How to Build an Early Warning System to Harness Predictability and Win in the Market
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The document is a summary of a webinar on building an early warning system to gain predictability in the market. It discusses how to practically implement early warning systems using examples from consumer packaged goods. Key elements include identifying innovation signatures through patterns of preceding events, mapping supply chains to find signals, and designing a system with multiple time horizons to forecast events. The goal is to tie insights to resource allocation and strategic planning processes.
How to Build an Early Warning System to Harness Predictability and Win in the Market
- 1. How to Build an Early Warning System to Harness Predictability and Win in the Market A Complimentary Webinar from Aurora WDC 12:00 Noon Eastern /// Wednesday 12 June 2013 ~ featuring ~ Nat Brooks The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Arik Johnson Powered by
- 2. Principal of Strategy Shapers LLC, Nat Brooks brings 25 years of Fortune 500 management experience to the work of helping clients create world class market and competitive intelligence, and winning business strategies. From 2005 to 2012 Nat built Procter & Gamble’s Competitive Intelligence organization, which today is an 850 member global community of practice responsible for competitive analysis, early warning, tech. intelligence and strategic analysis. A recognized leader in competitive strategy in the consumer packaged goods industry, Nat was a member of P&G’s prestigious CFO Circle. Nat has also mentored competitive and market intelligence leaders at firms such as Newell Rubbermaid, Cintas, Brown-Forman and NatBrooks@strategyshapers.com Pella Window. Nat’s affiliations include: (513) 274-8527 • • • • Aurora WDC G2 Program SCIP (Strategy & Competitive Intelligence Professionals) The Conference Board’s Competitive Intelligence Council Advisory Board Fuld-Gilad-Herring Academy of CI The Intelligence Collaborative is the online learning and networking community powered by Aurora WDC, our clients, partners and other friends and dedicated to exploring how to apply intelligence methods to solve real-world business problems. Apply for a free 30-day trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com or learn more about Aurora at http://AuroraWDC.com – see you next time! The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
- 3. Questions, Commentary & Content α α α α The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Use the Questions pane on your GoToWebinar control panel and all questions will be answered in the second half of the hour. You are welcome to tweet any comments on Twitter where we are monitoring the hashtag #IntelCollab or eavesdrop via http://tweetchat.com/room/IntelCollab Slides will be available after the webinar for embedding and sharing via http://slideshare.net/IntelCollab To view the recording and download the PPT file, please register for a trial membership at http://IntelCollab.com. Powered by
- 4. Agenda Early Warning - Beyond theory to practical execution What How-to Examples of success Harnessing the power of early warning Discussion The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
- 5. Is Early Warning Possible? The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
- 6. Strategic Early Warning Concepts Gilad / Shell / etc Macro Environment Change Drivers Identify Risks Complex … Important … NOT always practical Analyze Risks Monitor Indicators Social Response to Risks Management Action Political Environmental Strategy & Action Technology Economic Signals & Signposts Global Scenarios The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Focused Scenarios Alerts & Reports Industry Structure Review Powered by
- 7. 14 January 2014 The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab 7 Powered by
- 8. Strategic versus Tactical? You have to win battles if you want to choose future battlefields! The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
