Graphical inference

“The human understanding, on account of its
own nature, readily supposes a greater order
and uniformity in things than it ﬁnds. And ...
it devises parallels and correspondences and
relations which are not there.”
—Francis Bacon, 1620
Wednesday, 10 November 2010

“The human understanding, on account of its
own nature, readily supposes a greater order
and uniformity in things than it ﬁnds. And ...
it devises parallels and correspondences and
relations which are not there.”
—Francis Bacon, 1620
Is what we see reallythere?

October 2010
Hadley Wickham, Dianne Cook,
Heike Hofmann, Andreas Buja
Graphical inference
for infovis

Which one of these plots is not like the others?
Which of these plots just doesn’t belong?

7 of those plots were plots of random
(null) data. 1 plot was the real data.
If you correctly picked the true
plot from the null plots then we
have evidence that it really is
different.
In fact, we have rigorous statistical
evidence that there is a difference, just
using Sesame Street skills!

1. The statistical justice system
2. Line up protocol
3. Rorschach protocol
4. Future work

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/joegratz/117048243
Hypothesis testing?

http://www.ﬂickr.com/photos/joegratz/117048243
The statistical justice system
Hypothesis testing?

Ho: null hypothesis
Ha: alternative hypothesis
Defence
Prosecution

Ho: null hypothesis
Defence
Prosecution
Null distribution Innocents

Ho: null hypothesis
Defence
Prosecution
Reject the null
Fail to reject the null
Guilty
Not guilty

Ho: null hypothesis
Defence
Prosecution
Reject the null
Fail to reject the null
Guilty
Not guilty
p-value Probability that a truly
innocent dataset
would look as guilty
as the suspect

Line up

believe believe
case
caseclosely
closely descendants
descendants few few
long long modified
modified variations
variations very
very view view
believe believe
case
caseclosely
closely descendants
descendants few few
long long modified
modified variations
variations very
very view view
believe believe
case
caseclosely
closely descendants
descendants few few
long long modified
modified variations
variations very
very view view
believe believe
case
caseclosely
closely descendants
descendants few few
long long modified
modified variations
variations very
very view view
believe believe
case
caseclosely
closely descendants
descendants few few
long long modified
modified variations
variations very
very view view
Five tag clouds of selected words from the 1st (red) and 6th (blue)
editions of Darwin’s “Origin of Species”. Four of the tag clouds were
generated under the null hypothesis of no difference between editions,
and one is the true data. Can you spot it?

Protocol
Generate n-1 decoys
(null datasets)
Plot the decoys + the real data
(randomly positioned)
Show to an impartial observer.
Can they spot the real data?
If so, you have evidence for true difference
(p-value = 1/n)

E. L. Scott, C. D. Shane, and M. D. Swanson. Comparison of the synthetic and actual distribution of galaxies on a
photographic plate. Astrophysical Journal, 119:91–112, Jan. 1954.

A. M. Noll. Human or machine: A subjective comparison of Piet Mondrian’s “composition with lines” (1917) and a computer-
generated picture. The Psychological Record, 16:1–10, 1966.

vs. classical tests
Of course, if we know what we’re looking
for, we can always develop an algorithm
or numerical test.
The advantage of visual inference is that
works for very general tasks, including
when you don’t know exactly what you’re
looking for.

ower of the test
!
Power
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
sigma = 12
!15 !10 !5 0 5 10 15
sigma = 5
!15 !10 !5 0 5 10 15
samplesize=100samplesize=300
power_curve
Theoretical test
Visual test
lower_CL
upper_CL
Recent work shows that power only
a little worse than classical test

Plot Task
Choropleth
map
Is there a spatial trend?
Treemap
Is the distribution in higher
level categories the same?
Scatterplot
Are the two variables
independent?
Time series
Is there a trend in mean or
variability?

Once we’ve seen the plot,
we’re no longer impartial

Code
# Support package written in R
# http://github.com/ggobi/nullabor
# Provides reference implementation of ideas
library(nullabor)
library(ggplot2)
qplot(angle * 180 / pi, r, data = threept) %+%
lineup(null_model(r ~ poly(angle, 2)), n = 10) +
facet_wrap(~ .sample, ncol = 5)

Rorschach

Rorschach
We’re surprisingly bad at appreciating the
amount of variation in random data.
Showing only null plots is a good way to
calibrate our intuition.
We also plan on using these plots as an
empirical tool to understand what features
people pick up on. Anecdotally,
undergrads focus too much on outliers

result
count
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
1
4
7
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
2
5
8
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
3
6
9
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Future work

Future work
How can visual inference be integrated
into visualisation software at a
fundamental level?
How does training impact results? How do
novices vs. experts differ?
What patterns do people pick up on?
What are the alternatives that people
respond to?

Questions?

This work is licensed under the Creative
Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 3.0 United
States License. To view a copy of this license,
visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/
3.0/us/ or send a letter to Creative Commons,
171 Second Street, Suite 300, San Francisco,
California, 94105, USA.

Graphical inference

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