28 3.25 3.36 3.69 0.95
Republic

Norway 23 23 0.24 3.21 3.27 3.70 0.81

Note : * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D))


Amongst Asian economies, China excelled with its accelerating exports; while
Germany emerged as the growth engine of the eurozone in Q2 2010

1st Quarter- 2010 2nd Quarter- 2010
China witnessed an accelerating 23%
X - Foreign Market Growth (%) 15,0 X - Foreign Market Growth (%) 15,0 q-o-q growth in foreign market trade,
Y - Domestic Market Growth (%) Y - Domestic Market Growth (%) constituting 32% of its GDP; backed by
Bubble – GDP Q1 2010 Bubble – GDP Q2 2010 governments‟ liberalization initiatives
10,0 10,0
and investments in infrastructure

5,0 Germany 5,0 China
India Germany
0,0 0,0
Japan Australia
-15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 -15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0
-5,0 US -5,0 US
Australia India Germany’s GDP increased by 2.2%
Russia
q-o-q in Q2 2010; supported by growth in
-10,0 India’s economy -10,0 exports (benefiting from the Asian
slumped as both export demand and the depreciation of the
and import growth -15,0 euro) and Investments (rise in
-15,0 construction spending and an increase in
contracted and despite
stimulus packages like investment in machinery & equipments)
-20,0 reduction in excise -20,0
duties and service tax,
its domestic
-25,0 consumption dropped
-25,0 Australia’s economy grew by 3.5% and a
by 5% q-o-q in Q2 2010 20% rise in exports were spurred by
soaring exports of iron ore and coals
-30,0 -30,0 alongside the robust trade linkages with
China Asia
-35,0 -35,0

* As per the revised Q1 2010 figures released by OECD * As per the Q2 2010 figures released by OECD

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2009, Tradingeconomics.com, Standardandpoors.com, Economic-research.bnpparibas.com.


AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Preview Window for Q3’10
• Appendix


While Global Trade is slowly mending and is expected to grow in the coming
quarter, the risk of a constrained growth remains as governments continue
withdrawal of stimulus
TOTAL TRADE (Q2 2010) - TOP 23 COUNTRIES (USD Bn)
RISKS TO WATCH OUT FOR
13,0
2016
2.000
8,0  Is growth going to be limited with
1784
1721 growing talks on monetary and fiscal
1621 1638 stimulus withdrawals?
1.600 1506 3,0
1356 1391
 With capacity utilization continuing to
-2,0 increase and inventory restocking
1.200
reaching a comfortable level in several
economies, is global trade going to
-7,0
weaken?
800

-12,0
 With high unemployment, a weak euro
400
and the possibility of international
-17,0 frictions and protectionist pressures,
are trade imbalances in the European
region going to rise?
0 -22,0
Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10E

Growth (%) Volume (billion USD)

If monetary and fiscal stimulus are taken away too soon, when the recovery in trade is still tentative - there is
a risk of falling back into recession and deflation.
Note: Q3 „10 growth estimation is based on trade flow data for July 2010; the actual growth rate might vary depending on total trade figures for the entire quarter.
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Trading Economics, 2010.

AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Appendix


AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Appendix
• Country Profiles
• The West-to-East Switch: BRIC
• Methodology & Base Data Files


Country profile – China
General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
Description Values China‟s low-cost manufacturing capabilities work well especially
for its import and export trade; the country is also well connected
GDP 1251.1 Billions USD to international markets through its vast port facilities

GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 10.94% Chinese accelerated export growth rate constituted a major
component supporting China's rapid economic growth of 10.9%
Population 133.86 Crore q-o-q in Q2 2010

GDP per Capita (2008) 6000 USD China witnessed a 19% growth in total trade in Q2 2010 over the
previous quarter, backed by governments‟ liberalization initiatives
RANK 1 and investments in infrastructure

Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market

300 40
12,000,000 40 30
10,000,000 30 250 15 20
20 200 10
8,000,000 10
150 0 0
6,000,000 0 -10
4,000,000 -10 100 -20
-15
-20 50 -30
2,000,000 -30 -40
0 -40 0 -30
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2-2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%)
Value (billions Yuan) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Tradingeconomics.com.


