HSR (Phase1 Report) Executive Summary
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This executive summary outlines the key findings of Phase 1 of the High Speed Rail Study: - The estimated cost of a high-speed rail network in Australia is between $61-108 billion, depending on the corridors chosen. - Three coastal corridors and two inland corridors between Brisbane, Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne were shortlisted for further analysis. - Potential station locations in major cities include Roma Street and South Bank in Brisbane, Central Station and Parramatta in Sydney, and Southern Cross and North Melbourne in Melbourne. - Patronage is expected to be highest for stations located closest to the central business districts of each city.
HSR (Phase1 Report) Executive Summary
- 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY HIGH SPEED RAIL STUDY PHASE 1 JULY 2011
- 2. HIGH SPEED RAIL STUDY – PHASE 1 July 2011 Prepared for Department of Infrastructure and Transport Prepared by AECOM Australia Pty Ltd Level 21, 420 George Street, Sydney NSW 2000, PO Box Q410, QVB Post Office NSW 1230, Australia T +61 2 8934 0000 F +61 2 8934 0001 www.aecom.com ABN 20 093 846 925 In association with GRIMSHAW Architects, KPMG and SKM AECOM in Australia and New Zealand is certified to the latest version of ISO9001 and ISO14001. © AECOM Australia Pty Ltd (AECOM). All rights reserved. In accordance with the east coast high speed rail (HSR) study terms of reference, AECOM has prepared this report (Report). In preparing this Report, AECOM established cost estimates for the sole purpose of comparing options for potential corridors and stations, in order to provide a short list of options. The cost estimates given in this Report must not be used for assessing the financial viability of HSR. No guarantee or warranty is made by AECOM in relation to the estimated values or results contained in this Report. The estimates, assumptions and other information has been developed by AECOM from its independent research effort, general knowledge of the industry and consultations with many third parties (Information Providers) to produce the Report and arrive at its conclusions. AECOM has not verified information provided by Information Providers (unless specifically noted otherwise) and we assume no responsibility and make no representations with respect to the adequacy, accuracy or completeness of such information. No responsibility is assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by Information Providers including, without limitation, inaccuracies in any other data source whether provided in writing or orally used in preparing or presenting the Report. In addition, the Report is based upon information that was obtained on or before the date in which the Report was prepared. Circumstances and events may occur following the date on which such information was obtained that are beyond our control and which may affect the findings or projections contained in the Report. More specifically, AECOM has no control over the cost of labour, materials, equipment or services furnished by others, nor has it control over contractors’ methods for determining prices, competitive bidding or market conditions which may apply now or in the future. We may not be held responsible for such circumstances or events and specifically disclaim any responsibility therefore. AECOM has prepared this document for the sole use of the Client and for a specific purpose, each as expressly stated in the document. No other party should rely on this document without the prior written consent of AECOM. AECOM undertakes no duty, nor accepts any responsibility, to any third party who may rely upon or use this document. This document has been prepared based on the Client’s description of its requirements and AECOM’s experience, having regard to assumptions that AECOM can reasonably be expected to make in accordance with sound professional principles. AECOM may also have relied upon information provided by the Client and other third parties to prepare this document, some of which may not have been verified. Subject to the above conditions, this document may be transmitted, reproduced or disseminated only in its entirety.
