Horizon scanning slides from SCL webinars April 2014
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This document discusses trends and predictions for digital technology over the next 5-10 years and their implications for libraries. Key points include: - Internet speeds and access will continue improving but divergence between areas will remain an issue. Digital services will become more common but support for non-users will be needed. - Software and data analysis will get smarter, automating more work and improving customer experiences. New types of low-cost hardware will empower more people to create. - E-books will take a larger market share but printed books will still have value. There is uncertainty around e-book platforms and how libraries can develop credible options. - Computer science education is increasing in importance but schools need support providing tools and resources
Horizon scanning slides from SCL webinars April 2014
- 1. Digital Leadership for Libraries Preliminary Findings April 2014
- 2. Looking ahead: 5-10 years • A long time in technology terms • Iphone released in 2007 – now 500m sold, 1.5bn smartphones in total • DARPA driverless vehicle challenge in 2004 – a complete failure. But by 2012, Google announced driverless cars had driven 300,000 miles on US roads.
- 3. Two types of trend • Technological: easier to predict, based on long-term market dynamics • Human / social: harder to predict, based on individual and organisational decisions
- 4. Internet speeds will continue to increase
- 5. But divergence between areas will remain an issue
- 6. Access will continue to improve
- 7. Access will continue to improve
- 8. Digital by default will force many non- users to access public services online • Libraries already an important route for individuals to access public services online (e.g. registering for school places) but offline or face to face remains an option • JobMatch and Universal Credit represent next stage of development with no offline option • So what happens when “digital by default” meets “digital divide”? • Who provides that support?
- 9. Software will continue to get smarter • More computing power plus cheaper sensors and transmitters means more and more human work can be automated or computer- assisted. • E.g.: – Automated sports news writing – Legal document search – Accountancy
- 10. MOOCs open new opportunities for learning • (Massively Open Online Courses) • A large number of platforms already • Coursera and EdX have 6.3m users between them • Many currently free but experimenting with charging and certification options • Not clear what the potential is for offline support of online courses
- 11. (EdX – founded by MIT and Harvard)
- 12. Big Data creates new opportunities to improve customer experience • Use of large datasets to develop deep insights into users / customers / processes • E.g.: – UPS used data from trucks to redesign its driver routes - reduced fuel usage by 1.5m gallons in 2012 – Insurers using more detailed data to tailor premiums to risk – NHS big data…watch this space!
- 13. New types of hardware enable people to become makers / programmers • The balance between individuals as consumers and creators • 3D printers now available for less than £500 • LEGO Mindstorms provides simple set of tools for young people to learn ‘real world’ industrial robotics • Raspberry Pi is a cheap single-board computer for learning basic coding • These technologies will become cheaper and more accessible over the next 5-10 years • …A new era of “Good Life” self-sufficiency?
- 14. E-books will take larger share of the market – but printed books will remain Amazon Sales (2012)
- 15. There is a lot of uncertainty about future e-book platforms • Library e-book services are clearly sub-optimal – physical book remains superior format for many, too much fragmentation, DRM and format issues. • What role for private e-book lenders? (think Spotify / Netflix) • Can libraries develop a credible platform (e.g. BBC Iplayer)
- 16. E-books open up new opportunities • Self publishing • Shorter and longer formats • Local content • Mixed media – mixing text with pictures, audio, video, games. • Examples already – e.g. HarperCollins enhanced E-books – but not clear if this is a major trend
- 17. Computer science revival in education • High status jobs are those which create technology rather than utilise technology • But we lost our way with ICT in schools "Your IT curriculum focuses on teaching how to use software, but gives no insight into how it's made. That is just throwing away your great computing heritage” Eric Schmidt, Google • EU “app economy” accounts for 1.8 million jobs, and 5 million by 2018 • New computer science curriculum - Sept 2014 • But schools are struggling, plus children will need tools and support outside school too
- 18. Text will remain important but video will be used more for accessing info • Reading remains the fastest way to process information • But video requires less effort and is more engaging • Video is now accessible across a range of topics • The same challenges of accessing reliable / quality information remain
- 19. Some early conclusions… • Significant technological change • New opportunities: access to learning, streamlining operations, access to hardware. • But also major challenges – books will not disappear but now part of a much broader mix of information media • A contradiction? Digital reduces the need for physical space – but physical / local space is the USP • Libraries need a vision for how to use digital services and what this means for the existing service mix – this includes a national level offer
Editor's Notes
- #3: http://www.emarketer.com/Article/Smartphone-Users-Worldwide-Will-Total-175-Billion-2014/1010536
- #7: ….but there will continue to be many who have never used the internet
- #8: ….but there will continue to be many who have never used the internet
- #10: Also more complex tasks (e.g. driving) will be automatedOxford Study – 47% of US employment could be automated within two decadesAutomation is about helping humans perform remaining tasks more effectively as much as just replacing jobs
- #11: About 2.5 times as many students as currently studying at UK universities
- #12: MIT and Harvard