Country profile – United States
Description Values One of the biggest economies in the world, the US has good
quality infrastructure, quality transport infrastructure and efficient
GDP 3643.75 Billions USD custom administration
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 0.89 % The US economic growth slowed in Q2 with less than 1% GDP
growth over Q1, as companies invested heavily in equipment
Population 30.72 Crore from abroad and the pace of consumer spending eased, raising
concerns about the recovery in the rest of 2010
GDP per Capita (2008) 35,645 USD
Though International trade increased in volume, its growth has
RANK 2 slowed down and imports continue to outpace exports leading to
sustained trade deficits

10
3,700,000 1.5 350
300 20 5
3,650,000 1.0
250 0
3,600,000 0.5 5
200
3,550,000 0.0 -5
150
3,500,000 -0.5 100 -10 -10
3,450,000 -1.0 50
-15
0 -25
3,400,000 -1.5 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3-2 Q4- Q1- Q2-
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

Value (billions USD) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Reuters.com, Market-melange.com, BEA.gov.


Country profile – Germany
Description Values
Germany‟s GDP increased by 2.2% q-o-q in Q2 2010;
GDP 794.14 Billions USD
supported by growth in exports and because of an increase in
investment in machinery and equipment & rise in construction
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.26 %
spending
Population 8.23 Crore Germany is the world's second-biggest exporter after China
and in Q2 2010, its export of goods & services grew by 9.4%
GDP per Capita (2008) 35400 USD over previous quarter, benefiting from the Asian demand and
the depreciation of the euro
RANK 3


630,000 3 300 15

620,000 2 250 10
15
610,000 1 200 5
0 0 0
600,000 150
-1 -5
590,000 -2 100
-15
-10
580,000 -3 50
-15
570,000 -4 0 -30
Q2-2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

Value (billions Euro) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Chinapost.com, Economic-research.bnpparibas.com.


Country profile – Japan
Description Values
Japan‟s economy is highly efficient and competitive in areas
GDP 1300.47 Billions USD linked to international trade, but productivity is far lower in
protected areas such as agriculture, distribution, and services.
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -0.63 %
In Q2, Japan‟s economy has reduced by 0.63% due to deflation
Population 12.71 Crore and a rise in the yen
With the reduction in its exports, its total trade also come down
GDP per Capita (2008) 34000 USD
by 1% q-o-q thus threatening an expected export-reliant recovery
RANK 4


140 20
128,000,000 2
120 15 10
126,000,000 1
124,000,000 100 0
122,000,000 0 0
80 -10
120,000,000 -1 60 -20
118,000,000 -2 -15
40
116,000,000 -30
-3 20
114,000,000 -40
112,000,000 -4 0 -30
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010


Value (billions Yen) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Reuters.com, News.bbc.co.uk ,”Japan‟s economy”, 2010.


Country profile – France
Description Values
An increase in consumer spending, a rise in inventories and a
GDP 619.28 Billions USD rebound in business investment helped Eurozone's second
largest economy to expand by 1% q-o-q in Q2 2010
With revival of private sector investment, French domestic
Population 6.41 Crore
demand showed strength in Q2 although its net trade went
GDP per Capita (2008) 33200 USD down due to an increase in energy imports and a drop in car
exports
RANK 5


140 10
495,000 2
120 15
5
490,000 1
100
485,000 1 0 0
80
480,000 0 60 -5
475,000 -1 40 -15
-10
470,000 -1 20
-15
465,000 -2 0 -30
Q2-2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010


Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Economic-research.credit-agricole.com, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


Country profile – The Netherlands
Description Values The Netherlands which depends heavily on foreign trade owns an
outstanding transport Infrastructure, with Rotterdam being one of
GDP 189.08 Billions USD the world‟s best seaports, enhancing the country‟s connectivity to
rest of the world
The Dutch economy grew strongly in the second quarter of 2010
Population 1.67 Crore mainly through increased exports, though the q-o-q growth of
export of goods & services was less as compared to Q1 2010
Growth in consumption and investment showed an increase over
RANK 6 the previous quarter


152,000 3 120 10
150,000 2 15
100 5
148,000 1 80
146,000 0 0
60 0
144,000 -1
142,000 -2 40 -15 -5
140,000 -3 20
-10
138,000 -4 0 -30
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-2 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 010 2008 2008 2008 009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010



Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Nfia.co.uk, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


Country profile – South Korea
Description Values

GDP 248.94 Billions USD Korean economy grew 2% q-o-q during the second quarter of
2010 due to robust investments, fiscal stimulus and the export
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.10 % boost from inventory restocking

4.85 Crore Even when the domestic market growth slowed down, facility
Population
investment continue to improve and foreign market grew by
GDP per Capita (2008) 27600 USD approximately 8% making it the world's ninth-largest exporter

RANK 7


300,000,000 6 100 15
290,000,000 15
4 80 10
280,000,000
270,000,000 2 60 5
0
260,000,000 0 40 0
250,000,000 -15
-2 20 -5
240,000,000
230,000,000 -4 0 -30 -10 Q2-
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
Q2-20Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
08 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010


Value (billions Won) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Oecdobserver.org, “Korea‟s economy 2010”, Roubini.com, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


Country profile – United Kingdom
Description Values

465.62 Billions USD The UK economy continued to expand over the second quarter
GDP
of 2010 as GDP rose by 1.7%; the increase in output was
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.74 % mainly due to increases in business services and Finance and
construction sector
With hardly any change in its total trade, UK „s trade deficit
GDP per Capita (2008) 46900 USD remained quite high

RANK 8


370,000 3 120 10
365,000 2 15
100 5
360,000 1
355,000 80
0 0
60 0
350,000
-1
345,000 40
-2 -15 -5
340,000
335,000 -3 20
-10
330,000 -4 0 -30
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

Value (billions GBP) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Financemarkets.co.uk , Euronews.net, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


Country profile – Italy
Description Values
Italy‟s GDP rose by 1.1% in Q2 2010, mainly driven by exports,
GDP 493.17 Billions USD inventories and investment, especially in machinery, while
domestic demand remained subdued
Italy has strong business clusters, producing goods high in
value chain using latest processes & technology, but the
31300 USD structural weaknesses in the economy increases business costs
GDP per Capita (2008)
and undermines investor confidence, making the strength of
RANK 9 recovery in 2010 a little uncertain


400,000 2 120 30 10
395,000 100 5
1
390,000 15
80 0
385,000 0
60 0
380,000 -5
-1
375,000 40
-15 -10
-2 20
370,000
-15
365,000 -3 0 -30
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3-2 Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010



Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Alibaba.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


Country profile – Canada
Description Values Canada‟s economy growth slowed as GDP grew by just 0.7%
due to weaker spending in the retail and wholesale sectors and
GDP 391.61 Billions USD a downturn in the housing market

GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 0.71 % Canada has high availability & quality of transport infrastructure
as well as highly efficient markets, however it is highly
dependent on the US as a market, with 3/4th of its exports to US
Canadian exports to US fell in Q2 and its trade deficit widened
RANK 10 with increase in its import of petroleum and automobiles


420,000 3 100 15 10

410,000 2 10 5
80
1 5 0
400,000 0 0
60
-5 -5
390,000 -1
-2 40 -10 -10
380,000
-3 -15 -15
370,000 20
-4 -20
-20
360,000 -5 0 -25
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-201
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 0
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010


Value (billions Canadian Dollar) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Tradingeconomics.com, Roubini.com.


Country profile – Belgium
Description Values
Belgium's economy resumed growth in the second quarter
GDP 111.38 Billions USD with boost from increase in households private consumption
expenditure
Exports equal around two thirds of its GDP and 80% of Belgium's
Population 1.04 Crore trade is with fellow EU member states
With decrease in both Export and Import of goods, its total trade
RANK 11 dropped by 3% q-o-q in Q2 2010


88,000 2 100 10
87,000 15
1 80 5
86,000
85,000 0 60 0 0
84,000 -1 40 -5
83,000 -15
-2 20 -10
82,000
81,000 -3 0 -30 -15 Q2-
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010



Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Euromonitor.com, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010 .