- 5. High Speed Rail Study – Phase 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- 6. ii AECOM | Grimshaw | KPMG | SKM Executive summary • The Hume Highway corridor between Canberra and A strategic study on the implementation of a High Speed Melbourne, via Riverina, Murray, and with a potential Rail (HSR) network on the east coast of Australia (the route option via the Goulburn Valley. study) was announced by the Minister for Infrastructure and Transport, the Hon. Anthony Albanese MP, on 5 These short-listed corridors lie within the green band August 2010. shown in the following map. It is recommended that this The study is being conducted in two phases. Phase green band define the study area for phase 2. 1, undertaken between January and June 2011, has The short-listed corridors broadly: assessed the likely range of costs, identified potential corridors and stations, estimated the potential future • Follow the alignment of the existing long-distance rail market demand for HSR, and considered potential social network. and regional development impacts of a HSR network. • Provide access to larger regional towns and cities along Phase 1 has not examined the financial feasibility of coastal New South Wales (NSW) and inland Victoria HSR on the east coast of Australia and therefore does enhancing the accessibility of these areas. not include a benefit versus cost analysis. Phase 2 will • Have lower capital costs for infrastructure and land examine the financial feasibility of HSR, identify an acquisition than other options. optimum route alignment, refine patronage and cost • Have the highest net benefits of those options estimates and investigate potential financing options. examined. This report provides the outcomes of phase 1. • Minimise potential impacts on national parks and other sensitive land uses. Cost estimates and risk The risk-adjusted cost estimate for the implementation Urban access in major metropolitan areas would be of an overall HSR network would fall within the range of predominantly by tunnel. Within urban areas, the combined $61 billion to $108 billion (in $2011) depending upon the construction and land costs involved in tunnelling are combination of corridors selected, reflecting the level of comparable with those of surface alignments and would confidence for this phase of the study. permit higher operating speeds and reduce environmental impact. The risk-adjusted cost estimates include land acquisition, stations and city access, maintenance and stabling Regulatory frameworks exist to protect infrastructure facilities, power infrastructure, civil and rail infrastructure corridors in each state and territory, although there are and IT and ticketing systems. They exclude client planning differences between approaches. and procurement management costs, which are likely to Stations be in the order of 10 to 15 per cent of the estimate. They also exclude operating costs (including a leasing cost for The following city centre station locations were short-listed the rolling stock). for further analysis in phase 2: The land cost component for the HSR network is • Roma Street Station and South Bank in Brisbane. approximately $6 billion (in $2011). Acquiring, or otherwise • Central Station, Eveleigh, Homebush and Parramatta preserving, the corridor in the short-term could reduce in Sydney. future costs by reducing the likelihood of additional tunnels • Southern Cross Station and North Melbourne in as urban areas grow and preferred corridors become Melbourne. unavailable. • Civic and Canberra Airport in Canberra. International experience suggests it is unrealistic to expect the capital cost of a HSR network to be recovered. Patronage demand analysis suggests that central business district (CBD) locations would be the major trip generator Corridors and attractor in each city. Stations closest to the CBD would Corridors short-listed for further analysis in phase 2 were: generate the most demand for a HSR network. • Coastal corridors between Brisbane and Newcastle, Peripheral stations were considered for Brisbane, Sydney with potential variations around coastal cities and the and Melbourne, typically located towards the urban Gold Coast. boundary where there is good access to the arterial • The Central Coast corridor between Newcastle and road network. Zones in which these stations should Sydney. be considered are proposed, with the final location of • The Hume Highway and Princes Highway corridors periphery stations subject to the optimum alignment of between Sydney and Canberra, via Southern Highlands. HSR tunnels, availability of appropriate sites and potential transport connections. High Speed Rail Study – Phase 1
- 7. AECOM | Grimshaw | KPMG | SKM iii Boundary of short-listed corridors Toowoomba Brisbane Beaudesert Gold Coast Far North Coast Moree Northern Rivers New England Armidale Mid North Coast Dubbo Newcastle Central Coast Southern Highlands Sydney Illawarra Riverina Canberra Goulburn Murray Cooma Valley Melbourne Orbost N Key: Study areaKey: for phase 1 City Stations City stations Parkway Stations Parkway stations State Border State border Passenger railRail Existing Boundary of short- Peripheral Stations Peripheral stations Regional Stations Regional stations Topography Topography Road Road listed corridors Towns Sydney and Melbourne airports have not been short-listed HSR demand is relatively insensitive to the precise location because initial patronage demand forecasts indicate most of regional stations if appropriate access is provided HSR demand would be for travel to the CBDs, rather than to between the nearest cities or towns and the HSR station. airports. Further analysis has been recommended in phase 2 to confirm assumptions made in phase 1 regarding demand for access to air services. The following regional areas have sufficient size and demand to warrant a regional or parkway HSR station, although other regional station opportunities may exist: • Brisbane to Newcastle: Gold Coast, Far North Coast, Northern Rivers, Mid North Coast • Newcastle to Sydney: Central Coast • Sydney to Canberra: Southern Highlands, Illawarra • Canberra to Melbourne: Riverina, Murray, Goulburn Valley High Speed Rail Study – Phase 1