- 9. Crystal Ball Roadmap NetOps Based on Company Goals/Motivations DIRECTV mosaics, “Active” Networks offer download of 1yr old shows DIRECTV interactive NFL, Fantasy Football DIRECTV music juke box Other InterVideo PC HD/BR DVD App EPG Apple STB w/DVD burner 2009: Unidir. Cable Shutoff Tivo CableCARD TBD Google Online Video Search iTunes adds music videos Tivo Tahiti Sony PS3 2007 TBD Google Video Search adds TV iTunes Video Store Yahoo buys iFilm OpenCable devices begin shipping Comcast Tivo DVR 2006 MS 2005 Scientific Atlanta guide searches content on network PC Analog Cable Shutoff Comcast buys Real CE ship HD DVD, BluRay Guideworks VRN/ mosaic guide (integrated IPG +VOD) Comcast/Tivo aggregates web video DIRECTV media center ships Comcast begins digital simulcast Studios create new release window for downloads TBD Google Video Search adds Movies Mac Mini Media Center, Video iPod Yahoo signs content deals Crystal Ball Limitations • Feel good about the “if” but not necessarily the “when” – – • Probably has the correct general points Probably has the time wrong Alternate options possible The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by 2008 TBD
- 10. Where Early Warning Can Work? High(er) purchase frequency Frequent propositional changes Intense jockeying (high marketing & promotion levels) High contract turnover & poaching Seasonality Other … The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
- 11. Industry Structure ENABLES Early Warning Consumer Packaged Goods Example Sold through retailers and distributors ‘Packaged’ … which entails supply chain requirements / constraints Marketed heavily through mass media Promoted by limited and consistent methods Heavily reliant of “new and improved” variants and claims BUT most categories are not terribly “new” Products, packages and ingredients often regulated Others… The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
- 12. Industry Structure ENABLES Early Warning Consumer Packaged Goods Example The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
- 13. Mgmt Disciplines ENABLE Early Warning Low Cost, Low Defect, Repeatability … Lean Six Sigma Other TQ methods (IWS, TPM, etc.) Stage Gate project management methods ISO 9000 and other quality control methods MRP and ERP systems and protocols The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
- 14. Early Warning System Design CI/MI should lead Multi-functional participation required Works very well as a team activity Defined output … a forecast Output MUST be tied to company’s resource allocation / planning process The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
- 15. Early Warning System Design > +12 Months Patents Alliances / agreements Conference papers Investments Capital projects Third party chatter Recruiting efforts Etc. +9-12 Months Trademarks Permits Trade shows Third party chatter Official announcements Etc. +6-9 Months Trademarks Sales chatter Registrations Contracts Allowances Import/export Etc. Event(s) Detailed analysis Likely next moves Market impact Etc. Building from core Intelligence work The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Competitor profiles (e.g., battle cards) Various pattern analyses Supply chain analysis Financial analysis Etc., etc. Powered by
- 16. Early Warning System Design > +12 Months Patents Alliances / agreements Conference papers Investments Capital projects Third party chatter Recruiting efforts Etc. +9-12 Months Trademarks Permits Trade shows Third party chatter Official announcements Etc. +6-9 Months Trademarks Sales chatter Registrations Contracts Allowances Import/export Etc. Event(s) Detailed analysis Likely next moves Market impact Etc. Building from core Intelligence work The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Competitor profiles (e.g., battle cards) Various pattern analyses Supply chain analysis Financial analysis Etc., etc. Powered by
- 17. Key Element: Innovation Signatures Innovation Signature – pinpoints the signposts that precede product introductions 2 October, 2006 12 June, 2007 R&D Partnership Signed New Plant Announced 12 December, 2007 Environmental Registration 20 January, 2008 Design Registration 6 August, 2008 Trademark Filing Jul 1, 2006 4 May, 2007 Patent Publication 27 October, 2007 New Supplier Partnership 13 April, 2008 6 October, 2008 Plant Local News Article Test Market Starts 13 January, 2009 "Announced" to Analysts Jul 1, 2009 31 March, 2009 Trade Announcement Launches are Project Managed (e.g., through Stage-Gate Processes) and for specific types of projects there is a “signature” trail of preceding events with “signature” lead times – the data is out there for recent launches to build the pattern!* The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