Country profile – Mexico
Description Values
Mexico has an export-oriented economy, more than 90% of
GDP 256.46 Billions USD Mexican trade is under free trade agreements (FTAs) with more
than 40 countries
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.18 % Mexico‟s economy rose by 2.18% due to an increase in services
and a climb in the manufacturing and agricultural sector
Mexico‟s domestic and foreign market showed upward trend in
GDP per Capita (2008) 14200 USD comparison with its Q1 2010 results
Its exports of goods rose to 5.3% because of a big jump in its
RANK 12
sales of automotive products to the United States


3,300,000 4 60 30 15

3,200,000 50 10
2 15
3,100,000 40 5
3,000,000 0 30 0
0
2,900,000 20
-2 -15 -5
2,800,000 10
-10
2,700,000 -4 0 -30
Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3-2 Q4- Q1- Q2-
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010


Value (billions Peso) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Businessweek.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


Country profile – Russian Federation
Description Values
Russian GDP reduced by a sharper 7% in the second quarter of
2010 due to waning of crisis stimulus spending and continuing
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -7.73 % low demand
Russia‟s total trade volume reduced by 4% due to major
Population 14 Crore reduction in its export of goods, hit by a slump in world demand,
weaker prices for its oil and commodity exports

RANK 13


11,500,000 10 80 20 20

11,000,000 5 10 10
60
10,500,000 0 0
0
10,000,000 40 -10
-10
-5
9,500,000 -20
20 -20
9,000,000 -10 -30
-30
8,500,000 -15 0 -40
Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010


Value (billions Rouble) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Reuters.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


Country profile – India
Description Values
India‟s GDP fell by 6% q-o-q as both export and import growth
GDP 352.85 Billions USD contracted and in spite of strong supply, domestic
consumption dropped to 5% in Q2 2010 over the previous
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -6 %
quarter
Population 116.61 Crore Although India‟s economy slumped in Q2, on a yearly basis it
expanded by 9% with services as the major source of
GDP per Capita (2008) 2900 USD economic growth, accounting for more than half of India's
output further lifted by robust activity in manufacturing
RANK 14


20,000,000 10 50 30 20
15
15,000,000 5 40
15 10
30 5
10,000,000 0 0
20 0
5,000,000 -5 -15 -5
10
-10
0 -10 0 -30 -15
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-2 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 010 2008 2008 2008 009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010


Value (billions Rupees) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


Country profile – Spain
Description Values
The Spanish economy rose by just 0.16% weighed down by
GDP 336.70 Billions USD sluggish private consumption, still falling construction
investment and erratic business capital spending as the
government battles to trim a bloated budget
With EU accounting for 70 percent of Spain's exports, the slight
GDP per Capita (2008) 34700 USD upturn in eurozone along with a weak euro translates into
relatively lesser benefit for spain as compared to other
RANK 15 European economies


275,000 1 70 30 10

60 5
1
270,000 50 15
0 0
40
265,000 0
30 -5
-1
260,000 20 -15 -10
-1
10
-15
255,000 -2 0 -30
Q2-20Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
08 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010



Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Euronews.net, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


Country profile – Australia
Description Values Australia has transparent border administration and transport but
its regulatory environment promotes intense domestic competition
GDP 301.12 Billions USD along with high domestic and foreign market barriers
The economy looked more balanced with a 3.6% q-o-q growth;
Population 2.13 Crore with the private sector increasingly taking over the government
stimulus as the engine of growth
Australia‟s 20% q-o-q growth in export of goods was spurred by
RANK 16 soaring exports of iron ore & coal; coupled with robust trade with
Asia


360,000 5 40 30 30
4 20
340,000
3 30 15
320,000 2 10
1 20 0
0
300,000 0
-1 10 -15 -10
280,000
-2
-20
260,000 -3 0 -30
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2-2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010


Value (billions Dollar) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Forexyard.com, World Economic Forum, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


Country profile – Brazil
Description Values
Brazil economy continue to grow steadily and its GDP grew by
GDP 499.79 Billions USD 3.3% due to increase in its export and domestic consumption
though cyclical forces and controlled measures to withdraw
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 3.36 % monetary stimulus slowed the rates

19.87 Crore Household spending growth continued to ease and investment
Population
lost momentum although government consumption rose sharply
10200 USD as spending swelled ahead of elections in next quarter
GDP per Capita (2008)
Brazil exports surged due to steady growth in the agriculture
RANK 17
industry and services sector