- 8. iv AECOM | Grimshaw | KPMG | SKM Cost estimates and risk for short-listed corridors The risk-adjusted cost estimates of the individual short-listed corridors are presented below. The risk-adjusted cost estimates are expressed in terms of P10 to P90, derived from probabilistic risk analysis. The P10, P50 and P90 estimates have a 10 per cent, 50 per cent and 90 per cent chance of not being exceeded respectively. Segment Corridor name Length Stations Cost estimate adjusted for (km) (no.) risk ($2011 billion)1 P10 P50 P90 Brisbane to Newcastle 3 Direct Corridor (via Beaudesert) 676 4 $ 21.7 $ 28.9 $ 35.9 3a Direct Corridor (via Gold Coast) 701 5 $ 24.9 $32.6 $ 40.6 4 Coastal Corridor (via Beaudesert) 701 7 $ 20.0 $ 23.8 $ 27.8 5 Coastal Corridor (via Gold Coast) 706 8 $ 22.2 $ 26.9 $ 31.7 Newcastle to Sydney 8 Central Coast Corridor 120 4 $ 10.7 $ 14.2 $ 17.9 Sydney to Canberra 11 Hume Highway Corridor (via Southern 271 4 $ 10.9 $ 15.1 $ 19.2 Highlands) 12 Princes Highway Corridor (via 290 5 $ 15.0 $ 19.8 $ 24.5 Wollongong and Southern Highlands) Canberra to Melbourne 14a Hume Highway Corridor (via Wagga 552 4 $ 19.5 $ 22.4 $ 25.6 Wagga and Albury-Wodonga) Cost estimates for segments of an HSR network are summarised in the following graphic. 11 Risk-adjusted cost estimate ranges for study area segments, P10 to P90 ($2011)1 Brisbane 20km $20.0 billion to $40.6 billion Newcastle 20km $10.7 billion to $17.9 billion Sydney 10km $10.9 billion to $24.5 billion Canberra Key: Brisbane to Newcastle Newcastle to Sydney $19.5 billion to $25.6 billion Sydney to Canberra Canberra to Melbourne CBD stations 20km Newcastle station Melbourne Assumed urban boundary for the purpose of the phase 1 study $10.7b to $17.9b P10 to P90 cost estimate Note: The figure above is schematic only and is not to scale. 1 Combining risk adjusted cost estimates would affect the risk profile – the P10 estimate of a combination of route segments has a lower probability than the sum of the P10 estimates of the individual segments. High Speed Rail Study – Phase 1
- 9. AECOM | Grimshaw | KPMG | SKM v Forecast patronage demand The population of the east coast states and territory of Travel on HSR between Newcastle, the Central Coast Australia is forecast to increase from 18 million people in and Sydney is predicted to be approximately 15 million 2011 to 28 million people by 2056. Over 100 million long- trips in 2036, of which approximately five million would distance trips are made on the east coast of Australia each be commuting trips. These forecasts assume HSR fares year, and this is forecast to grow to 264 million long-distance between Newcastle and Sydney would be $16.50 for trips over the next 45 years. commuters, $30 for non-business travellers and $60 for business travellers (one-way in 2011 dollars). Between On the basis of demographic forecasts, assumed fares Gosford and Sydney, HSR fares are assumed to be $14.25 and operational characteristics, the patronage demand for commuters, $26 for non-business travellers and $53 for forecasts suggest that by 2036, 54 million people may use business travellers (one-way in 2011 dollars). Lower fares an HSR network each year. Regional demand represents a for commuters reflect a potential subsidy for these trips. significant component of total patronage, with approximately 50 per cent of travel found to be related to areas outside Forecast patronage demand was found to be sensitive Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne. to changes in HSR fare levels, but less so to changes in air fares, as regional travel demand, of which air travel It is predicted that approximately eight million passengers is a relatively small component, would be less affected. could travel on a HSR network between Sydney and Patronage was also found to be sensitive to HSR travel Melbourne in 2036, and 3.5 million passengers between time, with mainly inter-city travel affected, due to the close Brisbane and Sydney in 2036. This equates to approximately competition with air. half of the projected air market for both sectors in 2036. These forecasts assume inter-city HSR fares comparable The study confirmed that inter-city non-stop running times with inter-city air fares. could be approximately: • Three hours between Brisbane and Sydney and Sydney and Melbourne. • Forty minutes between Newcastle and Sydney. • One hour between Sydney and Canberra. Key project parameters Key project parameters for the phase 1 study included: • Economic analysis assumed an appraisal period of 20 years from 2036, being an indicative operational year for an HSR network. • The network infrastructure would be a double-track standard-gauge electrified line with maximum operating speed of 200 km/h within urban areas and 350 km/h elsewhere. • Services would initially be operated by eight car sets with the potential for train size to be increased to 12 or 16 cars as required by patronage demand, and would be a mixture of inter-city express services and regional services stopping at intermediate stations. • Non-stop travel times between the major centres would depend on the precise alignment selected but would typically be around three hours between Brisbane and Sydney and Sydney and Melbourne and 40 minutes between Newcastle and Sydney. • The patronage forecasts allowed for accessibility of HSR stations, as well as the relative costs, travel times and service frequencies of alternative modes. • Non urban stations would serve major regional centres, either directly or as parkway stations. These would typically be at intervals of 70 to 100 kilometres, although closer spacing is likely if sections also carry outer- suburban regional services. • Access from the urban boundary to city centre stations in major metropolitan areas would largely be through dedicated tunnel. • HSR fares were assumed to be similar on average to current inter-city air fares, air travel times were assumed to be similar to current times, and HSR service frequencies were assumed to be hourly or better, depending on route and service type. • Commuter demand modelling for the Newcastle to Sydney corridor was based on fares of $16.50 and $14.25 for Newcastle to Sydney and Gosford to Sydney respectively (one-way in 2011 dollars). Lower fares for commuters reflect a potential subsidy for these trips. High Speed Rail Study – Phase 1