- 18. Key Element: Launch Patterns The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
- 19. Key Element: Supply Chain Mapping Henkel Slovensko spol. Sr. o. Brastislava, Nove Mesto nad Vahom Slovakia F&HC(MMSU): 0.7 Mkt Entry: 1990 Ownership: 100% Local production: Persil, Perwoll, Palmex, Rex, Dato, Azur, Sil Imports: Silan Henkel Easti Estonia F&HC(MMSU): 0.1 Mkt Entry: NA Ownership: 100% Imports: Persil, Rex, Silan, Pur *No local production Henkel Latvia Latvia F&HC(MMSU): 0.1 Mkt Entry: NA Ownership: NA Imports: Persil,Rex, Silan, Pur *No local production HENKEL Corporate Presence Henkel Lithuania Lithuania F&HC(MMSU): 0.1 Mkt Entry: NA Ownership: NA Imports: Persil,Rex, Silan, Pur *No local production Henkel CR.Spol. Sro Prague Czech Rep F&HC(MMSU): 1.0 Mkt Entry: 1994 Ownership: 100% Imports: Persil, Palmex, Rex, Dato, Azur, Sil, Silan *No local production No Local Production Henkel Russia Tosno, Engels, Perm Russia F&HC(MMSU): 10.2 Mkt Entry: 1992 Ownership: Era:95.5%, Engels:100%, Perm:84% Local production: Persil, Losk, Deni, Permos Henkel Magyarorszag. Kft Budapest, Szolnock, Korosladany, Vac, Barcs Hungary F&HC(MMSU): 2.3 Mkt Entry: 1987 Ownership: 100% Local production: Persil,Tomi Kristaly , Perwoll, Rex Imports: Silan Henkel Polska Warsaw:Raciborcz Poland F&HC(MMSU): 2.8 Mkt Entry: 1991 Ownership: 98% Local production: Persil, Perwoll, Rex, Orion Imports: Somat, Silan Kiev 3rd Party Distributors Kazakhstan F&HC(MMSU): 0.2 Mkt Entry: 2000 Ownership: NA Imports: Persil, Deny *No local production Henkel Slovenija d.o.o Maribor Slovenia F&HC(MMSU): 0.7 Mkt Entry:1990 Ownership: 100% Imports: Persil, Rex, W.Reisse,Perwoll, Silan *No local production Henkel Croatia d.o.o. Zagreb Croatia F&HC(MMSU):0.2 Mkt Entry: 1994 Ownership: 100% Imports: Persil, Rex, W.Reisse, Perwoll, Silan *No local production Local Production Albania Imports: W.Reisse, Dixan *No local production Henkel Rep Office Skopje Sarajevo Bosnia&Herzegovina F&HC(MMSU): 0.1 Mkt Entry: NA Ownership: NA Imports: Persil, Rex, W.Reisse, Silan *No local production The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Henkel Jugoslabia Belgrade Serbia F&HC(MMSU): 0.01 Mkt Entry:NA Ownership: NA Imports: Persil, Pril *No local production Turk Henkel Izmir, Gebze Turkey F&HC(MMSU): 2.9 Mkt Entry: 1956 Ownership: 100% Local production: Persil, Tursil, Perwoll, Vernel Imports: Fasa Henkel Bulgaria Sofia Bulgaria F&HC(MMSU):0.2 Mkt Entry: 1998 Ownership: NA Imports: Persil, Rex, Dixan, Silan, W.Reisse, Perwoll, *No local production Henkel Rumania Bucharest Romania F&HC(MMSU): 0.7 Mkt Entry:1994 Ownership: 100% Imports: Persil, Perwoll, Rex *No local production Henkel UZHGORD Uzhorod, Kiev Ukraine F&HC(MMSU): 0.1 Mkt Entry: 1999 Ownership: 100% Local production: Persil, Losk, Rex Central Europe North Central Europe South Balkan Markets Eastern Europe Turkey/Cauc. Central Asian Reps Powered by
- 20. Critical Output: Accurate Forecasts One company’s experience… 40 Teams in place 20 Product categories Semi-annual forecasts 80+% accuracy +/one quarter Expanding beyond product changes to include commercial activities The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
- 21. Harnessing the Power of Early Warning What can you gain from knowing? Time to think Time to prepare Time to react Time to pre-empt Time to lead Time to work on other stuff Even time to RELAX! The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab TIME = Powered by
- 22. Harnessing the Power of Early Warning REACT Raise competitor’s costs! PRE-EMPT Raise competitor’s stakes! LEAD Change rules of the game! The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
- 23. Some Closing Thoughts … Favor the Tactical … Enable the Strategic Goal: Create time and space to maneuver Always recommend next moves / maneuvers Early Warning requires other work products (e.g., competitor analysis) and generates new ones (e.g., war games) Early Warning could be your single most important intelligence product! The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by
- 24. Thank you! Now how about a little Q&A? NatBrooks@strategyshapers.com (513) 274-8527 The Intelligence Collaborative http://IntelCollab.com #IntelCollab Powered by