1,000,000 8 40 30 30
6 20
800,000 10
4 30 15
600,000 2 0
0 20 0 -10
400,000 -2 -20
-4 10 -15
200,000 -30
-6
-40
0 -8 0 -30
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-2 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 010 2008 2008 2008 009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010


Value (billions Real) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Bloomberg.com, Prnewswire.com, XE.com, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


Country profile – Poland
Description Values

GDP 112.17 Billions USD The Polish economy expanded at a faster pace in Q2 2010 as
compared to Q1 led by investment, consumer spending,
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.49 % construction and increase in exports

Population 3.85 Crore The total trade volume rose by 9% in comparison with Q1 2010
supported by a sharp rise in its export of goods & services

RANK 18


360,000 2 40 30 8
350,000 6
340,000 2 30 15
4
330,000
1 20 0
320,000 2
310,000 1 10 -15 0
300,000
-2
290,000 0 0 -30
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010


Value (billions Poland) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, mt5.com, Forexyard.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


Country profile – Switzerland
Description Values

GDP 124.23 Billions USD Switzerland has stable modern market economy with low
unemployment, a highly skilled labor force, and a per capita
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.17 % GDP among the highest in the world

Population 0.76 Crore The Swiss economy continued its growth in the second quarter
of 2010, expanding at 1.2% as companies' investment
GDP per Capita (2008) 41800 USD spending fuelled growth and both exports and consumer
spending rose
RANK 19


138,000 3 40 30 10

2 5
136,000 30 15
1
20 0 0
134,000 0
-1 -5
132,000 10 -15
-2
-10
130,000 -3 0 -30
Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010


Value (billions Franc) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, World Economic Forum, “Global Enabling Trade”, 2009, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


Country profile – Sweden
Description Values

GDP 108.07 Billions USD Swedish economy grew by 1.8% in Q2 2010 due to increase in
its domestic demand, consumer spending, inventory
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.84 % investments and declining unemployment

Population 0.91 Crore Its export of goods & services, which make up about half of
Sweden‟s output, expanded by 6% on q-o-q basis, as the
GDP per Capita (2008) 38100 USD global demand pushed production
RANK 20


840,000 3 35 30 10

820,000 2 30
15 5
25
800,000 1
20 0
780,000 0 0
15
760,000 -1 -5
10 -15
740,000 -2 5
-10
720,000 -3 0 -30
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3-2 Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010


Value (billions Krona) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Iesingapore.gov.sg , Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


Country profile – Austria
Description Values
Austria's economy grew 1.7% in Q2; Industrial production rose
GDP 89.92 Billions USD strongly from the previous year and the capacity utilization rate
was again over the long- term average, giving significant push
GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.73 % to its economy in the second quarter

Population 0.82 Crore Exports and investment were the biggest factors behind the
rise; its exports of goods & services rose by 6% because of the
rising demand from main export destination Germany which
RANK 21 accounts for 1/3rd of its total exports


72,000 2 40 30 10

71,000 5
1 30 15
70,000
20 0 0
69,000 0
68,000 -5
-1 10 -15
67,000
-10
66,000 -2 0 -30
Q2- Q3-2 Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010



Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. XE.com, Chinadaily.com.cn, Austrian Raiffeisen Banking Group, “Country Reports: Austria”, 2010.


Country profile – Czech Republic
Description Values Inventory replenishment drove the Czech economic upturn in
the second quarter of 2010

GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.21 % The economy returned to positive growth in Q2 2010 on
account of reviving household consumption and the
Population 1.02 Crore unexpectedly fast growth spurt in Germany, the country‟s main
trading partner
Being a highly open economy as well as highly export-oriented,
RANK 22 the economy‟s fate is tied to that of the Eurozone


940,000 2 30 30 6
4
930,000 1 25
15 2
920,000 20
0 0
910,000 15 0 -2
-1
900,000 10 -4
-15
890,000 -2 5 -6
-8
880,000 -3 0 -30
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3-2 Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-20 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 09 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 009 2009 2010 2010


Value (billions Koruna) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Roubini.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


Country profile – Norway
Description Values
The country is highly dependent on the petroleum sector, which
accounts for nearly half of its exports
GDP grew by 1% q-o-q in Q2 2010, mostly driven by private
Population 0.47 Crore sector spending

GDP per Capita (2008) 59300 USD Economic output was low; struggling due to sluggish external
demand and weak competitiveness
RANK 23


660,000 6 30 30 15

640,000 25 10
4
15 5
620,000 20
2
15 0 0
600,000
0 -5
580,000 10
-15 -10
560,000 -2 5
-15
540,000 -4 0 -30
Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010


Value (billions Kroner) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.


AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Appendix


While Brazil’s foreign trade levels have increased, its growth rate
in export of goods has slowed to 50% of its growth last quarter

Brazil GDP growth – Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market

Brazil‟s foreign trade has been approx.
9-17% of its domestic consumption
At current growth over the past decade
levels, Brazil has
crossed 2023 GDP
levels as per
projections

Brazil’s Top 10 Trading Partner Countries

Q2 2009 Country Q2 2010
36% USA 36%  US, Germany and
Japan represents more
15% Germany 16%
than 50% of Brazil's
9% Japan 9%
Korea
total trade
7% 7%
6% France 6%
5% Netherlands 5%
 Change in economic
Mexico environment / trade
5% 5%
policies of top trading
4% Spain 4%
partners may impact
5% UK 4%
Brazil‟s trade growth
3% Canada 4%

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, “Dreaming With BRICs”, 2003.


Russia’s total trade volume reduced by 4% q-o-q due to a major
reduction in its export of goods, hit by weaker prices for its oil
and commodity exports

Russia GDP growth – Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market

Russia‟s foreign trade which was
approx. half of its domestic consumption
in 2000, is now 1/4th of the domestic
 At current growth levels, consumption and has gradually
Russia has crossed 2011 decreased over the past decade
GDP levels as per
projections
 Russia was worst hit from
crisis amongst the BRIC
nations

Russia’s Top 10 Trading Partner Countries

Q2 2009 Q2 2010  Germany alone constitutes
Country
28% Germany 27% 1/4th of Russia‟s total trade
13% 12% and more than 3/4th of its
USA
9% Netherlands 9%
exports consisting of oil,
11% Turkey 9%
natural gas, metals & timber
10% France 9%
6% Japan 8%  Change in trade policies of
4% Korea 6%
European Union may impact
5%
Russia‟s trade growth
UK 5%
4% Spain 4%
because of its high
3% Czech 4%
dependence on European
Republic economies


In Q2 2010, India’s growth of export of goods & services fell sharply
because of poor performance in certain service sectors

India GDP growth – Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market

India‟s foreign trade ration has been
gradually increasing and has reached
approx. 1/4th of its domestic
consumption over the past decade

At current growth
levels, India has
crossed 2013 GDP
levels as per
projections

India’s Top 10 Trading Partner Countries

Q2 2009 Country Q2 2010
28% USA 31%  US alone constitutes 1/3th
of India‟s total trade
13% Germany 11%
followed by Germany and
11% Australia 10%
Korea
Australia
9% 10%
9% UK 8%
7% Japan 8.%
 Gems and jewelry
France constituted the single
6% 5%
largest export item,
4% Netherlands 3%
accounting for 16% of
3% Spain 3%
exports
2% Turkey 3%



China’s accelerated export growth rate constituted a major
component supporting China's rapid economic growth in Q2 2010

China GDP growth – Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market

China‟s foreign trade has been
approx. 7-11% of its domestic
consumption over the past decade

At current growth
levels, China has
crossed 2015 GDP
levels as per
projections

China’s Top 10 Trading Partner Countries

Q1 2009 Country Q1 2010
USA  US, Japan and Korea
30% 29%
represent more than
19% Japan 20% 50% of China's total
12% Korea 13% trade
10% Germany 11%
5% Australia 6%  Change in economic
4% France 4% environment / trade
4% Canada
3% policies of top trading
4% UK 3% partners may impact
3% Mexico 3% China‟s trade growth
3% Netherlands 3%



AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Appendix


Appendix - Global Trade Index – Methodology and Data Sheets
Methodology : Two pronged approach encompassing trade and market related parameters is used to calculate the Index Base Data Files

Trade related parameters

Market related parameters

Global Trade Index


Thank you very much for your attention!

Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010

More Related Content

What's hot (7)

Viewers also liked (7)

Similar to Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010 (20)

More from Capgemini (20)

Recently uploaded (20)

Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010