- 10. vi AECOM | Grimshaw | KPMG | SKM Overview of study methodology Growth in commuting demand was then projected as a function of the future population growth projections in Patronage demand forecasting the corridor and growth in employment in Sydney and Parramatta. A model of commuter mode choice in the A base corridor was used to predict patronage of a HSR corridor was developed to estimate diversion to HSR network in 2036, based on forecast travel demand and services. assumptions about competing modes. The presence of a HSR service to Sydney could substantially An east coast model and a Newcastle to Sydney model improve the accessibility of Sydney’s employment to were developed to address the following questions: the workforce resident in the corridor, encouraging a • What are the main geographical markets in the east larger proportion of the workforce to commute to Sydney coast corridor that a HSR network could potentially (or Parramatta). A model of the relationship between serve? this propensity to commute and accessibility has been • What is the size of these markets and how are they developed using the evidence of current commuting split between alternative transport modes (car, rail, propensities in the corridor (derived from the Census). coach and air)? Model outputs were benchmarked against international • How would these markets grow in future? HSR systems and previous Australian HSR studies. • What is the potential for diversion from existing modes Corridor appraisal to a future HSR network? Long-list corridors were identified within the study area to • How sensitive is the level of that diversion to HSR enable a broad comparison between, for example inland performance and to the future scenarios? corridors and coastal corridors. These were selected on the basis of: The east coast model was designed to estimate market size and mode share from the National Visitors Survey, • Long-distance travel demand characteristics, including which includes business and non-business trips over 50 towns and cities linked by air routes. These centres kilometres between the main cities and the towns in the include coastal cities in northern NSW and inland corridor, but excludes commuting trips. cities through southern NSW and northern Victoria. Travel demand growth was projected as a function of future • Existing transport corridors, as they tend to link population growth in the corridor and income growth, based regional cities and towns. These are broadly the New on techniques used by Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport England and Pacific Highways through northern NSW, and Regional Economics (BITRE). Models of mode choice and the Hume and Princes Highways through southern and induced travel were developed using a combination NSW and Victoria. of international and local evidence to estimate diversion • Corridors considered in previous HSR studies to provide to HSR services and the induced travel brought about by a comparison using current population, patronage consequent improvements in accessibility. demand, environmental and engineering information. The Newcastle to Sydney model had a similar form to the • Major road and rail projects to identify potential east coast model, but focussed on commuting travel. synergies for inter-operability, congestion relief or Estimates of the market size and mode shares were shared use of corridors. derived from the 2006 National Population Census. High Speed Rail Study – Phase 1
- 11. AECOM | Grimshaw | KPMG | SKM vii An initial appraisal assessed long-list corridors qualitatively Cost estimation against a number of criteria: potential development Costs have been estimated to enable the comparison benefits, potential connectivity with other transport of various corridor and station options (together with systems, land use and environment impacts, potential economic benefits and other factors). They have been future population catchment, and indicative capital costs. based on the strategic information available at this Poorly performing corridors were excluded from further stage of the study only and a probability assessment has analysis, while the best performing were taken forward to been undertaken to confirm a confidence range for the a medium-list. estimates. A largely quantitative appraisal of the medium-list corridors Some cost issues, such as timing or prioritisation of was undertaken to identify a short-list. This analysis was corridors, are common to all options and have therefore undertaken on corridors from city centre to city centre been excluded from the appraisal. Costs were also (including city access corridors). The appraisal compared considered to be comparative against a base option, corridors against a base corridor for each segment of the rather than absolute against a without-HSR scenario. study area using four criteria: land use and environmental These issues are expected to be considered in phase 2 of impacts; costs and benefits; social, economic and regional the study. development; and policy and strategy fit. Costs for the comparative assessment of medium- Station appraisal list corridors were estimated using quantities for representative alignments and unit prices developed Four types of HSR station have been identified: ‘city from actual construction project data. Station costs were centre’, ‘city-peripheral’, ‘regional’ and ‘airport’. City estimated on the basis of predicted size, construction centre and peripheral stations serve the city and wider method and physical location. It was necessary to use a metropolitan areas, while regional stations connect range of assumptions in preparing these cost estimates, regional communities to each other and the capital cities. due to the strategic level of information available for Airport stations could provide access to air services for potential corridors and stations. Risk associated with these HSR passengers. assumptions has been considered using probabilistic For each capital city, a long-list of possible city centre and estimation techniques. city-peripheral stations (and associated access corridors) was identified based on market proximity, transport capacity, surface land use and environmental impact. Potential city centre HSR stations were assessed qualitatively to identify a medium-list, with further analysis and assessment undertaken to identify a short-list of stations. Potential regional and parkway stations were identified on the basis of likely patronage demand to regional areas. High Speed Rail Study – Phase 1
- 12. viii AECOM | Grimshaw | KPMG | SKM Further issues for consideration Scope of phase 2 While this study has recommended a study area for phase The second phase of the study will build on the first, but 2, it has identified five key issues that need to be resolved will be considerably broader and deeper in scope2. On to refine route alignments further: the basis of detailed investigations and analysis, relevant • The Newcastle to Sydney corridor (Appendix A) international experience and the appraisal of alternatives, has significant topographical and environmental the second phase will be required to provide advice on: constraints. In addition, existing road and rail links • The medium- to long-term projected travel market. are congested, particularly for rail freight. The • HSR system options that could serve the projected population of this region is forecast to grow, placing travel market effectively. additional pressures on the transport system. There • The aggregate and segmented travel demand and are several options for integrating HSR services with market shares that could be expected to be attained. the conventional inter-urban services which need to be examined in more detail. • Preferred corridor, alignment, transport product(s) and system specification. • HSR access to Sydney’s CBD could be directly to a terminus within this vicinity, or indirectly through a • The optimum program for staging the physical terminus in either Parramatta or Homebush (combined construction of the preferred HSR system. with urban rail services). The analysis in this study • The specific environmental, social, urban and indicates significant differences in the capital cost and regional development and economic impacts of the travel demand of these two options, with a HSR station recommended HSR program, and the overall net cost in Parramatta potentially reducing patronage demand or benefit of those impacts to Australia. by 10 per cent. Further analysis is required to confirm • The nature and cost of complementary access projects the preferred location of a HSR station in Sydney, and and their contribution to achieving the assessed the potential for integrating existing and proposed performance of the HSR program. urban rail services with HSR. • The financing needs, financial performance and • Wollongong and the Illawarra Region have a significant commercial viability of the HSR program. population that may benefit from HSR services. • Any commercial financing gap and ways of funding However, the surrounding terrain makes the provision such gap. of HSR infrastructure challenging and a corridor directly serving Wollongong is likely to have more significant • The key risks to the HSR program and its successful environmental impacts than an inland corridor via performance, the implications of these risks and the Southern Highlands. Further engineering and possible mitigation measures, if any. environmental appraisal is required to confirm the • The most appropriate institutional framework for preferred alignment in this region. governance, planning, procurement, construction • The phase 1 study has identified an access corridor in and operation of the HSR program and for the Melbourne which passes close to Melbourne Airport. implementation of integrated urban and regional While HSR services will not provide suitable Airport Rail development policies in the HSR corridor. Link services, there are potential synergies from the • An effective implementation plan for creating the joint use of an access corridor and infrastructure by HSR recommended institutional framework and delivering and the proposed Airport Rail Link services between the HSR program. Melbourne’s Tullamarine airport and the city’s CBD. • This study has identified a corridor following the Federal Highway as the most suitable access corridor to Canberra, with relatively low environmental impacts, lower costs and a good strategic fit with planning frameworks. To the south and west, the corridor should follow an alignment serving the Riverina and Albury- Wodonga. These two corridors could be used to access Canberra in a ‘through’ or ‘spur’ configuration. These alternate configurations would affect the length of corridor through Canberra, the form of HSR station and may require a HSR junction to the north of Canberra. Further operational and engineering analysis is recommended in phase 2 to examine the impacts of these configurations on HSR patronage demand and costs. 2 Request for expression of interest for the second phase of a strategic study into the implementation of a high speed rail network on the east coast of Australia, Department of Infrastructure and Transport, June 2011. High Speed Rail Study – Phase 1
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